Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

moon2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Today is a victory for democracy. All the fear mongering from remainers and attempts to frighten the public and undermine the vote of the British people came to naught.

They will be absolutely fine on their own, I have zero doubt about that.

What exactly is the victory and which aspects of "project fear" have proven false? For the most part they've been pretty accurate. Perhaps that is why the UK has consistently refused to leave with no deal, despite an extremely convincing performance otherwise.

yagan

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Today is a victory for democracy. All the fear mongering from remainers and attempts to frighten the public and undermine the vote of the British people came to naught.

They will be absolutely fine on their own, I have zero doubt about that.

I agree, as long as they've got UNICEF

Lumen

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

There'd be more customs officials than police in the UK lol

I think that's unlikely. There are 150k police in the UK.

fash

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Today is a victory for democracy. All the fear mongering from remainers and attempts to frighten the public and undermine the vote of the British people came to naught.

They will be absolutely fine on their own, I have zero doubt about that.

We are seeing the biggest step towards the end of the UK and the subsequent return /return to close orbit of the EU by the various parts. Brexit is the process of joining the EU for really slow learners.

Mr.Wemmick

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Today is a victory for democracy. All the fear mongering from remainers and attempts to frighten the public and undermine the vote of the British people came to naught.

They will be absolutely fine on their own, I have zero doubt about that.

You're joking, surely? I live here and no one I know thinks this.

Knuckle draggers aside, even brexiteers back in '16 have realised the whole thing is an out and out lie. But yeah.. daily flap unicorns fantasy tales, keep 'em going.. while we see poverty and hardship continue on a scale we've never seen before and Johnson along with his cronies make a killing and rake in a fortune.

breezy1985

TP_CM wrote: »

They really should have originally set the deadline to the end of January 2021. I mean setting the deadline a few days after Christmas was a bit silly or naive. 100s of officials around Europe now have to give up their Christmas to frantically go through this deal. I know it was a legal thing probably but still.

Or they could have just done the deal at a reasonable time instead of this brinkmanship nonsense that they learned from watching too many Hollywood movies about Wall Street

Gerry T

TP_CM wrote:

They really should have originally set the deadline to the end of January 2021. I mean setting the deadline a few days after Christmas was a bit silly or naive. 100s of officials around Europe now have to give up their Christmas to frantically go through this deal. I know it was a legal thing probably but still.

Or those officials can take next week, or possibly the next two weeks off and look at the details after a well deserved break. Lets face it the EU Canada deal was provisionally applied over 3 yrs ago and its still provisional. IRL hasn't ratified it and from memory only 10 EU countries have.
What that means is the EU could still go back saying country x wants y before signing and the negoatiations go on and on. Realistically the first step of many is getting a base outline deal agreed and provisionally operational. Getting that deal finally ratified is a very much longer road, i expect some countries could go into gouge mode over fishing being restricted, but i could be wrong.
Say france says well we have 30% less access to UK fish so UK access to French ports will be reduced by the same amount. Now i know thats very silly and wouldn't happen but give countries a bit of time and they'll come up with their own version.

PokeHerKing

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Today is a victory for democracy. All the fear mongering from remainers and attempts to frighten the public and undermine the vote of the British people came to naught.

They will be absolutely fine on their own, I have zero doubt about that.

Its looking like some snow potential for the wknd Kermit, start a thread in the weather forum and redeem yourself for this $hite.

Choosehowevr.

Has Britain actually done any new Trade deals?

There was a lot of talk about deals with the US

lawred2

Whatever about all the tit for tats and riculous attempts at one-upmanship; it's in all of our interests that pragmatism has finally taken hold and we have a trade deal.

Still doesn't mean that this is good thing. But at least there's since degree of damage limitation.

pixelburp

For the casual Brexit follower, this deal will still need voted-in by the House of Commons, right? And if so, how are the tea leaves looking in terms of Johnson's support?

MrMusician18

lawred2 wrote: »

Whatever about all the tit for tats and riculous attempts at one-upmanship; it's in all of our interests that pragmatism has finally taken hold and we have a trade deal.

It's in all our interests.

Indeed. Irish people should be prepared for the inevitable rule-britannia, we won, rhetoric from the UK press. This was going to come whatever the outcome.

The devil is in the detail of course, but I would fully expect the UK to have made more meaningful concessions on the substantive issues.

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

Whatever about all the tit for tats and riculous attempts at one-upmanship; it's in all of our interests that pragmatism has finally taken hold and we have a trade deal.

