Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Lumen

This is probably good news from the completely warped perspective of December 2020, but stepping back it's only the second-worst outcome from remain, BRINO, soft brexit, whatever this is, no deal.

From an economic perspective it is the same class of success as as a failed suicide attempt (with apologies for the crass metaphor).

I await Tony Connelly condensing down the deal into bite sized chunks for my tiny brain to digest.

Nody

salonfire wrote: »

Why do people view the extra paperwork and form filling needed on the British side as some massive obstacle than will hold back their businesses?

Because unlike you we actually know what it entails? I've been involved with export/import to Switzerland & Norway which have had this requirement for decades. It is not digital and it is in no way automated and it is a huge pain in the behind on a good day.

Everything is computerized, the form filling will be online which can be completed by automation. Once the automation program is working, minimal human work is needed.

Nope it's not.

With mobile data and tablets, the information and 'paperwork' are in the truckers hands in a small device and will come with QR codes. A quick scan of the QR code and away he goes to Europe.

Nope, sorry not how it works in reality. This is before we even start talking about the custom sampling etc. that will happen as well and God forgive you if they find anything not suppose to be there.

Paperwork is not going to mean some trucker sitting in a cab rifling through reams of paper looking for a particular slip of paper while an exasperated custom officer looks on.

Actually yes that's exactly what it means, I've had trucks stuck for days because of it because the sending site could not find the paperwork either. Except the custom officer is not going to stand there and look on, they will be in an office with a queue handling other trucks while the truck sits at the border parking lot not allowed to leave the country in question until the paperwork is found and approved and only during office hours.

Britain could do very well indeed. Access to the Single Market tariff-free without the EU payments means more money in London.

Yup, and 350 million a week to NHS while you're at it, right? Sorry this may seem rude but you're honestly clueless how painful and expensive that "trifle of paperwork" actually is in practice. As someone who's been involved in it in a company that's got a department dedicated to optimizing transport in Europe alone and spends hundreds of millions of dollars a year on systems there is not an automated system that does what you think it does. That is exactly why you need all the custom agents, custom agencies tho support companies at the border to speed up the paper work handling etc.

MrMusician18

salonfire wrote: »

Not at the beginning, no.

But it will evolve to become more automated and easier.

Yes, more cost but a tiny fraction of cost hardly worth talking about. Paying a shipping clerk minimum wage to take care of the paperwork is not going to be insurmountable and will result in increased employment in clerks and customs officers. Yes, extra cost on the State, but ultimately salaries that remains in the UK rather than to the EU .

For a large operator with volume it might not be a huge cost but most SMEs are not huge volume. A three person importing operation will now need an additional 2 staff members just to deal with customs. Worst of all is that it doesn't add any value for the customer - it's all essentially busywork.

Seth Brundle

salonfire wrote: »

If someone showed you once how to do it, you'd be able to do it yourself thereafter.

You make it sound like filling out a simple form: it's not. A small error could result in cargo being refused entry and causing large losses for the company.
Middlemen make money by completing the paperwork for a reason!

salonfire

Nody wrote: »

Nope, sorry not how it works in reality.

Sounds like an area ripe for improvement and automation in the coming years then. Let's see if the UK can improve on it and make it more seamless on their side.

timetogo1

We've gone full circle. From the huge beauracracy of the EU to it's only a bit of paper work for every trucker to fill out (and the rest).

Seth Brundle

salonfire wrote: »

Sounds like an area ripe for improvement and automation in the coming years then. Let's see if the UK can improve on it and make it more seamless on their side.

How will a company exporting goods from the UK convince EU customs to use the new UK automated system?

Igotadose

salonfire wrote: »

Sounds like an area ripe for improvement and automation in the coming years then. Let's see if the UK can improve on it and make it more seamless on their side.

And in the meantime, enjoy your airlifted oranges at Tesco for 10x the usual price

fly_agaric

salonfire wrote: »

Why do people view the extra paperwork and form filling needed on the British side as some massive obstacle than will hold back their businesses?

Everything is computerized, the form filling will be online which can be completed by automation. Once the automation program is working, minimal human work is needed.

With mobile data and tablets, the information and 'paperwork' are in the truckers hands in a small device and will come with QR codes. A quick scan of the QR code and away he goes to Europe.

Paperwork is not going to mean some trucker sitting in a cab rifling through reams of paper looking for a particular slip of paper while an exasperated custom officer looks on.

Britain could do very well indeed. Access to the Single Market tariff-free without the EU payments means more money in London.

The EU folded like a cheap tent.

