Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

You can't blame the voters for voting in an non-binding referendum that was run against a background of foreign interference, considerable rule-breaking and the complete absence of a detailed explanation of what would follow from changing the status quo. Voters in the UK are nowhere near as used to voting in referendums as we (Irish) or the Swiss are.

And with a total misunderstanding and ignorance of the role of UK referendums. They are under the impression that an advisory referendum of little or no legal status is more powerful than either the Government or the Parliament - that once a decision has been made in a poll, the result cannot be stopped, paused, delayed or overruled, not even if the government that held the referendum falls and is replaced.

trellheim

that the quota reductions are being bandied about is very worrying - it indicates things are near to a problem as these things should never leak out of the tunnel till its all done.

AutoTuning

Just spotted this on a thread about COVID, but it seems that a range of courier services in and out of Ireland have been suspended due to the UK COVID situation.

I know it's still a whopping 7 working days to Brexit on 01/01/2021 but this does not bode well if there's this level of lack of preparation by major logistics companies. It looks like we will have serious disruption.

https://www.dhl.de/en/privatkunden.html
https://www.ups.com/ie/en/service-alerts.page?id=alert1
https://www.dpd.com/de/de/2020/12/21...nicht-moglich/

You'd kinda assume that they'd be proofing alternative routes, but it looks like they're just going to continue to lump us in as a branch of their UK market.

View

Strazdas wrote: »

And with a total misunderstanding and ignorance of the role of UK referendums. They are under the impression that an advisory referendum of little or no legal status is more powerful than either the Government or the Parliament - that once a decision has been made in a poll, the result cannot be stopped, paused, delayed or overruled, not even if the government that held the referendum falls and is replaced.

Ironically it is a very “European” attitude to referenda that is totally at odds with all British constitutional laws and traditions.

Peregrinus

AutoTuning wrote: »

Just spotted this on a thread about COVID, but it seems that a range of courier services in and out of Ireland have been suspended due to the UK COVID situation.

I know it's still a whopping 7 working days to Brexit on 01/01/2021 but this does not bode well if there's this level of lack of preparation by major logistics companies. It looks like we will have serious disruption.

https://www.dhl.de/en/privatkunden.html
https://www.ups.com/ie/en/service-alerts.page?id=alert1
https://www.dpd.com/de/de/2020/12/21...nicht-moglich/

You'd kinda assume that they'd be proofing alternative routes, but it looks like they're just going to continue to lump us in as a branch of their UK market.

To be fair, even a no-deal Brexit wasn't going to prevent courier traffic from passing from Europe to Ireland via the UK. I don't see that their Brexit planning ought to have addressed the possiblity of the outright closure of the channel ports.

A similar thing happened a couple of years back when European flights were grounded as a result of a volcanic eruption in Iceland. We all remember the stranded tourists, but courier services were similarly affected.

Brexit is different from a pandemic or a volcanic eruption, and there is no reason to think that even the best Brexit planning will, or should, protect against the risks arising from pandemics or eruptions.

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

And with a total misunderstanding and ignorance of the role of UK referendums. They are under the impression that an advisory referendum of little or no legal status is more powerful than either the Government or the Parliament - that once a decision has been made in a poll, the result cannot be stopped, paused, delayed or overruled, not even if the government that held the referendum falls and is replaced.

But this is one of these self-fulfilling beliefs; if enough people believe it then it is, in fact, true. As current events show.

fash

peter kern wrote: »

i do not think FPTP is a good system, but if we look at how long it takes to form governments in Spain recently, not to mention Belgium if we look at italy having a new government about every 1.5 years, i struggle to call this system deeply dysfuntional. and i do not think this is the cause of brexit.
at the end of the day while we dont like the result there was a democratic referendum and the voting system is not to blame that politicians get away with lies, the problem is the VOTERS that did not study enough what they were voting for .

