Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-has-won-the-biggest-brexit-prize-of-all/amp?__twitter_impression=true

The Spectator selling the lack of any deal in services and the regulatory freedom that comes with as the biggest win of Brexit.

"We will now be able to embrace technologies from artificial intelligence, to driverless cars, flying taxis, lab-grown meat and vertical farms (oh, and vaccines, which the EU seems very slow to approve, even amid a pandemic).

It will take time, but with regulatory divergence the UK will steadily pull ahead of rivals such as France and Germany which you would normally expect to perform as well as, if not slightly better, than the UK. We will be more innovative, attract more capital, and our companies will seize markets more quickly, than they otherwise would have done."

Good luck to them.

Triangle

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

With a 25% reduction in value of quota caught in UK waters for the next 5.5 years at which time the UK can decide to completely remove all EU access after a period of 3 months. Terrible deal for fishermen in Ireland.

That's entirely misquoted.
It's stipulated that at the end of the time, it's renegotiated with the idea that the EU still has access. Just the amount of access is renegotiated.
It's giving Boris his 'win' that he can shout about.

murphaph

Fantasists. If these technologies are safe then they will be regulated for by the EU across its huge market. Who are the Brits going to sell their AI meat free robots to anyway?? Lol.

Igotadose

looksee wrote: »

Just on the topic of importing from the UK, I recently purchased an item from Screwfix Ireland - there was no indication that I was purchasing from the UK, and a previous purchase from them apparently came from Ireland. The delivery notification told me it was coming from the UK and it took 2 weeks to do so. So what happens in future? I think I am ordering locally and discover I am caught in the whole customs/regulations thing? Do they have any obligation to say where goods are coming from?

There was a thread about Screwfix and their deliveries not that long ago; Took them about a month to deliver something I ordered late in October. You're right, they're shipping everything from the UK now, when I ordered there was no indication that I had a choice of where to ship from. I would expect this to get clarified over time as Brexit infects business processes more completely. The EU will likely insist.

combat14

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe how you`d like it to work Sam,but it`s highly unlikely the EU has entered into an unprecedented deal with the UK only to be awkward just for the sake of it.Don`t forget the EU is actually getting access to the fishing grounds which are much more important than the usual brexit thread posters like to admit.Linked to a fishing deal shorter than the EU originally wanted(but the EU did`nt compromise according to propaganda here)the UK does have leverage down the line.
Having said all that though,I see this as the beginning,not the end and I would`nt be surprised if there are announcements regarding services,recognition of qualifications etc coming pretty soon.

fisheries apparently makes up less than 1% of eu gnp

there are bigger fish to fry so to speak ...

Jizique

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Better than zero

British boats still have access to EU waters?

breezy1985

looksee wrote: »

Just on the topic of importing from the UK, I recently purchased an item from Screwfix Ireland - there was no indication that I was purchasing from the UK, and a previous purchase from them apparently came from Ireland. The delivery notification told me it was coming from the UK and it took 2 weeks to do so. So what happens in future? I think I am ordering locally and discover I am caught in the whole customs/regulations thing? Do they have any obligation to say where goods are coming from?

Could be wrong but if Screwfix Ireland is registered in Ireland then Screwfix UK would count as their supplier and any charges and paperwork are on them same as if you buy something in a shop and the item originated in the UK.

rock22

fash wrote: »

The Canada and Japan FTAs retain some tariffs (something like 98% tariff free). That couldn't be done with the UK in the time available (1 year versus 10 to go through line by line tens of thousands of lines of tariffs and quotas - and to understand what your own stakeholders would accept/sacrifice) - there had to be an "all or nothing" approach. Consequently UK has signed up to the toughest level playing field restrictions in any FTA in history I believe.

There was a quote which clarified that only UK good were tariff free. If an item from UK contained parts from outside UK and EU then tariffs would apply. I think this was clarification requested from car manufacturers. I can't find that link right now but it quoted David Davis so a while back. I wonder will this apply to general goods, for instance clothes bought in M&S but made in China ( so they are not UK goods)?

