Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Nody

Nody wrote: »

UK has the exact same access as North Korea or pretty much any other nation in the world; they have zero unprecedented access to the EU market. They got the same or LESS access than any other country in the world (less because other countries have FTAs that include certification alignment etc. in country which UK does not). Any country in the world can export to the single market; literally speaking ANY country. UK is not unique or have a special deal or anything else here that you seem to think it is.

Once again; we've been through this before and sorry but you are so hilariously wrong it's not even funny. No, there will NOT be an IT solution in place to fix them; Switzerland has been in this situation for over 40 years and still don't have an IT solution in place nor will UK. The problem of the "red tape" and "friction" is not going away it will remain there and cost as linked above an approximate 7.5 billion a year in additional cost. And that's before UK starts to want to diverge from EU regulation; when they start to diverge the sampling and controls goes up even further than what will be in place on day 1. This was stated years ago as well before Brexit; the trade deal is not about tariffs; it's about the controls required to get your product into the market. This is the ball you, Boris and the rest of the Brexiteers still don't get, but don't worry you'll get a very direct lesson in Kent on the topic. Consider the Corona hold up an example of what's to come; except there's not a quick solution to it this time.

I'll say it again and again, they want to be a separate sovereign nation. All the points you are making as if it is some sort of gotcha, you seriously think they don't know what being a separate nation means? Yes just like North Korea. A separate country, well done you get it.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

But at the end of the day they have become a separate nation with unprecedented access to the EU market. Border checks, new forms to fill in etc is obviously part of being a separate nation, nobody has ever thought otherwise. The amount of red tape or "friction" if you are talking in the context of "friction free" access to the EU market will be resolved, mostly through IT solutions, over the coming years. Until then its a fairly insignificant point to be arguing over.

Where are you getting the idea that it's "unprecedented" access? It's similar to Switzerland, but definitely not as good. It's similar to Turkey, but not quite as good. It's somewhat like that enjoyed by South Korea and Japan ... but not quite as good. So what exactly are you seeing that's "unprecedented" ?

And as has been pointed out dozens of times before, despite the fact that some of the greatest IT nations have had to deal with these border headaches, not a single one has come close to resolving the friction. Not one. Ever. So whatever you might believe, it is a significant point, and it will cost Britons jobs and money.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

I'll say it again and again, they want to be a separate sovereign nation. All the points you are making as if it is some sort of gotcha, you seriously think they don't know what being a separate nation means? Yes just like North Korea.

Or France. Sovereign nations are separate to their neighbours. Grand, we're agreed.

Now what did you say the advantage was of being outside the EU but obliged to follow EU rules with no say in them?

combat14

this deal still has to be ratified by uk and 27 countries...

BorneTobyWilde

Everyone in the UK had lost the ability to move freely in the EU, to work in the EU, to Study in the EU, to Live in the EU. I'd be devastated to lose all those privileges

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

I'll say it again and again, they want to be a separate sovereign nation. All the points you are making as if it is some sort of gotcha, you seriously think they don't know what being a separate nation means? Yes just like North Korea. A separate country, well done you get it.

The "Gotcha" is your own claims of what they got and what will happen. There was nothing unique with the deal, there's nothing unique with their access, the friction you claim will go away is not going away, the promises made about Brexit were not actually met. These are all claims that you've made here in this thread and what we've been showing you why they are simply wrong. Yes, they will now be a secondary separate sovereign nation (because they are no longer part of the trade block in the area they trade in they become a rule taker rather than a sovereign state in it that is a rule maker) that will be in faster decline than previously (what's the lost growth to date, 200 billion GBP?); yay Brexit and sovereignty because we can make our economy worse even faster!

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

Or France. Sovereign nations are separate to their neighbours. Grand, we're agreed.

Now what did you say the advantage was of being outside the EU but obliged to follow EU rules with no say in them?

The EU will not be setting any regulations without UK cooperation and its native to think the UK will be adhereing to any regulations they don't agree to.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The EU will not be setting any regulations without UK cooperation and its native to think the UK will be adhereing to any regulations they don't agree to.

You are wrong.

Keep up.


The end.

I expect you might exit this thread as quick as you came in once the details emerge and the backlash from the ERG begins in earnest.

fash

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm aware there were lots of empty promises not fulfilled. But at the end of the day they have become a separate nation with unprecedented access to the EU market. .

... With unprecedented level playing field provisions.

.

Border checks, new forms to fill in etc is obviously part of being a separate nation, nobody has ever thought otherwise. .

Nonsense - Brexiters have always said it - remember everything about no change to the border in Northern Ireland?

