Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This might come across as a bit nitpicky but the UK haven't gained sovereignty, they have regained it after pooling it with 27 EU countries. It wasn't lost at all.

The cocaine metaphor might not be too far off the mark though.

It is rather nitpicky! They have far fewer EU rules to which they must adhere and can negotiate their own FTAs. That's a form of sovereignty. Of course they've lost so many advantages in the process but that doesn't seem to matter.

fash

ElJeffe wrote: »

This looks like a huge win for the UK. If as i expect they get big trade deals now with other trading blocs it will encourage other countries to follow suit like Italy. Interesting few years ahead.

Looks like JP Morgan disagree - but what would they know?
.

MrMusician18

Infini wrote: »

Ah yes, the Great UK has left the EU and gotten the greatest deal ever....

Except they lost all control of policy,
get no say in any future endeavours,
Have lost access to various other European projects,
had their currency cleaved of 25~30% of it's pre Brexit value,
Currency could yet lose futher value as post brexit events drag it down further,
have destroyed all credibility as a trustworthy partner,
multiple departments and area's about to have their budgets cleaved to a fraction of their pre brexit values,
have lost all service rights in the EU,
have lost freedom of movement,
are under threat of the Scot's noping the hell out,
may even have to give up Northern Ireland in the next few years,
Have absolutely nothing noteworthy advantageous to trade with other major blocks,
Any trade agreements are either rollovers of existing ones or of inferior quality (Japanese Laugher here*),
Is currently crippled with the rona,
Is potentially exporting new variants of rona to its neighbours,
And lastly the only "advantage" they've gotten is 25% more fish in a sector worth barely a fraction of the economy.

And yet for all this delusional "victory" they will harp on about what do you get of actual substantial worth? Fraud Unicorns!

Let me finish by saying no matter what any Brexiteer believes they are delusional and more than anything else completely and utterly wrong. Denying reality will only make one feel a little good but ultimately as we have all seen reality and facts will grind down any delusions of grandeur and you'll be left with the bare truth: Britain is weaker, poorer, has burned all credibility and gotten nothing but a few extra fish. Any trade deals in the future with any of the major blocks like China, The US or Europe will always be to their advantage for one simple and irrefutable truth: Their numbers are BIGGER than yours.

But sure enjoy your fraud unicorns and fish!

In any negotiation there have to be wins on both sides otherwise the negotiators will not be able to sell the compromise to their respective bases. It's something that the opposite negotiator needs to understand. In this deal, there will be specific "wins" for the UK and EU.

Another important thing to recognize is that we Irish people will get a very good view of what the UK wins both real and perceived are since we consume a lot of their media. This can only be countered by our own small and relatively weak media. It can therefore be easy to get swept up in a feeling that the EU was steamrolled in this negotiation as that's the way the BBC, Telegraph, Sun et al will present it. A French or German person with little access or interest in the UK media would have a different outlook as european media will present the treaty in a completely different light.

From what we can see, with the UK outside the single market and customs union for goods and with no agreement for services is that things will change on 1st January. The extent of the changes have yet to be revealed but there will be new obstacles to trade. Obstacles, whatever their size will reduce trade.

The real unfortunate part is that these losses will mostly be invisible as they will be through attrition or opportunities that never materialized.

Professor Moriarty

fash wrote: »

Looks like JP Morgan disagree - but what would they know?
.

That's spot on. The EU didn't blink and took advantage of Johnson's arrogance and stupidity.

KildareP

It's amazing seeing all of the posters on here (and elsewhere) who are celebrating this as an incredible victory for the UK when they haven't even seen what the deal contains.

However it's not at all surprising. After all, the same group were doing the exact same celebrating of the WA which was heralded as a huge victory for the UK - that is, until they actually got around to reading what they had signed up to.

I expect nothing more than a rinse and repeat of the post-WA antics of 2020 into 2021.

At least we have some hope Covid will be eradicated soon to look forward to...

Donald Trump

fash wrote: »

Looks like JP Morgan disagree - but what would they know?
.

