Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Antwerpian

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

There will be a lot of small time smuggling going on to avoid paying vat. No one is going to check all trucks and vehicles going in and out of ireland/uk. The deal allows free movement without delay of those vehicles.

I have a second cousin in Armagh , with a lorry, who's hoping thats true.
Mind you he's had more than me to drink today.

fash

gifted wrote: »

So fast forward 5 years and it turns out that the UK is doing well....good economy..low unemployment..etc etc...what are the chances of other countries like Holland..Spain...France looking at the UK and saying " Let's leave as well"......

Low or non existent - why would they? You no longer have freedom of movement around Europe to retire to Spain or the South of France, no more free roaming on your mobile phone, can't move out of your country without hitting a hard border, can't study, can't use Amazon.de, no pet passports, can't return refugees, don't have information on criminals etc - and your economy is down the best part of 10%?
Why on earth would they want that?
They haven't been subjected to 40 years of jingoistic lies about bendy bananas being the fault of the"unelected bureaucrats" of Brussels appointed by 27 member states (as opposed to the fine upstanding unelected kleptocrats running the UK) and other vague rules they can't specify but which must definitely exist - so why would they?

Donald Trump

landofthetree wrote: »

Have you been to Europe lately? Middle-aged men working as waiters on minimum wage. FFS.

The EU didn't stop zero hour contracts nor will it. How else will immigrants deliver takeaways on bicycles to Europeans for a pittance?

I think the point went over your head dude. You're moaning about the fact that X amount of Italians under 30 don't have full time jobs. You probably don't even know the corresponding figure for the UK. And even if you did, you that employment instability in the UK would be a consequence of UK race to the bottom of the 80's.....the people who supported those decisions which removed employment stability for most people, appear to have a strong overlap with the Brexiteers. So it is strange that one would see it as a negative in another country if you supported them in the UK!





(Ignoring of course the inherent contradiction that the single market was the one positive of those years and attitude ... and that is the thing the Brexiteers want to run away from!)

Nody

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

There will be a lot of small time smuggling going on to avoid paying vat. No one is going to check all trucks and vehicles going in and out of ireland/uk. The deal allows free movement without delay of those vehicles.

What ever gave you that idea? EU has been very clear that controls will still be in place to verify the content; it's tariff free, not customs and control free deal that's been struck and no that does not equate freedom of movement of goods. All that means is UK companies don't have to pay tariffs; they will still need to supply all the paperwork at the border in regards to customs, content etc. as any third party country do. I'll steal this one from a previous poster's linked twitter. That means every single car coming in from the UK will need to drive through and declare (or chance it and don't and risk being stopped by customs agents); every truck will need to declare all goods as well before they roll out from the harbor etc.

kowloon

landofthetree wrote: »

Have you been to Europe lately? Middle-aged men working as waiters on minimum wage. FFS.

The EU didn't stop zero hour contracts nor will it. How else will immigrants deliver takeaways on bicycles to Europeans for a pittance?

Yes, I have been to Europe, I love getting food from the European takeaways. I'm in the process of learning European so I can converse with these wonderful people and learn about European culture.

CelticRambler

landofthetree wrote: »

Without doubt London and the UK has become the dumping ground for cheap EU labour as southern Europe continues to fail under the Euro.

Are these the same cheap EU labour that started not coming to the UK a few years ago because they could get better-paid work in Eastern Europe, and be closer to home?

Out of curiosity, what's the average take-home wage of non-EU migrants in the UK? You know, the ones that come from countries that don't use the Euro?

johnnyskeleton

gifted wrote: »

I'm wondering down the line in 5 years or so that if ..if...the UK are doing really well then a lot of other countries will start questioning the point of staying in the EU?

Do you also wonder whether if... if... the EU are doing really well in 5 years time that the UK will start to question why they left?

lalababa

?? Will goods coming from the UK (probably 80%+ of all imports come via UK ) be dearer?
Will goods (agri + drugs) we sell to UK be dearer for them??
Will the UK have a recession?
Will we?
Looking at the headlines the UK seem to have got a great deal. I would've liked to see them penalised a bit more re tariffs, even if a bit bad for us....

CelticRambler

murphaph wrote: »

So we'll have no tariffs but we'll still have full customs controls on parcels for vat, right?

No just for VAT - every package being sent from the UK to the EU will now have to have a complete customs declaration affixed to the outside and ready for inspection. It doesn't matter whether it's VAT exempt, or VAT paid, or VAT-to-be-paid, anyone sending parcels from the UK - anyone, sending anything, not just registered businesses sending stock - now has to wrap them in that little bit of extra red tape that we Europeans don't need to worry about.

fash

Antwerpian wrote: »

The Brexiteers
FOM --- didnt want it
Services --- The city isnt as bothered as you think
Security Databases -- The UK security services believe they can go solo or just get back door access they also believe the EuroSecurity is untrustworthy
Return Refugees -- Look at the ERG , they won't be saving drowning refugees

These people see what ordinary decent human beings see as natural as anathema.

Sorry to be so negative.
As a Briton who's been enjoying the benefits of the EEC/EU for most if my life, living and working throughout Europe fir the past 21 years, I fail to see how else I can be

Sincere commiserations - however I suspect the UK population will begin to realise what they lost over the next year or two.

fash

landofthetree wrote: »

30% of Italians aged 18-30 have never held a full time job ffs.

The EU project is all about protectionism.

Considering the EU has the most trade agreements of any entity in history, they are clearly also the most incompetent protectionists in history in that case.

Nody

lalababa wrote: »

?? Will goods coming from the UK (probably 80%+ of all imports come via UK ) be dearer?

