Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

From TC's thread linked above:

one official raised the possibility that the text is now 2,000 pages long, including annexes

Hmm. Are we going to start taking bets on who amongst the Current Administration will think such text is important enough to read before voting to ratify it?

looksee

Lovely story about the Kent Sikh community organising and providing meals for the stuck lorry drivers.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PadraigBelton/status/1341432039787147274

Tell me how

looksee wrote: »

Lovely story about the Kent Sikh community organising and providing meals for the stuck lorry drivers.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PadraigBelton/status/1341432039787147274

Yeah, no sign of Farage, Daniel Kawczynski, the EDL or the likes on the front lines in Dover now.

No surprise of course.

View

tanko wrote: »

Yeah they've already left but until a trade deal is finalised we won't know how close or not a relationship they have with the EU in the future.
Surely some degree of reality will have to prevail in London.

Actually we do know that they have left, so their relationship is not going to be a close one. They aren’t going to be present when decisions that will effect them are being made and that they won’t follow the Norwegian or Swiss models.

And, no, some degree of reality does not have to prevail. Pandering to the xenophobic element has paid massive electoral dividends for the Conservatives and they aren’t going to abandon a winning formula.

View

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I dont think theyre thinking along those lines at all. As with all Brexit rhetoric, the British say things but dont really mean it, and the EU means it but they dont really say it.

"They need us more than we need them" - the EU has never said this, but the fact that they are better able to weather a few months of no deal if it means a better deal long term, is true.

"If we dont get a deal we want, we are prepared to walk away" - the EU has never said it is prepared to walk away or anything of the kind, but it is clear from their firm negotiating position that they are, if necessary, prepared to walk away.

"The big [German etc] will make sure that the EU has to have a deal" - again, the EU does not comment on the internal pressures on the UK govt, but it is fully aware of them, and realises that they will apply pressure, sooner or later.

"No deal is better than a bad deal" - and this one really explains the EU position. It isnt that they dont understand that the loonies have taken over, its that the EU realises that for them, no deal really is better than a bad deal. For the UK, this is just a vague and meaningless phrase. But for the EU it is existential.

As has been pointed out many times, the EU cannot survive if the benefits of the single market are available to a third country without any of the obligations.

So basically the EU have looked at what the UK are talking about, and decided that the general landing zones they have set out are the only things that could work. Therefore, it really doesnt matter whether the personell in the UK Govt are rational or not, what matters is that the EU will only do a deal on those terms, or not at all.

In other words, the EU has had bona fide reasons to walk away from the negotiations as they have been characterised by theatrics from the start.

Once that is accepted, then the rest of the E.U. and Ireland in particular should have been planning for no deal and a hard border with NI. Ireland and the EU’s failure to do so has just played right into the Brexiter mindset. They regard all attempts at “reasonableness” as just being signs of weakness and the weaker you appear, the less willing they are to compromise.

AutoTuning

Well basically if they cause a hard border, they’ll be dealing with the wrath of Irish America and an Irish American president, which is often far far less nuanced and understanding of U.K. positions than we are in Ireland. It’s not even a phenomenon we necessarily have any control over as it’s how Irish America responds to the GFA being breached.

CelticRambler

View wrote: »

Ireland and the EU’s failure to do so has just played right into the Brexiter mindset. They regard all attempts at “reasonableness” as just being signs of weakness and the weaker you appear, the less willing they are to compromise.

If that were the case, then the events of the last two days have conclusively demonstrated that the EU (through Member State France) is anything but weak.

Word here in France last night/this morning regarding the re-opening of the Channel for freight is that, drum-roll please [checks history books; checks track record of Johnson administration in 2020] ... you can't trust the Brits - not even to accurately and reliably carry out a Covid test, let alone tell people what's really going on.

Right now, there's an testing arrangement in place to allow truckers back into France, and others with a valid reason to enter the territory (mostly French citizens coming home for Christmas ... :rolleyes: ) but with the volume of tests to be administered, the wait-time for the results and the inevitable unexpected positives that show up, the chaos in Kent is going to continue until Jan 1st, at which point the UK defaults to full non-EU status with all that that implies for the movement of both goods and people.

rock22

From a UK perspective, it makes sense to wait until the last possible moment, Dec 31st to finalise the deal. There will be no reap delay in house of commons endorsing the agreement and up to the last minute the EU might still move on some points.
If this delay causes chaos in the EU, with fall out for European Parliament Council and Commission then the UK would see that as a benefit.

As the possible date for EP agreement has already passed, would it not make more sense for Barnier to step back for now and offer to de available in New Year if UK wish to continue talking?

Silent Running

I was reading through a forum totally unrelated to Brexit or politics (RC models) and came across this gem, posted from a member in the UK. The poster obviously doesn't understand that the "giving up Brexit" ship has long since sailed.

"Talking about Governments here, not individuals...
IMHO, currently, the French are trying to 'punish' UK for disallowing them fishing from UK waters and using the 'new strain' Covid-19 as an excuse to blockade the ports and create disruption to scare British people into giving up Brexit.

