Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

RTE report 6 trucks sent back at Holyhead

BBC report the first ferry to arrive in Dublin from Holyhead had about 12 lorries on board.

Low numbers but that % will need to drop .

1 driver in 100 arriving with incorrect paperwork will delay the other 99.

weemcd

CelticRambler wrote: »

Interesting bit of spin there on the BBC version - they report that the 12 lorries arriving cleared customs without any problems. Well ... duh! :rolleyes: If the problem loads were turned back at Holyhead before they even got on board, you'd expect the those that did travel had their paperwork in order! But hey, a win is a win, right? :pac:

I must say, I do feel a bit sorry for those unfortunate reporters whose editors told them they'd be spending New Year's Eve/Morning standing in a ferry port watching trucks drive onto and off a boat!

Especially if it was somewhere like Larne...

Professor Moriarty

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Deleted post.

Well what happens in Britain will affect us and our economy. It's not how it should be but it's how it is. And so, this first year of Brexit will be important for us and our economy in particular.

Besides which, I see this Tory party and its brexiteering to be infinitely more fun to watch than Coronation Street or Eastenders. The Brexiteer plot is less predictable and the acting is better.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well what happens in Britain will affect us and our economy. It's not how it should be but it's how it is. And so, this first year of Brexit will be important for us and our economy in particular.

Besides which, I see this Tory party and its brexiteering to be infinitely more fun to watch than Coronation Street or Eastenders. The Brexiteer plot is less predictable and the acting is better.

Hardly - the acting is very one dimensional with the Victorian villain (Mogg), the foolish village idiot (Francois) and the clownish 'hero'. All deliver predictable lines you would expect to hear at a panto. [Oh no he's not - Oh yes he is!]

Mind you, the outcome is as predictable as a whodunit drama. Just read back on these threads and see all the predictions that have been correct.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Posts by threadbanned user and responses deleted. Apologies for the inconvenience.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Hardly - the acting is very one dimensional with the Victorian villain (Mogg), the foolish village idiot (Francois) and the clownish 'hero'. All deliver predictable lines you would expect to hear at a panto. [Oh no he's not - Oh yes he is!]

Mind you, the outcome is as predictable as a whodunit drama. Just read back on these threads and see all the predictions that have been correct.

My particular focus will be on Johnson, his cabinet and the parliamentary party. They're welded to a hard Brexit now. So when realities start kicking in, I'm looking forward to seeing how they react. Predictably, it will be to blame the EU (but that has an expiry date). I'm looking forward to their populist and nationalistic rhetoric. And their lies. And their faux outrage. Some great acting to be done.

Christy42

peter kern wrote: »

i would think this is commnent resembles the 350 millions a week NHS bus math ...
those 7 billion that is being talked of will all stay entirely in the GB economy so thats certainly not a pure loss.i have no idea how much it will cost effectively but iam sure its not a pure loss.

It's a pretty big loss. There is a reason the government doesn't just throw money at nurses and teachers which would also put the money back into the economy. Or hire those same 50k as ditch diggers. It isn't pure loss since some will come back in taxes but it is a big hit that can't now go into other areas.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

My particular focus will be on Johnson, his cabinet and the parliamentary party. They're welded to a hard Brexit now. So when realities start kicking in, I'm looking forward to seeing how they react. Predictably, it will be to blame the EU (but that has an expiry date). I'm looking forward to their populist and nationalistic rhetoric. And their lies. And their faux outrage. Some great acting to be done.

It strikes me that the Tories and their right wing press pals have created a big problem for themselves. They have completely exorcised the EU and Europe from all aspects of British life - to the point where all of the bad stuff that happens from now on can only possibly be blamed on Westminster.

If anything, they have overdone the 'We are free, we are independent, we are sovereign' stuff. They are nearly forgetting this will leave themselves 100% in the firing line.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

It strikes me that the Tories and their right wing press pals have created a big problem for themselves. They have completely exorcised the EU and Europe from all aspects of British life - to the point where all of the bad stuff that happens from now on can only possibly be blamed on Westminster.

If anything, they have overdone the 'We are free, we are independent, we are sovereign' stuff. They are nearly forgetting this will leave themselves 100% in the firing line.

I think they'll get this year out of it. They'll spend their time being outraged and 'battling for Britain' as they wrangle with the EU over the implementation of the agreement and the small print. Once that settles, they'll be left with the shambles that the deal is for Britain. The one they negotiated and pushed through in a rush.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think they'll get this year out of it. They'll spend their time being outraged and 'battling for Britain' as they wrangle with the EU over the implementation of the agreement and the small print. Once that settles, they'll be left with the shambles that the deal is for Britain. The one they negotiated and pushed through in a rush.

