Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

yagan

rock22 wrote: »

While no one could foresee that a new strain of Covid might arise, it was always likely that the landbridge would be massive affected by delays. Surely we in Ireland should have been much more proactive in planning direct ferries to France. Instead, Irish ferries sold the Oscar Wilde which could have provided extra capacity.

Have you been on the W B Yeats yet? It's an absolute monster, plus other shipping companies are diverting ships to us that would have previously gone to Britain. There'll no loss in options for us.

VinLieger

yagan wrote: »

Have you been on the W B Yeats yet? It's an absolute monster, plus other shipping companies are diverting ships to us that would have previously gone to Britain. There'll no loss in options for us.

Indeed we've 2 of the worlds largest RoRo's operating for the last year between us and the continent to adjust for Brexit, yet people like the poster your replied to who are purposely ignorant of the massive levels of adjustments continue coming on here trying to make these claims as it suits their own pro-brexit agendas.

thegoth

CelticRambler wrote: »

You're basing your argument on the idea that shadowy figures have failed in their objectives without knowing what their objectives are. If there are unidentified third parties manipulating events in the UK (which is more likely than not, given all the evidence that has come to light since the Referendum) it would be plausible that such parties could have create the circumstances in which a bunch of incompetent fools would take the credit/blame for what's happened to the UK.

We don't know what outcome is/was desired by the shadowy figures that we do know about; all we know is that there's been plenty of money to be made by stringing the process out (with the happy surprise of a Covid pandemic to help) only to end up where we amateurs on this forum way back in the early days said things would end up.

" it would be plausible that such parties could have create the circumstances in which a bunch of incompetent fools would take the credit/blame for what's happened to the UK."

Remember that the incompetent fools you refer to are the British electorate who voted for Brexit once, and when it wasnt going as they wished, they voted in Johnson to try and force through the version of Brexit they wanted. No ridiculous shadowy figures. It the the moronic British electorate. Its that simple

yagan

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed we've 2 of the worlds largest RoRo's operating for the last year between us and the continent to adjust for Brexit, yet people like the poster your replied to who are purposely ignorant of the massive levels of adjustments continue coming on here trying to make these claims as it suits their own pro-brexit agendas.

There really isn't anything to say about Brexit now as Covid has robbed Johnson of what little rope he had left.

Brexit is as stuck now as all the trucks going nowhere in Kent. On the ground Brexit effectively happened today and the next time trucks in Kent move towards the continent it will be under a deal that Britain will have had to beg out of the EU.

GazzaL

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed we've 2 of the worlds largest RoRo's operating for the last year between us and the continent to adjust for Brexit, yet people like the poster your replied to who are purposely ignorant of the massive levels of adjustments continue coming on here trying to make these claims as it suits their own pro-brexit agendas.

There are lots of companies in Ireland who have been avoiding the landbridge for at least two years, everything direct-shipped in from the likes of Zeebrugge.

Professor Moriarty

thegoth wrote: »

" it would be plausible that such parties could have create the circumstances in which a bunch of incompetent fools would take the credit/blame for what's happened to the UK."

Remember that the incompetent fools you refer to are the British electorate who voted for Brexit once, and when it wasnt going as they wished, they voted in Johnson to try and force through the version of Brexit they wanted. No ridiculous shadowy figures. It the the moronic British electorate. Its that simple

They were deceived throughout the Brexit campaign: NHS funding, quickest deal ever, remaining in the CU etc. Johnson got less than 44% of the vote in 2019, a significant proportion of which was Corbyn's lack of competence, his zero charisma factor and the 'Tory til I die' section. You then have to understand that in the context of FPTP. There is indeed a cohort that are useful idiots but to say that the British electorate are "incompetent fools" and "moronic" is wrong. "

Brussels Sprout

Switzerland and Norway are members of the EU Single Market. However, both have custom checks with their EU neighbours. Since they have freedom of goods and people what are the customs officers actually checking for?

thegoth

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They were deceived throughout the Brexit campaign: NHS funding, quickest deal ever, remaining in the CU etc. Johnson got less than 44% of the vote in 2019, a significant proportion of which was Corbyn's lack of competence, his zero charisma factor and the 'Tory til I die' section. You then have to understand that in the context of FPTP. There is indeed a cohort that are useful idiots but to say that the British electorate are "incompetent fools" and "moronic" is wrong. "

I agree that the electorate were mislead in the referendum but they had a choice of Corbyn or a hard Brexit last year. Granted, it was a bad choice, but they made it, and it was a hard Brexit.

