Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

2forjoy

An extension will be agreed . It will be Brexit in name only for about 6 months.
Believe me.

AutoTuning

2forjoy wrote: »

An extension will be agreed . It will be Brexit in name only for about 6 months.
Believe me.

Seems like the only sane thing they could do.

Brexit should have been parked until after COVID was dealt with, even if that meant 2022.

I'm not banking on the current UK government being capable of sane, rational or pragmatic thinking though. So I'm certainly not counting on any kind of soft landing.

Strazdas

2forjoy wrote: »

An extension will be agreed . It will be Brexit in name only for about 6 months.
Believe me.

The UK cannot remain in the Single Market after midnight on New Year's Eve, BRINO is impossible.

If there was to be come sort of technical waiver on goods maybe, but they will still be fully outside the SMCU for most things.

Infini

2forjoy wrote: »

An extension will be agreed . It will be Brexit in name only for about 6 months.
Believe me.

Extention Option was burned in June unfortunately. The UK deliberately burned it's bridge on this because they essentially went with a strategy of running down the clock and after doing this repeately it actually could be about to backfire on them spetacularly.

EU parliament has warned of no ratification if they dont agree a deal by tomorrow night.

Basically it's looking like "no deal by accident" due completely and purely to Bollocks Johnson and Tory Incompetence.

Multiple courier's are suspending UK > NI/IRL deliveries in the last day or 2 as well.

Honestly let the UK go off the cliff, I don't wish British People ill but this Tory Goverment and it's enablers, sponsors and leader's need to be made to own their creation and be brought low by it. The only way this will happen is when the veil is lifted from people's eyes and they realise that everything they were told about the EU was lies. All the problems they've had are a result of Tory Incompetence over the year's.

BorneTobyWilde

Both want a deal, both waiting to see who blinks first. Trump is directing it for Boris, sad . Best for EU to walk away, they can handle a no deal easily, UK is fecked without one.

reslfj

Strazdas wrote: »

And Simon Coveney saying tonight the EU will not offer any more concessions on fish. They've gone as far as they're prepared to go.

My TV has shown several persons from our Danish fishing industry arguing for a NoDeal instead of more concessions, when the rumour came out Saturday that more than 18% of quotas were in play.


Lars

PS! I'm sure, the EU will continue to negotiate until hell freezes over, but it will NOT give any more concessions.

fash

AutoTuning wrote: »

So, is that it then? Are we really looking at a no-deal Brexit?

It seems like the coverage of it in the UK has fizzled out this weekend due to the Coronavirus situation having become a lot more serious, but I assume we aren't going to get it over the line by Sunday evening, so the EP won't be able to finalise anything by January 1st.

While a no deal by accident is possible, I think we are passed the point where Johnson can go "No Deal! ™" - i.e. he's been negotiating too long for it to look like anything other than failure/incompetence. I can see how a small amount of no deal chaos helps Johnson - if he is able to ameliorate things, it helps him sell a deal and can be used to discredit those taking a "No Deal" line.

So I must assume that the EU commission has some plan to temporarily implement whatever is agreed - or have a "standstill period" or something.

Wanderer78

Parcel motel suspending its UK addresses, that's the start of it

beggars_bush

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Parcel motel suspending its UK addresses, that's the start of it

I know! And I've plenty of credit with them

murphaph

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Parcel motel suspending its UK addresses, that's the start of it

Parcelwizard ended their virtual address service (the whole point of the business) on the 11th.

Who's left in this space now? Just an post with addresspal? If it stays like that I can imagine which way prices will go.

This Twitter thread suggests there may need to be tariffs on GB -> NI car sales:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Mulk_Lloyd/status/1340411848139653123

CelticRambler

Infini wrote: »

Basically it's looking like "no deal by accident" ...

There's no longer anything accidental about a no-deal outcome. It's been obvious for a while that it's either (a) the sincere wish of the UK ('s shadowy puppetmasters); or (b) going to happen because the UK ('s current adminstration) cannot accept its considerably weakened position on the world stage.