To explain: it's having 2 systems in the one country that is the problem. Have FPTP on its own - no problem (if you like that sort of thing). Have 2 PR systems- not a problem, they reflect and enhance each other.
Have 2 different systems in one country - problem - it leads to small parties surviving and splits the vote for the main parties. Seeing their vote being split (and fearing the Brexit party who were splitting it) was a primary driver of Brexit for the Tories - especially their right wing.

Strazdas

Peregrinus wrote: »

But this is one of these self-fulfilling beliefs; if enough people believe it then it is, in fact, true. As current events show.

You could argue that certainly but with no written constitution, the whole thing just becomes a shambles.

Also, the idea of a one off referendum where the result can never be reversed is profoundly undemocratic and authoritarian (it would be like a one off general election where the Tories get returned to power for the next 50 years).

AutoTuning

Peregrinus wrote: »

To be fair, even a no-deal Brexit wasn't going to prevent courier traffic from passing from Europe to Ireland via the UK. I don't see that their Brexit planning ought to have addressed the possiblity of the outright closure of the channel ports.

A similar thing happened a couple of years back when European flights were grounded as a result of a volcanic eruption in Iceland. We all remember the stranded tourists, but courier services were similarly affected.

Brexit is different from a pandemic or a volcanic eruption, and there is no reason to think that even the best Brexit planning will, or should, protect against the risks arising from pandemics or eruptions.

There's a significant possibility of HUGE disruption at ports in January. They've been planning truck parks and stacking trucks on approach roads to ports and long distance motorways and we've got brexit buster ferry routes setup.

If there's no deal, of course they would have needed to route through alternative ports. Otherwise, Irish stuff will be backlogged for days.

This, I would very much look at as a trial run and it seems we've no contingencies.

I'm extremely concerned that after all the hand wringing and hype, it will be left up to the market to solve all these logistical and technical issues.

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

Also, the idea of a one off referendum where the result can never be reversed is profoundly undemocratic and authoritarian (it would be like a one off general election where the Tories get returned to power for the next 50 years).

It is. But that's the thing about democracy; you can only have as much democracy as the electorate will tolerate. If UK voters want referendum decisions to be ring-fenced from further consideration, then they are. And if that make the UK less democratic (and, I agree, it does) that means the UK is less democratic because its voters want it to be less democratic.

It's clear beyound doubt that there's a powerful case for revising the Brexit decision, and that a clear majority of voters now think it was a mistake. But it's also clear that they don't want it revisited.

Strazdas

Peregrinus wrote: »

It is. But that's the thing about democracy; you can only have as much democracy as the electorate will tolerate. If UK voters want referendum decisions to be ring-fenced from further consideration, then they are. And if that make the UK less democratic (and, I agree, it does) that means the UK is less democratic because its voters want it to be less democratic.

It's clear beyound doubt that there's a powerful case for revising the Brexit decision, and that a clear majority of voters now think it was a mistake. But it's also clear that they don't want it revisited.

I take all of your points but I would argue that most Brexit voters are right wing authoritarians who don't actually believe in democracy (hence their violent opposition to a second referendum, thinking they now own the UK etc.....they don't seem that much different to Lukashenko's supporters in Belarus).

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

I take all of your points but I would argue that most Brexit voters are right wing authoritarians who don't actually believe in democracy (hence their violent opposition to a second referendum, thinking they now own the UK etc.....they don't seem that much different to Lukashenko's supporters in Belarus).

I don't think you can tar "most Brexit voters" in this way. We don't know whether "most Brexit voters" were violently opposed to a second referendum, whether they now think the own the UK, etc; they have never been asked these questions.

All we can say is that the British electorate at large meekly accepts the notions that (a) the decision-in-principle of the 2016 referendum will not be revisited, despite compelling reasons for revisiting it; and (b) the specific mode in which Brexit will be delivered will be decided by a political elite who do not have, and do not need, democratic endorsement for their programme.