It's in all our interests.

A deal of some kind was always going to happen. No deal would obliterate the Conservative party. For all their ties to dirty money, oligarchs and press barons they still need votes and there's now a capable Labour opposition.

I expect the UK side will have compromised hard with some concessions from the EU over fishing. In any case, it looks to be done and we can... I don't know.. Wait to see how HM government uses it's new powers when it never bothered using the ones it already had.

CelticRambler

pixelburp wrote: »

For the casual Brexit follower, this deal will still need voted-in by the House of Commons, right? And if so, how are the tea leaves looking in terms of Johnson's support?

The tea is still in the cup, waiting to be drunk.

Chances are, it'll get through but only with Labour support (passive or active, depending on how much of a sell-out the ERG think it is). A great victory over the EU, that sees Britain England united once again.

Christy42

pixelburp wrote: »

For the casual Brexit follower, this deal will still need voted-in by the House of Commons, right? And if so, how are the tea leaves looking in terms of Johnson's support?

Given many seemed quick to agree that driving is a good way to test your eyesight it seems like his support is solid whatever the actual agreement is.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

The tea is still in the cup, waiting to be drunk.

Chances are, it'll get through but only with Labour support (passive or active, depending on how much of a sell-out the ERG think it is). A great victory over the EU, that sees Britain England united once again.

I think it would be an appalling mistake for Labour to help it through. Their choice is an inferior state of affairs to full membership or economic catastrophe. There's no reason for them to help Johnson with this. I'm hoping that Starmer whips them to abstain.

Choosehowevr.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it would be an appalling mistake for Labour to help it through. Their choice is an inferior state of affairs to full membership or economic catastrophe. There's no reason for them to help Johnson with this. I'm hoping that Starmer whips them to abstain.

Not sure abstaining is appropriate for such a big decision

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Today is a victory for democracy. All the fear mongering from remainers and attempts to frighten the public and undermine the vote of the British people came to naught.

They will be absolutely fine on their own, I have zero doubt about that.

Sweet, you have seen the deal already. What is in it? I mean you couldn't possibly make a proclamation like this without having seen the deal. That would be, well just reactionary and a little silly.

CelticRambler wrote: »

How about "Boris's Chirstmas Turkey Deal?" :pac:

From all that's gone before, and all that's needed in the future, I reckon we're looking at the prospect of Johnson signing a "Switzerland light" deal, becoming a perpetual net contributor and rule-taker and committing to long-term alignment with just about everything that matters to the EU under threat of seeing the whole deal torn up; and having delivered a pseudo-BRINO without any of the benefits of a real BRINO, Johnson will be pushed/do a runner early in 2021.

I think this will be known as the Christmas Turkey deal in a few months. Once the scrutiny has started and people start understanding what is in the deal, then PM Sunak will have a tough time trying to sell the pile of dung he was in cabinet of to the people.

Farage will not go away if Johnson has given away too much in the deal and if anything could establish himself as a credible politician with a credible party here. I am sure he is happily waiting in the wings to see what Johnson had to give up. Those that want to remain or rejoin know what they want, but the problem with Brexit has always and will always be that there isn't one Brexit that will satisfy all Brexiters. So there is space for an opportunistic politician to fill the people with the same lies and dreams that Johnson did if things don't improve for people.

I can easily see some of the spineless Tory MP's ditching the party if they start seeing their support from the constituents fall due to the deal. If Farage starts rising in the polls he will try to entice MP's to ditch the Conservatives and try to disown the mess they have enabled.

ancapailldorcha

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

Not sure abstaining is appropriate for such a big decision

It's the Conservative party's mess so it's their problem. They need to own this and Labour helping them get it through partly absolves them of the responsibility.

I see where you're coming from of course but I think the Tories need to be seen for what they are.

Donald Trump

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Today is a victory for democracy. All the fear mongering from remainers and attempts to frighten the public and undermine the vote of the British people came to naught.

They will be absolutely fine on their own, I have zero doubt about that.

It will surely go down in history as the day the UK managed to win their fight for democracy and get their freedom from the foreign invaders. And to think that the concept of democracy wasn't even visible in practice anywhere in the world until today!



In years to come, they might even be able to resurrect their national language - which is actually English for those of you who have become accustomed to having Swedish and French forced upon you when you ventured across to that oppressed land on England. Unfortunately the centuries of oppression by foreign tyrants have left very few native speakers alive but there is hope that they can save it.



