Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Deub

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's not covered in the deal, as such it is subject to the whim of the EU.
Indications are that the EU will allow access to continue for the time being in those areas that are beneficial to the EU, subject to terms and condition, and also subject to change at any time.

Many firms have already begun transferring significant sections of their European business into subsidiaries based in the EU to avoid any access issues into the future, and as the realities and restrictions of the new system become clear that process is likely to continue. City of London is likely to go into decline over the next decade as the EU has every reason to adopt policies to strip business away from the UK.

Here is an article about the situation on financial services:
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN28Y1EK?

For now, it is mini deals (6 to 18 months) apparently.

BorneTobyWilde

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Presumably in exactly the same way it works for products coming from outside the EU at the moment?

But those products from outside of EU come via plane, no one is driving a pair of jeans from China to Ireland.
All goes through the airport, and they know it's all from outside of EU.



A part load coming into Ireland could be part filled in France, Germany ect, part filled in UK, and then into Ireland,

Sexual Chocolate

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Presumably in exactly the same way it works for products coming from outside the EU at the moment?

I've read lots of different answers to this across boards today so I'm just going to ask myself.

After the 1st of January will we have to pay VAT on things we buy from the UK such a items from eBay, Amazon or even importing a car etc ?

yagan

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How on earth is Ireland going to track and charge vat on things people buy from the uk? Lets say from Ebay, a person buys a used pair of jeans, and the seller posts them to a person in Ireland.

Same as happens when people buy from the USA and elsewhere, customs apply the relevant tariff and if the customer doesn't pay they don't get the package.

Usually it's An Post who collects the charge for consumer items.

breezy1985

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

But those products from outside of EU come via plane, no one is driving a pair of jeans from China to Ireland.
All goes through the airport, and they know it's all from outside of EU.



A part load coming into Ireland could be part filled in France, Germany ect, part filled in UK, and then into Ireland,

How is a pair of jeans from eBay getting part filled in France ?

BorneTobyWilde

Strazdas wrote: »

Why not? One assumes that anything coming from the EU through the landbridge will only need cursory checks.

All of the checks will be on GB-Ire freight only.

How do you check a double decker curtainsider with 50 pallets of parcels all going here there and everywhere, and how do customs get the deals of what was spent on those items.

I buy things on ebay uk, a lot of used stuff, nothing comes with paperwork or details of money spent. A seller just posts out the item in a parcel bag ect. .

yagan

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

But those products from outside of EU come via plane, no one is driving a pair of jeans from China to Ireland.
All goes through the airport, and they know it's all from outside of EU.



A part load coming into Ireland could be part filled in France, Germany ect, part filled in UK, and then into Ireland,

You've just hit on future problems for GB exports.

For example Japan can now sell its car straight into the EU without tariffs so having the plants they built in Britain to make cars for the EU market no longer make sense.

They may end up continuing production for the domestic British market, like the plants they have in Brazil, Thailand, Mexico etc..

It will now be cheaper for us to buy a new Toyota directly from Japan than a Toyota from Britain.

listermint

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How do you check a double decker curtainsider with 50 pallets of parcels all going here there and everywhere, and how do customs get the deals of what was spent on those items.

I buy things on ebay uk, a lot of used stuff, nothing comes with paperwork or details of money spent. A seller just posts out the item in a parcel bag ect. .

Simple. The entire trailer is checked , held up literally and checked against its paperwork.

It doesn't matter how long it takes customs dont care.

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the EU brings in a regulation that all widgets must be made of Magrol plastic from the First of Jultober 2023. The UK must if it wants to sell them into the EU comply, and get CE approval from a EU standards authority.

Now when they export these widgets, the customs will check they are certified CE approved on the paperwork, and then sample the shipment to see the actual product complies. This may require the samples going to the local standards authority for checking. Meanwhile, the truck waits or goes home. If they fail or are not correctly certified, they do not enter the EU.

