Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

You are going to see a lot of crap posted on this and other sites in the next few days. Johnson will claim victory and his supporters will not think twice about questioning this. We will not know until the full text has been read and understood by people who know more knowledgeable than those that post on here. Trying to claim victory now on this site should show who should be ignored in future.

Donald Trump

ElJeffe wrote: »

This looks like a huge win for the UK. If as i expect they get big trade deals now with other trading blocs it will encourage other countries to follow suit like Italy. Interesting few years ahead.

There is an inherent contradiction in your logic.
You are saying that it is a big win for the UK because they managed to get a trade deal with a huge block ... which will break up due to the deal (by your logic!)


An analogy might be a business thinking it is great because they managed to get a 10 year deal with a supplier to secure their raw materials ... and what is even better is that the deal is so great that the supplier will go bust within 6 months :pac:




(Note, I do not think that others will follow the UK. The only tiny outside chance would be a return to autocracy in some of the Eastern European states and the leader just pulling them out to move his personal allegiance Eastwards)

yagan

ElJeffe wrote: »

No chance. The Conservatives have played Labour like a fiddle the last few years, that's not changing now. Starmer will row in behind or else he'll be made look like the guy who destroyed the deal.

It's not Labours deal, and Starmer has stated that the success of Brexit entirely depends on those leading it.

Blaming those not in power for the failures of those who are is regurgitating Tory propaganda.

Nody

ElJeffe wrote: »

This looks like a huge win for the UK. If as i expect they get big trade deals now with other trading blocs it will encourage other countries to follow suit like Italy. Interesting few years ahead.

Funny how business appears to disagree with you.

The Farmers’ Union of Wales has welcomed news of the trade deal. But the FUW president, Glyn Roberts, like the NFU president, Minette Batters, (see 8.25am), has said that, even without tariffs, trade costs will still go up. He explained:

The consequences of a no deal for farming and other industries would be catastrophic, so it was always hoped that common sense would prevail.

However, our access to the EU market, which is the destination for three-quarters of Welsh food and drink exports, will still face significant barriers after 31 December, with non-tariff barrier costs expected to rise by 4% to 8%.

And this is purely a FTA on products; UK is net importer of products and net exporter of services which is specifically excluded from the deal. Hence the winner of this deal is actually EU who gets more tariff free of their export to UK than what UK gets export back because their major export (services) are fully excluded...

Akabusi

ElJeffe wrote: »

This looks like a huge win for the UK. If as i expect they get big trade deals now with other trading blocs it will encourage other countries to follow suit like Italy. Interesting few years ahead.

What are you basing your expectations on? Can you share the details of this supposed huge win for the UK?

timetogo1

Akabusi wrote: »

What are you basing your expectations on? Can you share the details of this supposed huge win for the UK?

This thread is going to be interesting when we actually know what the deal entails. I recommend people bookmark some posts so we can come back to them in a few days. I'm guessing the posters will have gotten forgotten about them.

astrofool

Nody wrote: »

Btw, first hints of the deal are out here. Fishing? 25% over 5.5 years vs. 25% over 6 years EU proposed (compared with 60% reduction over 3 years by UK). Quota free and tariff free trade but Services not included inc. no recognition of UK professional certifications unless EU decides they want to and for how long and no recognition of EU certification by UK companies or authorities (i.e. all certifications needs to be done in EU as UK certification is not recognized as good enough).

That's an awful deal for the UK, will be interesting to see how hard the papers try to spin this into some sort of victory.

Choosehowevr.

timetogo1 wrote: »

This thread is going to be interesting when we actually know what the deal entails. I recommend people bookmark some posts so we can come back to them in a few days. I'm guessing the posters will have gotten forgotten about them.

How much will we know in a few days

We'll have some facts but there's a lot of variables into the future

Choosehowevr.

Big test for labour and Starmer here

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Today is a victory for democracy. All the fear mongering from remainers and attempts to frighten the public and undermine the vote of the British people came to naught.

They will be absolutely fine on their own, I have zero doubt about that.

Ah yes, the Great UK has left the EU and gotten the greatest deal ever....