In separate news, one family member in the South-East is breathing a sigh of relief this morning. They'd already decided mid-week to cancel the next stage of their house-move to Shetland, planned for yesterday and today. If they hadn't they'd have found themselves stuck in Carlisle when the almost-independent Scotland shut the border with England. And over here on the continent, the Netherlands is exercising its sovereignty by banning flights from the UK. Nothing to do with Brexit, but somehow symbolic that England is being walled off right at this no-deal moment.

Capt'n Midnight

reslfj wrote: »

My TV has shown several persons from our Danish fishing industry arguing for a NoDeal instead of more concession, when the rumour came out Saturday that more than 18% of quotas were in play.


Lars

PS! I'm sure, the EU will continue to negotiate until hell freezes over, but it will NOT give any more concessions.

At this stage it would not surprise me if the EU made noises about a time limit to agree the concessions or they'll be reduced because of threats from the nations not to rubber stamp a deal.


The gap between what's on offer and the UK taking back full control of it's waters in the face of pre-existing fishing treaties with it's neighbours is about £100m.

Financial services which are totally dependent on EU goodwill as they aren't part of this deal are worth £24bn.

Brinkmanship or the art of the possible ?

PeadarCo

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's no longer anything accidental about a no-deal outcome. It's been obvious for a while that it's either (a) the sincere wish of the UK ('s shadowy puppetmasters); or (b) going to happen because the UK ('s current adminstration) cannot accept its considerably weakened position on the world stage.

I think we need to very careful about saying there are people controlling the UK government. I think this situation is a case of never put down to malice that can be attributed to incompetence. Over the last 4 years or so the UK has been governed increasingly by people with a pathological hatred of the EU, people who genuinely believe the UK has the upper hand, that the UK held all the cards all the other delusional forecasts made by many Brexiters. Given that these beliefs were/are genuinely held however crazy they looked from the outside is it any surprise how bad negotiations have gone for the UK. If the UK leaves without a deal it will be due to pure incompetence and people being blinded by their own ideology. If don't think there's any need to blame actors in the background when Rabb didn’t understand how important the Dover Calais route was to UK trade a few years into the Brexit process. Remember that's the caliber of people governing the UK at the moment.

Sam Russell

PeadarCo wrote: »

I think we need to very careful about saying there are people controlling the UK government. I think this situation is a case of never put down to malice that can be attributed to incompetence. Over the last 4 years or so the UK has been governed increasingly by people with a pathological hatred of the EU, people who genuinely believe the UK has the upper hand, that the UK held all the cards all the other delusional forecasts made by many Brexiters. Given that these beliefs were/are genuinely held however crazy they looked from the outside is it any surprise how bad negotiations have gone for the UK. If the UK leaves without a deal it will be due to pure incompetence and people being blinded by their own ideology. If don't think there's any need to blame actors in the background when Rabb didn’t understand how important the Dover Calais route was to UK trade a few years into the Brexit process. Remember that's the caliber of people governing the UK at the moment.

Raab also admitted that, while Brexit Secretary, that he had not read the Good Friday Agreement at the height of the problem of the NI border. He clearly did not understand the significance of it, and why the EU were so strong on it.

Worse he did not care. Such low lifes should never get close to the levers of power.

listermint

PeadarCo wrote: »

I think we need to very careful about saying there are people controlling the UK government. I think this situation is a case of never put down to malice that can be attributed to incompetence. Over the last 4 years or so the UK has been governed increasingly by people with a pathological hatred of the EU, people who genuinely believe the UK has the upper hand, that the UK held all the cards all the other delusional forecasts made by many Brexiters. Given that these beliefs were/are genuinely held however crazy they looked from the outside is it any surprise how bad negotiations have gone for the UK. If the UK leaves without a deal it will be due to pure incompetence and people being blinded by their own ideology. If don't think there's any need to blame actors in the background when Rabb didn’t understand how important the Dover Calais route was to UK trade a few years into the Brexit process. Remember that's the caliber of people governing the UK at the moment.