CelticRambler

rock22 wrote: »

I cannot see any need for UK to reach agreement before De 31st. It appears that in the last week or so , the EU has made a number of concessions .

It has??? Any chance you could provide us with a list of concessions the EU has made in the last week?

CelticRambler

thegoth wrote: »

Remember that the incompetent fools you refer to are the British electorate who voted for Brexit once, and when it wasnt going as they wished, they voted in Johnson to try and force through the version of Brexit they wanted. No ridiculous shadowy figures. It the the moronic British electorate. Its that simple

thegoth wrote: »

I agree that the electorate were mislead in the referendum but they had a choice of Corbyn or a hard Brexit last year. Granted, it was a bad choice, but they made it, and it was a hard Brexit.

About 60% of the electorate did not vote for Johnson and his version of Brexit. It's not the electorate that's moronic, it's their FPTP electoral system that's so easy to manipulate. As you point out, when it came to putting that one X on the ballot last December, the choice was between some vague idea of a hard (not-that-hard) (oven-ready) (it'll be grand) (we did fine before) Brexit and voting for the Evil Commie Anti-Semitic Corbyn. Two thirds of the electorate (see that? - a minority) decided to go with the anti-Corbyn option rather than anti-Brexit, and yet Johnson & Co. still got back into government.

yagan

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There is indeed a cohort that are useful idiots but to say that the British electorate are "incompetent fools" and "moronic" is wrong. "

The British electorate voted down changing FPTP to AV in 2011, and last year in the MEP ballot remain voters had the greatest opportunity to register protest, yet turnout on the day was only 37%, nearly half of the 72% turnout for the Brexit referendum! The Brexit party won 40% of seats so where did all the 2016 pro EU voters disappear to?

thegoth

CelticRambler wrote: »

About 60% of the electorate did not vote for Johnson and his version of Brexit. It's not the electorate that's moronic, it's their FPTP electoral system that's so easy to manipulate. As you point out, when it came to putting that one X on the ballot last December, the choice was between some vague idea of a hard (not-that-hard) (oven-ready) (it'll be grand) (we did fine before) Brexit and voting for the Evil Commie Anti-Semitic Corbyn. Two thirds of the electorate (see that? - a minority) decided to go with the anti-Corbyn option rather than anti-Brexit, and yet Johnson & Co. still got back into government.

Thats their democratic system. No one to blame but themselves. They about to learn a tough lesson of Britain's place in the world

mrunsure

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Switzerland and Norway are members of the EU Single Market. However, both have custom checks with their EU neighbours. Since they have freedom of goods and people what are the customs officers actually checking for?

Certainly if you buy online when living in either of those countries you have to pay VAT, although there are exemptions if the value is below a certain level. I believe Switzerland have removed exemptions when buying from a large foreign company, such as Amazon, so you pay VAT even on low value items. The exemption is higher if you physically bring the goods into Switzerland yourself so there are parcel shops just outside the border.

mrunsure

CelticRambler wrote: »

About 60% of the electorate did not vote for Johnson and his version of Brexit. It's not the electorate that's moronic, it's their FPTP electoral system that's so easy to manipulate. As you point out, when it came to putting that one X on the ballot last December, the choice was between some vague idea of a hard (not-that-hard) (oven-ready) (it'll be grand) (we did fine before) Brexit and voting for the Evil Commie Anti-Semitic Corbyn. Two thirds of the electorate (see that? - a minority) decided to go with the anti-Corbyn option rather than anti-Brexit, and yet Johnson & Co. still got back into government.

If the UK didn't have FPTP then the Tories wouldn't have had to worry about UKIP as long as they got less than 50% of the vote. The other parties would always be able to block them. But the Tories were worried about UKIP splitting their vote, hence the referendum.

breezy1985

mrunsure wrote: »

If the UK didn't have FPTP then the Tories wouldn't have had to worry about UKIP as long as they got less than 50% of the vote. The other parties would always be able to block them. But the Tories were worried about UKIP splitting their vote, hence the referendum.

But under PR a Tory & Ukip coalition would have probably happened at some stage and we would still be here anyway

Sam Russell

Not a word on RTE today about the Brexit negotiations, nor about the midnight deadline. Nothing.

No mention of the European Parliament tweet saying there would be no ratification of any deal this year. Nothing.

I wonder why?

rock22

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed we've 2 of the worlds largest RoRo's operating for the last year between us and the continent to adjust for Brexit, yet people like the poster your replied to who are purposely ignorant of the massive levels of adjustments continue coming on here trying to make these claims as it suits their own pro-brexit agendas.