Now if widgets is a big part of that suppliers business, the widgets will be made of Magrol plastic and certified CE compliant by a qualified EU standards authority. These standards are well signalled in advance, and any serious supplier will take them, well, seriously.

Now if the widgets managed to get through customs by falsely certifying the product the there will be unpleasant consequences - sanctions, fines, perhaps punitive tariffs, etc.

No supplier wants the search light of sanctions shone in their direction.

That maybe how you`d like it to work Sam,but it`s highly unlikely the EU has entered into an unprecedented deal with the UK only to be awkward just for the sake of it.Don`t forget the EU is actually getting access to the fishing grounds which are much more important than the usual brexit thread posters like to admit.Linked to a fishing deal shorter than the EU originally wanted(but the EU did`nt compromise according to propaganda here)the UK does have leverage down the line.
Having said all that though,I see this as the beginning,not the end and I would`nt be surprised if there are announcements regarding services,recognition of qualifications etc coming pretty soon.

Padre_Pio

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the EU brings in a regulation that all widgets must be made of Magrol plastic from the First of Jultober 2023. The UK must if it wants to sell them into the EU comply, and get CE approval from a EU standards authority.

And bear in mind that CE is a big stepping stone to compliance in Australia, Japan, Canada and US.

If UK want their own rules, they'll need to show equivalence to existing standards. So why reinvent the wheel?

Compliance is very expensive. it makes no sense to go your own way.

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe how you`d like it to work Sam,but it`s highly unlikely the EU has entered into an unprecedented deal with the UK only to be awkward just for the sake of it.Don`t forget the EU is actually getting access to the fishing grounds which are much more important than the usual brexit thread posters like to admit.Linked to a fishing deal shorter than the EU originally wanted(but the EU did`nt compromise according to propaganda here)the UK does have leverage down the line.
Having said all that though,I see this as the beginning,not the end and I would`nt be surprised if there are announcements regarding services,recognition of qualifications etc coming pretty soon.

That's all conjecture Rob.

You've been saying for ages that the EU would fold, or throw Ireland under the bus (maybe I'm confusing you for someone else).
None of it has happened. Why would these announcements have been made if they were going to be undone in the near future?

BorneTobyWilde

listermint wrote: »

Simple. The entire trailer is checked , held up literally and checked against its paperwork.

It doesn't matter how long it takes customs dont care.

Trust me with 1000 trucks held up they'd care.

Vestiapx

Strazdas wrote: »

Well such a package will have to list the price of the product i.e. what the buyer paid for it and include this on a customs declaration.

https://www.revenue.ie/en/vat/goods-and-services-to-and-from-abroad/acquisitions-from-other-eu-member-states/what-are-vies-and-intrastat.aspx

RobMc59

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And bear in mind that CE is a big stepping stone to compliance in Australia, Japan, Canada and US.

If UK want their own rules, they'll need to show equivalence to existing standards. So why reinvent the wheel?

Compliance is very expensive. it makes no sense to go your own way.




That's all conjecture Rob.

You've been saying for ages that the EU would fold, or throw Ireland under the bus.
None of it has happened. Why would these announcements have been made if they were going to be undone in the near future?

I`ve said no such thing that the EU would fold or throw Ireland anywhere.
Sam could probably have used a better example than the British invention,the widget.

listermint

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trust me with 1000 trucks held up they'd care.

I trust no one. I do however trust fines for trade breaches and prison sentences from revenue. They are true. Think 7 years for garlic man and amplify that if you think stuff is just going to be Blaise.

PeadarCo

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trust me with 1000 trucks held up they'd care.

They won't care. There is a reason the UK has invested in Lorry parks. Similarly in Ireland customs infrastructure in Dublin port has been upgraded to deal with the extra work. Again the same in France. A few weeks ago when the French were testing part of their system they caused a multi kilometers tail back in Kent. Now they were only testing the checking of passports and not the full customs checks. They didn't care. You can't force your way through customs. No country/trade bloc would ever allow that to happen as it would make it very easy to get around tarrifs and regulations ie just overload a customs check. Unfortunately the real world doesn't work like. If the paperwork isn't correct the goods will go no further. Thats the job of customs.