The amount of red tape or "friction" if you are talking in the context of "friction free" access to the EU market will be resolved, mostly through IT solutions, over the coming years..

If that were the case, then effectively every economist in history and every country will need to revise their views on this.
Also if it turns out that 1+1 is not "2" as mathematicians have maintained - but instead "3", then a lot of mathematics will need to be rewritten. Let's see which happens first - my money is on a revision of mathematics - which is yours on?

Until then its a fairly insignificant point to be arguing over.

If you think the UK will do better - you should invest in sterling - it's still rather far down since the referendum (down from 1.44 to €1.11) - you will be able to make a killing against all of those silly money guys.

Nody

Nody wrote: »

The "Gotcha" is your own claims of what they got and what will happen. There was nothing unique with the deal, there's nothing unique with their access, the friction you claim will go away is not going away, the promises made about Brexit were not actually met. These are all claims that you've made here in this thread and what we've been showing you why they are simply wrong. Yes, they will now be a secondary separate sovereign nation (because they are no longer part of the trade block in the area they trade in) that will be in faster decline than previously; yay Brexit and sovereignty because we can make our economy worse even faster!

It is not a fact that their economy will fail because they have left the EU. Border checks are not a cause or a symptom of a failing economy. Out of all the scare tactics, tariffs being a big one, border checks is all you have left to cling onto and I'm sorry its just not that scary. Theyve got what they wanted and they've done it while keeping trade open with the EU. Nobody gives two sh!ts about border checks, sorry but its true. You must all be truck drivers the way you are crying about it.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

The EU will not be setting any regulations without UK cooperation and its native to think the UK will be adhereing to any regulations they don't agree to.

I think you've jumped the shark now.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It is not a fact that their economy will fail because they have left the EU. Border checks are not a cause or a symptom of a failing economy.

No losing service access to the largest market in the world..something which the majority of your economy is based around is though.

You know, the basic stuff.

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

So is it fair to say the Eurosceptics were right? They have agreed tarrif free trade while still being able to control their immigration. So seems you can actually have the benefits of the EU while being an outside sovereign nation.

You really don't understand the EU if you think trading tarrif free is the extent of it.

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

It is not a fact that their economy will fail because they have left the EU. Border checks are not a cause or a symptom of a failing economy.

No but they help accelerate them; you know what UK was doing really well? Finance and Services. Knows what's UK is poor at doing? Production. Guess which part is in the trade deal struck and which part is not in the trade deal. Now shuck on additional cost on what UK is doing poorly, stop UK from selling what they are doing well, and tell me how does that affect an economy?

briany

listermint wrote: »

You are wrong.

Keep up.


The end.

I expect you might exit this thread as quick as you came in once the details emerge and the backlash from the ERG begins in earnest.

The ERG will rant and rave over anything that falls short of their economically neo-liberal dream, but they need a mandate from the people of the UK to give this stance weight. As the rest of us are so fed up with this saga, I'll bet that mandate is drying up. And so if they continue to follow an ideologically-pure line, they could face substantial backlash from their own constituents. Hence, they'd want to tread carefully.

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

So they will be an independent sovereign nation that has a tariff free trade deal with the EU. Again, exactly what they said they would achieve. Of course there will be border controls, why is this constantly used as some sort of gotcha in Brexit debates. As if any Briton gives a toss that truck drivers have to go through border checks.

They might not give a toss now, but many of them will when they loose their job and businesses fold because JIT producion becomes unworkable due to delays, and small businesses that rely on exporting to the EU market can't afford the cost of compliance.

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

It is not a fact that their economy will fail because they have left the EU. Border checks are not a cause or a symptom of a failing economy. Out of all the scare tactics, tariffs being a big one, border checks is all you have left to cling onto and I'm sorry its just not that scary. Theyve got what they wanted and they've done it while keeping trade open with the EU. Nobody gives two sh!ts about border checks, sorry but its true. You must all be truck drivers the way you are crying about it.

This is pure weapons grade ignorence.
Non-tarrif barriers can be as significant a cost to trade as tarrifs. They will add a significant cost to business, which will cause job losses and will force businesses to close.

Your bald assertions have no merit and are simply not based in reality.
I for one am done dealing with your blatent bad faith posts.

Imreoir2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This is pure weapons grade ignorence.
Non-tarrif barriers can be as significant a cost to trade as tarrifs. They will add a significant cost to business, which will cause job losses and will force businesses to close.

Your bald assertions have no merit and are simply not based in reality.
I for one am done dealing with your blatent bad faith posts.