Purely IMO...like with everything the "small guy" gets hammered the worst.
The customs administration is not quite as simple as you suggest + I think is enough on its own to make exporting to the EU a no go for a smaller UK company, same as they probably would not be exporting to US or Asia.
For a large business it is just another fixed admin. type cost/delay that can be factored into their prices/profit margin once things settle.

For them, my reading was "no deal" meant absence of a special "UK" agreement on rules around what goods + services [if any] UK can export into the EU over and above a normal 3rd country (+ "rules of origin" to define a UK export into the EU etc.) and a very large "standard" (WTO) % tariff on some goods.
So if that is avoided by any agreement they (large UK companies exporting goods) will manage, even if damaged somewhat.

edit: I don't think the UK can do "very well" out of any deal made, it is just degrees of harm they are looking at, with no deal being a disaster really.

MrMusician18

salonfire wrote: »

Sounds like an area ripe for improvement and automation in the coming years then. Let's see if the UK can improve on it and make it more seamless on their side.

Maybe it will improve in time, but given that a huge amount of trade is with China at the moment and systems haven't been streamlined yet, i wouldn't hold out much hope in the medium term.

That said, maybe the Brits can crack this conundrum with a solution that's evaded traders up to now.

breezy1985

salonfire wrote: »

Not at the beginning, no.

But it will evolve to become more automated and easier.

Yes, more cost but a tiny fraction of cost hardly worth talking about. Paying a shipping clerk minimum wage to take care of the paperwork is not going to be insurmountable and will result in increased employment in clerks and customs officers. Yes, extra cost on the State, but ultimately salaries that remains in the UK rather than to the EU .

Is this the same magic technology that is gonna solve the Irish border problem

volchitsa

timetogo1 wrote: »

We've gone full circle. From the huge beauracracy of the EU to it's only a bit of paper work for every trucker to fill out (and the rest).

Is there ANY chance anyone in Britain will ever make that connection though?

"The EU is a bloated bureaucracy filling in endless paperwork that companies could easily do themselves when they export or import?"

Seth Brundle

timetogo1 wrote: »

We've gone full circle. From the huge beauracracy of the EU to it's only a bit of paper work for every trucker to fill out (and the rest).

Purely because those calling for change had absolutely no idea of how good they had it. Unfortunately it appears that since the vote, many still have not informed themselves on the advantages of being a member of the EU and are happy to exist in the imperial bliss put forwards by the English gutter press.

salonfire

timetogo1 wrote: »

We've gone full circle. From the huge beauracracy of the EU to it's only a bit of paper work for every trucker to fill out (and the rest).

As often quoted here, Ireland exports more to China and the US than the UK. Shipping and customs doesn't seem to be a problem then.

If the UK can get their shipping right, they have full access to the EU tariff and payments free plus other advantages - immigration, repatriation of benefits to people in other EU states, etc.

The EU should have held its ground and let them crash out. They handed the UK a legup which the UK could run away with.

Seth Brundle

breezy1985 wrote: »

Is this the same magic technology that is gonna solve the Irish border problem

There is no Irish border and there never was going to be one. Had the English reneged on the WA then there would have been a British border on the island of Ireland - a British border to the EU.

Nody

salonfire wrote: »

Sounds like an area ripe for improvement and automation in the coming years then. Let's see if the UK can improve on it and make it more seamless on their side.

Well let's correct a few assumptions you're doing; honestly your ignorance is not something to be proud of.

First of all it's not a "minimum salary clerk" doing the job; it's far more complex than that even assuming you have a system on your side to track all the required details. Why? Because the clerk not only need to fill in the form, they need to assess what's the correct code, amount, weight, dry/wet etc. and everything else. There's a reason why custom agencies are not advertising "Are you unemployed and never touched a computer? Joins us!" and rather tend to take people with years of experience being a customer agent (which in turn tends to be between 6 to 12 months minimum training). Fail any part of the form and you can face fines going rapidly beyond hundreds of thousands for a single truck and that's human error mistake; not intentional trying to cheat fines.

Secondly; it does not matter what UK wants to automate because the system that matters is on the EU side. Let's say the UK government suddenly got a perfect system from the unicorn as Christmas gift (keep in mind every UK government system to date has been grossly delayed and failed to do what it was suppose to do) it still is meaningless because the French, Dutch, Spanish etc. system is not integrated to it. Nor are they likely to accept integrations since UK has failed to enforce their own border and hence unlikely to trust them now.

So no, your idea of what it entails is laughable basic; there's a reason why the estimations are for 7.5 billion a year in customs costs. It's not because they all did not think up the idea of an automated system...

