Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

Massive lorry queues throughout the UK at the likes of Hollyhead and the Eurotunnel the last few days. With the lack of clarity around any deal there's a massive movement of goods before any potential changes kick in over the new year.

In one way, this is a good thing as it means that there will be far fewer vehicles at the ports during the first few days of next year, so reducing any chaos that is likely to ensue.

hirondelle

dogbert27 wrote: »

While we see it for what it is this is how it's been spun with "Busy Lizzie" the darling of 58 trade deals :rolleyes:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9065441/SIMON-WALTERS-Busy-Lizzie-turned-party-joke-darling-58-trade-deals.html

Don't forget she is also the Comeback Kid. That was difficult to read. Sure, they'll hardly miss the EU at all with all this winning. Think of it- cheaper soy sauce for all in the UK. Huzzah.

dogbert27

lawred2 wrote: »

"In recent months, however, she has been busy making them eat their words by signing trade deals with 58 non-EU countries."

The language is so ugly and confrontational

And blatantly wrong as they are existing deals that are continuing and while it is with 58 countries, there are only 40 deals.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842

While it was an EU member, the UK was automatically part of about 40 trade deals which the EU had with more than 70 countries. In 2018, these deals represented about 11% of total UK trade.

So far, 29 of these existing deals, covering 58 countries or territories, have been rolled over and will start on 1 January 2021. The latest deal to be struck was with Mexico on 15 December.

timetogo1

dogbert27 wrote: »

In 2018, these deals represented about 11% of total UK trade.

That's an interesting stat. I hadn't seen it before. It makes sense I suppose. Most of the UKs trade will be with the EU. But it's another example to make me go "wtf are they doing".

Sam Russell

timetogo1 wrote: »

That's an interesting stat. I hadn't seen it before. It makes sense I suppose. Most of the UKs trade will be with the EU. But it's another example to make me go "wtf are they doing".

We know what they are doing.

The real question is Why. They cannot at this stage see any upside to Brexit, and consequently should be looking for Brino solutions, but instead introduce the IMB and threaten gunboats.

What possible benefit can they gain from this childish behaviour? Why poke the bear?

swampgas

Sam Russell wrote: »

We know what they are doing.

The real question is Why. They cannot at this stage see any upside to Brexit, and consequently should be looking for Brino solutions, but instead introduce the IMB and threaten gunboats.

What possible benefit can they gain from this childish behaviour? Why poke the bear?

It's also really hard to know who "they" are ... it's like Game of Thrones in the UK, with factions within factions, and shadowy figures in the background manipulating everyone they can.

It's impossible to know who might be influencing the MPs, the ministers, and the prime minister. The UK is currently being run in a very opaque and corrupt way.

Lumen

swampgas wrote: »

It's also really hard to know who "they" are ... it's like Game of Thrones in the UK, with factions within factions, and shadowy figures in the background manipulating everyone they can.

It's impossible to know who might be influencing the MPs, the ministers, and the prime minister. The UK is currently being run in a very opaque and corrupt way.

It's pretty straightforward. The show is being run by anti-EU hard brexit nutjobs. Remember that prior to the last GE, 21 Tory "rebels" opposed to no deal were kicked out the party, replaced by candidates favourable to the hard line. And then Labour got a kicking in the GE, resulting in a House stuffed with hardliners and sycophants.

There is no strategy beyond the hardest possible Brexit/most independent GB (delete as appropriate). There is no significant public support for this but the die is cast.

swampgas

Lumen wrote: »

It's pretty straightforward. The show is being run by anti-EU hard brexit nutjobs. Remember that prior to the last GE, 21 Tory "rebels" opposed to no deal were kicked out the party, replaced by candidates favourable to the hard line. And then Labour got a kicking in the GE, resulting in a House stuffed with hardliners and sycophants.

There is no strategy beyond the hardest possible Brexit/most independent GB (delete as appropriate). There is no significant public support for this but the die is cast.

Sure, but to figure out whether Johnson will go for a deal or not is not so easy. I agree that the EU-haters have a lot of influence, but just how much they will succeed in trashing any possible relationship with the EU remains to be seen.

I think the most influential Brexiteers see the EU as an existential threat to their way of life and to their influence. To them Brexit is about geopolitical hegemony. It's for that reason, assuming they maintain their influence over the government, that I expect a hard Brexit, and deliberate provocation of the EU to keep the relationship as antagonistic as possible, with no deal emerging in the new year and a swerve towards cementing the UK's position outside the EU's influence regardless of the impact on the people at large.

I hope I'm wrong (and I often am!) but that's my reading of the tea leaves for now.

CelticRambler

Lumen wrote: »

There is no strategy beyond the hardest possible Brexit/most independent GB (delete as appropriate). There is no significant public support for this but the die is cast.

More to the point: there is no significant public opposition to this, leaving the way clear for anyone who wishes to take advantage of the situation to manipulate it to their own advantage.

For some, such as the SNP, that's a relatively benign push for independence; for others though - those puppetmasters in the shadows - there are undoubtedly more sinister motives or outcomes in play.

swampgas wrote: »

I expect a hard Brexit, and deliberate provocation of the EU to keep the relationship as antagonistic as possible, with no deal emerging in the new year and a swerve towards cementing the UK's position outside the EU's influence regardless of the impact on the people at large.

