Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

sam1986uk

sam1986uk wrote: »

I take the optimistic view that most of his customers in the EU will not leave him. He's obviously very reputable and they like the product. In my experience, people tend not to want to rock the boat.

I don't even know where to begin with that statement...

If it were true then we wouldn't have gotten as far as XIII in the thread count on Brexit.

sam1986uk wrote: »

At least you Irish have a vested interest in the downfall of this country..

Believe it or not, not everyone has a siege mentality when it comes to different nationalities. Some of us want our neighbours to be prosperous so that we can prosper too. You should try it sometime, you might find it eliminates the immature desire to use the word "cuck".

sam1986uk wrote: »

I've bookmarked this for the future.. I'll report back in 3 months on it.

I've a distinct feeling your account won't be around long enough to do that judging by your post standards.

Gerry T

sam1986uk wrote: »

Cba going round in circles on this.

I take the optimistic view that most of his customers in the EU will not leave him. He's obviously very reputable and they like the product. In my experience, people tend not to want to rock the boat.

I agree that people that have a great supplier will put up with some difficulties, paperwork, possibly even a 5% higher price if their business model can absorb it. I've seen that many times......BUT....what we are talking about is not a simple form, then you have to add into the equation that this goes through customs and that can cause delays, a live animal shipment I'm sure will get priority but how will that work with the ques of lorrys we witnessed last week, having priority but having 3000 trucks blocking your way to the ship doesn't bode well.

At the end of the day the buyer will protect his business and if a french supplier can step in and that removes the new risk from this UK supplier then there's a good chance the UK supplier will loose business.

Now consider any UK business that is feeding product into a EU just in time production line, or a UK supplier feeding into a UK JIT production line where that supplier is sourcing parts from the EU.

Removing tariffs is one barrier to trade but it's not the most problematic for a lot of business, delays, customs, uncertainty are all as important for these companies.

On the plus side the weakening of Sterling does help UK exports, for the immediate future.

BlitzKrieg

I think the issue with Peter's business may be much more specific then simple paperwork

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/illegal-eel-trade-smuggling

It has been illegal to move the critically endangered European eel, Anguilla anguilla, outside of the EU since 2010. And even inside Europe, where the transport of European eels and sale of their meat is legal, the trade is tightly regulated.

I imagine the matter of the UK's ability to import/export European eels in and out of the EU in relation to this regulation is very far down the list of issues negotiated in the treaty.

Not to mention the above article highlighting the booming smuggling trade.

Perhaps Peter will save himself by embracing that smuggling. Perhaps the sale of european eels to China will be a key piece of British negotiations with China for a good deal. That could even have been Peter's hope with the 'global market' comment.


also according to this

https://www.business-live.co.uk/ports-logistics/brexit-gloucestershire-eel-farm-warns-19315763

Glass Eels said it was also facing issues because it is no longer able to fly the eels out of Gloucestershire Airport as it is not a registered Animal Border Inspection Post.

Victoria said: ”This will mean flying them probably to Manchester and will cause major issues if we are able to export, as it will mean too much handling of the glass eels and the risk of them getting warm on runways, having delayed take off times and ultimately dying.

It's as much problems at home from Brexit causing issues as simply paperwork on the EU's side.


Quite frankly this is a lot more complicated then customers staying loyal and doing some paperwork.

sam1986uk

Gerry T wrote: »

I agree that people that have a great supplier will put up with some difficulties, paperwork, possibly even a 5% higher price if their business model can absorb it. I've seen that many times......BUT....what we are talking about is not a simple form, then you have to add into the equation that this goes through customs and that can cause delays, a live animal shipment I'm sure will get priority but how will that work with the ques of lorrys we witnessed last week, having priority but having 3000 trucks blocking your way to the ship doesn't bode well.

At the end of the day the buyer will protect his business and if a french supplier can step in and that removes the new risk from this UK supplier then there's a good chance the UK supplier will loose business.

Now consider any UK business that is feeding product into a EU just in time production line, or a UK supplier feeding into a UK JIT production line where that supplier is sourcing parts from the EU.

Removing tariffs is one barrier to trade but it's not the most problematic for a lot of business, delays, customs, uncertainty are all as important for these companies.

On the plus side the weakening of Sterling does help UK exports, for the immediate future.