54and56

salonfire wrote: »

Why do people view the extra paperwork and form filling needed on the British side as some massive obstacle than will hold back their businesses?

Everything is computerized, the form filling will be online which can be completed by automation. Once the automation program is working, minimal human work is needed.

With mobile data and tablets, the information and 'paperwork' are in the truckers hands in a small device and will come with QR codes. A quick scan of the QR code and away he goes to Europe.

Paperwork is not going to mean some trucker sitting in a cab rifling through reams of paper looking for a particular slip of paper while an exasperated custom officer looks on.

Britain could do very well indeed. Access to the Single Market tariff-free without the EU payments means more money in London.

The EU folded like a cheap tent.

Which is exactly why the UK are recruiting 50,000 customs agents, to do absolutely nothing :D:D

breezy1985

salonfire wrote: »

As often quoted here, Ireland exports more to China and the US than the UK. Shipping and customs doesn't seem to be a problem.

If the UK can get their shipping right, they have full access to the EU tariff and payments free plus other advantages - immigration, repatriation of benefits to people in other EU states, etc.

The EU should have held its ground and let them crash out. They handed the UK a legup which the UK could run away with.

There is no way the UK is coming out of this from a strong position so stop fooling yourself about the logistics of trucks being the key to unlock the dream of New Jerusalem

Detritus70

salonfire wrote: »

Sounds like an area ripe for improvement and automation in the coming years then. Let's see if the UK can improve on it and make it more seamless on their side.

Well, for a person of your intellectual capacity and obvious deep insight and wealth of experience into the matter it should be a doddle for you to singlehandedly revolutionise international trade!
I mean, obviously, the people working in exactly this field are idiots who never even thought about improving the systems they're using, but thankfully you have caught on to it.
Improvements! Of course! Why didn't they think of that!
The world has been waiting for you, don't delay another second, I'm sure you will have turned this whole thing inside out and upside down in a matter of weeks.
The world is saved, the internet expert has arrived!
People will be worshipping statues of you for millennia!

peter kern

Nody wrote: »

Because unlike you we actually know what it entails? I've been involved with export/import to Switzerland & Norway which have had this requirement for decades. It is not digital and it is in no way automated and it is a huge pain in the behind on a good day.

Nope it's not.

Nope, sorry not how it works in reality. This is before we even start talking about the custom sampling etc. that will happen as well and God forgive you if they find anything not suppose to be there.

Actually yes that's exactly what it means, I've had trucks stuck for days because of it because the sending site could not find the paperwork either. Except the custom officer is not going to stand there and look on, they will be in an office with a queue handling other trucks while the truck sits at the border parking lot not allowed to leave the country in question until the paperwork is found and approved and only during office hours.

Yup, and 350 million a week to NHS while you're at it, right? Sorry this may seem rude but you're honestly clueless how painful and expensive that "trifle of paperwork" actually is in practice. As someone who's been involved in it in a company that's got a department dedicated to optimizing transport in Europe alone and spends hundreds of millions of dollars a year on systems there is not an automated system that does what you think it does. That is exactly why you need all the custom agents, custom agencies tho support companies at the border to speed up the paper work handling etc.

few questions here.
obviously switzerland is still a very rich country so how do they make logistics work? i could not think of a country with better infrastucture including traffic , so i guess this is an important part which the uk is 30 years behind.

i guess unlike with switzerland there is a lot of just in time deliveries between uk and eu and here the friction will cost and i would guess those factories will want to be fricitonless and will move their production.


the uk is talking for 4 years how easy this automated form filling will in northern ireland but how long do you think this will take until this is actually reality, the eu seems to think its possible just not in the very near future.

Capt'n Midnight

MrMusician18 wrote: »

For a large operator with volume it might not be a huge cost but most SMEs are not huge volume. A three person importing operation will now need an additional 2 staff members just to deal with customs. Worst of all is that it doesn't add any value for the customer - it's all essentially busywork.

Honda are huge volume.

IT systems and staffing were costed at £2.1m back in 2018 for the 60,000 documents they'll need for the 75% of parts that are imported.

At 4% margin they'll have to sell over £50m of cars to cover the rubber stamping exercise.

That's more the combined turnover of Caterham Cars and the Morgan Motor company. McLaren is the only other UK owned volume car maker.






This bit from that 2018 article shows the new reality for UK parts suppliers. And other export companies. Ad they wind down there'll be less indigenous content which affects of origin and the export market which the foreign owned UK car industry depends on.

Other UK suppliers are already feeling the pinch. Andrew Varga, who runs specialist valves maker Seetru, noticed a 5-10 per cent drop in orders from the EU recently, even as other business grew. Longstanding EU customers sought to protect their supply chains against a Brexit shock, or a change in origin requirements.