You know how British react when bullied (which is the ongoing essence of European Union megalomaniacs behaviour that we are ultimately rejecting)... not in our nature to back down."

listermint

Silent Running wrote: »

I was reading through a forum totally unrelated to Brexit or politics (RC models) and came across this gem, posted from a member in the UK. The poster obviously doesn't understand that the "giving up Brexit" ship has long since sailed.

"Talking about Governments here, not individuals...
IMHO, currently, the French are trying to 'punish' UK for disallowing them fishing from UK waters and using the 'new strain' Covid-19 as an excuse to blockade the ports and create disruption to scare British people into giving up Brexit.

You know how British react when bullied (which is the ongoing essence of European Union megalomaniacs behaviour that we are ultimately rejecting)... not in our nature to back down."

In fairness though and often not thought about. Troll farms infect every and any forum to throw ideas on. It's an all fronts campaign. It doesnt work if you limit it to daily mail comments or politics discussions. It's on mom's to be forums, RC forums , car clubs. They provide an Alies voice to jingoism. It's subtle thought manipulation.

Can be difficult to know what's a genuine person and a multiple account holder or hijacked credentials from long expired users.

CelticRambler

rock22 wrote: »

From a UK perspective, it makes sense to wait until the last possible moment, Dec 31st to finalise the deal. There will be no reap delay in house of commons endorsing the agreement and up to the last minute the EU might still move on some points.
If this delay causes chaos in the EU ...

Ehhh ... What?

Some serious delusion there in that post. The EU has not moved in any significant way since 2016. UK said it wanted to Leave; EU said "go on then, here are your options for a new relationship." 2020, 8 days to the end of the transition phase, EU is saying "you've left, here are your options for a new relationship: see previous slide"

On the other side of the equation - no delay in the HoC endorsing an agreement? That would seem to fly in the face of all recent precedent, starting with the DUP's hissy-fit as soon as they heard about May's original WA, and right up to the HoC overturning the Lords' amendment to the IMB overturning the HoC's vote to break international law.

As I pointed out in a previous post, the EU doesn't ever close the door on negotiations, even after the ink is dry. They've been negotiating with the Swiss for 45 years. New Year's Eve 2020 can come and go; it'll be "just another day" in the history of the EU's trade talks with third countries.

Silent Running

listermint wrote: »

In fairness though and often not thought about. Troll farms infect every and any forum to throw ideas on. It's an all fronts campaign. It doesnt work if you limit it to daily mail comments or politics discussions. It's on mom's to be forums, RC forums , car clubs. They provide an Alies voice to jingoism. It's subtle thought manipulation.

Can be difficult to know what's a genuine person and a multiple account holder or hijacked credentials from long expired users.

From reading the forum, this is a normal poster, and normally quite knowledgeable on the subject of RC signal boosting and the like.

bocaman

Nationalism is a peculiar disease. It contaminates common sense and warps all sense of reality. The Tory party achieved its aim of Brexit. While the people face the consequences the grandees will remain safe and sound. A worse case scenario will have them seeking out a scape goat and I fear things will get an awful lot tougher for foreigners living in Britain.

timetogo1

Saw this on Twitter today. I'm not sure if it's already been posted

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/18/belgian-minister-mistakenly-reveals-prices-eu-negotiated-covid/

It's behind a paywall but the gist is the EU paid $18 per dose for the vaccine. The UK didn't want to be a part of the EU scheme. They paid $37 per dose. Both parties both ordered 40m doses.

CelticRambler

Saw that earlier on a twitter thread, in the depths of which more figures were bandied about that seem to clarify that out of that 40m doses, the UK has only drawn down 7m doses (one vaccination per 17 people, based on two doses per person) while the EU has upped its order to 160m (one vaccination per 5.5 people).

fash

rock22 wrote: »

From a UK perspective, it makes sense to wait until the last possible moment, Dec 31st to finalise the deal. There will be no reap delay in house of commons endorsing the agreement and up to the last minute the EU might still move on some points.
If this delay causes chaos in the EU, with fall out for European Parliament Council and Commission then the UK would see that as a benefit.

As the possible date for EP agreement has already passed, would it not make more sense for Barnier to step back for now and offer to de available in New Year if UK wish to continue talking?