Except they lost all control of policy,
get no say in any future endeavours,
Have lost access to various other European projects,
had their currency cleaved of 25~30% of it's pre Brexit value,
Currency could yet lose futher value as post brexit events drag it down further,
have destroyed all credibility as a trustworthy partner,
multiple departments and area's about to have their budgets cleaved to a fraction of their pre brexit values,
have lost all service rights in the EU,
have lost freedom of movement,
are under threat of the Scot's noping the hell out,
may even have to give up Northern Ireland in the next few years,
Have absolutely nothing noteworthy advantageous to trade with other major blocks,
Any trade agreements are either rollovers of existing ones or of inferior quality (Japanese Laugher here*),
Is currently crippled with the rona,
Is potentially exporting new variants of rona to its neighbours,
And lastly the only "advantage" they've gotten is 25% more fish in a sector worth barely a fraction of the economy.

And yet for all this delusional "victory" they will harp on about what do you get of actual substantial worth? Fraud Unicorns!

Let me finish by saying no matter what any Brexiteer believes they are delusional and more than anything else completely and utterly wrong. Denying reality will only make one feel a little good but ultimately as we have all seen reality and facts will grind down any delusions of grandeur and you'll be left with the bare truth: Britain is weaker, poorer, has burned all credibility and gotten nothing but a few extra fish. Any trade deals in the future with any of the major blocks like China, The US or Europe will always be to their advantage for one simple and irrefutable truth: Their numbers are BIGGER than yours.

But sure enjoy your fraud unicorns and fish!

Infini

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

Big test for labour and Starmer here

Stamer just has to stay out of it along with the rest of labour. Dont oppose or Block it. Let the conservative party own the whole thing, they created it, they can own the consequences of destroying their nation.

timetogo1

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

How much will we know in a few days

We'll have some facts but there's a lot of variables into the future

Days / weeks / whatever.
After minutes some geniuses here were declaring it a victory for democracy

And we have no detail yet.

Choosehowevr.

Infini wrote: »

Stamer just has to stay out of it along with the rest of labour. Dont oppose or Block it. Let the conservative party own the whole thing, they created it, they can own the consequences of destroying their nation.

Makes them look silly at a time like this imo

Maybe this is the best thing for the labour party strategically

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

You are going to see a lot of crap posted on this and other sites in the next few days. Johnson will claim victory and his supporters will not think twice about questioning this. We will not know until the full text has been read and understood by people who know more knowledgeable than those that post on here. Trying to claim victory now on this site should show who should be ignored in future.

This agreement is 2,000 pages long. The ERG have set up a "Star Chamber" led by Bill Cash to scrutinise the deal once it's declared. Their opinion will be fun to read.

Infini

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

Makes them look silly at a time like this imo

Maybe this is the best thing for the labour party strategically

That's the thing there's no advantage to opposing it as it would bring on disaster if the European Troll Group decides to vote against and then they'd be responsible for it but there's no advantage to supporting it either, they pushed a policy that remove the UK from the continents biggest trade and political group for absolutely nothing of gain, have alienated Scotland, dug up the Irish Question AGAIN that should have been buried for at least another few decades amongst others. Conservatives should be the ones to own the trade deal of inferior status that they negotiated with the policies and utterly own both Brexit and the inevitable consequences that will come of it in the future.

wpd

so it looks like some sort of deal is in place

will the UK still have to contribute financially to EU??

Will EU citizens still be able to live and work in work without visas?

Will UK citizens be able to live and work in EU countries??


thanks

Sierra Oscar

So it looks like the UK will have to have extensive negotiations each and every time they wish to deviate on standards in the future. Trapped so they are!

Choosehowevr.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This agreement is 2,000 pages long.

The EU are no fools

They'll have the UK over a barrel with certifications and compliance

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This agreement is 2,000 pages long. The ERG have set up a "Star Chamber" led by Bill Cash to scrutinise the deal once it's declared. Their opinion will be fun to read.

Wonder how it compares with 13 tightly-moderated Brexit threads.

Seriously though, I think they're just going to make the deal the new incarnation of the EU scapegoat if they think that public ire can be stoked about it.

breezy1985

timetogo1 wrote: »

This thread is going to be interesting when we actually know what the deal entails. I recommend people bookmark some posts so we can come back to them in a few days. I'm guessing the posters will have gotten forgotten about them.

I feel we are entering the" check the bookies lads" phase of this thread.

