Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

yagan

20silkcut wrote: »

Add to that a report from Tony Connolly a few weeks back commenting that the U.K. negotiators are “ hard core on sovereignty” as if it were something just being realised. It looks as if even the EU negotiators themselves were surprised at just how hardcore they were.
In fairness this thread has been highlighting the zealotry of the U.K. government since Johnson became leader in 2019 , far more than any other media I have engaged with and has proven to be 100% spot on.
Most mainstream media wraps up articles and interviews with notes of optimism and a general sense of it will all work out.
We are far less sanguine here.

In reality there was never any real negotiations, this whole fisheries thing was only ever for keeping english nationalism stoked. Boris got his mandate last year for his government to mount unicorns and lead the people of God's Sceptred Isle to sunnier uplands.

All that's going through Brexiters minds is John of Groats Act II, Scene I speech from Shakespeare's Richard II.

Any courtesy from the EU towards a departing member expires in 9 days. Then the mood music will be very different.

trellheim

Any courtesy from the EU towards a departing member expires in 9 days. Then the mood music will be very different

Without the necessary IT systems and paperwork ( and of course a deal) operation Stack will look like the sunny uplands in a few weeks

10000maniacs

Judging by Johnson's demeanor at the press conference last night when he was was asked by Peston about Brexit, I think he has already agreed some kind of deal with the EU. Watch it back.

Peregrinus

rock22 wrote: »

I think most UK voters would see that Parliament voting to endorse the deal was 'democratic endorsement' or have i mis read ?

But within weeks of parliament voting to endorse the deal, and after winning a general election on a mandate to implement the deal, Johnson was walking away from it - first repudiating the political declaration that he had signed on behalf of the UK just weeks earlier, then rubbishing it in various ways, and finally introducing legislation to violate it openly and expressly. He certainly didn't have a democratic mandate for any of that; it was explicitly contrary to the mandate that he had sought and obtained from the electorate. Nobody - least of all the gobsh!tes who had been honking about "the Will of the People" for the previous four years - took exception. Nobody even seemed surprised. It was simply taken for granted that the Brexit programme that Johnson had put before the people and gone to the country on was meaningless. He was not bound or even expected to follow it, and nobody would object if he did not.

Shelga

Michel Barnier is briefing the EU27 ambassadors at 3pm, is my understanding, not having a press conference- when will we know the outcome of that briefing?

Junkyard Tom

I see the French are trying to force their COVID testing standards in England? How dare they! Sovereignty is sovereignty!

Seth Brundle

Shelga wrote: »

Michel Barnier is briefing the EU27 ambassadors at 3pm, is my understanding, not having a press conference- when will we know the outcome of that briefing?

He didn't have much to say - just going to continue, etc.

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1341401146469081089

rock22

Probably been linked to already but ,on a lighter note, the foreign office view on Brexit

tanko

The BBC are reporting that Barnier is saying that the EU are ready to negotiate beyond Dec 31st.
Surprise surprise, they're never really going to leave.

In other news Tesco are limiting the amount of eggs and toilet roll that can be purchased amongst other things. Let the panic buying begin.

yagan

tanko wrote: »

The BBC are reporting that Barnier is saying that the EU are ready to negotiate beyond Dec 31st.
Surprise surprise, they're never really going to leave.

Crash out is unavoidable now, but Johnson has to have some supply chain chaos in order to get the public turned on the ERG so that some stability can be put in place later.

The Raging Bile Duct

tanko wrote: »

The BBC are reporting that Barnier is saying that the EU are ready to negotiate beyond Dec 31st.
Surprise surprise, they're never really going to leave.

In other news Tesco are limiting the amount of eggs and toilet roll that can be purchased amongst other things. Let the panic buying begin.

A desire to negotiate beyond December 31st isn't going to remove the possibility of a crash out on Jan 1st, is it?

Strazdas

tanko wrote: »

The BBC are reporting that Barnier is saying that the EU are ready to negotiate beyond Dec 31st.
Surprise surprise, they're never really going to leave.

In other news Tesco are limiting the amount of eggs and toilet roll that can be purchased amongst other things. Let the panic buying begin.

No, they leave the Single Market that night. What he presumably means is that trade talks could remain open, even if the UK now has No Deal.

Pablo Escobar

tanko wrote: »

The BBC are reporting that Barnier is saying that the EU are ready to negotiate beyond Dec 31st.
Surprise surprise, they're never really going to leave.

In other news Tesco are limiting the amount of eggs and toilet roll that can be purchased amongst other things. Let the panic buying begin.

As others have said, negotiating beyond December does not mean staying in. If 'No Deal' was so good, they'd walk on that date at the very latest. They won't. It'll be a complete disaster anyway and a deal will simply mitigated some of the harm.

fash

yagan wrote: »

Crash out is unavoidable now, but Johnson has to have some supply chain chaos in order to get the public turned on the ERG so that some stability can be put in place later.