That's a handy get out close for something subersively criminal that going on. It blatantly ignores the huge sums of Russian money poured into the conservative party. Same as what went on with he republicans in the US. It avoids johnsons secret trips to parties with the med with the son of Russian KGB agent where johnson left his security detail for dust to get there.

Also him appointing the Same guy to the house of lords.

If you think the entire thing has been a nexus of stupidity then you've been duped.


None of this means there hasn't been handy stupid people along the way but that's a side show.

PeadarCo

listermint wrote: »

That's a handy get out close for something subersively criminal that going on. It blatantly ignores the huge sums of Russian money poured into the conservative party. Same as what went on with he republicans in the US. It avoids johnsons secret trips to parties with the med with the son of Russian KGB agent where johnson left his security detail for dust to get there.

Also him appointing the Same guy to the house of lords.

If you think the entire thing has been a nexus of stupidity then you've been duped.


None of this means there hasn't been handy stupid people along the way but that's a side show.

I don't think it's a handy get out clause. If are shadow figures behind the scenes they have been incredibly incompetent. It's been fairly clear from a early stage in the Brexit process that the whole mess has strengthened the EU in many ways as the costs of leaving have become apparent and even more so in the new year. A compenent figure behind the scenes would have very early on recognised the power difference and planned their negotiation strategy accordingly. They wouldn't have appointed Raab to a promenent position in the UK government. Gove would have gone years ago the minute he failed due his failure to determine the sequence of the Brexit talks. The UK has been governed by people who are not only blinded by ideology but also incompetent. Any organisation smart enough to take control of the UK government in secret would never have put a lot of people into key positions who have proven repeatedly to be incompetent.


I'd agree there is Russian money behind the scenes lobbying for certain things. However it's a massive leap to say Russia or some other foreign actor is controlling the UK government. Remember there is plenty of lobbying going on, on both sides. The influence of the Irish diplomatic service on the EU being a prime example. The other side to this is its not just the UK government, for most of this process Labour has been lead by Corbyn a person with a history of being anti EU. This was a factor in one the vote to leave and fairly rubbish attempt at being an opposition party after the referendum. So your conspiracy has to include both the Labour and Conservative Party. At that stage the conspiracy becomes too big to be reasonable.

So that brings me back to my point never ascribe malice to something that can be blamed on incompetence. We know many of the leading people in the UK government are incompetent, comically some times. We also know that their beliefs about Brexit while having no bearing on reality (at least in my opinion) are genuinely held. They also have a poor understanding of the UK economy as demonstrated spectacularly with their obsession about fishing. When you combine all those elements I don't think it's a surprise that talks are where they are at the moment.

listermint

PeadarCo wrote: »

I don't think it's a handy get out clause. If are shadow figures behind the scenes they have been incredibly incompetent. It's been fairly clear from a early stage in the Brexit process that the whole mess has strengthened the EU in many ways as the costs of leaving have become apparent and even more so in the new year. A compenent figure behind the scenes would have very early on recognised the power difference and planned their negotiation strategy accordingly. They wouldn't have appointed Raab to a promenent position in the UK government. Gove would have gone years ago the minute he failed due his failure to determine the sequence of the Brexit talks. The UK has been governed by people who are not only blinded by ideology but also incompetent. Any organisation smart enough to take control of the UK government in secret would never have put a lot of people into key positions who have proven repeatedly to be incompetent.


I'd agree there is Russian money behind the scenes lobbying for certain things. However it's a massive leap to say Russia or some other foreign actor is controlling the UK government. Remember there is plenty of lobbying going on, on both sides. The influence of the Irish diplomatic service on the EU being a prime example. The other side to this is its not just the UK government, for most of this process Labour has been lead by Corbyn a person with a history of being anti EU. This was a factor in one the vote to leave and fairly rubbish attempt at being an opposition party after the referendum. So your conspiracy has to include both the Labour and Conservative Party. At that stage the conspiracy becomes too big to be reasonable.