What an extraordinary post.
Where did you ever get the idea that i was pro-Brexit??

On RTE just now, "President of IRHA say there is not enough capacity on Direct routes".
Capacity is only for 90 trucks and there needs 400 at the moment. Last sailing is Wednesday and is fully booked.
Some supermarkets already suggesting that some items will run out.

It seems to some people, that any criticism of the preparedness of Irish government means you must be pro-Brexit.

thegoth

Why do you think?

ArmaniJeanss

mrunsure wrote: »

If the UK didn't have FPTP then the Tories wouldn't have had to worry about UKIP as long as they got less than 50% of the vote. The other parties would always be able to block them. But the Tories were worried about UKIP splitting their vote, hence the referendum.

Not really true.
In a world where Remain won 52 - 48, UKIP are still there taking annoying percentages away from the Tories in every election, talking on Question Time about how Britain is being rode by the EU in every budget, and things would be better if only strong people like Farage were sent over to negotiate.
The only advantage is that it would have won the internal Conservative battle - Rees-Mogg, IDS, Davis, Bridgen etc would have been shut up for 10/20 years.

CelticRambler

yagan wrote: »

The British electorate voted down changing FPTP to AV in 2011, and last year in the MEP ballot remain voters had the greatest opportunity to register protest, yet turnout on the day was only 37%, nearly half of the 72% turnout for the Brexit referendum!

Yes, but that's all part and parcel of the systematic disenfranchisement created by FPTP. When you've been born and reared in a system that repeatedly ignores the opinion of more than half the electorate, moderate voters disengage from the political process. Like the Brexit referendum, the AV referendum was undermined by false claims and luke-warm government support. And as for the EP elections - well, who'd be motivated to get out and vote for some faraway institution knowing that the UK's participation was coming to an end?

On the other hand, the devolved parliaments are elected on the basis of some form of proportional representation, and we're already seeing greater involvement of their constituents in political debate related to their own affairs. Scotland is the poster child, but it's happening in Wales too. NI is obviously a basket special case, yet even there, there's a slow move towards a more centrist/collaborative governance. Covid on the back of Brexit has really emphasised the divisions between those "democratic" countries and a Merrie England still operating under a modern-day feudal system.

Sam Russell

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Not really true.
In a world where Remain won 52 - 48, UKIP are still there taking annoying percentages away from the Tories in every election, talking on Question Time about how Britain is being rode by the EU in every budget, and things would be better if only strong people like Farage were sent over to negotiate.
The only advantage is that it would have won the internal Conservative battle - Rees-Mogg, IDS, Davis, Bridgen etc would have been shut up for 10/20 years.

UKIP were infiltrating the local Tories big time. It was like the various left wingers
like Momentum (socialists) were infiltrating the Labour party.

FPTP was definitely a factor. Too many safe seats, and too many of these are able to be captured with a minority of votes.

VinLieger

rock22 wrote: »

What an extraordinary post.
Where did you ever get the idea that i was pro-Brexit??

On RTE just now, "President of IRHA say there is not enough capacity on Direct routes".
Capacity is only for 90 trucks and there needs 400 at the moment. Last sailing is Wednesday and is fully booked.
Some supermarkets already suggesting that some items will run out.

It seems to some people, that any criticism of the preparedness of Irish government means you must be pro-Brexit.

Yes not enough capacity on direct routes NOW due to the UK covid restrictions. We would have likely been fine with the plans currently in place if there were no UK covid restrictions yet your post was criticising Ireland's Brexit preparedness when its actually unforeseen covid issues that are the current problem.

Valhallapt

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed we've 2 of the worlds largest RoRo's operating for the last year between us and the continent to adjust for Brexit, yet people like the poster your replied to who are purposely ignorant of the massive levels of adjustments continue coming on here trying to make these claims as it suits their own pro-brexit agendas.

I’ve spoke to several people in logistics. I see the main problems is that, although they have plans in place they have not been executed yet, it has remained cheaper and quicker to buy from the UK for many of the brands we know and love, so although there are alternative plans in place, they will take a week or two to stand up, so we may well see some temporary shortages. Additional capacity is due to come on stream in the next fortnight, but many supplies will run low if the land bridge is severely disrupted.

rock22

VinLieger wrote: »

Yes not enough capacity on direct routes NOW due to the UK covid restrictions. We would have likely been fine with the plans currently in place if there were no UK covid restrictions yet your post was criticising Ireland's Brexit preparedness when its actually unforeseen covid issues that are the current problem.