I've been trying to become more familiar with the eel industry
This bloke flys his eels over to Europe in a plane.. you'd never have guessed they are a "precious resource" :eek:

BlitzKrieg

Oh adding more fuel to the fire

Turns out this is a problem that was going to potential hit close to home as well

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ireland-faces-the-very-real-threat-of-a-no-eel-brexit-1.3856130

And so to Lough Erne’s eels (s Anguilla anguilla), an endangered species whose annual 6,500km migration to the Sargasso Sea is one of the greatest in the animal kingdom. Unfortunately the migration has been interrupted by the building of a power station on the river Erne that the eels cannot pass on their way to the sea at Ballyshannon. The problem has been addressed with the seasonal deployment of lorries with aerated water tanks to transport trapped live eels around the turbines.

The protection of the eel is just one of 156 areas of North-South co-operation underpinned by joint obligations to EU regulations and to the Belfast Agreement – and a commitment to which is part of the EU-UK withdrawal agreement.

It seems eels were also threatened by the UK renaging on the withdrawal agreement.

This industry is proving to be such a perfect little case study for all the stupid sh*t brexit created.


EDIT: Also I kinda want to see the trucks full of eels

Sam, would you fill in lengthy forms to receive deliveries from Amazon Germany every week, or would you switch to Amazon UK which was faster and had no forms to deal with?

That's the guy's customers in Europe who likely don't deal with any forms for anything they purchase. Loyalty only goes so far and you describing this situation as just some forms whilst totally dismissing the man himself's own fears is frankly incredible. As if you know his situation better than he does.

fash

dresden8 wrote: »

At the moment this is Boris' deal. When Starmer votes for it it becomes his deal and he can STFU complaining about it. He really is useless.

Is that similar to the way that the war in Iraq became a Tory issue since they voted for it?

fash

54and56 wrote: »

I personally think the right political decision for Labour, particularly now the ERG have hitched their wagon to BoJo's deal, is to abstain but if Starmer had adopted that position it would have opened the door to the ERG voting against in order to achieve a "pure" WTO no deal Brexit and the consequences of that would be even greater for Labour.

This is senior hurling politics, not college canteen politics!!!

I agree. I think it's the most "honest" response. Sure you can abstain etc - but in reality that is game playing not leadership. Forget about game playing for a moment: if you have 2 alternatives which do you choose - no deal (in a pandemic) or Johnson's deal?
The politics is just decoration on top of the overlying reality.

Lumen

The facts of the eel story are that he expected to maintain the benefits of EU membership after leaving, and also gain unspecified benefits in trading globally, and has so far been disappointed. It would have been interesting to know how and when he expected these global trading benefits to materialize.

I listened to a couple of podcasts last night from Oh God What Now and Choppers Politics. The gulf in interpretations of a single set of facts (the deal) is astonishing, even on relatively straightforward issues like whether there will be more or less "red tape".

Chopper had on Bill Cash and Mark Francois. They are extremely proud of the outcome. There is zero chance that the ERG or broader Tories will vote against this deal, making Starmer's position practically irrelevant except for subsequent optics which is arguable both ways.

However, amongst all the expected sovereignty guff and WW1+2 similes, Bill Cash made clear that Brexit is now a forever trade war and any weak (i.e. non ERG backed) government will backslide into ever closer Union, whereas a suitably robust (i.e. ERG-backed) government will, amongst other things, regain full control of UK fishing waters when 5 years are up, and expect retaliation in the form of EU tariffs. This is an admission, finally, that the EU is the more powerful negotiating partner.

So there we have it. As some predicted, the EU won and the Brexiters claimed victory regardless, and this pattern is set to repeat ad infinitum, grinding on as a Tory-driven sideshow of British party politics, though I can't see it capturing the public attention; trade is boring.

loobylou

Peter also moved to his current premises in 2012 “supported” by... European Fisheries Fund. Almost laughable.

murphaph

sam1986uk wrote: »

project doom-mongering over hypothetical future events

Ok here's one from a model railway supplier I can't buy from anymore:

"EXPORT ORDERS
Regretably, for the forseeable future we are unable to take any export orders. This is because both Royal Mail and all couriers require us to provide information that we either do not have or will have to spend an inordinate amout of time to obtain. This applies to all exoprt orders and although probalby triggered by Brexit, applies to all exports, including those outside the EU. DPD have told us all road deliveries to Europe are cancelled due to action in France."