I'm honestly thinking this is the plan to discredit the far right wing: "look we went no deal for a few days/weeks- as these guys wanted, you honestly think we are stupid enough to keep doing that for some crazy notion of sovereignty?! How silly are you?" Etc. - while giving you scope to say "look how hard I fought - I even let you suffer for a few weeks to show how hard we are". .
That gives you a reasonable basis to have a deal (any deal).

AutoTuning

There isn’t any grand plan. The EU is dealing with the facts as presented. That’s all it can do really.

They’re going to be ready to talk any time, but it can’t be a deal at any price and the price seems to be that they want the EU to basically stop being the EU, which isn’t possible.

An Ciarraioch

The dramatic drone shots from that Dover lorry park are like the final scene of Raiders of the Lost Ark:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1341345938124771328

yagan

fash wrote: »

I'm honestly thinking this is the plan to discredit the far right wing: "look we went no deal for a few days/weeks- as these guys wanted, you honestly think we are stupid enough to keep doing that for some crazy notion of sovereignty?! How silly are you?" Etc. - while giving you scope to say "look how hard I fought - I even let you suffer for a few weeks to show how hard we are". .
That gives you a reasonable basis to have a deal (any deal).

If there was an actual plan you could give him credit but he's riding a crazy horse called Brexit. He's never actually led once in this whole decoupling, so I doubt he has any plan for two weeks time.

johnnyskeleton

yagan wrote: »

Crash out is unavoidable now, but Johnson has to have some supply chain chaos in order to get the public turned on the ERG so that some stability can be put in place later.

I dont see how Johnson can do anything other than own it if there is a no deal. He can't blame the fantasist extremist lobby group of the Conservative party, he is the fantasist extremist of the Conservative party.

I also think the way hes been dealing with it to date does not suggest any scope for introspection or self recriminating. If it goes wrong, its all the EUs fault will be his play. Its the only play open to him, and its gotten him where he is today.

I would suspect that the rhetoric that the UK has towards the EU about them wanting to punish the UK, which has been largely incorrect to date, will become a very real thing after a no deal Brexit

Leonard Hofstadter

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1222/1185975-johnson-von-der-leyen/

That doesn't sound too promising.

yagan

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I dont see how Johnson can do anything other than own it if there is a no deal. He can't blame the fantasist extremist lobby group of the Conservative party, he is the fantasist extremist of the Conservative party.

I also think the way hes been dealing with it to date does not suggest any scope for introspection or self recriminating. If it goes wrong, its all the EUs fault will be his play. Its the only play open to him, and its gotten him where he is today.

I would suspect that the rhetoric that the UK has towards the EU about them wanting to punish the UK, which has been largely incorrect to date, will become a very real thing after a no deal Brexit

Johnson is British exceptionalism personified so everything wrong will always be johnny foreigners fault, and despite supply chain disruptions I can see large swaths of the English public siding with him no matter what, backs to the wall and all that.

However what's not appreciated is that after January as supplicant the UK passes over to bureaucratic EU trade negotiators. Barnier led a team trying to formalise a future relationship in the departure lounge, but after January all obligation to the former EU contributor elapses and the UK joins those currently seeking trade agreements.

My only fear though is that food chain disruption gets so bad that the English Far Right will use that fear to stoke community conflict.

View

tanko wrote: »

The BBC are reporting that Barnier is saying that the EU are ready to negotiate beyond Dec 31st.
Surprise surprise, they're never really going to leave.

In other news Tesco are limiting the amount of eggs and toilet roll that can be purchased amongst other things. Let the panic buying begin.

They have already left.

That means the U.K. has no MEPs and no Ministers present to defend their national interests when legislation on topics such as the European Capital Markets Union and the European Banking Union are up for discussion and finalisation. I guess it’s lucky that neither of those areas are important to the U.K. :-)

johnnyskeleton

fly_agaric wrote: »

I do wonder if our political "masters" never fully woke up to just how much the loonies seem (to me) to have escaped & taken over the asylum in the UK. They've been expecting rationality will assert itself sooner of later.
Do they think they're dealing with the likes of Cameron or Blair (or even May)?
With only a few days to go they must realise they made a mistake there!

I dont think theyre thinking along those lines at all. As with all Brexit rhetoric, the British say things but dont really mean it, and the EU means it but they dont really say it.

"They need us more than we need them" - the EU has never said this, but the fact that they are better able to weather a few months of no deal if it means a better deal long term, is true.

"If we dont get a deal we want, we are prepared to walk away" - the EU has never said it is prepared to walk away or anything of the kind, but it is clear from their firm negotiating position that they are, if necessary, prepared to walk away.

"The big [German etc] will make sure that the EU has to have a deal" - again, the EU does not comment on the internal pressures on the UK govt, but it is fully aware of them, and realises that they will apply pressure, sooner or later.

