Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

mirrorwall14

This seems to be one of the most knowledgeable threads on brexit. Would you happen to have my information on what supply lines for ireland are still coming through the landbridge or has much of it moved to ferry’s etc?

Sam Russell

Fish is very important fir Ireland, France, the Netherlands and Spain, That is a lot of opposition.

The EP have made clear they will not rubber stamp the agreement. They have rightly demanded time to scrutinise the agreement. Their deadline is now passed.

So No deal. How could the UK be so stupid?

Infini

https://twitter.com/davidmcallister/status/1340762389499826176?s=09

https://twitter.com/davidmcallister/status/1340762390686797826

And so it begins....

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

Fish is very important fir Ireland, France, the Netherlands and Spain, That is a lot of opposition.

The EP have made clear they will not rubber stamp the agreement. They have rightly demanded time to scrutinise the agreement. Their deadline is now passed.

So No deal. How could the UK be so stupid?

Fishing is also important for Denmark and Belgium


Not to mention Norway , except they don't have to ratify the UK trade deal.

But they do have control over EU/UK access to Norwegian waters.

54and56

Shelga wrote: »

Are we looking at no deal, by default, for at least a short period in January? It would seem so.

IMHO if we lurch into a period of WTO which is intended to be short in order to tie up the final few issues and legalities etc there's a good chance, once the initial shock has been absorbed, that the dynamic between the EU and UK might shift significantly leading to the EU hardening it's position on the outstanding issues and possibly even reopening issues it had previously been prepared to give ground on as it will be clear for all to see that the UK will be "motivated" (nice term for desperate) to get a deal dinner in order to alleviate the chaos.

Enzokk

I still think a deal is reached and arrangements made to ensure there is no chaos while the time is taken to ratify it, but it will come because people will not want to add to the chaos that is being felt due to Covid.

But I also get the feeling that because we are so close to the cliff edge if either side throws a temper tantrum due to a perceived slight against their other side we could have a very damaging Brexit.

I am minded though to believe the EU shouldn't give the UK an easy ride. There has been ample time to get to a deal and the UK rejected the transition, so why make it easy for them. Let them deal with the chaos for 3 weeks while the European Parliament ratifies the deal. They were warned about these deadlines, let them learn why they are there.

fash

. The finale to this year's series of Brexit is becoming too unrealistic - did the game of thrones season 8 writing team take over?

Tell me how

fash wrote: »

. The finale to this year's series of Brexit is becoming too unrealistic - did the game of thrones season 8 writing team take over?

It's pretty dramatic stuff alright.

I'd imagine we'll see some pretty interesting videos coming from Drivers stuck in trucks in the vicinity of Dover in the coming days.

Hermy

I thought it odd that earlier today Matt Hancock stated they had lost control of the virus - odd in the sense that politicians don't usually admit defeat so openly, especially not those of the Brexiter persuassion.

And since then several of the UK's neighbours have effectively closed their borders to all UK traffic for 48 hours.

Would it ever be that this is nothing to do with Covid and everything to do with a dry run for a No Deal Brexit on January 1st?

I'm sure it's not but it's been a strange year and it just keeps getting stranger.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55385768
Goods can still flow but Ireland, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands , Belgium, Switzerland, Austria , Bulgaria and Turkey are blocking flights.

A European Council meeting will be held at 10:00 GMT on Monday on co-ordinating EU actions.

At least they'll get to test the Farage Garages.

Donald Trump

Enzokk wrote: »

I still think a deal is reached and arrangements made to ensure there is no chaos while the time is taken to ratify it, but it will come because people will not want to add to the chaos that is being felt due to Covid.

I'd reckon the Brexiteers will try to hide the downsides behind Covid - "Brexit is great and we will prosper. The only issue is this bloody virus. Only for that we'd be flying"

CelticRambler

Hermy wrote: »

And since then several of the UK's neighbours have effectively closed their borders to all UK traffic for 48 hours.

Would it ever be that this is nothing to do with Covid and everything to do with a dry run for a No Deal Brexit on January 1st?

And I was accuses of conspiracy theorising earlier! :pac:

I don't think so, for two reasons:
(1) the initial measures (the Dutch move) was very specifically targeted at the kinds of travellers who spread the virus around the world in the first place, i.e. airline passengers. ; and
(2) the French have already overtly conducted their dry run exercise - they have no need to completely shut down all movement across the Channel, as it'd be more ... useful ... as demonstration of what no-deal means if they just made everyone wait and wait and wait and wait, while carrying out comprehensive border checks.

If there's any Brexit-related aspect to it, it'll come in a day or two when there's a coordinated EU-wide response and GB is given a "stay away" notice. If that happens, it'll be interesting to see what's agreed in respect of NI, but it wouldn't surprise me if this becomes one of many small steps towards NI being more regularly "partitioned" from the UK. Scotland's action has already laid the groundwork.

There could be panic buying in England tomorrow due to the French blockade.

fash

Hermy wrote: »

.
Would it ever be that this is nothing to do with Covid and everything to do with a dry run for a No Deal Brexit on January 1st?
.

I don't believe so - doctors and public health people internationally are taking this seriously - i.e. "early days, limited preliminary data so potentially nothing - but the preliminary data available is not good (i.e. a new strain has risen rapidly to circulate widely while competing against other widely circulating strains) - so caution advised".
They wouldn't be taking part in a plot by a government in some random country.

Peregrinus

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

This seems to be one of the most knowledgeable threads on brexit. Would you happen to have my information on what supply lines for ireland are still coming through the landbridge or has much of it moved to ferry’s etc?