https://www.eileensemporium.com/

murphaph

The eels guy was no ordinary leave voter. He was interviewed alongside Gerard Batten by UKIP espousing the benefits of Brexit for his company. He just got greedy:

https://youtu.be/eUcc1msZtNw

breezy1985

Come across 4 or 5 online bicycle shops that are currently not shipping to Ireland because they are no longer shipping to the UK

breezy1985

murphaph wrote: »

The eels guy was no ordinary leave voter. He was interviewed alongside Gerard Batten by UKIP espousing the benefits of Brexit for his company. He just got greedy:

https://youtu.be/eUcc1msZtNw

I'm sure the reason no one is buying UK eels is because of the EU and not down to the fact that no one wants to eat eels outside of a few nostalgic old UK pensioners

paul71

sam1986uk wrote: »

I never said he's not worried.. he's obviously in despair and thinks his customers are going to go elsewhere because of some forms. Probably the reason Sky News chose to a piece on him. I bet they had to phone around.

I'm more interested in objective facts.. unlike the hateful tossers on social media sneering at this guy.. More often than not they have an EU flag as their profile pic..

Does anyone here have an EU flag as their profile photo on facebook? There's gotta be one

Why do you have a sudden interest in objective facts? They have not bothered you before.

You made false statements several pages back on this tread about Polish people going to the UK for welfare. People gave you facts which disproved your falsehoods and asked you to back up your statements, you came back waving your arms about, with more Daily mail headliners and no facts.

When asked again to back up the false statements you blightly moved on to another topic and arm waving exercise, all whilst completely ignoring the fact you had been shot down on your previous failed attempt at engaging in any kind of factual debate.

BluePlanet

breezy1985 wrote: »

Come across 4 or 5 online bicycle shops that are currently not shipping to Ireland because they are no longer shipping to the UK

What shops? Name and shame.

AutoTuning

BluePlanet wrote: »

What shops? Name and shame.

One or two continental companies may actually be uninformed enough to assume Ireland has left the EU, thinking it is the U.K It’s worth contacting them and asking for explanation.

Some companies also may not be shipping due to logistics disruption in England due to the ports issues caused by the outbreak of a new strain of COVID. There were a lot of cancellations of freight which have had knock on impacts on shipping to Ireland.

I have a feeling we may have teething issues with companies in “U.K. & Ireland” mode.

I remember having to explain a few times over the years that the U.K. is not “a broader term for Britain and Ireland”. A lot of people can be very confused by the U.K. as it uses so many terms to define itself either as individual historical countries, rather than a different term like “state” so, that then tends to lead to confusion about what Ireland is even though we (other than Northern Ireland) aren’t part of the U.K.

I mean half the time people in the U.K. confuse those definitions. If you use a term like “the national news” you could be talking about U.K. wide or just Scotland. Team GB is used to describe the U.K. Olympic team, but if you are to define it tightly that term excludes Northern Ireland and it ought really be Team U.K. Then you’ve the U.K. playing sports sometimes as one country but often as four countries and Ireland plays as one country which can randomly include or exclude Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K. Even for a local it’s often baffling! In England they often don’t seem to even know that Ireland is a different country.

But if you think about it, how many Irish people will confuse the fact that Norway isn’t in the EU? I know people who’ve had issues with even Irish universities assuming Norway was an EU member...

I suspect we are going to have to spend a lot of time explaining that we aren’t in the U.K. to various companies who’ve made errors.

There also needs to be some serious education effort made by the state towards the likes of couriers and logistics companies to ensure they don’t cause unnecessary screw ups.

ancapailldorcha

murphaph wrote: »

The eels guy was no ordinary leave voter. He was interviewed alongside Gerard Batten by UKIP espousing the benefits of Brexit for his company. He just got greedy:

https://youtu.be/eUcc1msZtNw

I was literally typing in a post with this link. Well done.

breezy1985 wrote: »

I'm sure the reason no one is buying UK eels is because of the EU and not down to the fact that no one wants to eat eels outside of a few nostalgic old UK pensioners

I don't know, honestly but voting to put up barriers and bureaucracy between you and your customers and then whinge about it just stinks of the ignorance we all knew was prevalent and just substantiates the point that logically, the arguments for trade and sovereignty were just covers for despising the EU and in some cases xenophobia. Obviously not everyone of course.