In terns of An Post charging €10 for custom clearance, I recently paid DHL €16.60 and a UK seller told me that all packages would not include a £6.00 charge for his custom agent in UK plus the receiver being liable to the receiver courier for their custom clearance fee of £13.60 ( which is only slightly less than the €16.30

For the past year i have attempted to use German , Czech or Italian suppliers. Although these are all small value, it will have an impact on the retail sector in UK

fash

rock22 wrote: »

There was a quote which clarified that only UK good were tariff free. If an item from UK contained parts from outside UK and EU then tariffs would apply. I think this was clarification requested from car manufacturers. I can't find that link right now but it quoted David Davis so a while back. I wonder will this apply to general goods, for instance clothes bought in M&S but made in China ( so they are not UK goods)?

Yes it applies to everything - they need a certain minimum content to qualify for the tariff and quota free benefit - e.g. 55% content from UK/EU. I believe UK food processors/producers are badly affected - flour from Canada etc.

Choosehowevr.

How does this affect car manufacturing in the UK?

I think they were already losing jobs

Northam

Will chilled processed foods from GB be banned from in the EU and Northern Ireland or are they likely to be covered by the trade deal does anyone know?

ancapailldorcha

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

How does this affect car manufacturing in the UK?

I think they were already losing jobs

In the short term, it will become significantly more expensive and inefficient. Longer term, I can't see manufacturers hanging around.

As far as I can tell, we get to avoid tariffs for goods and in exchange we lose pretty much all of the benefits of being in the EU. This is probably all that could have been hoped for realistically but if people just lap this up, I've lost all faith in them. I don't think they will. The culture war that was epitomised by Brexit isn't going to just go away. It'll just evolve.

mrunsure

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I'm interested in moving to Ireland from England but it won't be for a few years yet because of my partner's job. This may seem a silly thing, but I'm worried that the problems with online shopping will put my partner off the idea. She subscribes to Amazon Prime and doesn't like shopping in physical shops. I'm also worried about how much it is going to cost. I've got most of my money within stock market investments that are sheltered from tax within ISAs. So I'd be paying a lot of tax on my investments if I moved to Ireland. Housing in Ireland is so expensive as well. So we would be massively worse off moving to Ireland. I'm prepared to pay the price but not sure my partner is. The alternative is to move to Scotland where she comes from where housing is cheap, it enjoys a favourable tax situation for investing and they can use UK online shopping.

Regardless, I definitely want to leave England as I've disowned it since 2016.

Nate--IRL--

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The culture war that was epitomised by Brexit isn't going to just go away. It'll just evolve.

It's like a slow motion car crash to be honest, I find myself morbidly fascinated by it.

Nate

Choosehowevr.

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

It's like a slow motion car crash to be honest, I find myself morbidly fascinated by it.

Nate

I reckon it could speed up a lot now

johnnyskeleton

10000maniacs wrote: »

Both the BBC and Sky are using the word "sovereignty" to describe the deal.
"This is how sovereignty feels" is the Sky soundbite headline tonight.
When was the UK not sovereign?

I assume that reasonable media outlets and politicians have decided that in order to ensure that the hardliners don't kick off, they will talk up the deal instead of pointing out its flaws. They realise that there is no more time or opportunity for anything else so they are going to get behind this deal or indeed any deal, as preferable to no deal.

fash

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I assume that reasonable media outlets and politicians have decided that in order to ensure that the hardliners don't kick off, they will talk up the deal instead of pointing out its flaws. They realise that there is no more time or opportunity for anything else so they are going to get behind this deal or indeed any deal, as preferable to no deal.

They possibly also promised Farage a seat in the House of Lord's.

Nody

Northam wrote: »

Will chilled processed foods from GB be banned from in the EU and Northern Ireland or are they likely to be covered by the trade deal does anyone know?

Likely to be banned as it's not allowed for any other country and Boris did not crow about the fact their sausages would continue to be sold in NI etc.

ancapailldorcha

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

It's like a slow motion car crash to be honest, I find myself morbidly fascinated by it.

Nate

In fairness, Brexit is a huge event in global politics. The UK is a highly influential nation and it's not every day you get to see a global power vote for its own decline. It also affects Ireland significantly and this is an Irish-owned and operated website so there's that.

Unlike the US and Trump, there's no restrictions on whatever definition the Tories could apply to Brexit and it's effectively irreversible unless Labour win power and smell a change in the political winds but I can't see that happening until 2030-2035 at the earliest.

ancapailldorcha

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I assume that reasonable media outlets and politicians have decided that in order to ensure that the hardliners don't kick off, they will talk up the deal instead of pointing out its flaws. They realise that there is no more time or opportunity for anything else so they are going to get behind this deal or indeed any deal, as preferable to no deal.