But none of this need be based on right-wing authoritarianism or a sense of ownership. I think it's more that a critical mass of people in the UK have a basically deferential attitude to the social and political elite; they want to be led.

Lumen

The EU will not let the UK back in as a full member, because of the risk that Brexiter MEPs start wrecking as they did previously. This omlette cannot be unmade.

The best the UK can hope for is to be a rule taker. This conveniently gives them a permanent bogeyman to blame for their economic ills, but no power to do damage.

Of course it may end up just being England on the outside, although I think the break up of Sterling is technically harder than Brexit. Beware the bondholders.

Peregrinus

Lumen wrote: »

The EU will not let the UK back in as a full member, because of the risk that Brexiter MEPs start wrecking as they did previously. This omlette cannot be unmade.

The best the UK can hope for is to be a rule taker. This conveniently gives them a permanent bogeyman to blame for their economic ills, but no power to do damage.

Of course it may end up just being England on the outside, although I think the break up of Sterling is technically harder than Brexit. Beware the bondholders.

The UK would not be welcome back in the EU unless there were to be a radical change in UK political culture. But the question is academic, since the UK won't seek EU membership again unless there is a radical change in its political culture. So by the time the question of readmitting the UK become a live one, the condition we have identified will already have happened.

Is there likely to be a radical change in UK political culture? Well, I think the breakup of the UK is very much on the cards, and a period of turmoil, self-appraisal, etc within the rump UK must be at least a possible consequence. Who knows where it will end up — rump UK might be a terribly reactionary place, at least for a time — but I wouldn't rule anything out.

As for the breakup of sterling, that has being going on for quite a while in a slow-motion kind of way. Back in 1945 the sterling area was the largest currency block in the world, with the UK effectively deciding monetary policy for a signficant chunk of the world's population, including many living in countries which were (in other respects) independent and self-governing. This happy (for the UK) state of affairs really only prevailed for about 15 or 20 years, after which the sterling area declined rapidly. It's now reduced to (apart from the UK itself) Guernsey, Jersey, Man, Gibraltar, the Falkands, St Helena and Tristan da Cunha. Even other UK dependencies aren't in the sterling area; they have currencies that they mostly link to the US dollar. So, while independent Scotland disentangling itself from sterling would be far from straightforward, it would also be far from unprecedented; they would be going down a very well-travelled road. It's arguably "technically harder than Brexit", but it's very doable; it has been done many times.

Lumen

Peregrinus wrote: »

So, while independent Scotland disentangling itself from sterling would be far from straightforward, it would also be far from unprecedented; they would be going down a very well-travelled road. It's arguably "technically harder than Brexit", but it's very doable; it has been done many times.

I found this from Dec 2013 which walks through various options...

https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/news-and-opinion/scottish-independence-debt-and-assets

Perhaps I was relying too much on FT scaremongering pieces.

edit: I'll try and keep this in the Scottish independence thread in future

CelticRambler

AutoTuning wrote: »

If there's no deal, of course they would have needed to route through alternative ports. Otherwise, Irish stuff will be backlogged for days.

This, I would very much look at as a trial run and it seems we've no contingencies.

I wouldn't say there are no contingencies, I would say that there are (were, up to now) still far too many companies and individuals carrying on in the belief that "it'll be grand ..."

Me, on a personal level, I made my decisions regarding cross-channel traffic and the movement of goods back in November, including suspending all travel plans for December and January on the grounds that it was more likely than not that there would be a large level of disruption and delay, especially around Christmas. That doesn't mean I've completely stopped sending and receiving packages, but nothing that's been sent or ordered is time-sensitive.

I find it interesting that the Covid war-cry - from politicians and ordinary people - is "let's get back to normal" where that normal is largely based on the non-essential high speed transport of people and goods; and at the same time, the Brexit war-cry has been to deliberately disrupt that same transport, yet pretend that nothing has or will change. Humans are a quare species.