“They’ve said they don’t want to talk to us any more, no new products, nothing,” Mr Varga says, staring out of a window. “These manufacturers tend to have long product life-cycles, so once you’re in a product, it’s difficult for them to engineer you out, but then, as the next model comes in, you don’t go into the next model,” he adds. “So, it’s a slow death process. That’s what it is.”

Capt'n Midnight

peter kern wrote: »

few questions here.
obviously switzerland is still a very rich country so how do they make logistics work? i could not think of a country with better infrastucture including traffic , so i guess this is an important part which the uk is 30 years behind.

The Swiss export premium goods and have LOTS of deals with the EU.

The UK exports generic cars that don't sell all that well at home as UK customers prefer imports. Same as the fish really.

Sam Russell

Customs can be horrendous because if a mistake is made the problems can multiply. If you think about it, customs are operated by Revenue - who put the fear of God into most people.

First - get the commodity code correct or the whole truckload is held indefinitely until it is sorted. That can result in fresh produce being dumped, or heavy penalties and long delays.

Then there is the value of the goods. Get that wrong and heavy penalties ensue. The UK got fined billions of Euro for importing cotton jeans from China valued at less than the cost of raw cotton. The fines were backdated.

Then there is the certificate of origin - how much is made here? Tricky, and that gets it from tariff free the huge tariffs, to quotas. Not for the unenlightened.

OK, then there are the standards - the EU standards approved by an EU standards Authority that gives out the EU CE mark. Of course, if the product is modified, does it need recertification? Why not ask the computer - I am sure the automated system can tell you.

Then at the border, your trucker is selected for inspection. That is where the fun starts, because the customs officer can be very helpful or very unhelpful. Any wrong footing can last a long time - it goes on the file. The customs guys are not stupid. Has he got the correct licence for the truck? Has the truck got the correct licence? Insurance?

The customs systems are post-hoc inspectors as well - just because you got away this time, and they catch you next time, they will look back in anger.

If the UK are going to hire 50,000 customs officers, they are going to be working, and the EU will have a similar number who are going to be inspecting stuff.

So expect a lot of inspections and delays.

Capt'n Midnight

Seth Brundle wrote: »

How will a company exporting goods from the UK convince EU customs to use the new UK automated system?

And the new VAT changes on imports.

This means that the following types of businesses will have to register for UK VAT (if not already registered) and account for VAT to HMRC:

any business that operates an OMP that facilitates sales of goods to UK customers
any business that sells goods directly (without OMP involvement) to UK customers where the goods are (a) outside UK at the point of sale (b) imported to the UK in consignments not exceeding £135 in value

OMP = Online Marketplace

Nody

peter kern wrote: »

few questions here.
obviously switzerland is still a very rich country so how do they make logistics work? i could not think of a country with better infrastucture including traffic , so i guess this is an important part which the uk is 30 years behind.

I'll answer this from my view; as everything else things changes over time and different companies do things differently; hence don't take this as gospel for how things are done today for company Y. We're a manufacturing company in the food sector doing six digits of truck movements cross country in Europe (not all related to Switzerland/Norway mind you).

Every pallet we were shipping in/out from Switzerland would have printed paperwork from our system with the details and breakdown of content that had to go with that pallet (required at customs border). This was digitally shared with our custom agency who then filed the paperwork on our behalf and paid the custom fees in advance and gave the truck driver the reference to give along with the paperwork at the border. The customs agent would verify that the filed paperwork matched with the papers he was given on what was on the actual truck. If we got unlucky the custom agent would ask us to open the truck and they would look inside as well (and if it was a a more dubious border they would take "samples" from random boxes which was in practice them taking things home instead). Because of how our trucks were required to be sealed they would then get paperwork with them confirming from the custom agent that they had opened the truck or we'd be fining the trucking company (truck drivers were bribed to bring in immigrants to UK and we've had our share of stolen goods as well).

Now if things were running smoothly and there were no major queues, weekends or build ups etc. they could be in and out in 15 to 30 min. If they had managed to misplace a paper, or the sending site did not give it to them etc. they could be there for days to sort things out. In worst case scenarios the issue was not the truck but the driver for some reason and we'd need to send another truck to pick up the goods instead. Now; this is only the first layer of issues; because remember that custom agency we were using? Well they would invoice us standard fee + custom fee. But that had to be reconciled back and we had disparities between what we shipped and what they paid for which if found in a government audit (and the government love to send their auditors for this, easy money...) would be expensive. For example if the sugar content in the crumbles shipped had changed in the factory but not in our system all duties were wrong and had to be corrected.