I have no sympathy. They voted for Brexit and then more right-wing variants of the Tory party. They knew what they were voting for.

Jizique

paul71 wrote: »

Why do you have a sudden interest in objective facts? They have not bothered you before.

You made false statements several pages back on this tread about Polish people going to the UK for welfare. People gave you facts which disproved your falsehoods and asked you to back up your statements, you came back waving your arms about, with more Daily mail headliners and no facts.

When asked again to back up the false statements you blightly moved on to another topic and arm waving exercise, all whilst completely ignoring the fact you had been shot down on your previous failed attempt at engaging in any kind of factual debate.

Will there be an exodus of Poles and other Eastern Europeans in the next few weeks and months?
A significant part of the vote was based on a dislike of immigrants and a “send them back” mentality; Patel has obviously introduced me restrictions on FoM with salary levels etc and presumably welfare will be more challenging for many who have lost jobs.
Should we expect an increase on attacks on foreigners?

CelticRambler

Jizique wrote: »

Will there be an exodus of Poles and other Eastern Europeans in the next few weeks and months?

Unlikely that it'll be an "exodus" as those who were in a position to move quickly have already left; and a significant number of Eastern Europeans in the UK came as seasonal workers ... until they stopped coming. The next phase will be a slower migration of whole family units to/back to the EU.

The government stats on the subject show that something like 150-200k EU migrants have been replaced by about 200k BAMEs over the last two years.

peter kern

AutoTuning wrote: »

One or two continental companies may actually be uninformed enough to assume Ireland has left the EU, thinking it is the U.K It’s worth contacting them and asking for explanation.

Some companies also may not be shipping due to logistics disruption in England due to the ports issues caused by the outbreak of a new strain of COVID. There were a lot of cancellations of freight which have had knock on impacts on shipping to Ireland.

I have a feeling we may have teething issues with companies in “U.K. & Ireland” mode.

I remember having to explain a few times over the years that the U.K. is not “a broader term for Britain and Ireland”. A lot of people can be very confused by the U.K. as it uses so many terms to define itself either as individual historical countries, rather than a different term like “state” so, that then tends to lead to confusion about what Ireland is even though we (other than Northern Ireland) aren’t part of the U.K.

I mean half the time people in the U.K. confuse those definitions. If you use a term like “the national news” you could be talking about U.K. wide or just Scotland. Team GB is used to describe the U.K. Olympic team, but if you are to define it tightly that term excludes Northern Ireland and it ought really be Team U.K. Then you’ve the U.K. playing sports sometimes as one country but often as four countries and Ireland plays as one country which can randomly include or exclude Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K. Even for a local it’s often baffling! In England they often don’t seem to even know that Ireland is a different country.

But if you think about it, how many Irish people will confuse the fact that Norway isn’t in the EU? I know people who’ve had issues with even Irish universities assuming Norway was an EU member...

I suspect we are going to have to spend a lot of time explaining that we aren’t in the U.K. to various companies who’ve made errors.

There also needs to be some serious education effort made by the state towards the likes of couriers and logistics companies to ensure they don’t cause unnecessary screw ups.

most land shippments to ireland go through uk so i guess this is where the issue is. I have no idea which retailers the poster refers to but most are aware what uk and what ire is as they charge a different uk and ireland vat when you order so they know the difference.

breezy1985

BluePlanet wrote: »

What shops? Name and shame.

Don't know what you mean by shame as it's not their fault but there's a thread about if your interested

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058143373/1

Problem for a lot of these companies is shipping to Ireland alone is not worth it given the niche market so all our orders go through the UK

paul71

Jizique wrote: »

Will there be an exodus of Poles and other Eastern Europeans in the next few weeks and months?
A significant part of the vote was based on a dislike of immigrants and a “send them back” mentality; Patel has obviously introduced me restrictions on FoM with salary levels etc and presumably welfare will be more challenging for many who have lost jobs.
Should we expect an increase on attacks on foreigners?

I don't think so, many of the Polish, Czechs, Germans, French, Italians, Spainish, Lithuanians who are there have been there for years, have children born there, are married to UK nationals. There won't be a mass exodus just a normal rate of movement back home or to other EU countries but not to be replaced by new incomers (which will stifle efficiency and competition in the workforce).