At this stage in the process, I'm inclined to agree with this prediction. With the LibDems essentially eviscerated and Labour more concerned with picking fluff out of their navel than the good of the country, I don't believe there'll be any concerted political effort to fight that provocation until the next GE campaign at the very earliest - but given the public apathy, I wouldn't be surprised if there's no movement in this regard in England until both Scotland and NI have left the Kingdom and re-joined the EU.

yagan

On the question of who benefits from Brexit I think from our own history we understand the British better than the English do.

The English have been manipulated by a ruling class who've always had their lifeboats ready. Brexit just may be the final exploitation of what's left of an empire that was an enrichment vehicle for grandees for centuries. Even if it completely undermines their security this parasitic class know only how to greedily impoverish England just as they starved Ireland, Prussia, India etc..

There's enough for all of us on this earth, but never enough for one person's greed.

Detritus70

It seems Brexit is run by people who are aware of the concept of Perfidious Albion and think it is a guide to international relations.

Leroy42

Both Gove and Frost have stated previously that the overall aim is the dismantling of the EU, with I presume a replacement headed up by the UK.

But however they see the future, they are ideologically opposed to the EU and as such any concession is seen under the prism is giving in to the enemy, of facilitating the continued existence of the EU.

Thats why, IMO, they come out with the statements they do. This isn't a negotiation where thevUK appreciate the EU position. They completely reject that the EU should have a position.

Logic doesn't come into it. They see this as just a first step, and therefore tying themselves into deals is only asking for trouble later on.

Its why I think the EU are playing a very dangerous, but understandable, game.

I trust they understand where the UK are coming from, that all the rhetoric about 'friends and neighbours ' is meaningless and this is a clear threat to the EU.

I have no reason to think they don't, but I worry that in the rush to secure a deal, agreements will be made that end up causing far greater problems for the EU than they solve

yagan

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its why I think the EU are playing a very dangerous, but understandable, game.

There's nothing dangerous about the EU protecting its own interests and it's not a game, Brexit far more serious than that when starvation in the UK could become a reality.

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

In one way, this is a good thing as it means that there will be far fewer vehicles at the ports during the first few days of next year, so reducing any chaos that is likely to ensue.

Get the Chaos in early?

I hate to think about how many of those trucks are carrying fresh fruit and veg that is going spoil on the side of the road, the waste of food, the costs for small businesses all needless that will result in real world suffering, job losses, business closures, price increases for struggling families etc

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Both Gove and Frost have stated previously that the overall aim is the dismantling of the EU, with I presume a replacement headed up by the UK.

But however they see the future, they are ideologically opposed to the EU and as such any concession is seen under the prism is giving in to the enemy, of facilitating the continued existence of the EU.

Thats why, IMO, they come out with the statements they do. This isn't a negotiation where thevUK appreciate the EU position. They completely reject that the EU should have a position.

Logic doesn't come into it. They see this as just a first step, and therefore tying themselves into deals is only asking for trouble later on.

Its why I think the EU are playing a very dangerous, but understandable, game.

I trust they understand where the UK are coming from, that all the rhetoric about 'friends and neighbours ' is meaningless and this is a clear threat to the EU.

I have no reason to think they don't, but I worry that in the rush to secure a deal, agreements will be made that end up causing far greater problems for the EU than they solve

100% : they are not "Eurosceptics" at all. I would describe them as nihilistic Europhobes and nationalists who wish to destroy the EU.

But I think the EU are fully aware of this and are on to them. I've read recently that they have many options to retaliate if the UK starts to renege on the trade deal.

Brussels Sprout

Strazdas wrote: »

100% : they are not "Eurosceptics" at all. I would describe them as nihilistic Europhobes and nationalists who wish to destroy the EU.

But I think the EU are fully aware of this and are on to them. I've read recently that they have many options to retaliate if the UK starts to renege on the trade deal.

No better evidence of this than having a look at the Google search results for:

"daily express EU on the brink"

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

Get the Chaos in early?

I hate to think about how many of those trucks are carrying fresh fruit and veg that is going spoil on the side of the road, the waste of food, the costs for small businesses all needless that will result in real world suffering, job losses, business closures, price increases for struggling families etc

Most of the goods being moved now are for January production, JIT brought forward.
Nothing can be done to prepare for chaos caused to perishables transport.

trellheim

Video : Holyhead tailbacks https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1339617107856809988

( note: some of this is due to knock-on effects of the Birkenhead ferry crew coming down with COVID so being rerouted to Holyhead - nevertheless)

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

I worry that in the rush to secure a deal, agreements will be made that end up causing far greater problems for the EU than they solve

The EU doesn't rush to secure a deal. The EU is well used to negotiating trade agreements and very experienced in anticipating the consequences of each and every line of text - hence their reminder that time needs to be given for "legal scrubbing" (and ratification, of course) of anything to which Johnson/Frost might sign their name.

CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

Video : Holyhead tailbacks https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1339617107856809988

... and an ambulance stuck at the tail end of that. Symbolic of the impact so many relatively obscure aspects of Brexit will have on the lives of ordinary people.

That said, late on Tuesday I ordered something from Amazon.co.uk for delivery to France; forecast arrival date with standard delivery from the UK-based marketplace retailer - 22-26 December. It arrived at 13:30 this afternoon! So some freight is zipping through the lines.

Brussels Sprout

CelticRambler wrote: »

That said, late on Tuesday I ordered something from Amazon.co.uk for delivery to France; forecast arrival date with standard delivery from the UK-based marketplace retailer - 22-26 December. It arrived at 13:30 this afternoon! So some freight is zipping through the lines.

I suspect that courier vans can skip those long queues. They only seem to be for trucks. Here's a video that a van driver shot last night doing just that.

https://twitter.com/donnyc1975/status/1339669123903746048

An Ciarraioch

Interestingly, Ireland will be joining the SIS II Schengen police database on New Year's Day, just as the UK leaves - of course, info would presumably be shared if a European national suspected of a crime was thought to have moved between the two countries, but even that would presumably be significantly less access than the UK would have enjoyed up to now:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1218/1185318-eu-security-system/

Sam Russell

Does that signal Ireland moving closer to Schengen? It would necessitate passport checks at NI ports and airports - perhaps that would need a large movement by those who do not like large movements.

trellheim

Does that signal Ireland moving closer to Schengen? It would necessitate passport checks at NI ports and airports - perhaps that would need a large movement by those who do not like large movements.

Never happen in the current political climate and it would in my view be a condition for any future politics to keep a CTA rather than Schengen. The UK will never join schengen

yagan

trellheim wrote: »

Never happen in the current political climate and it would in my view be a condition for any future politics to keep a CTA rather than Schengen. The UK will never join schengen

Actually Britain withdrew the CTA to the Irish Sea during WWII and the decade after, meaning that all from NI had to produce valid travel IDs moving within the UK, so checks are not without precedent.

ElJeffe

CelticRambler wrote: »

... and an ambulance stuck at the tail end of that. Symbolic of the impact so many relatively obscure aspects of Brexit will have on the lives of ordinary people.

That said, late on Tuesday I ordered something from Amazon.co.uk for delivery to France; forecast arrival date with standard delivery from the UK-based marketplace retailer - 22-26 December. It arrived at 13:30 this afternoon! So some freight is zipping through the lines.

The ambulance would be using the hard shoulder with lights and sirens on in an emergency.

I've seen longer tailbacks on the M50 tbh

joe40

yagan wrote: »

Actually Britain withdrew the CTA to the Irish Sea during WWII and the decade after, meaning that all from NI had to produce valid travel IDs moving within the UK, so checks are not without precedent.

Didn't know that, interesting.

CelticRambler

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I suspect that courier vans can skip those long queues.

For now. They can be loaded onto the Shuttle or a ferry alongside domestic/public transport vehicles because there's no reason for them to be diverted into the cargo line - but when they have to present paperwork for every box in the back of the van, it'll be a different story.

There's also quite a difference to be seen between the videos of the approach to Wales/Holyhead and Kent/Dover-Folkestone. The latter is showing the well-established Operation Stack in force which ensures the free flow of non-port/non-freight traffic, but even so it's resulted the closure of the second-last junction before the Tunnel terminal (the one I use :rolleyes: ). In the Holyhead video, where there is no plan in place, all kinds of non-HGV traffic is bound up in the congestion. Should the Dover-Folkestone delays be as bad as some of the predictions, it'll affect traffic using other junctions to get onto the M20, with a knock-on effect on the adjacent A- and B-roads. All the Farage-Garages are quite a distance from the ports, so unless there's some kind of "controlled release" system, there's still plenty of potential for disruption to ordinary Kentish drivers.

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

Never happen in the current political climate and it would in my view be a condition for any future politics to keep a CTA rather than Schengen. The UK will never join Schengen

Of course, but passport checks entering NI from outside the Schengen area would have benefits to NI for the PSNI. Schengen works and has improved security within its area of operation. It has shortcomings but it has been effective.

It would not be necessary for the UK to join, in effect only NI need join and only for identity checks for those entering NI, and the data fed to Dublin. I know, I know.

CelticRambler

yagan wrote: »

Actually Britain withdrew the CTA to the Irish Sea during WWII and the decade after, meaning that all from NI had to produce valid travel IDs moving within the UK, so checks are not without precedent.

And (as I've pointed out before) Britain tried to get rid of it in the 2000s, only relenting in the face of much huffing and puffing by one particular community in NI.

ElJeffe wrote: »

The ambulance would be using the hard shoulder with lights and sirens on in an emergency.

In an emergency, yes; but it's not an emergency - it's just sitting there in the traffic, in the outside lane, with the paramedics clocking up hours looking at the rear end of the car in front. If/when a call comes in, it'll still have to navigate it's way out of that traffic, down to the next exit, and will not be racing down the hard shoulder at 120km/h. It's this kind of creeping inefficiency that'll be characteristic of service provision in post-Brexit British life.