"No deal is better than a bad deal" - and this one really explains the EU position. It isnt that they dont understand that the loonies have taken over, its that the EU realises that for them, no deal really is better than a bad deal. For the UK, this is just a vague and meaningless phrase. But for the EU it is existential.

As has been pointed out many times, the EU cannot survive if the benefits of the single market are available to a third country without any of the obligations.

So basically the EU have looked at what the UK are talking about, and decided that the general landing zones they have set out are the only things that could work. Therefore, it really doesnt matter whether the personell in the UK Govt are rational or not, what matters is that the EU will only do a deal on those terms, or not at all.

beggars_bush

They might actually have food shortages

I feel sorry for the poor people who this will affect the most

Also, we need more direct ferries to the continent. Especially from Dublin port

10000maniacs

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The dramatic drone shots from that Dover lorry park are like the final scene of Raiders of the Lost Ark:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1341345938124771328

It was always going to be risky setting out on a journey so close to Christmas with Covid-19 out of control and Brexit on the horizon. One job too many. They all should have hung up their boots mid December and then test the waters after the new year.

tanko

View wrote: »

They have already left.

That means the U.K. has no MEPs and no Ministers present to defend their national interests when legislation on topics such as the European Capital Markets Union and the European Banking Union are up for discussion and finalisation. I guess it’s lucky that neither of those areas are important to the U.K. :-)

Yeah they've already left but until a trade deal is finalised we won't know how close or not a relationship they have with the EU in the future.
Surely some degree of reality will have to prevail in London.

Nody

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The British demand for a 60% reduction in the EU fishing quota has now been reduced to 35%, and given Barnier's already at 25%, a deal will surely be done now?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/21/boris-johnson-rejects-calls-extend-brexit-talks-2021

From this post:

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1222/1185975-johnson-von-der-leyen/

That doesn't sound too promising.

Mr Barnier told ambassadors the UK proposal that the EU transfer 35% of the value of fish caught by EU boats in UK waters to the British fleet did not include pelagic stocks, and that if it did the UK offer would be closer to 60%.

He told ambassadors that the EU’s offer of 25% of the value of fish caught in UK waters was final.

"If you compare like with like it’s 60% versus 25%, that’s the real figure," said one EU official. "It’s not 35% versus 25%."

So no, they were not offering 35% vs. 25% as claimed; they simply removed some fish and then claimed it was only 35% now.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Unfortunately, unless someone is charged or it otherwise becomes an issue of public interest (such as a public inquiry), we cant discuss rumours or allegations of criminal conduct against persons, in the public eye or otherwise.

fly_agaric

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I dont think theyre thinking along those lines at all. As with all Brexit rhetoric, the British say things but dont really mean it, and the EU means it but they dont really say it.

"They need us more than we need them" - the EU has never said this, but the fact that they are better able to weather a few months of no deal if it means a better deal long term, is true.

"If we dont get a deal we want, we are prepared to walk away" - the EU has never said it is prepared to walk away or anything of the kind, but it is clear from their firm negotiating position that they are, if necessary, prepared to walk away.

"The big [German etc] will make sure that the EU has to have a deal" - again, the EU does not comment on the internal pressures on the UK govt, but it is fully aware of them, and realises that they will apply pressure, sooner or later.

"No deal is better than a bad deal" - and this one really explains the EU position. It isnt that they dont understand that the loonies have taken over, its that the EU realises that for them, no deal really is better than a bad deal. For the UK, this is just a vague and meaningless phrase. But for the EU it is existential.

As has been pointed out many times, the EU cannot survive if the benefits of the single market are available to a third country without any of the obligations.

So basically the EU have looked at what the UK are talking about, and decided that the general landing zones they have set out are the only things that could work. Therefore, it really doesnt matter whether the personell in the UK Govt are rational or not, what matters is that the EU will only do a deal on those terms, or not at all.

I was referring to Irish FF/FG government (our "masters") rather than the EU there.

I think the EU negotiating team/other EU governments would be more likely to have a clear eyed view of the British and a better read of their current nuttiness
(and incompetence) level.

The problem is, mad as it may be, it looks like the British either buy into their own bullshít rhetoric (as you outlined it above) or won't be able to swallow the political cost of backing down from it in time for an agreement with the EU, which produces the same outcome.

edit: I suppose the other option is they somehow want to bring on the "no deal" + Covid 19 ****storm + chaos that seems to be brewing up for January but I don't really believe that!

CelticRambler

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

So basically the EU have looked at what the UK are talking about, and decided that the general landing zones they have set out are the only things that could work.

... and funnily enough, those landing zones bear an uncanny resemblance to those laid out on the "Barnier Staircase" so, so long ago.

Literary tangent: it's quite ironic to be talking about metaphorical landing zones when that drone video of lorries parked on the physical landing zone in Manston Airport is doing the rounds.

Jizique

https://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1341482469929984002

Another extended piece from Tony; Christmas Eve a possibility