So that brings me back to my point never ascribe malice to something that can be blamed on incompetence. We know many of the leading people in the UK government are incompetent, comically some times. We also know that their beliefs about Brexit while having no bearing on reality (at least in my opinion) are genuinely held. They also have a poor understanding of the UK economy as demonstrated spectacularly with their obsession about fishing. When you combine all those elements I don't think it's a surprise that talks are where they are at the moment.

You've failed to address Boris Johnsons relationship and numerous secret meetings.

You've failed to address the large sums put into brexit from Russian donors. Brexit which was successful might I add.

We also have no idea what Cummings did for a wage all those years in Russia.

This isn't some conspiracy these are facts people are happy to write of as coincidence.

Jizique

listermint wrote: »

You've failed to address Boris Johnsons relationship and numerous secret meetings.

You've failed to address the large sums put into brexit from Russian donors. Brexit which was successful might I add.

We also have no idea what Cummings did for a wage all those years in Russia.

This isn't some conspiracy these are facts people are happy to write of as coincidence.

Tufton Street, Matthew Eliot and wife, Taxpayers Alliance also worth a mention; Daniel Hannan and his various links to US think tanks; Singham And his borderless borders etc

Capt'n Midnight

Disaster capitalists too.

And plenty inside and outside of the UK who want the EU to fail.


Like Kennedy's assassination there's no shortage of vested interests who would benefit from no deal.

CelticRambler

PeadarCo wrote: »

I don't think it's a handy get out clause. If are shadow figures behind the scenes they have been incredibly incompetent. It's been fairly clear from a early stage in the Brexit process that the whole mess has strengthened the EU in many ways as the costs of leaving have become apparent and even more so in the new year. A compenent figure behind the scenes would have very early on recognised the power difference and planned their negotiation strategy accordingly.

You're basing your argument on the idea that shadowy figures have failed in their objectives without knowing what their objectives are. If there are unidentified third parties manipulating events in the UK (which is more likely than not, given all the evidence that has come to light since the Referendum) it would be plausible that such parties could have create the circumstances in which a bunch of incompetent fools would take the credit/blame for what's happened to the UK.

We don't know what outcome is/was desired by the shadowy figures that we do know about; all we know is that there's been plenty of money to be made by stringing the process out (with the happy surprise of a Covid pandemic to help) only to end up where we amateurs on this forum way back in the early days said things would end up.

PeadarCo

CelticRambler wrote: »

You're basing your argument on the idea that shadowy figures have failed in their objectives without knowing what their objectives are. If there are unidentified third parties manipulating events in the UK (which is more likely than not, given all the evidence that has come to light since the Referendum) it would be plausible that such parties could have create the circumstances in which a bunch of incompetent fools would take the credit/blame for what's happened to the UK.

We don't know what outcome is/was desired by the shadowy figures that we do know about; all we know is that there's been plenty of money to be made by stringing the process out (with the happy surprise of a Covid pandemic to help) only to end up where we amateurs on this forum way back in the early days said things would end up.

I'm sorry this sounds just like a standard conspiracy theory. You can't even name the shadow figures, their goals and motives. The point about Russian money, one large money being spent on lobbying is nothing new and two there has been Russian money going around London for decades at this stage. The purchase of Chelsea FC back in the early 2000's being a prominent example. There is a very big leap from spending money on lobbying to suddenly controlling the entire UK parliament. And remember there has been no leaks for this alleged conspiracy which if it as big as you say is surprising given the number of people that would have to keep it secret.

The thing is we don't need a conspiracy theory to explain the current situation. A huge portion of Brexiters and a significant portion of the UK population are genuine in their belief that the UK is at least the equal of the EU or even greater and that the UK is entitled to all the benefits of the EU with none of the costs for example. Remember so far any failure has been blamed on the person making the decision not "believing" in Brexit. Not that the fact the entire premise was wrong. I'll highlight again Raab and this lack on knowledge of UK trade. There are plenty more examples that you can get for high profile Brexiters. The UK government has never been up front about the compromises required post Brexit. For many Brexiters talk like that is blasphemy. When you look at this as whole it's not altogether surprising that we are looking at potential no deal situation. You don't need to go down the road of conspiracy theories.