I think the "attacks on foriegners" is overplayed, there are ancedotal claims of that but like the stories of anti-Irish sentiment in the 1970s it was mostly just talk with little hard evidence of real violence.

Professor Moriarty

paul71 wrote: »

I don't think so, many of the Polish, Czechs, Germans, French, Italians, Spainish, Lithuanians who are there have been there for years, have children born there, are married to UK nationals. There won't be a mass exodus just a normal rate of movement back home or to other EU countries but not to be replaced by new incomers (which will stifle efficiency and competition in the workforce).

I think the "attacks on foriegners" is overplayed, there are ancedotal claims of that but like the stories of anti-Irish sentiment in the 1970s it was mostly just talk with little hard evidence of real violence.

I experienced anti-Irish racism in England in the late 90s/early 00s. It was in the form of verbal attacks including mocking and screaming. Each time, other English people intervened.

yagan

paul71 wrote: »

I think the "attacks on foriegners" is overplayed, there are ancedotal claims of that but like the stories of anti-Irish sentiment in the 1970s it was mostly just talk with little hard evidence of real violence.

I was living in England for a few years after the Brexit vote and initially there wasn't any issues, a lot of the English in our social sphere assumed we had voted for Brexit too; many weren't even aware we didn't use GBP.

However when the backstop became an issue I started finding myself getting weird vibes. English friends started asking me to explain what the story with Northern Ireland was, which I usually diplomatically sidestepped by saying as an outsider I wasn't up on UK politics, and then change the subject.

What was interesting though was our social circle was half EU, half English, and whenever there weren't any English about everyone wanted to discuss Brexit and their options. The minute an English person showed up everyone would without prompting change the subject. I'd say individually most EU citizens in England hear things said by English people that make them reticent about openly discussing Brexit.

We left last year and of our social circle nearly all our EU friends left too.

The only people I saw who derived pleasure from slagging off English about Brexit were Scottish friends!

Dr Cockhound

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I experienced anti-Irish racism in England in the late 90s/early 00s. It was in the form of verbal attacks including mocking and screaming. Each time, other English people intervened.

Professor, I'm genuinely sorry that you experienced those attacks as would be, I'm confident, the vast majority of British people.
Sadly, every society has its minority of bigoted imbeciles but that is in no way, any excuse for that which you experienced.

yagan

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I experienced anti-Irish racism in England in the late 90s/early 00s. It was in the form of verbal attacks including mocking and screaming. Each time, other English people intervened.

There were a pubs near where I was living in England that flew paratrooper flags around poppy season, obviously not places for an Irish person to go for the craic.

breezy1985

yagan wrote: »

I was living in England for a few years after the Brexit vote and initially there wasn't any issues, a lot of the English in our social sphere assumed we had voted for Brexit too; many weren't even aware we didn't use GBP.

However when the backstop became an issue I started finding myself getting weird vibes. English friends started asking me to explain what the story with Northern Ireland was, which I usually diplomatically sidestepped by saying as an outsider I wasn't up on UK politics, and then change the subject.

What was interesting though was our social circle was half EU, half English, and whenever there weren't any English about everyone wanted to discuss Brexit and their options. The minute an English person showed up everyone would without prompting change the subject. I'd say individually most EU citizens in England hear things said by English people that make them reticent about openly discussing Brexit.

We left last year and of our social circle nearly all our EU friends left too.

The only people I saw who derived pleasure from slagging off English about Brexit were Scottish friends!

The DUP coalition was the first time most of my English friends became aware that NI existed before that I would often have people assume that people like me from the Republic were British and used Sterling or just as common people assumed my NI friends were foreigners who used Euros.

I even once had to step in and help a woman when neither herself or the bank clerk could remember whether it was Dublin or Belfast that used Sterling. They were both at least aware that it was one or the other.

Much like yourself the vast majority of my EU friends had left London since the vote and I was the last to go in March

Dr Cockhound

yagan wrote: »

There were a pubs near where I was living in England that flew paratrooper flags around poppy season, obviously not places for an Irish person to go for the craic.

To be fair, most right thinking locals would avoid such places as well. There's also an unspoken rule of peaceful, social drinking that any pub with a flat roof is to be avoided.
Out of curiosity Yagan, whereabouts where you living at the time?

Shelga

Mark Francois has resurfaced in the HoC. How I haven’t missed him.