I think this is wrong: UK government more focused on optics and its supporters than EU. Johnson wants to "fight long and hard and succeed against daunting opposition". Allowing a certain amount of UK chaos reinforces how "hard" Johnson is: "your lives and livelihoods have been seriously impacted - but that was a sacrifice I was willing to make" etc. Johnson works primarily based on what narrative is more heroic - fighting hard, getting some disruption so the people know what could have been - but then pulling it back from the edge to get a (crappy) deal is his best available narrative.

breezy1985

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The only way one could explain the political suicide that tories are approaching is if they are confident in their gamble that the press will not eat them come January. The biased press in uk that got us all here is the only check and balances left in the oligarchical dystopian uk of 21st century, let that thought percolate for a minute

It's not just the press that may not hang them a lot of Joe Public Brexiters who were very loud and arrogant before and after the vote will tie themselves in knots in an attempt to blame anyone but themselves

Strazdas

fash wrote: »

I think this is wrong: UK government more focused on optics and its supporters than EU. Johnson wants to "fight long and hard and succeed against daunting opposition". Allowing a certain amount of UK chaos reinforces how "hard" Johnson is: "your lives and livelihoods have been seriously impacted - but that was a sacrifice I was willing to make" etc. Johnson works primarily based on what narrative is more heroic - fighting hard, getting some disruption so the people know what could have been - but then pulling it back from the edge to get a (crappy) deal is his best available narrative.

Indeed, it's barely a "government" at all. Johnson is permanently in campaign mode, as if a general election is two weeks away. Every decision is political, common sense doesn't come into it.

astrofool

Strazdas wrote: »

Indeed, it's barely a "government" at all. Johnson is permanently in campaign mode, as if a general election is two weeks away. Every decision is political, common sense doesn't come into it.

He's just been following the trump playbook, will probably do better out of it then trump did as well (not hard given how stupid and obnoxious trump is).

10000maniacs

looksee wrote: »

Lovely story about the Kent Sikh community organising and providing meals for the stuck lorry drivers.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PadraigBelton/status/1341432039787147274

Good guys. Can't see any of the Brexiter factions organizing similar drives.

Thargor

Imagine if you could record an hour of what we're seeing on Sky News this morning and send it back in time to the referendum campaign...

cameramonkey

fash wrote: »

I think this is wrong: UK government more focused on optics and its supporters than EU. Johnson wants to "fight long and hard and succeed against daunting opposition". Allowing a certain amount of UK chaos reinforces how "hard" Johnson is: "your lives and livelihoods have been seriously impacted - but that was a sacrifice I was willing to make" etc. Johnson works primarily based on what narrative is more heroic - fighting hard, getting some disruption so the people know what could have been - but then pulling it back from the edge to get a (crappy) deal is his best available narrative.

That seems to be the tactic, the climb down will be pretty soon but will be declared as a victory against all the odds. The chicken have come home to roost for the Brexit mob but it turns out that it will be a massive turkey.
It will be fun to watch as the brexit loons will lose there minds over being trapped by the dirty perfidious continentals. Great to be alive in such interesting times.

PokeHerKing

Deal done according to Sky news sources

ElJeffe

Deal done according to Sky News?

Nothing on the Sky News app.

BonnieSituation

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Deal done according to Sky news sources

As good as they have been, but with their political editor on leave atm and with Faisal Islam at the BBC now, I think I'll wait on Tony Connelly.

That being said, I have a small holding of blue chip shares that I've been looking to offload this week and they have just shot up. So there's something a-stirring.

rock22

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ehhh ... What?

Some serious delusion there in that post. The EU has not moved in any significant way since 2016. UK said it wanted to Leave; EU said "go on then, here are your options for a new relationship." 2020, 8 days to the end of the transition phase, EU is saying "you've left, here are your options for a new relationship: see previous slide"

On the other side of the equation - no delay in the HoC endorsing an agreement? That would seem to fly in the face of all recent precedent, starting with the DUP's hissy-fit as soon as they heard about May's original WA, and right up to the HoC overturning the Lords' amendment to the IMB overturning the HoC's vote to break international law.

As I pointed out in a previous post, the EU doesn't ever close the door on negotiations, even after the ink is dry. They've been negotiating with the Swiss for 45 years. New Year's Eve 2020 can come and go; it'll be "just another day" in the history of the EU's trade talks with third countries.

At the risk of being called delusional again:-
The EU negotiator, Mr. Barnier has stated that the EU has moved but perhaps you know better.
What is the advantage to Johnson or making agreement now rathewr than at the eleventh hour. I think very little, his government knows what is on offer and what they can agree on. Thet can agree on 28th Dec, rec all hoc and pass it .
Mrs. May had to deal with a minority government, Johnson has no such worry.
It might also suit his spin to the UK public , i.e. "that they held out to the last minute to get the very best deal etc."

On out side, and I fully support the EU, we are talking about implementing the deal without European parliament approval, just to suit the British time table. That , to me , shows a very cavalier attitude to our democratic structures.

cameramonkey

The sell out is on, this is going to drive the hard core brexiteers into a frenzy. They will blame everyone but themselves.
Fun times.

ElJeffe

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Deal done according to Sky news sources

Can you link to this source. I see nothing anywhere suggesting a deal has been done.

PokeHerKing

ElJeffe wrote: »

Can you link to this source. I see nothing anywhere suggesting a deal has been done.

Sky news channel

some random drunk

On the Sky News ticker " Reuters reporting that an EU diplomat says a trade deal is imminent and could be announced as early as today"