Amazing

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it would be an appalling mistake for Labour to help it through. Their choice is an inferior state of affairs to full membership or economic catastrophe. There's no reason for them to help Johnson with this. I'm hoping that Starmer whips them to abstain.

Abstention would still be a form of tacit support. If, as I suspect, this is a bare bones pseudo-BRINO-lite deal with (years and years and years and years and years of) further negotiations ahead to be fine tune the costs and implications for every different sector, then it could be argued that there's no real reason to try to scupper it.

As Rob has pointed out, Brexit is done; the UK has to live with the mess the Tories have created, and we (they) are into nose-spite-face territory now. There's no real sense that the Tory Party (nor any individual Tories) are going to pay any political price for their incompetence, so the chance of Labour picking up additional support over a botched trade negotiation is minimal. Their best option now would probably be to agree to a suitable foundation on which they can build a project for future, closer ties, and hope they get into power before the Tories have got too high on divergent sovereignty.

Choosehowevr.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's the Conservative party's mess so it's their problem. They need to own this and Labour helping them get it through partly absolves them of the responsibility.

I see where you're coming from of course but I think the Tories need to be seen for what they are.

I guess there's 2 ways of looking at it

I'd just have no respect for them if they won't vote yes/no

I read that Neil Kinnock called for them to abstain but Starmer would make Boris sell the deal to the house and vote accordingly , high risk but I think the right thing if you want to be taken seriously

CelticRambler

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

I read that Neil Kinnock called for them to abstain but Starmer would make Boris sell the deal to the house and vote accordingly , high risk but I think the right thing if you want to be taken seriously

Indeed, there could well be more political capital to be made if Johnson could be manoeuvred into admitting that concessions (significant in the eyes of the ERG/UKIP-BP) had to be made to get the deal over the line and that there was yet more work to be done; that, as someone on Sky this morning said, "Brexit will never go away."

Nody

Btw, first hints of the deal are out here. Fishing? 25% over 5.5 years vs. 25% over 6 years EU proposed (compared with 60% reduction over 3 years by UK). Quota free and tariff free trade but Services not included inc. no recognition of UK professional certifications unless EU decides they want to and for how long and no recognition of EU certification by UK companies or authorities (i.e. all certifications needs to be done in EU as UK certification is not recognized as good enough).

yagan

The way I see is the ERG has to be positioned into being the impediment to glorious Brexit just as the DUP were. Boris called his election to bypass the DUP and won a stomping majority, and as none in the ERG have any personalities as buoyant as Johnson it will be hard to stop him cornering them if they try to kick up now.

I won't be surprised if this kicks on for weeks, however if there's an agreement in principle that's enough for the EU to tack on a transitional "one foot out the door" period to the end of the transition period.

However this extra period won't be comfortable as the screws will be turned on checking compliance on UK imports etc.. and certainly no extension on free movement etc..

Choosehowevr.

Nody wrote: »

Btw, first hints of the deal are out here. Fishing? 25% over 5.5 years vs. 25% over 6 years EU proposed (compared with 60% reduction over 3 years by UK). Quota free and tariff free trade but Services not included inc. no recognition of UK professional certifications unless EU decides they want to and for how long.

The last bit is the EU grabbing them by the proverbials

ElJeffe

This looks like a huge win for the UK. If as i expect they get big trade deals now with other trading blocs it will encourage other countries to follow suit like Italy. Interesting few years ahead.

Choosehowevr.

ElJeffe wrote: »

This looks like a huge win for the UK. If as i expect they get big trade deals now with other trading blocs it will encourage other countries to follow suit like Italy. Interesting few years ahead.

You'd need to expand on that

Where are the trading deals going to come from

ElJeffe

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it would be an appalling mistake for Labour to help it through. Their choice is an inferior state of affairs to full membership or economic catastrophe. There's no reason for them to help Johnson with this. I'm hoping that Starmer whips them to abstain.

No chance. The Conservatives have played Labour like a fiddle the last few years, that's not changing now. Starmer will row in behind or else he'll be made look like the guy who destroyed the deal.

lawred2

ElJeffe wrote: »

This looks like a huge win for the UK. If as i expect they get big trade deals now with other trading blocs it will encourage other countries to follow suit like Italy. Interesting few years ahead.

Doesn't it all depend on what the nature of these trade deals would be?

Why would a small player be seen as anything other than a rule taker in such a situation?

With who would these trade deals be with and what is it that Britain has to sell?