Even though there is a green lane agreed, no one has any idea how it will work for Irish hauliers through the landbridge. If all hauliers switch to direct routes, which is being promoted by the government, then there is not enough capacity. While planning was being undertaken for post-Brexit , Irish ferries sold the Oscar Wilde to Italy. It would have been prudent to retain that ship, at least until we know what the difficulties are. And yes I know it would cost money but surely it would have been worthwhile for government to make grants available.

And for the record, I am not pro -Brexit, although at this stage I would be quite happy to see the end of them . However, in a forum where people are falling over themselves to say how incompetent the UK are, we are not showing any great planning either.

murphaph

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Switzerland and Norway are members of the EU Single Market. However, both have custom checks with their EU neighbours. Since they have freedom of goods and people what are the customs officers actually checking for?

They are not in the EU customs union or VAT area. Stuff like product standards have to be near identical but the Swiss can charge whatever VAT they like and tariffs may apply too.

I often buy stuff online from CH and it's generally shipped ex VAT but invariably stopped by German customs and any duties and VAT are applied here in Germany before DHL deliver it to me (cash payment of the duties and VAT on delivery if I'm at home, otherwise pay in collection from the local post office). Most of the stuff I buy (models) are zero rated though so it's only VAT and the DHL handling charge (€6 per parcel).

It's no different than buying online from Japan to be honest, except in CH the exports always seem to go through a Swiss customs check before export which is pretty unusual I believe.

The Swiss and EU checks at the land border are much more random in nature. You might get stopped but you probably won't. I haven't crossed the land border more than a dozen times so my sample size is small but I've never been checked since CH joined Schengen, even though one thing has theoretically nothing to do with the other.

Of course the thresholds are much higher when crossing in person than when ordering online.

VinLieger

Valhallapt wrote: »

I’ve spoke to several people in logistics. I see the main problems is that, although they have plans in place they have not been executed yet, it has remained cheaper and quicker to buy from the UK for many of the brands we know and love, so although there are alternative plans in place, they will take a week or two to stand up, so we may well see some temporary shortages. Additional capacity is due to come on stream in the next fortnight, but many supplies will run low if the land bridge is severely disrupted.

Ohh of course its cheaper to use the land bridge, it was always going to be simply because its quicker than any sea routes.

mrunsure

murphaph wrote: »

The Swiss and EU checks at the land border are much more random in nature. You might get stopped but you probably won't. I haven't crossed the land border more than a dozen times so my sample size is small but I've never been checked since CH joined Schengen, even though one thing has theoretically nothing to do with the other.

Of course the thresholds are much higher when crossing in person than when ordering online.

I have crossed the Swiss border several times by car and by train. Before Schengen you would always be checked at a major border crossing but there were a vast number of minor crossings which were often unmanned. Since Schengen I've only been checked towards Italy by Italians at the Chiasso border, who asked me if I was carrying more than 10,000 euros. There are so many local trains in this area so routine checking would be impractical. There's a even a local tram route near Basel that makes a short detour into France. On that line there is at least one stop in France and there are signs on the platform about customs.

https://twitter.com/FranceintheUK/status/1340964850839810049

Hopefully something will happen with freight pretty soon.

Gerry T

rock22 wrote:

On RTE just now, "President of IRHA say there is not enough capacity on Direct routes". Capacity is only for 90 trucks and there needs 400 at the moment. Last sailing is Wednesday and is fully booked. Some supermarkets already suggesting that some items will run out.

The MV Celine carries 580 trailers, it has 8km of lane capacity. Its sister ship is simular. DFDS have put on two sailings a day to roscoff. There is many more, from memory we can carry over 80% direct to the main land.
Dublin port needed deepening, that project started in 2016 and was ready by 2018 to accommodate these very large roro ships, the port has a 1b investment fund which takes it to 2025.
The UK won't stop buying from IRL so that will take say 5% of our exports which means we need more direct sea routes, but getting ships is easy if you have the port infrastructure, thankfully IRL has been working on this for the past 4 years, not just at Dublin port either.
Yes it takes longer, this ships are so large it takes unusual weather to stop them sailing but it will still happen, but the reality is going through the UK isn't really a viable option for the foreseable future. But that's no fault of IRL, the blame squarly sits at the UKs door. To be kind you could call it colateral damage, either way you'll see many a brexiter and rag press rejoice over the Irish woes.

ath262

Update from Stena lines - The Stena Foreteller is being moved into position to commence on the Rosslare to Cherbourg route. We will now have two ships departing tomorrow direct to France.


https://twitter.com/StenaLine/status/1340972968692858881