Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch

Were they reading Tony Connelly's Twitter feed?

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1341762205038112768

ElJeffe

some random drunk wrote: »

On the Sky News ticker " Reuters reporting that an EU diplomat says a trade deal is imminent and could be announced as early as today"

So no deal has been done. Thanks

10000maniacs

Great, it means less of a nightmare shipping goods to and from the continent. That was always the big issue. We would have been fine with Brexit otherwise.
BTW, Johnsons smile at the press conference 3 days ago when asked about Brexit said it all.

RobMc59

rock22 wrote: »

At the risk of being called delusional again:-
The EU negotiator, Mr. Barnier has stated that the EU has moved but perhaps you know better.
What is the advantage to Johnson or making agreement now rathewr than at the eleventh hour. I think very little, his government knows what is on offer and what they can agree on. Thet can agree on 28th Dec, rec all hoc and pass it .
Mrs. May had to deal with a minority government, Johnson has no such worry.
It might also suit his spin to the UK public , i.e. "that they held out to the last minute to get the very best deal etc."

On out side, and I fully support the EU, we are talking about implementing the deal without European parliament approval, just to suit the British time table. That , to me , shows a very cavalier attitude to our democratic structures.

You aren't delusional,it's universally known that both parties have moved but you are dealing with many posters here who have maintained the UK will fold like a cheap tent for years or will be spread eagled over a barrel or grovelling for mercy.
It's great news if a deal has been agreed which allows everyone to move on.

An Ciarraioch

Some developments on fish, apparently:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1341767602134245377

trellheim

peston reporting its done

Ministers are hearing free trade deal with EU has been agreed though nothing formally confirmed yet and no cabinet convened yet

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1341767457032331264


NEVER thought I'd post that.

PeadarCo

RobMc59 wrote: »

You aren't delusional,it's universally known that both parties have moved but you are dealing with many posters here who have maintained the UK will fold like a cheap tent for years or will be spread eagled over a barrel or grovelling for mercy.
It's great news if a deal has been agreed which allows everyone to move on.

It depends on what you are talking about.

On the big picture issues the UK has folded like a tent ie the talk sequencing, Irish border, post Brexit UK liabilities, unhindered aceess to the EU Customs Union and single market etc.

On smaller or the more detailed discussions there has been give and take. Even within stuff already agreed like post Brexit payments by the UK there has been give and take. But that's the nature of any trade deal.

So the EU hasn't gotten everything its wanted however the UK has got virtually nothing when compared to the promises put forth by Brexiters. Regardless of if there is a deal the UK will be outside the EU customs Union and single market. That's a massive climb down on what was promised by Brexiters. Even the deal that has been agreed will still cause a lot of damage to the UK economy. The impact of which will only hit home in the coming weeks.

kowloon

So where do financial services and the likes figure in any deal here?

RobMc59

PeadarCo wrote: »

It depends on what you are talking about.

On the big picture issues the UK has folded like a tent ie the talk sequencing, Irish border, post Brexit UK liabilities, unhindered aceess to the EU Customs Union and single market etc.

On smaller or the more detailed discussions there has been give and take. Even within stuff already agreed like post Brexit payments by the UK there has been give and take. But that's the nature of any trade deal.

So the EU hasn't gotten everything its wanted however the UK has got virtually nothing when compared to the promises put forth by Brexiters. Regardless of if there is a deal the UK will be outside the EU customs Union and single market. That's a massive climb down on what was promised by Brexiters. Even the deal that has been agreed will still cause a lot of damage to the UK economy. The impact of which will only hit home in the coming weeks.

Not everyone here in Britain cares about what brexiteers think and until the full details of any deal are released no one can say who has conceded what.
I was disappointed when the UK left the EU but will say this,if the UK has negotiated a deal which gives them access to the EU market relatively tariff free and allows them to wheel and deal on an international scale it will soar imo.

breezy1985

PeadarCo wrote: »

It depends on what you are talking about.