The deal wasn't as bad as people said (wished) it would be and the implementation of the trade deal will not be as bad as people are wishing it will be.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

I'll say it again and again, they want to be a separate sovereign nation. All the points you are making as if it is some sort of gotcha, you seriously think they don't know what being a separate nation means? Yes just like North Korea. A separate country, well done you get it.

listermint wrote: »

You are wrong.

Keep up.


The end.

I expect you might exit this thread as quick as you came in once the details emerge and the backlash from the ERG begins in earnest.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think you've jumped the shark now.

listermint wrote: »

No losing service access to the largest market in the world..something which the majority of your economy is based around is though.

You know, the basic stuff.

No more snarky comments please.

peter kern

Deleted User wrote: »

The EU will not be setting any regulations without UK cooperation and its native to think the UK will be adhereing to any regulations they don't agree to.

of course they dont have to agree to regulations but then access to eu market will be reduced and not tariff free in those areas.

https://www.ft.com/content/72938c66-638f-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

i guess lets look to somebody thats looking at it from outside with out the need to spin it that they 'won' .
new york times says so johnson delivered on his promise to get brexit done
new york times says but for that he had to make significant concessions
and basically for 80% of your trade you have no deal .
they have a trade free deal for 20 % of the econnomy.

tanko

So what will happen with the 80% of trade they have no deal for?
What will happen to financial/banking services etc in the city of London?

salonfire

peter kern wrote: »

they have a trade free deal for 20 % of your econnomy.

What will be reality on the ground come Jan 4th for Services?

Will all those accountants, lawyers, consultants, etc currently working for firms inside the EU be twiddling their thumbs with nothing to do? Could be quite the fall-out if that's the case.

I don't think it is though, based on the lack of commentary I can gather.

BorneTobyWilde

No way is Ireland ready to deal with 1000s of truck in 6 days.

10000maniacs

tanko wrote: »

So what will happen with the 80% of trade they have no deal for?
What will happen to financial/banking services etc in the city of London?

That still has to be negotiated. It might take years if at all. Literally 1000's of mini deals need to be done on services.

Imreoir2

salonfire wrote: »

What will be reality on the ground come Jan 4th for Services?

Will all those accountants, lawyers, consultants, etc currently working for firms inside the EU be twiddling their thumbs with nothing to do? Could be quite the fall-out if that's the case.

I don't think it is though, based on the lack of commentary I can gather.

It's not covered in the deal, as such it is subject to the whim of the EU.
Indications are that the EU will allow access to continue for the time being in those areas that are beneficial to the EU, subject to terms and condition, and also subject to change at any time.

Many firms have already begun transferring significant sections of their European business into subsidiaries based in the EU to avoid any access issues into the future, and as the realities and restrictions of the new system become clear that process is likely to continue. City of London is likely to go into decline over the next decade as the EU has every reason to adopt policies to strip business away from the UK.

BorneTobyWilde

How on earth is Ireland going to track and charge vat on things people buy from the uk? Lets say from Ebay, a person buys a used pair of jeans, and the seller posts them to a person in Ireland.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

The EU will not be setting any regulations without UK cooperation and its native to think the UK will be adhereing to any regulations they don't agree to.

If the EU brings in a regulation that all widgets must be made of Magrol plastic from the First of Jultober 2023. The UK must if it wants to sell them into the EU comply, and get CE approval from a EU standards authority.

Now when they export these widgets, the customs will check they are certified CE approved on the paperwork, and then sample the shipment to see the actual product complies. This may require the samples going to the local standards authority for checking. Meanwhile, the truck waits or goes home. If they fail or are not correctly certified, they do not enter the EU.

Now if widgets is a big part of that suppliers business, the widgets will be made of Magrol plastic and certified CE compliant by a qualified EU standards authority. These standards are well signalled in advance, and any serious supplier will take them, well, seriously.

Now if the widgets managed to get through customs by falsely certifying the product the there will be unpleasant consequences - sanctions, fines, perhaps punitive tariffs, etc.

No supplier wants the search light of sanctions shone in their direction.

Imreoir2

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How on earth is Ireland going to track and charge vat on things people buy from the uk? Lets say from Ebay, a person buys a used pair of jeans, and the seller posts them to a person in Ireland.

Presumably in exactly the same way it works for products coming from outside the EU at the moment?

Strazdas

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How on earth is Ireland going to track and charge vat on things people buy from the uk? Lets say from Ebay, a person buys a used pair of jeans, and the seller posts them to a person in Ireland.

Well such a package will have to list the price of the product i.e. what the buyer paid for it and include this on a customs declaration.

Strazdas

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

No way is Ireland ready to deal with 1000s of truck in 6 days.

Why not? One assumes that anything coming from the EU through the landbridge will only need cursory checks.

All of the checks will be on GB-Ire freight only.