Sam Russell

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How do you check a double decker curtainsider with 50 pallets of parcels all going here there and everywhere, and how do customs get the deals of what was spent on those items.

I buy things on ebay uk, a lot of used stuff, nothing comes with paperwork or details of money spent. A seller just posts out the item in a parcel bag ect. .

Well, no customs declaration, then it gets sent back, or you will be asked to fill in a declaration, or it will be binned. At the end of the day, the customs officer will assess its value.

Ebay - UK will be advising their users of the rules.

A lot of ebay.co.uk sellers will not send to Ireland at he moment, it will become most very soon.

By the way, VAT will be charged (and collected) on all values from next July.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

I`ve said no such thing that the EU would fold or throw Ireland anywhere.
Sam could probably have used a better example than the British invention,the widget.

I think we will all find that the services will be a really long drawn out process with the EU looking to strip the UK off what it has in order to bring all of it in house including financial clearing.

To say those talks will follow and be agreed quickly is to demonstrate a lack of understanding of what's going on.

Make no mistake fish means f all in the scheme of things. The French will quite happily replace all of that trade with financial services if needs be. And those countries will be vying for it.

The UK is over the barrel in economic terms.

yagan

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trust me with 1000 trucks held up they'd care.

In the single market truck don't get held up (exempting pandemic precautions, port strikes and acts of nature like storms and earthquakes), but GB is about to realise that if each shipment doesn't have the correct paperwork is goes nowhere until it does.

Padre_Pio

Regardless, the UK has been entwined with the EU for 50 years.

They haven't even started undoing the supply chain knots. January will be a sobering time for many in the UK. Hope their stockpiling was sufficient.

BorneTobyWilde

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, no customs declaration, then it gets sent back, or you will be asked to fill in a declaration, or it will be binned. At the end of the day, the customs officer will assess its value.

Ebay - UK will be advising their users of the rules.

A lot of ebay.co.uk sellers will not send to Ireland at he moment, it will become most very soon.

By the way, VAT will be charged (and collected) on all values from next July.

I ship everything I buy to family in UK anyway to avoid postal costs, always someone coming over to bring it across.

PeadarCo

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe how you`d like it to work Sam,but it`s highly unlikely the EU has entered into an unprecedented deal with the UK only to be awkward just for the sake of it.Don`t forget the EU is actually getting access to the fishing grounds which are much more important than the usual brexit thread posters like to admit.Linked to a fishing deal shorter than the EU originally wanted(but the EU did`nt compromise according to propaganda here)the UK does have leverage down the line.
Having said all that though,I see this as the beginning,not the end and I would`nt be surprised if there are announcements regarding services,recognition of qualifications etc coming pretty soon.

The reality is that over time regulations naturally change and it will happen in both the EU and UK. And also naturally with different people making the regulations with different external and internal pressures there are going to be differences. Neither the UK or EU will be trying anything awkward. But eventually those changes will cause problems with the status quo. That's when the fun begins.

I'd disagree with your idea that the deal is unprecedented in the grand scheme of things. Unprecedented in the sense that the UK is a former member. But beyond that it appears on face value to be similar to the Canada and Japan deals or put it another way its where Barnier forecast the deal would end up 4 years ago based on the UKs red lines.

BorneTobyWilde

yagan wrote: »

In the single market truck don't get held up (exempting pandemic precautions, port strikes and acts of nature like storms and earthquakes), but GB is about to realise that if each shipment doesn't have the correct paperwork is goes nowhere until it does.

6 days to get it in order, no chance, will be 40000 trucks held up, not just 4000 like yesterday.

salonfire

Deub wrote: »

Here is an article about the situation on financial services:
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN28Y1EK?

For now, it is mini deals (6 to 18 months) apparently.

Just as I said, a complete fudge and cop out from the EU.