On the big picture issues the UK has folded like a tent ie the talk sequencing, Irish border, post Brexit UK liabilities, unhindered aceess to the EU Customs Union and single market etc.

On smaller or the more detailed discussions there has been give and take. Even within stuff already agreed like post Brexit payments by the UK there has been give and take. But that's the nature of any trade deal.

So the EU hasn't gotten everything its wanted however the UK has got virtually nothing when compared to the promises put forth by Brexiters. Regardless of if there is a deal the UK will be outside the EU customs Union and single market. That's a massive climb down on what was promised by Brexiters. Even the deal that has been agreed will still cause a lot of damage to the UK economy. The impact of which will only hit home in the coming weeks.

Given that the initial plan for Brexit was going over and telling the EU exactly what the deal was gonna be and getting everything they wanted cause ya know " rule Britannia" and all that, any sort of realistic deal was gonna be a huge climb down or tent folding when held against that nonsense

Antwerpian

kowloon wrote: »

So where do financial services and the likes figure in any deal here?

The city doesn't care about a finance deal, This deal lets the UK push with tax cuts for the city.
Remember that of the £300bn city PROFIT
£270bn is non EU,
Of the £30bn EU related profit £20bn doesn't require passporting rights,
Of the £10bn which can be controlled by the EU the most important is derivatives trading, this market was created by the city they were already under attack by the EU with proposed restrictions and taxes.
The city will dump this market on Paris and charge them for the dealing platforms

If the city was opposed ti Brexit it would not happen

The city have never cared about ordinary people and never will

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

You aren't delusional,it's universally known that both parties have moved but you are dealing with many posters here who have maintained the UK will fold like a cheap tent for years or will be spread eagled over a barrel or grovelling for mercy.
It's great news if a deal has been agreed which allows everyone to move on.

I know it's difficult for Brexiters like yourself to see things outside of win/lose, up/down, black/white but, no one in here has ever discussed Brexit on those terms, except Brexiters like yourself.

What you might have done is confused a sense of exasperation, exhaustion and disdain for the country the UK has become for that sort of attitude. Which, given the inability of Brexiters to understand nuance, is not really surprising.

That you think that we get to move on is rather hilarious.

The EU have been steadfast in what was available to a third country and whatever you think has happened, the EU has likely not budged very much from the famous "steps" slide.

Tell me, when is Ireland going to be shoved under that bus for the French wine makers and the German car makers?

peter kern

PeadarCo wrote: »

It depends on what you are talking about.

On the big picture issues the UK has folded like a tent ie the talk sequencing, Irish border, post Brexit UK liabilities, unhindered aceess to the EU Customs Union and single market etc.

On smaller or the more detailed discussions there has been give and take. Even within stuff already agreed like post Brexit payments by the UK there has been give and take. But that's the nature of any trade deal.

So the EU hasn't gotten everything its wanted however the UK has got virtually nothing when compared to the promises put forth by Brexiters. Regardless of if there is a deal the UK will be outside the EU customs Union and single market. That's a massive climb down on what was promised by Brexiters. Even the deal that has been agreed will still cause a lot of damage to the UK economy. The impact of which will only hit home in the coming weeks.

the bigger question is when will they rejoin.
its still a bit early before everything is ratifyied but we can say the eu comes out of this negotions stronger than it went in. apart from the fact that losing the uk, obviously made us weaker on a world stage and it does cost us too, but i think everybody has seen the advantages being inside the eu during the negotiations

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not everyone here in Britain cares about what brexiteers think and until the full details of any deal are released no one can say who has conceded what.
I was disappointed when the UK left the EU but will say this,if the UK has negotiated a deal which gives them access to the EU market relatively tariff free and allows them to wheel and deal on an international scale it will soar imo.

How will it "soar" in your opinion?

What was holding it back in the EU?

Shelga

Was it always known that fish would be linked with any trade deal? Presume this is not the case with countries like Canada and Japan who do trade deals with the EU.