AutoTuning

Having being dealing with companies on this for months I would say most of them have taken a head-in-sand attitude and assumed that Brexit will just be resolved somehow.

Logistics haven’t been sorted out. I just hope that at the very least the supermarkets face contingencies in place, or we face big problems.

The more complex unknowns are things like data processing. There are loads of businesses here who may be using U.K. based systems they aren’t even fully aware of, which may become even more problematic than using US based services.

Very little of this stuff has been considered by most.

Add in how many suppliers treat “U.K. and Ireland” as one market. I’ve already had a big argument with a company that kept telling me that Brexit didn’t matter and I would have to continue buying via the U.K. and not a continental supplier.

My sense is this is going to be an unholy mess in January.

rock22

Peregrinus wrote: »

...

All we can say is that the British electorate at large meekly accepts the notions that (a) the decision-in-principle of the 2016 referendum will not be revisited, despite compelling reasons for revisiting it;
...

There was a lot of discussion in UK about another referendum. While those who supported Brexit were opposed, it was also opposed by some who felt the decision had not even been implemented yet. The pollsters, indicated another very close result. If there was a second close vote, the Brexiteers indicated they would look for as third referendum. Fundamentally, the electorate in the UK is fairly evenly split and having a repeat referendum might split the electorate even more. (At the end of the day, Brexit was a reflection of widespread disaffection and disunity in the UK - having another referendum, whatever the result, would not heal that).

I saw this posted on an engineering forum , ( where the discussion was about deliveries).

"We were never going to get a deal, Dyson predicted that 3 years ago
Leave the EU.... and then get a good deal?? Only in your dreams
There are other EU members who want out and a decent deal would only encourage their Leavers""

The emphasis is mine , but you can see that there are still people in UK you see this whole negotiation as 'anti- UK freedom' rather than EU members protecting their own, legitimate, interests.

Peregrinus wrote: »

.....
.and (b) the specific mode in which Brexit will be delivered will be decided by a political elite who do not have, and do not need, democratic endorsement for their programme.
...

I think most UK voters would see that Parliament voting to endorse the deal was 'democratic endorsement' or have i mis read ?

trellheim

All we can say is that the British electorate at large meekly accepts the notions that (a) the decision-in-principle of the 2016 referendum will not be revisited, despite compelling reasons for revisiting it; and (b) the specific mode in which Brexit will be delivered will be decided by a political elite who do not have, and do not need, democratic endorsement for their programme.

But none of this need be based on right-wing authoritarianism or a sense of ownership. I think it's more that a critical mass of people in the UK have a basically deferential attitude to the social and political elite; they want to be led.

I would argue that the Tories under johnson campaigned for "oven-ready" ( which it wasn't - hence where we are now) and neatly capitalized on the British population's utter weariness with the whole thing cos the novelty had worn off ; I've had several raging arguments with UK people who can't understand why we care about it so much and just roll their eyes now and refuse to talk about it.

Labour being a deeply deeply unattractive option (see red wall etc ) under Corbyn

farmerval

I think one thing we under estimate looking at the UK is their adherence to a single figure in charge Head of State ideal.
While the Monarchy are largely ceremonial at this stage they seem to be extremely accepting of their leader Boris in this instance being the sole voice of power. I think that's where they have struggled with negotiating with the EU, they keep waiting/wanting this dramatic end game where Angela Merkel or some other big boss thrashes out a deal.
They really appear to struggle with dealing with a rules based approach where the hired help (Barnier etc) can make decisions. This really goes against the grain at least of their press ideals of the most important individual in the opposition camp has to step in and override the staff to sort out a deal with the newly sovereign UK.

AutoTuning

There’s definitely Brexit fatigue.

I had a very sensible English friend of mine tell me “oh! For god’s sake can’t you just be positive?! I voted remain but we are where we are and we will just have to grit our teeth and make the best of it. I’m sure everything will be fine and it’s all a big political fuss about nothing.”