I don't have figures, but the landbridge is still very important.

Planning for Brexit has assumed that the landbridge will be impeded, subject to delays, etc, but still basically available. And, even with that planning, the extra resources for direct sea routes are not yet fully in place.

The complete closure of the landbridge would be a whole other ball game - not one we have planned for, not one we are ready for. It would be very painful, esp. if it continues for more than the 48 hours already announced.

Strazdas

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't have figures, but the landbridge is still very important.

Planning for Brexit has assumed that the landbridge will be impeded, subject to delays, etc, but still basically available. And, even with that planning, the extra resources for direct sea routes are not yet fully in place.

The complete closure of the landbridge would be a whole other ball game - not one we have planned for, not one we are ready for. It would be very painful, esp. if it continues for more than the 48 hours already announced.

Could extra France-Ireland ferries be laid on at short notice? Given that GB is not an option for them, it could be doable.

AutoTuning

France has also blocked all human handled goods due to the Coronavirus variant. They're awaiting data before allowing anything though.

Strazdas

AutoTuning wrote: »

France has also blocked all human handled goods due to the Coronavirus variant. They're awaiting data before allowing anything though.

I suppose they're being very sensible - the last thing they want is the new variant ripping through their population.

AutoTuning

Strazdas wrote: »

I suppose they're being very sensible - the last the last thing they want is the new variant ripping through their population.

I suspect it's the "emergency brake" option. They, like Ireland, put a 48 hour stop in place, but have gone further on freight than we have.

I would assume the situation is being rapidly risk assessed. The information clearly was serious enough to trip a very rapid response in a lot of countries, but not clear enough to be nuanced about it.

Strazdas

AutoTuning wrote: »

I suspect it's the "emergency brake" option. They, like Ireland, put a 48 hour stop in place, but have gone further on freight than we have.

I would assume the situation is being rapidly risk assessed. The information clearly was serious enough to trip a very rapid response in a lot of countries, but not clear enough to be nuanced about it.

Though Eamonn Ryan has already suggested the '48 hour' ban could last right through Christmas. Things could be about to get grim for the south of England.

AutoTuning

It's possible. We just don't know. I suspect we are going to find out a lot more as Monday rolls on.

At least we have been planning with the assumption of hard brexit so might be able to bypass the land bridge routes, but it's a grim prospect for the UK and I wish them well.

deathbomber

I was actually wondering it it was a tactic of the UK government to encourage people to get the vaccine jab and may of now backfired with countries imposing bans. Conspiracy theories eh

lawred2

deathbomber wrote: »

I was actually wondering it it was a tactic of the UK government to encourage people to get the vaccine jab and may of now backfired with countries imposing bans. Conspiracy theories eh

?

deathbomber

lawred2 wrote: »

?

i refer to the covid variant, regardless, this will give the UK time to ponder and look at reality. The EU should not budge another inch and i don't think they will.

murphaph

I'd be amazed if this new variant wasn't already to be found in Ireland and the continent. London is the biggest city in Europe and it's Christmas time. Infected people have probably already brought it to their home countries. HGV drivers aren't out socialising. They keep themselves to themselves when on the road. It's a lonely lifestyle really. I'd say the risk from them is miniscule and they could set up testing for them before letting them board the ferries. I'm sure they will do what they can to get freight moving.

deathbomber

murphaph wrote: »

I'd be amazed if this new variant wasn't already to be found in Ireland and the continent. London is the biggest city in Europe and it's Christmas time. Infected people have probably already brought it to their home countries. HGV drivers aren't out socialising. They keep themselves to themselves when on the road. It's a lonely lifestyle really. I'd say the risk from them is miniscule and they could set up testing for them before letting them board the ferries. I'm sure they will do what they can to get freight moving.

In a way, yes in other ways no, the phenomenon known as dogging originated from lorry drivers being bored on the side of the road :pac:

You also have to remember the time of the year, people are out and not practicing social distancing, Late December, Jan, Feb are the high risk months for the virus, it will spread a lot anyway. People should really mask up everywhere but it's not going to happen, particularly younger people. The vaccine roll out can't come quick enough

More than likely it is here too

rock22

While no one could foresee that a new strain of Covid might arise, it was always likely that the landbridge would be massive affected by delays. Surely we in Ireland should have been much more proactive in planning direct ferries to France. Instead, Irish ferries sold the Oscar Wilde which could have provided extra capacity.

Separately, I cannot see any need for UK to reach agreement before De 31st. It appears that in the last week or so , the EU has made a number of concessions . On that basis they might make some more in the time remaining. Even if no more concession are made, the UK Government will have no delay in approving any deal and will be able to leave any chaos between the European Parliament, Council and Commission, and possibly amongst member states.

I can see no good reason, from EU point of view, not to call off talks as planning needed for no deal, with an agreement to re engage in 2021 if UK are still in mind to do deal. Otherwise Eu are going from a position of strength to being the object of UK arbitrary timetables.

Infini

Big slide on Sterling this morning jumped to 92p to the Euro quick succession.

mrunsure

embraer170 wrote: »

Could we ever see a Parcel Motel Germany to replace the existing UK/NI service?
Of course it would never be quite as useful.

I've used this before:

https://www.mailboxde.com/

It's pretty remarkable that planes not flying and ports being wrecked has been talked about for years as a worst case scenario for Brexit, and now something else has caused those things to happen within two weeks of the Brexit date.