Professor Moriarty

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

The EU are no fools

They'll have the UK over a barrel with certifications and compliance

Yes, it was never about tariffs. EU regulations will be Britain's major stumbling block.

Choosehowevr.

What are the chances of anyone accurately costing the deal?

None , because there's too many unknowns

Strazdas

wpd wrote: »

so it looks like some sort of deal is in place

will the UK still have to contribute financially to EU??

Will EU citizens still be able to live and work in work without visas?

Will UK citizens be able to live and work in EU countries??


thanks

No to everything basically. The UK will be completely outside the EU, Single Market and Customs Union.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Wonder how it compares with 13 tightly-moderated Brexit threads.

Seriously though, I think they're just going to make the deal the new incarnation of the EU scapegoat if they think that public ire can be stoked about it.

There is far more sense, based on reality, talked in these threads than is talked any ERG WhatsApp group or meetings.

They could do that but if the ERG don't like what they see, and there's a good chance of that, they might turn on Johnson. It's a distant hope but, in the context of pre-existing backbench outrage over the Covid-19 tiers, there is a sliver of a chance that the deal might cause the Tories to implode.

amacca

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There is far more sense, based on reality, talked in these threads than is talked any ERG WhatsApp group or meetings.

They could do that but if the ERG don't like what they see, and there's a good chance of that, they might turn on Johnson. It's a distant hope but, in the context of pre-existing backbench outrage over the Covid-19 tiers, there is a sliver of a chance that the deal might cause the Tories to implode.

Even the ERG must have realised a long long time ago they were never going to like what they would see......do they want a no deal and a complete severing of ties (because a group of them stand to profit personally from it) or are they true believers in a fairytale do you think?

It must be fairly rare to see one party to a negotiation start of in a fairly good position to at least not lose too much and still have the option of going back to the status quo and at each step manoeuvre themselves into an increasingly stickier wicket, it seems barely believable (to me personally at least) this is the juncture the UK are at.

ziggyman17

Akabusi wrote: »

What are you basing your expectations on? Can you share the details of this supposed huge win for the UK?

He read it on the Mail online site.......... So it must be a great deal for the UK..

Professor Moriarty

amacca wrote: »

Even the ERG must have realised a long long time ago they were never going to like what they would see......do they want a no deal and a complete severing of ties (because a group of them stand to profit personally from it) or are they true believers in a fairytale do you think?

It must be fairly rare to see one party to a negotiation start of in a fairly good position to at least not lose too much and still have the option of going back to the status quo and at each step manoeuvre themselves into an increasingly stickier wicket, it seems barely believable (to me personally at least) this is the juncture the UK are at.

Personally, I think they live in Unicorn Land and I see their nationalistic hubris as the equivalent of snorting coke three times a day - such is the impulsivity of their decision making.

The UK have certainly gained more sovereignty, but the EU have them by the short and curlies now and will bully them any time it suits.

Professor Moriarty

ziggyman17 wrote: »

He read it on the Mail online site.......... So it must be a great deal for the UK..

On that, current main headline in The Express:

No10 claims Brexit fishing VICTORY in EU deal - ‘We can eat EVERY damn fish in our waters'

The Mail:

NO. 10: WE WON BREXIT TALKS

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Personally, I think they live in Unicorn Land and I see their nationalistic hubris as the equivalent of snorting coke three times a day - such is the impulsivity of their decision making.

The UK have certainly gained more sovereignty, but the EU have them by the short and curlies now and will bully them any time it suits.

This might come across as a bit nitpicky but the UK haven't gained sovereignty, they have regained it after pooling it with 27 EU countries. It wasn't lost at all.

The cocaine metaphor might not be too far off the mark though.

breezy1985

amacca wrote: »

Even the ERG must have realised a long long time ago they were never going to like what they would see......do they want a no deal and a complete severing of ties (because a group of them stand to profit personally from it) or are they true believers in a fairytale do you think?

It must be fairly rare to see one party to a negotiation start of in a fairly good position to at least not lose too much and still have the option of going back to the status quo and at each step manoeuvre themselves into an increasingly stickier wicket, it seems barely believable (to me personally at least) this is the juncture the UK are at.

Some in the ERG and also whatever Nigel Farages National Front Party is calling itself these days will be hoping for a bad deal as it keeps them relevant and gives them a scapegoat to whine on about for another few years