Define from UK? Going through the landbridge in a sealed truck? No major change expected. Goods imported from a company in the UK? Yes; they will be more expensive depending on the product and company; 5 to 10% is expected customs handling fee but I'd not be surprised if other costs will increase as well in terms of transport etc.

Will goods (agri + drugs) we sell to UK be dearer for them??

Export fees will kick in; once again how much and how complicated will be depending on what UK manages to implement. However; this cost applies to all other countries as well so the cost increase is there but it's bringing it up to the same baseline as every other country in the world.

Will the UK have a recession?

The world will sooner or later; Brexit will only help it along but I doubt that it alone will be the trigger at this time.

Will we?

Sooner or later yes, we're overdue for one in general.

Looking at the headlines the UK seem to have got a great deal. I would've liked to see them penalised a bit more re tariffs, even if a bit bad for us....

UK got very little and gave in on everything that mattered; tariffs is the least punishing part of a FTA. Yes; UK will claim they got a great deal; in reality they got the short end of the stick but Boris needs a "Win" to get it through parliament. EU exports a lot to UK in terms of products, UK in turn sells a lot of services back to EU. The FTA will help products and do nothing for services; ergo EU gets the benefits of the deal and UK gets, well, not a whole lot for what they actually sell.

fash

landofthetree wrote: »

Without doubt London and the UK has become the dumping ground for cheap EU labour as southern Europe continues to fail under the Euro.

Whereas the regions in the UK have prospered mightily under UK (mis)rule? Tell me: what is the GNP per capita in Northern Ireland compared to Ireland?

fash

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-fishing-industry-will-be-disappointed-by-brexit-deal-taoiseach-says-1.4445321?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Irish fishermen continue to be screwed by the EU.

Aside from the fact that with EU support Ireland withstood British threats at starvation if it didn't now down to the reinstallation of the British border in Ireland, I'm sureyou'd agree that you'd be the first screaming if the EU failed to come to an agreement based on demanding in perpetuity rights for a few Irish fishing companies.

joeysoap

I’d guess Norway and Switzerland not over impressed they’ll be wondering what they pay/paid for. Nevertheless a better deal for Ireland than no deal.

Choosehowevr.

joeysoap wrote: »

I’d guess Norway and Switzerland not over impressed they’ll be wondering what they pay/paid for. Nevertheless a better deal for Ireland than no deal.

Equilibrium

The most important thing

Str8outtaWuhan

What are the customs arrangements now between north and south of the island. will southerners be stopped with car filled with "shopping"? i.e booze and electrical goods?

So is it fair to say the Eurosceptics were right? They have agreed tarrif free trade while still being able to control their immigration. So seems you can actually have the benefits of the EU while being an outside sovereign nation.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

So is it fair to say the Eurosceptics were right? They have agreed tarrif free trade while still being able to control their immigration. So seems you can actually have the benefits of the EU while being an outside sovereign nation.

The tariffs are a red herring. They are going to have queues and chaos at their borders lasting years ; nothing can pass through their borders without checks and tons of documentation.

Charles Babbage

Deleted User wrote: »

So is it fair to say the Eurosceptics were right? They have agreed tarrif free trade while still being able to control their immigration. So seems you can actually have the benefits of the EU while being an outside sovereign nation.

Tariff free trade is not the benefit of bring in the EU which has a whole deeper level of integration.

joeysoap

Booze? As a Louth resident , bar wine , I wouldn’t bother,

Electrical goods. Different story. Hopefully still worth it. I was in Watters (culloville) yesterday, busy as usual. Lots of Mexicans (southerners) as the Newry people Call us.

Charles Babbage

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Tariff free trade is not the benefit of bring in the EU which has a whole deeper level of integration.

But the point being they don't want that deep level of integration and want to be a sovereign nation making their own decisions. So they have achieved that while still keeping trade open with the EU.

A Dub in Glasgo

The Erasmus decision by the the UK govt is so petty - it is a real 'up yours' to the young people of this country (UK)

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1342135543652614144

road_high

So will U.K. based retailers like M&S etc continue as is in Ireland? Granted there’ll be extra form filling at ports but otherwise as you were?
They must have had some touch n go moments re their Irish business- no way they could survive with tariffs

Deliverance XXV

So hypothetical question - if order something from amazon.co.uk tonight for say 200 and it is due to be delivered after January 1st, what would the order be hit with?

mrunsure

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Erasmus decision by the the UK govt is so petty - it is a real 'up yours' to the young people of this country (UK)

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1342135543652614144

They don't care about the youth or intellectual vote. That's basically already 90% non-Tory. The Tories are on borrowed time demographically, hence they now target middle-aged working class people.

Str8outtaWuhan

Deliverance XXV wrote: »

So hypothetical question - if order something from amazon.co.uk tonight for say 200 and it is due to be delivered after January 1st, what would the order be hit with?

nothing , they are still "in" til 11pm 31st afaik

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

The tariffs are a red herring. They are going to have queues and chaos at their borders lasting years ; nothing can pass through their borders without checks and tons of documentation.

Them or us?

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

But the point being they don't want that deep level of integration and want to be a sovereign nation making their own decisions. So they have achieved that while still keeping trade open with the EU.

They got the same integration level as North Korea basically; only difference is NK has to pay tariffs but the controls on goods coming over the border (and related paperwork) is exactly the same. If that's your definition of same benefits as having every single truck and package stopped and checked at the border vs. the truck simply going through without controls, then yes, plenty of winning.

BonnieSituation

hotmail.com wrote: »

You obviously don't know much about European politics. If think Britain is racist wait till you hear about Hungary, Poland, Greece etc

Ah yes, our resident expert on world politics here to show us the way.

Honestly, I admire your tenacity. Though, I'd be lying if I said that I found it refreshing.