Don't mind about that. Won't the fishermen be allowed to catch a few more fish.....of species they don't eat themselves mind ... but sure they'll still be able to catch them.


And by fishermen we mean the Dutch and Spanish big boys who bought up all the UK quota over the years

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In any negotiation there have to be wins on both sides otherwise the negotiators will not be able to sell the compromise to their respective bases. It's something that the opposite negotiator needs to understand. In this deal, there will be specific "wins" for the UK and EU.

Another important thing to recognize is that we Irish people will get a very good view of what the UK wins both real and perceived are since we consume a lot of their media. This can only be countered by our own small and relatively weak media. It can therefore be easy to get swept up in a feeling that the EU was steamrolled in this negotiation as that's the way the BBC, Telegraph, Sun et al will present it. A French or German person with little access or interest in the UK media would have a different outlook as european media will present the treaty in a completely different light.

From what we can see, with the UK outside the single market and customs union for goods and with no agreement for services is that things will change on 1st January. The extent of the changes have yet to be revealed but there will be new obstacles to trade. Obstacles, whatever their size will reduce trade.

The real unfortunate part is that these losses will mostly be invisible as they will be through attrition or opportunities that never materialized.

The real hammer blow will be the slump in inward investment.

MrMusician18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The real hammer blow will be the slump in inward investment.

That will be an invisible loss though and a slow burn which unfortunately for workers is politically acceptable as its hard to notice or attribute a direct cause.

If the growth rate is depressed by say 1% by this deal vs where it would be if 2016 never happened, no one will notice aside from a few economists. You can't miss what you never had.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is rather nitpicky! They have far fewer EU rules to which they must adhere and can negotiate their own FTAs. That's a form of sovereignty. Of course they've lost so many advantages in the process but that doesn't seem to matter.

I know but I think the distinction matters.

What we're going to see now is the British press and Brexiters contorting themselves to spin this as some sort of win despite willingly and unnecessarily surrendering the privileged advantages enjoyed by British service exporters and tech leaders over their European competitors just so we can keep the price of food in line.

I've never really accepted just how easily the British public were able to vote for Brexit and then be content with the talk of ensuring that food imports still reach supermarket shelves and England's garden being turned into a cesspit.

I don't know what the deal is yet. If we knew in advance what it was going to be, Remain would easily have cinched a supermajority IMO. The UK has managed to keep a bit of the status quo while ditching its serious economic advantages in the single market and creating a labour shortage in various sectors like agriculture and care.

Christy42

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

So it looks like the UK will have to have extensive negotiations each and every time they wish to deviate on standards in the future. Trapped so they are!

If that is true then it is simply a permanent transition agreement. In the EU in all but name. If true obviously.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I know but I think the distinction matters.

What we're going to see now is the British press and Brexiters contorting themselves to spin this as some sort of win despite willingly and unnecessarily surrendering the privileged advantages enjoyed by British service exporters and tech leaders over their European competitors just so we can keep the price of food in line.

I've never really accepted just how easily the British public were able to vote for Brexit and then be content with the talk of ensuring that food imports still reach supermarket shelves and England's garden being turned into a cesspit.

I don't know what the deal is yet. If we knew in advance what it was going to be, Remain would easily have cinched a supermajority IMO. The UK has managed to keep a bit of the status quo while ditching its serious economic advantages in the single market and creating a labour shortage in various sectors like agriculture and care.

Reading between the lines, it seems as if Johnson has caved in all areas - which is why the 'win' on fish is so vital for optics. There is zero chance that Brexit would have passed if this was what was on offer. The British public have been gaslighted by Johnson for his own selfish political reasons to the point that about 40% of the population would now be happy with WTO only. It's a disgraceful abuse of power and influence. But it's only disgraceful if you feel shame and that has never bothered Johnson.

druss

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know what the deal is yet. If we knew in advance what it was going to be, Remain would easily have cinched a supermajority IMO. The UK has managed to keep a bit of the status quo while ditching its serious economic advantages in the single market and creating a labour shortage in various sectors like agriculture and care.