CelticRambler

I'm not doubting the cultish belief in Brexit by very many people; but to get what you want out of any organisation, you don't need to control the whole executive, you just need to arrange for the "right" kind of people to end up where you want them, "right" being those that'll behave in a way that suits your ends, especially without further intervention. It's ridiculously easy to achieve, no conspiracy necessary.

Sam Russell

This how a conspiracy theory gains traction and becomes a movement, and then a campaign, and if it continues to grow, it becomes unstoppable.

Brexit and Trump are examples of this.

Previous examples would be prohibition and McCarthyism in the USA. The abortion campaign, the divorce campaign, and single sex marriage are all examples from Ireland.

Currently Anti-vax and Anti-5G are nascent ones currently.

Brexit is a UK example playing out now.

What is needed is a simple proposition, best simplified to a three word slogan, and a call for an emotional response capable of withstanding any reasoned argument.

It is not new, but the pace is quicker.

We all need t be alert to combat the dingbats that promote this stuff.

54and56

So 2.5 hours from the EP's deadline for a deal to be agreed so they can ratify by Dec 31st there is no sign of white smoke?

They (both sides) are sticking to their respective positions on fishing and unless one side caves (or moves substantially as the UK are demanding of the EU) the whole deal will be binned in favour of WTO terms between the EU and UK, at least until the economic pain felt by the UK is such that they climb down and agree terms on fishing closer to what the EU are looking for?

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

What is needed is a simple proposition, best simplified to a three word slogan, and a call for an emotional response capable of withstanding any reasoned argument.

I'd add that you also need a dysfunctional bi-polar electoral system, the type of which we've seen exploited to great effect in both the UK and the US. These systems are the perfect breeding ground for "vote against" campaigns, and a lot easier to manipulate with non-factual, emotional propaganda than systems that typically lead to multi-party government, where voters have to vote for something.

Which takes us back to the beginning: there was no vote for any particular kind of Brexit (let's exclude Johnson's oven ready turkey), and all the political agitation since has been against whatever was on the table - even those infamous "Rebel Alliance" amendments. And so it is that we're here at the eleventh hour and the only people who can articulate what they really want, what they really really want, are the hardest of hard-core no-Deal Brexiters.

Looks like they're going to get it.

Nody

54and56 wrote: »

So 2.5 hours from the EP's deadline for a deal to be agreed so they can ratify by Dec 31st there is no sign of white smoke

Already confirmed to go on longer.

Post-Brexit trade talks are due to continue tomorrow after the European Union’s chief negotiator said they had reached a “crucial moment”.

But Michel Barnier did little to raise UK hopes the EU would significantly shift its position in the coming hours, amid fears Britain is heading for a damaging no-deal Brexit.

Earlier, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, accused the bloc of making unreasonable demands to secure an agreement.

But both men also suggested that talks would continue beyond the supposed deadline of midnight tonight.

Taken from here.

Leroy42

I do find it funny, strange funny, that the UK are complaining that the EU are putting up last minute demands.

This is the same group that insisted that the EU always folds at the 11th hour, and so this was always the plan.

embraer170

Could we ever see a Parcel Motel Germany to replace the existing UK/NI service?
Of course it would never be quite as useful.

McGiver

Nody wrote:

Already confirmed to go on longer.

Talks were never going to stop.
But the EP won't ratify anything now before 1st January 2021. Time up. Game over.

The Council may go for provisional application of the FTA, if agreed by 31st December 2020, but it's politically very risky for them to do so - the EP is clearly against that, so such provisional application would piss the EP off mightily - will the Council take the risk just for the UK's sake? I think it's very unlikely.

Shelga

Are we looking at no deal, by default, for at least a short period in January? It would seem so. I never would have thought, even with this UK government, that it would be the 21st of December and no one has a clue what’s happening in 11 days time.