If it was always known, what did Brexiters expect to happen? Seeing as they knew exactly what they voted for?

Enzokk

kowloon wrote: »

So where do financial services and the likes figure in any deal here?

Someone will read the 2000 pages of the deal and be able to tell. I see problems in the next few months it the HoC rushes this, but like the WA there will be lots of saber rattling but in the end the UK will abide by what they signed.

Nody

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not everyone here in Britain cares about what brexiteers think and until the full details of any deal are released no one can say who has conceded what.
I was disappointed when the UK left the EU but will say this,if the UK has negotiated a deal which gives them access to the EU market relatively tariff free and allows them to wheel and deal on an international scale it will soar imo.

Expect to be disappointed then; the problem is never the tariffs, it's the compliance. Canada has something silly like 99% tariff free trade with EU yet the trade did not suddenly quadruple because of it. This is of course ignoring the simple fact most of UK's trade is in services something which is highly unlikely to be covered in the FTA. Why is that a problem? In one word, London. Before London was in EU and had unique access to sell their products compared to New York, Singapore etc. Now they are simply another third party country like everyone else and in reality New York etc. have a better deal than UK currently due to data privacy laws and authorities etc.

But once again that's not the problem with your statement; UK have been allowed to "wheel and deal" on an international scale for a year now. Care to mention how many unique new perks UK have gotten vs. how many copies of EU trade deals as interim holders? Should we talk about the Japan deal which to date has the only 10 new line items which UK have not exported for at least 3 years? And was tilted in Japans favor with over 80% of the value? And is dependent on EU not using it's cheese quotas? So do please share; exactly how is UK going to be "soaring" when it's deals to date have been, well, lead balloons to be quite frank.

Widdensushi

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not everyone here in Britain cares about what brexiteers think and until the full details of any deal are released no one can say who has conceded what.
I was disappointed when the UK left the EU but will say this,if the UK has negotiated a deal which gives them access to the EU market relatively tariff free and allows them to wheel and deal on an international scale it will soar imo.

If they get that deal there will be other countries leaving the eu as there is little advantage being in it.

PeadarCo

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not everyone here in Britain cares about what brexiteers think and until the full details of any deal are released no one can say who has conceded what.
I was disappointed when the UK left the EU but will say this,if the UK has negotiated a deal which gives them access to the EU market relatively tariff free and allows them to wheel and deal on an international scale it will soar imo.

The problem is as another poster has pointed out tarrifs are not the problem. The biggest challenge is rules and regulations. The reason fundamentally the European Commission and Parliament exist is to manage all the non tariff stuff. As the EU Single market and Customs Union have developed this necessitated the creation and empowerment of the those 2 bodies(particularly the parliament as time has gone on).

The key part of any deal that has or has not been agreed we already know. The UK will be outside both the Single Market and Customs Union because the UK doesn't want to be in both. That automatically means huge disruption for the UK on 1st of Jan. If want to look at the challenges of being outside this take the example of the Covid vaccines and all the different approvals companies need to get for each vaccine and all the paperwork that goes with that. That's the type of additional paperwork facing UK businesses in the new year with all the time and money that goes with that. And as other posters have pointed out the 21st century UK economy is primarily service based which trade deals don't focus on. It's not the 19th century even a tarrif. free deal is a massive downgrade on EU membership. If we're to compare it to the promises made by Brexiters its an absolute failure of Brexit(well an inevitable failure).

peter kern

Widdensushi wrote: »

If they get that deal there will be other countries leaving the eu as there is little advantage being in it.

did you hear any country during the negotiantions say this ...
france and denmark said better no deal than giving them the fishing rights but no nation as far as iam concerned has said we are leaving .

Widdensushi

peter kern wrote: »

did you hear any country during the negotiantions say this ...
france and denmark said better no deal than giving them the fishing rights but no nation as far as iam concerned has said we are leaving .