This was followed by “if Brussels doesn’t want to be flexible, well they can just cut themselves off from the U.K. market.”

I’m also encountering Americans, in multinationals, who are only now beginning to comprehend what Brexit might entail for their companies as they had been vaguely flicking past U.K. media as their only source of info on it and were typically far more focused on domestic chaos in the USA.

Things like possibly needing work permits for U.K. staff being moved around the EU for example. Key staff suddenly being subject to U.K. work permit requirements or just leaving because of impending bureaucratic messes with British residency etc.

There’s been huge underplaying of the consequences in the U.K. media and that’s bled into a lot of discussion about it in general.

amacca

AutoTuning wrote: »

Add in how many suppliers treat “U.K. and Ireland” as one market. I’ve already had a big argument with a company that kept telling me that Brexit didn’t matter and I would have to continue buying via the U.K. and not a continental supplier.

My sense is this is going to be an unholy mess in January.

Sweet Jesus, those kinds of conversations can be the most frustrating. My business will probably lose hand over fist...itll be grand, keep doing what you always do!

yagan

AutoTuning wrote: »

Things like possibly needing work permits for U.K. staff being moved around the EU for example. Key staff suddenly being subject to U.K. work permit requirements or just leaving because of impending bureaucratic messes with British residency etc.

The Irish passport becoming the ultimate document for multinationals needing staff who can circulate freely between UK and EU operations.

View

AutoTuning wrote: »

There’s definitely Brexit fatigue.

I had a very sensible English friend of mine tell me “oh! For god’s sake can’t you just be positive?! I voted remain but we are where we are and we will just have to grit our teeth and make the best of it. I’m sure everything will be fine and it’s all a big political fuss about nothing.”

This was followed by “if Brussels doesn’t want to be flexible, well they can just cut themselves off from the U.K. market.”

I’m also encountering Americans, in multinationals, who are only now beginning to comprehend what Brexit might entail for their companies as they had been vaguely flicking past U.K. media as their only source of info on it and were typically far more focused on domestic chaos in the USA.

Things like possibly needing work permits for U.K. staff being moved around the EU for example. Key staff suddenly being subject to U.K. work permit requirements or just leaving because of impending bureaucratic messes with British residency etc.

There’s been huge underplaying of the consequences in the U.K. media and that’s bled into a lot of discussion about it in general.

I would suggest that your very sensible friend isn’t actually sensible. They sound like they are just as much in denial as the average Brexiter.

View

AutoTuning wrote: »

Having being dealing with companies on this for months I would say most of them have taken a head-in-sand attitude and assumed that Brexit will just be resolved somehow.

Logistics haven’t been sorted out. I just hope that at the very least the supermarkets face contingencies in place, or we face big problems.

The more complex unknowns are things like data processing. There are loads of businesses here who may be using U.K. based systems they aren’t even fully aware of, which may become even more problematic than using US based services.

Very little of this stuff has been considered by most.

Add in how many suppliers treat “U.K. and Ireland” as one market. I’ve already had a big argument with a company that kept telling me that Brexit didn’t matter and I would have to continue buying via the U.K. and not a continental supplier.

My sense is this is going to be an unholy mess in January.

This problem arises due to our government trying to wish away many of the difficulties of Brexit and failing to deliver the message that we needed to plan for a worst case scenario.

AutoTuning

Well, I was quite literally told not to bring up or mention Brexit at a meeting few months ago as it’s dragging down morale and “we want to keep things positive.”

fly_agaric

View wrote: »

This problem arises due to our government trying to wish away many of the difficulties of Brexit and failing to deliver the message that we needed to plan for a worst case scenario.

I do wonder if our political "masters" never fully woke up to just how much the loonies seem (to me) to have escaped & taken over the asylum in the UK. They've been expecting rationality will assert itself sooner of later.
Do they think they're dealing with the likes of Cameron or Blair (or even May)?
With only a few days to go they must realise they made a mistake there!