The UK retains access to tariff free export to the EU without any of the obligations while Services can continue to fudge along. Why are the UK allowed to sell services at all after the Jan 1st? They are not in the EU and it is not covered by the Trade Deal.

For a part of the economy that is so regulated (accounting, banking, etc), they sure like to fudge along. On what basis are the UK selling the services? Their qualifications are not recognized from now on.

London bankers should have been turfed out of the EU come January if the EU had any backbone at all.

Have each of these mini-deals been approved by the EU Parliament? If not, why not? I don't want some shyster outside the EU and outside the bounds of a Trade Deal involved in any of my euro transactions.

yagan

listermint wrote: »

I think we will all find that the services will be a really long drawn out process with the EU looking to strip the UK off what it has in order to bring all of it in house including financial clearing.

To say those talks will follow and be agreed quickly is to demonstrate a lack of understanding of what's going on.

Make no mistake fish means f all in the scheme of things. The French will quite happily replace all of that trade with financial services if needs be. And those countries will be vying for it.

The UK is over the barrel in economic terms.

That is the ugly brutal truth of it.

Harrods has a higher annual turnover than British fishing, and Toy'r'Us actually employed 6 times more people than fishing before it closed.

Fishing is merely totemic of Britain's attempt to accept its shrunken stature since it ruled the waves a century ago.

yagan

salonfire wrote: »

Just as I said, a complete fudge and cop out from the EU.

The UK retains access to tariff free export to the EU without any of the obligations while Services can continue to fudge along. Why are the UK allowed to sell services at all after the Jan 1st? They are not in the EU and it is not covered by the Trade Deal.

For a part of the economy that is so regulated (accounting, banking, etc), they sure like to fudge along. On what basis are the UK selling the services? Their qualifications are not recognized from now on.

London bankers should have been turfed out of the EU come January if the EU had any backbone at all.

The EU can pick and choose what services it wishes to retain. The nation of shop keepers looks more like a carboot sale now.

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

Sam could probably have used a better example than the British invention, the widget.

Well I used the term 'Widget' to mean

A placeholder name for an unnamed, unspecified, or hypothetical manufactured good or product.

It is a term used in Management training to mean a fictitious product. The term has obviously leaked out to become something real - well sort of real - app buttons.

I doubt it is a British invention - but anyway - it is a nothing term, but you can have it if you like.

yagan

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

6 days to get it in order, no chance, will be 40000 trucks held up, not just 4000 like yesterday.

Not our problem.

Hauliers in Ireland have been buying left hand drive cabs in recent years as direct routes now mean the short part of the journey is to the Irish port now that Britain is being bypassed.

This is a complete reoriation away from trade with Britain, not that hadn't been happening already.

hotmail.com

BonnieSituation wrote: »

This is such insight.

That you feel the need to play the whataboutery card in here about the clear xenophobic and racist reasons that were to the fore in the Brexit campaign clearly shows that you have trouble with seeing more than one reason for anything. Nuance and shades of grey aren't your friend.

You're the one blaming Brexit on one thing.

Strazdas

Sexual Chocolate wrote: »

I've read lots of different answers to this across boards today so I'm just going to ask myself.

After the 1st of January will we have to pay VAT on things we buy from the UK such a items from eBay, Amazon or even importing a car etc ?

Yes, we certainly will, including eBay and Amazon. This is 100% confirmed.

Rrrrrr2

I think the deal is good for Ireland in so far as there's no awful crash out- we can continue to trade away in monetary terms as we did with the UK and continue a trajectory we've been on for a long time- moving away from the UK market as our once main export/import market.
The extra paperwork and customs will be a pain in the arse- but at least it buys time with no tariff burden to either develop new markets or new import partners outside the UK as suppliers see fit.
If the paperwork becomes too much of an issue for the UK side I can see them coming back for concessions and restoration of ease of access but that will be up to them and there will be a price of course. Extra bureaucracy never adds value to a chain only cost and time which makes things less competitive - that might be a hard lesson for the UK but not our problem.