Which goes with the second problem; your logistics. We had about 95% of our volume contracted with 80% to 20 or so vendors in Europe. We had clearly out lined processes on how to handle customs, which border, which agency etc. Our providers in turn were only allowed to outsource the trucks one level down. I.e. we contract company A, they can hire company B and they are suppose to instruct company B on what to do, how to do it etc. Company B are not allowed in turn to contract to C etc. or put it on the spot market for freight (this was an excellent way to ensure our goods never arrived as the carrier company did not think it was odd someone took them up to drive it for 200 EUR on what was contracted as a 2000 EUR run...). We even ended up terminating our second largest truck company over it (to say they were shocked would be an understatement) after we caught them red handed one time to many. But the point being because you're usually not dealing with the final driver directly (outsourced in one or more layers down) even your instructions on what they are suppose to do tends to get lost "along the way".

peter kern

Nody wrote: »

I'll answer this from my view; as everything else things changes over time and different companies do things differently; hence don't take this as gospel for how things are done today for company Y. We're a manufacturing company in the food sector doing six digits of truck movements cross country in Europe (not all related to Switzerland/Norway mind you).

Every pallet we were shipping in/out from Switzerland would have printed paperwork from our system with the details and breakdown of content that had to go with that pallet (required at customs border). This was digitally shared with our custom agency who then filed the paperwork on our behalf and paid the custom fees in advance and gave the truck driver the reference to give along with the paperwork at the border. The customs agent would verify that the filed paperwork matched with the papers he was given on what was on the actual truck. If we got unlucky the custom agent would ask us to open the truck and they would look inside as well (and if it was a a more dubious border they would take "samples" from random boxes which was in practice them taking things home instead). Because of how our trucks were required to be sealed they would then get paperwork with them confirming from the custom agent that they had opened the truck or we'd be fining the trucking company (truck drivers were bribed to bring in immigrants to UK and we've had our share of stolen goods as well).

Now if things were running smoothly and there were no major queues, weekends or build ups etc. they could be in and out in 15 to 30 min. If they had managed to misplace a paper, or the sending site did not give it to them etc. they could be there for days to sort things out. In worst case scenarios the issue was not the truck but the driver for some reason and we'd need to send another truck to pick up the goods instead. Now; this is only the first layer of issues; because remember that custom agency we were using? Well they would invoice us standard fee + custom fee. But that had to be reconciled back and we had disparities between what we shipped and what they paid for which if found in a government audit (and the government love to send their auditors for this, easy money...) would be expensive. For example if the sugar content in the crumbles shipped had changed in the factory but not in our system all duties were wrong and had to be corrected.

Which goes with the second problem; your logistics. We had about 95% of our volume contracted with 80% to a 20 or so vendors in Europe. We had clearly out lined processes on how to handle customs, which border, which agency etc. Our providers in turn were only allowed to outsource the trucks one level down. I.e. we contract company A, they can hire company B and they are suppose to instruct company B on what to do, how to do it etc. Company B are not allowed in turn to contract to C etc. or put it on the spot market for freight (this was an excellent way to ensure our goods never arrived as the carrier company did not think it was odd someone took them up to drive it for 200 EUR on what was contracted as a 2000 EUR run...). We even ended up terminating our second largest truck company over it (to say they were shocked would be an understatement) after we caught them red handed one time to many. But the point being because you're usually not dealing with the final driver directly (outsourced in one or more layers down) even your instructions on what they are suppose to do tends to get lost "along the way".

thanks for that detailed reply.

blackcard

Happy days for those in the UK as they can now look forward to English Fries, Bradford Sprouts, Londoners and English Gold. Sovereignty

Charles Babbage

salonfire wrote: »

As often quoted here, Ireland exports more to China and the US than the UK. Shipping and customs doesn't seem to be a problem then.

If the UK can get their shipping right, they have full access to the EU tariff and payments free plus other advantages - immigration, repatriation of benefits to people in other EU states, etc.

The character of long distance trade is different from just in time supply chains using lorries.

A Dub in Glasgo

The Sun certainly think the EU folded and Brexit as promised in 2016 is delivered

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1341869025991733248

CelticRambler

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Sun certainly think the EU folded and Brexit as promised in 2016 is delivered

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1341869025991733248

Most peculiar ... he makes no mention of the "enormous concessions" that a French government source told AFP the Brits made to get a deal at the last minute (as reported by Le Figaro)

I foresee fireworks in the near future ... probably moreso on the English side of the Channel than the Continental. :pac: