Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Again, can I have the euromillions numbers please?

So in the future the U.K. join up to RCEP, a bloc of 2.2 billion people, they’ll be no better off than still trading with a block of 450 million, who they already have an FTA with. I can’t follow that logic.

Germany and Italy have both been relatively more successful at exporting goods to both the US and China during 2020, with the UK recording drops of 30% and 18% to the respective markets:

https://www.ft.com/content/78f4dc9d-33bc-4bd6-a61d-f0d69d7e997d

peter kern

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Again, can I have the euromillions numbers please?

So in the future the U.K. join up to RCEP, a bloc of 2.2 billion people, they’ll be no better off than still trading with a block of 450 million, who they already have an FTA with. I can’t follow that logic.

Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org › wiki › Compr...

It predicts a number of macro-economic and sector-specific impacts, suggesting the EU may see increases in real GDP of 0.02–0.03% in the long-term from CETA, whereas Canada may see increases of 0.18–0.36%;

a similar number is shown for uk for a deal with usa, so yes i guess its really extremly unlikely trade deals with the whole world will outbalance what you lose with not being part of a total frictionless deal aka eu.

Donald Trump

trellheim wrote: »

Can some one explain in small words why Labour in the UK will not oppose this deal - I know the Tories have a majority so it will go through but whats the benefit to Labour to endorse or abstain on something that is very clearly a bad outcome for the UK ?

It is a binary choice. This deal or "no deal".



If you don't support one then you are helping the other.



So I would guess that they are trying to be honest about which of those two (and to repeat, there are only two) choices is the better one.

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

Can some one explain in small words why Labour in the UK will not oppose this deal - I know the Tories have a majority so it will go through but whats the benefit to Labour to endorse or abstain on something that is very clearly a bad outcome for the UK ?

I would think their best bet is a 'free vote' where more than 50% vote for it, a few against and the rest abstain.

That way they do not own the result which ever way it goes, but if the Tories vote en bloc against it, they own 'No Deal', and if it goes through they own the deal.

Lose-lose for the Tories and let off for Labour.

Imreoir2

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

It’s 2020 not 1800, plus the U.K. are predominantly a services industry so it’s not geoblocked like agrifood or fish etc.

Yeah they do more trade with here than those countries ‘to date’ but what’s to stop it changing.

I feel like I’m wasting my time coming from a place of ‘anything other than the norm of the EU trade bloc’, seems I’m talking about a future 1000’s of years away.

I asked for a shred of evidence, I have yet to see it. Am I to assume the reason for this is that you have not a shread of evidence to support your position?

HalfAndHalf

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I asked for a shred of evidence, I have yet to see it. Am I to assume the reason for this is that you have not a shread of evidence to support your position?

You want me to provide evidence of something that hasn’t happened yet? Wow wait there I’ll prove a negative first just for the craic!!

Jaysus I’ll leave this alone now, ye’ve no capacity for anything other than old fashioned trading so there’s little point us discussing it any more.

Strazdas

kowloon wrote: »

So, how easy would it be for a future government to get out of this deal? Could we have a situation where nothing ever fully stabilises again because the possibility of another break-up is always on the horizon with renegotiations?

They could get out of it by seeking to move closer to the EU by negotiating a new trade deal (or even by applying to join the SM).

Trying to rip it up though would be much more problematic and would cause trouble.

Enzokk

Headshot wrote: »

Labour should really abstain from voting on this.

trellheim wrote: »

Can some one explain in small words why Labour in the UK will not oppose this deal - I know the Tories have a majority so it will go through but whats the benefit to Labour to endorse or abstain on something that is very clearly a bad outcome for the UK ?

Labour cannot win with Brexit, but the UK will lose if they don't vote for this deal. They will have to hope the rebellion from the Tories doesn't mean their votes mean this goes through, but this deal whatever they do will be the Tories deal. They agreed to the referendum, they were in charge for the May WA, then the Johnson WA and finally they got a majority to enact Brexit. This is the Tories to own just like Iraq was Labour's even when the Tories supported action as well.

TLDR, rather this crappy deal than no-deal. The adults has taken charge in Labour so they will not play politics when the stakes are so big.

Imreoir2

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

You want me to provide evidence of something that hasn’t happened yet? Wow wait there I’ll prove a negative first just for the craic!!

Jaysus I’ll leave this alone now, ye’ve no capacity for anything other than old fashioned trading so there’s little point us discussing it any more.

I want you to show how joining an Asian free trade agrrement will make up for the loss to the UK of leaving the EU. It is your argument that this would be the case.

If your only argument is that it *could* happen, then I would point out that there could be a tea kettle orbiting Jupiter right now for all we know. I have as much evidence to support that suggestion.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

Any trade deal with the Chinese empire will only be negotiated on Chinese terms, and Chinese terms only.
In other words the Chinese will dictate the terms and all other countries agree or - no deal.
China has the dominant position to do this now, the same will be true of any future EU - China Deal when the present deal is up for renewal.

From 2016 The UK vetoed an EU ban on China dumping steel in order to save the average English family £4.80 on cheap shoes.

Since then China bought the UK steel plant that makes the rails for HS2.

The British Steel sister plant in France had it's sale to China blocked because the French regarded it as a strategic asset because it make rails.

A reminder that the Blue Passports are made by a French company because the UK didn't use the available EU rules. The French played the security card and didn't export the production of passports.


And the UK is depending on Chinese money to fund it's new nuclear power plants.


And the Chinese won't hold a grudge from the Opium Wars or allowing lots of people in Hong Kong to claim UK passports ?



An interesting question is whether the UK will get a better deal with China than Iceland got.

Iceland are exporting Fish and Geothermal tech.

HalfAndHalf

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I want you to show how joining an Asian free trade agrrement will make up for the loss to the UK of leaving the EU. It is your argument that this would be the case.

If your only argument is that it *could* happen, then I would point out that there could be a tea kettle orbiting Jupiter right now for all we know. I have as much evidence to support that suggestion.

I never said it would make up for any loss of the new EU/U.K. deal, please done misrepresent what I’ve said to try poorly to make your already weak point.

All I said was that surely the U.K. would be better off in RCEP and the FTA deal with the EU than not in RCEP as well. They’d obviously not sign up to a deal that is all negative for them so therefore they would be.

So you’re completely unable to comprehend a ‘what if’ scenario no? You can’t debate a what if X were to happen over Y? On that basis I’m out of this one. It’s this inability that holds people back, how do you ever make a decision on anything not guaranteed?

yagan

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

I never said it would make up for any loss of the new EU/U.K. deal

What are you here to argue then in your account you created this month just to discuss Brexit?

HalfAndHalf

yagan wrote: »

What are you here to argue then in your account you created this month just to discuss Brexit?

Why do I have to be here to argue? Albeit this does seem to be a few peoples default position.

I just lurked but through it would be good to join up and debate the variety of options that could come to pass after Brexit.

Presumably your account started with a 1000 diverse posts already in existence yes?

I’ve just asked questions as I thought it would be nice to get peoples views on what they think ‘could’ happen moving forward and challenge the predominant negative ‘expert’ views 100% definite that the future is completely written off for the U.K.

Presumably based on your post and the way it’s written new users aren’t welcome no? Should I take the hint? Is it because I challenged some of your previous comments and offended you in doing so?

Nody

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

I never said it would make up for any loss of the new EU/U.K. deal, please done misrepresent what I’ve said to try poorly to make your already weak point.

All I said was that surely the U.K. would be better off in RCEP and the FTA deal with the EU than not in RCEP as well. They’d obviously not sign up to a deal that is all negative for them so therefore they would be.

So you’re completely unable to comprehend a ‘what if’ scenario no? You can’t debate a what if X were to happen over Y? On that basis I’m out of this one. It’s this inability that holds people back, how do you ever make a decision on anything not guaranteed?

You keep baning on RCEP as it's some magical bullet here; you are aware RCEP is an old fashioned raw material deal that relies on local chains importing raw materials and passing partial goods around. That's exactly what a FTA locally is good for; being on the other side of the world is exactly what you don't want to be. The RCEP as well specifically excludes any services in the deal which means UK can export raw materials (non existent), partially worked on goods in a supply chain (why ship it around the world?) and that's it. RCEP is pretty darn close to useless for UK and will provide pretty much sweet **** all in terms of trade.

Now, can we forget about RCEP and move the topic along? RCEP is a shiny no real value FTA that is only worth while for local supply chains.

Capt'n Midnight

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I want you to show how joining an Asian free trade agrrement will make up for the loss to the UK of leaving the EU. It is your argument that this would be the case.

If your only argument is that it *could* happen, then I would point out that there could be a tea kettle orbiting Jupiter right now for all we know. I have as much evidence to support that suggestion.

Brexit has already lost the UK £200Bn in revenue.

We know the Japan trade deal will be worth up to 0.07%

The projections for a US - UK trade deal are a boost of 0.07% and 0.16% over 15 years. BUT and there are a few buts including

However, it said a US deal would lead to a long-term 0.5% reduction in the output of the financial services sector, with resources "reallocated" to other areas.
...
The US has also specified it wants to be able to veto the UK's ability to strike deals with "non-market economies" meaning the likes of China

So joining an Asian free trade group may not be so easy. Also China is imposing 200% tariffs on Aussie wine despite trade deals.

How much will the new EU-UK deal reduce the UK economy over the next few years compared to remain ?





For balance




Is Galileo holding something that might look like a teapot and lid from a distance?

HalfAndHalf

Nody wrote: »

You keep baning on RCEP as it's some magical bullet here; you are aware RCEP is an old fashioned raw material deal that relies on local chains importing raw materials and passing partial goods around. That's exactly what a FTA locally is good for; being on the other side of the world is exactly what you don't want to be. The RCEP as well specifically excludes any services in the deal which means UK can export raw materials (non existent), partially worked on goods in a supply chain (why ship it around the world?) and that's it. RCEP is pretty darn close to useless for UK and will provide pretty much sweet **** all in terms of trade.

Now, can we forget about RCEP and move the topic along? RCEP is a shiny no real value FTA that is only worth while for local supply chains.

It’s an example! But fair enough, let’s hope the U.K. have 6 chickens to sell to someone in the future or they’ll go bust as a nation. I’ve obviously made a mistake in thinking there’s a debate to be had about post Brexit. Maybe this is the wrong section. Thanks anyway

yagan

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

I’ve just asked questions as I thought it would be nice to get peoples views on what they think ‘could’ happen moving forward and challenge the predominant negative ‘expert’ views 100% definite that the future is completely written off for the U.K.

I'll take you at your word that your here to looking for more than just negatives, but honestly I'm struggling to see any positives.

I guess one positive could be that British graduates will have a lot less competition in the domestic market.

Happy?

BlitzKrieg

positive (depending on your point of view) is that UKIP/Brexit party folk are sidelined again in British politics. Farage cant get elected nationally and the new council set up via this treaty doesnt have directly elected positions for his ilk to slide into. The only way he stays involved in politics is if Boris does something stupid and makes him a lord

Capt'n Midnight

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Well at least the Tories don’t need to bung them another billion to rethink their ‘principles’ this time.

True.

If the Tories whisper "border poll" the DUP will jump through hoops.

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

...

EU reform deal: What Cameron wanted and what he got

If you read that you will see Cameron got a lot of concessions, but those wanting to leave the EU didn't care.

Cameron got far too large and too many concessions. They would have introduced unequal rules for EU citizens.

It is imo the best of Brexit - or the only good thing about Brexit - that all these concession 'evaporated with the referendum vote in 2016.

Lars

yagan

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

positive (depending on your point of view) is that UKIP/Brexit party folk are sidelined again in British politics. Farage cant get elected nationally and the new council set up via this treaty doesnt have directly elected positions for his ilk to slide into. The only way he stays involved in politics is if Boris does something stupid and makes him a lord

I wouldn't write Farage off yet, there's still plenty of outrage to come and by the links posted earlier British fishermen are already turning on eachother over the deal.

There'll be plenty more "I didn't vote for this" moments ahead.

Strazdas

reslfj wrote: »

Cameron got far too large and too many concessions. They would have introduced unequal rules for EU citizens.

It is imo the best of Brexit - or the only good thing about Brexit - that all these concession 'evaporated with the referendum vote in 2016.

Lars

Right wing press spun it as he getting no concessions whatsoever and the EU sending him packing (!). Their version of the EU narrative was already out of control at that point.

An Ciarraioch

Falklands fish exports (which are largely landed at Vigo in Galicia) face tariffs of 6-18%:

https://en.mercopress.com/2020/12/28/falklands-fishing-companies-first-reaction-to-the-uk-eu-post-brexit-agreement

Capt'n Midnight

Bad news - Gibraltar is not covered by the deal


Good news Spain to allow free movement for Gibraltar workers after Brexit

“Cross-border workers who have registered their status before 1 January 2021 … will be able to cross by identifying themselves with a document prepared for this purpose,” she said.

Good/Bad news ? Gibraltar may join Schengen

peter kern

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Bad news - Gibraltar is not covered by the deal


Good news Spain to allow free movement for Gibraltar workers after Brexit


Good/Bad news ? Gibraltar may join Schengen

i think gibraltar voted 96 % againt brexit so i guess schengen would be good

Capt'n Midnight

peter kern wrote: »

i think gibraltar voted 96 % againt brexit so i guess schengen would be good

And voted 98% against leaving the UK and going to Spain.

Interesting times.

Dr Cockhound

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I suppose we should have accused the UK of being akin to the USSR or maybe threatening to starve them if we don't get what we wanted.

I'm sure that would have really offended you and you would have found it really disturbing.

Thank you for your opinion.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Off topic post deleted.

sam1986uk

Thousands of Spanish people depend on Gibraltar for work. Thousands cross the border every day.
Those pesky Brits are even providing employment for EU citizens on the med coast..

gaming_needs90

Regarding the whole fish thing and quotas; who actually enforces this at a micro level? What is stopping Jim the Galway fisherman catching X tonnes over what he is allowed to but selling it on anyway to various buyers?