AutoTuning

It’s not just our political masters. There’s a broad assumption that there’s a logical strategy behind the British government’s behaviour and that it’s just brinkmanship and they won’t really crash out. That’s a belief held by many in business and I suspect many other European governments.

Most people are rational and pragmatic and what’s going on in England doesn’t really compute, particularly when it’s coming from what was a party of the centre right and seen as aligned with the needs of trade and business above all else.

What they’re not accepting is you’re dealing with a group or English nationalists who are utter dogmatics about this. It has more in common with the politics of the DUP or hardline unionism than it has with any semblance of normality in the Tory Party we had become used to.


They’ve either already silenced, sidelined or purged anyone who doesn’t agree with them within the party structure and they’ve a large section or the British media willing them on.

Can you imagine *any* previous Tory PM saying “f*** business.” That in itself is mind blowing.

You’re not looking at a government that is going to put pragmatism ahead of nationalist ideology, even if it destroys the British economy, they will have delivered their Brexit, which is what they believe they have a duty and mandate to do.

amacca

AutoTuning wrote: »

It’s not just our political masters. There’s a broad assumption that there’s a logical strategy behind the British government’s behaviour and that it’s just brinkmanship and they won’t really crash out. That’s a belief held by many in business and I suspect many other European governments.

Most people are rational and pragmatic and what’s going on in England doesn’t really compute, particularly when it’s coming from what was a party of the centre right and seen as aligned with the needs of trade and business above all else.

What they’re not accepting is you’re dealing with a group or English nationalists who are utter dogmatics about this. It has more in common with the politics of England the DUP or hardline unionism than it has with any semblance of normality in the Tory Party we had become used to.


They’ve either already silenced, sidelined or purged anyone who doesn’t agree with them within the party structure and they’ve a large section or the British media willing them on.

Can you imagine *any* previous Tory PM saying “f*** business.” That in itself is mind blowing.

You’re not looking at a government that is going to put pragmatism ahead of nationalist ideology, even if it destroys the British economy, they will have delivered their Brexit, which is what they believe they have a duty and mandate to do.

I think you are correct. Most people assume rational actors in negotiations of this scale (at least rational in terms of economics etc) ..... they are only now starting to accept that there are a bunch of loose cannons at the helm........its a pity the main antagonists will be insulated from the worst consequences of their actions.

20silkcut

AutoTuning wrote: »

It’s not just our political masters. There’s a broad assumption that there’s a logical strategy behind the British government’s behaviour and that it’s just brinkmanship and they won’t really crash out. That’s a belief held by many in business and I suspect many other European governments.

Most people are rational and pragmatic and what’s going on in England doesn’t really compute, particularly when it’s coming from what was a party of the centre right and seen as aligned with the needs of trade and business above all else.

What they’re not accepting is you’re dealing with a group or English nationalists who are utter dogmatics about this. It has more in common with the politics of the DUP or hardline unionism than it has with any semblance of normality in the Tory Party we had become used to.


They’ve either already silenced, sidelined or purged anyone who doesn’t agree with them within the party structure and they’ve a large section or the British media willing them on.

Can you imagine *any* previous Tory PM saying “f*** business.” That in itself is mind blowing.

You’re not looking at a government that is going to put pragmatism ahead of nationalist ideology, even if it destroys the British economy, they will have delivered their Brexit, which is what they believe they have a duty and mandate to do.

Add to that a report from Tony Connolly a few weeks back commenting that the U.K. negotiators are “ hard core on sovereignty” as if it were something just being realised. It looks as if even the EU negotiators themselves were surprised at just how hardcore they were.
In fairness this thread has been highlighting the zealotry of the U.K. government since Johnson became leader in 2019 , far more than any other media I have engaged with and has proven to be 100% spot on.
Most mainstream media wraps up articles and interviews with notes of optimism and a general sense of it will all work out.
We are far less sanguine here.