I think the other issue is that this is the end in the eyes of the British public whereas in actuality it is the beginning of the UK's new relationship with the EU. Given the people see this as the end of Brexit, talking down the deal isn't going to achieve anything. The public have been dealing with this for years and are now content to just have it done at any cost as evinced by the 2019 election result.

It's probably relevant that older voters are more likely to consume "traditional" media such as newspapers and news programmes whereas the younger demographics prefer Youtube and social media.

lawred2

This will soon be yesterday's news in Britain. They'll get on with it and deal with whatever.

Good or bad.

Already hearing from a few relatives and friends who would have been remainers a sort of disinterest towards it all.. time to move on etc. Ultimately British people maybe don't do business in the same technocratic/rules based way that EU business is conducted.

I fear we'll be still banging on about Brexit longer than most British people will.

rock22

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In fairness, Brexit is a huge event in global politics.....

it's effectively irreversible unless Labour win power and smell a change in the political winds but I can't see that happening until 2030-2035 at the earliest.

I don't think it is so easily reversible no matter who wins a UK election.
I cannot see many EU nations allowing a UK entry into the EU within the next 20-30 years and even after that period it is not too clear.

I could see an Independent Scotland being accepted ( although i cannot really see an independent Scotland) and then perhaps England and Wales but i think we are talking generations away.

yagan

lawred2 wrote: »

This will soon be yesterday's news in Britain.

I fear we'll be still banging on about Brexit longer than most British people will.

Aside from the post vote hit to GBP it's only from Jan 1st that domestically the real effects of Brexit exit the fog and become real, the sunny uplands actually feel like the dull estuary flats of Leave voting Norfolk.

lawred2

yagan wrote: »

Aside from the post vote hit to GBP it's only from Jan 1st that domestically the real effects of Brexit exit the fog and become real, the sunny uplands actually feel like the dull estuary flats of Leave voting Norfolk.

That's from our perspective

listermint

lawred2 wrote: »

That's from our perspective

Jobs put a massive perspective on things.


Alot of white washing going on last two days of the incredible impact of all of this.


Rules arent just for Christmas...

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

Jobs put a massive perspective on things.


Alot of white washing going on last two days of the incredible impact of all of this.


Rules arent just for Christmas...

I think 4 years of evidence ignored should be enough to convince us all to move on and stop wasting our energy.

Choosehowevr.

This is only the beginning

There's going to be a never ending ding-dong

UK will be hoping to get most of the benefits without paying after the agreement

fash

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/boris-johnson-brexit-deal-fishing-6868912

We had a few irexit types claim that Irish fishermen got screwed, but not only do they retain most their access, reviewed every 4 years (as is whole deal) it’s something that no other “sovereign” country like Canada or Japan with whom EU has tariff free deal has given up.

Like I said the alternative is zero access, this deal is an incredible win for Ireland and EU

Plus of course the irony of "... therefore let's leave the EU so we get zero access to UK fishing waters and have the EU ask for access to ours - or else".

breezy1985

lawred2 wrote: »

This will soon be yesterday's news in Britain. They'll get on with it and deal with whatever.

Good or bad.

Already hearing from a few relatives and friends who would have been remainers a sort of disinterest towards it all.. time to move on etc. Ultimately British people maybe don't do business in the same technocratic/rules based way that EU business is conducted.

I fear we'll be still banging on about Brexit longer than most British people will.

This is certainly not the experience I am having with my friends and family in the UK. No disinterest and definitely no sense of moving on or just getting on with it. The idea that we are "banging on" about makes me think that you are not much of a remainer if you are at all

Also my own experience of life in the UK is they are some of the most technocratic/rules based people I have ever met, certainly more than the Irish are

lawred2

breezy1985 wrote: »

This is certainly not the experience I am having with my friends and family in the UK. No disinterest and definitely no sense of moving on or just getting on with it. The idea that we are "banging on" about makes me think that you are not much of a remainer if you are at all

Also my own experience of life in the UK is they are some of the most technocratic/rules based people I have ever met, certainly more than the Irish are

Oh yeah, hard Brexiteer me mate. The most ardent Brexiteer in North Dublin.

Maybe "banging on" isn't quite what I meant... Lamenting is probably closer to what I was thinking.