And yet the value of that status quo deal will still mean that they will be unable to strike the promised amazing deals with US or China. Any such deals, like their current deal with Japan, would have to basically not tread on EU toes.

Choosehowevr.

Christy42 wrote: »

If that is true then it is simply a permanent transition agreement. In the EU in all but name. If true obviously.

I think that's the idea actually

fash

wpd wrote: »

so it looks like some sort of deal is in place

will the UK still have to contribute financially to EU??

kind of - they will be contributing where they partake in certain programmes.

wpd wrote: »

Will EU citizens still be able to live and work in work without visas?

No - unless Irish.

wpd wrote: »

Will UK citizens be able to live and work in EU countries??
thanks

No unless dual citizens with an EU parent.

Antwerpian

Strazdas wrote: »

No to everything basically. The UK will be completely outside the EU, Single Market and Customs Union.

Unless that EU citizen has one of those beautiful Irish passports, in which case you can work in the UK or the EU, with no issues

An Ciarraioch

EU press conference in 5 minutes:

https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1342118315670564866

PokeHerKing

Deal done. Pressers at 3pm. I expect ERG et al to be screaming treason by 9pm tonight.

Choosehowevr.

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Deal done. Pressers at 3pm. I expect ERG et al to be screaming treason by 9pm tonight.

Why

Antwerpian

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

Why

Because they're arseholes

Nate--IRL--

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

Why

It is their Raison d'être

Nate

BlitzKrieg

Downing Street are selling it hard as everything they promised in 2016.

How soon until that gets backpeddled?

Itssoeasy

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Downing Street are selling it hard as everything they promised in 2016.

How soon until that gets backpeddled?

Probably as long as people actually start reading the thing.

axer

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Downing Street are selling it hard as everything they promised in 2016.

How soon until that gets backpeddled?

Downing Street wrote:

"Everything that the British public was promised during the 2016 referendum and in the general election last year is delivered by this deal."

"We have taken back control of our money, borders, laws, trade and our fishing waters

"The deal is fantastic news for families and businesses in every part of the UK.

"We have signed the first free trade agreement based on zero tariffs and zero quotas that has ever been achieved with the EU.

"The deal is the biggest bilateral trade deal signed by either side, covering trade worth £668bn in 2019.

"The deal also guarantees that we are no longer in the lunar pull of the EU, we are not bound by EU rules, there is no role for the European Court of Justice and all of our key red lines about returning sovereignty have been achieved.

"It means that we will have full political and economic independence on 1st January 2021."

"A points-based immigration system will put us in full control of who enters the UK and free movement will end.

"We have delivered this great deal for the entire United Kingdom in record time, and under extremely challenging conditions, which protects the integrity of our internal market and Northern Ireland’s place within it.

"We have got Brexit done and we can now take full advantage of the fantastic opportunities available to us as an independent trading nation, striking trade deals with other partners around the world."

Everything they promised has been achieved. Good one.

beggars_bush

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Downing Street are selling it hard as everything they promised in 2016.

How soon until that gets backpeddled?

"Its a fantastic deal" - downing street

Choosehowevr.

Do the government actually believe the deal is good?

Or is it just another ruse

Leroy42

beggars_bush wrote: »

"Its a fantastic deal" - downing street

As others have pointed out there will be massive spin, on both sides but mainly UK, of this deal.

The only way to really tell is to see how things stand in a few weeks. Just like the WA, those on twitter etc have not actually seen the deal so any comments are guessing.

You won't get the truth from either the UK or EU press conferences

Dave0301

Reading that press release from No 10 I can't wait to see what the meat on the bones of this trade deal is.

Sounds like a fantastic deal altogether...

Leroy42

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

Do the government actually believe the deal is good?

Or is it just another ruse

Doesn't matter. It only matters if they believe they can convince others that it is a good deal.

BlitzKrieg

EU is still in fishing fully for next 5 and half years and we dont know the terms after, so can kicked there.

Level playing field is in effect.

So what did the UK get out of this?

Beechwoodspark

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Deal done. Pressers at 3pm. I expect ERG et al to be screaming treason by 9pm tonight.

Boris has a big majority so they are in the sidelines