The post I answered surmised about them getting a deal relatively tariff free, I don't think that is likely, if they got a deal like that rather then being a net contributor to the EU for the foreseeable then leaving would be the smart option for many, I don't think they will get that deal.

RobMc59

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I know it's difficult for Brexiters like yourself to see things outside of win/lose, up/down, black/white but, no one in here has ever discussed Brexit on those terms, except Brexiters like yourself.

What you might have done is confused a sense of exasperation, exhaustion and disdain for the country the UK has become for that sort of attitude. Which, given the inability of Brexiters to understand nuance, is not really surprising.

That you think that we get to move on is rather hilarious.

The EU have been steadfast in what was available to a third country and whatever you think has happened, the EU has likely not budged very much from the famous "steps" slide.

Tell me, when is Ireland going to be shoved under that bus for the French wine makers and the German car makers?

As I've said about you before bonnie,the 'off the shelf 'definition of anyone who critises the EU is incorrect as is your misguided assertion that the EU hasn't given ground to secure a deal (as has the UK)
Personally,I'm happy and relieved IF a deal has been agreed and don't give a hoot if the UK didn't get everything it wanted-that was never going to happen anyway.

RobMc59

BonnieSituation wrote: »

How will it "soar" in your opinion?

What was holding it back in the EU?

I didn't say it was being held back in theEU.I would have preferred to remain in the EU.
I believe if the UK has a reasonable relationship with the EU but can strike deals itself around the world it will do just fine.

timetogo1

RobMc59 wrote: »

I didn't say it was being held back in theEU.I would have preferred to remain in the EU.
I believe if the UK has a reasonable relationship with the EU but can strike deals itself around the world it will do just fine.

Sounds reasonable but not very likely.
So far it hasn't been able to improve on any deals with other countries. The deals it has made have mostly been copy and paste and temporary.
Not really what the brexiters promised during the referendum (but what's new)

An Ciarraioch

Habemus concordat?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1341803169341435905

theguzman

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Habemus concordat?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1341803169341435905

No white smoke yet, I won't hold my breath until January 1st that's for sure after everything we witnessed to date.

fash

. honestly!
(Hope mods ok with a one word tweet here- what else to say?)

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

I didn't say it was being held back in theEU.I would have preferred to remain in the EU.
I believe if the UK has a reasonable relationship with the EU but can strike deals itself around the world it will do just fine.

I asked how it will soar. You said it. Back it up.

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

As I've said about you before bonnie,the 'off the shelf 'definition of anyone who critises the EU is incorrect as is your misguided assertion that the EU hasn't given ground to secure a deal (as has the UK)
Personally,I'm happy and relieved IF a deal has been agreed and don't give a hoot if the UK didn't get everything it wanted-that was never going to happen anyway.

Do you want to try that again?

RobMc59

Nody wrote: »

Expect to be disappointed then; the problem is never the tariffs, it's the compliance. Canada has something silly like 99% tariff free trade with EU yet the trade did not suddenly quadruple because of it. This is of course ignoring the simple fact most of UK's trade is in services something which is highly unlikely to be covered in the FTA. Why is that a problem? In one word, London. Before London was in EU and had unique access to sell their products compared to New York, Singapore etc. Now they are simply another third party country like everyone else and in reality New York etc. have a better deal than UK currently due to data privacy laws and authorities etc.

But once again that's not the problem with your statement; UK have been allowed to "wheel and deal" on an international scale for a year now. Care to mention how many unique new perks UK have gotten vs. how many copies of EU trade deals as interim holders? Should we talk about the Japan deal which to date has the only 10 new line items which UK have not exported for at least 3 years? And was tilted in Japans favor with over 80% of the value? And is dependent on EU not using it's cheese quotas? So do please share; exactly how is UK going to be "soaring" when it's deals to date have been, well, lead balloons to be quite frank.

If and when a trade deal is agreed between the UK and EU i would think that's when the UK will begin looking to secure deals around the world in earnest.
For example,a deal with the US is a possibility.