I notice that the Brexit disciples in the Daily Mail comments have all bought into the sovereignty stuff. So they are going to have to perform some mental gymnastics not to blame their hero Johnson if things start getting dicey in the next year.

Also, it will be very hard for the press to control the narrative if it becomes clear that Brexit UK is lagging behind the EU.

PokeHerKing

Strazdas wrote: »

I notice that the Brexit disciples in the Daily Mail comments have all bought into the sovereignty stuff. So they are going to have to perform some mental gymnastics not to blame their hero Johnson if things start getting dicey in the next year.

Also, it will be very hard for the press to control the narrative if it becomes clear that Brexit UK is lagging behind the EU.

I think by the time Brexits true economic fallout is tangible, enough time will have passed that nobody wil be able to find anyone who voted for it.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

I notice that the Brexit disciples in the Daily Mail comments have all bought into the sovereignty stuff. So they are going to have to perform some mental gymnastics not to blame their hero Johnson if things start getting dicey in the next year.

Also, it will be very hard for the press to control the narrative if it becomes clear that Brexit UK is lagging behind the EU.

If past behaviour is a predictor of future behaviour, the Tory press will lie and ignore any negative comparisons. Unfortunately, I think a signification portion of the British public is now mesmerised by populism and will just believe harder even if presented with facts. Essentially, they will take a financial hit to regain sovereignty - whatever 'sovereignty' means for them.

AutoTuning

Watch now as the outrage about the EU denying Britons access to various things kicks off. I've already seen a few utter rants on social media by British emigrants who've had to apply for residency status in Spain. They're not blaming Brexit. Often they're blaming the EU or the country they now have to apply to.

Also domestically you can expect a few months of jingoistic flag waving articles, but you can also be sure if there are delays at ports or so on it will be "the French take revenge on good old plucky British truckers:"

However, those tabloids always have someone to target. So if they go into post brexit mode it's very likely they could end up driving agendas in terms of class war against social welfare recipients. It's almost inevitable they'll continue to bang the anti immigration drum and if things get economically harder both due to COVID issues and Brexit that may well just get worse and worse.

The other issue is that Brexit economic negatives are very likely to be buried in COVID news. If there aren't sunlit uplands, it'll be COVID, not brexit.

Professor Moriarty

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I think by the time Brexits true economic fallout is tangible, enough time will have passed that nobody wil be able to find anyone who voted for it.

The UK government itself predicts a decrease in economic output by 4% after 15 years due to this particular Brexit deal.

Strazdas

AutoTuning wrote: »

Watch now as the outrage about the EU denying Britons access to various things kicks off. I've already seen a few utter rants on social media by British emigrants who've had to apply for residency status in Spain. They're not blaming Brexit. Often they're blaming the EU or the country they now have to apply to.

Also domestically you can expect a few months of jingoistic flag waving articles, but you can also be sure if there are delays at ports or so on it will be "the French take revenge on good old plucky British truckers:"

However, those tabloids always have someone to target. So if they go into post brexit mode it's very likely they could end up driving agendas in terms of class war against social welfare recipients. It's almost inevitable they'll continue to bang the anti immigration drum and if things get economically harder both due to COVID issues and Brexit that may well just get worse and worse.

The other issue is that Brexit economic negatives are very likely to be buried in COVID news. If there aren't sunlit uplands, it'll be COVID, not brexit.

Indeed, it's nearly forgotten that before Cameron's referendum came along, the tabloids were waging war on "benefits scroungers", almost on a daily basis.

tubercolossus

Isn't the dole in the UK about €95 a week, compared to €200 here? You'd want to be mad to 'scrounge' that.

Capt'n Midnight

FDI is still a big concern. The IDA will still be competing with the UK but the rules have changed.

The UK will still be a major trading partner due to proximity but it remains to be seen how much trade will switch to other EU countries. It may be more economic to bring production back in the case of seed potatoes and flour milling.


The Department of Foreign Affairs have been busy for years and we now have a seat on the UN Security Council.




The US UK trade deal could be very important here. Right now Scottish Whisky has a 30% higher tariff than Irish Whiskey.
https://sluggerotoole.com/2020/12/31/an-a-z-of-whats-to-come-in-2021/

Angela Merkel stands down as German Chancellor when her term ends in September 2021
...
bookies are giving 11/8 odds on Biden making Ireland his first foreign visit in 2021.
...
‘Census Day’ will be on 21st March 2021 (Northern Ireland)
...
elections to the Scottish Parliament in May
...
2 runoff elections for the Senate in Georgia that take place in January.

If the Democrats win both seats the Senate would be split 50-50 with the Vice President Kamala Harris having the casting vote for any legislative decisions.
...
With Labour expected to lose some ground, and the Tories being seen as too unpalatable for Plaid there is a strong possibility that a Lab-Plaid coalition could emerge from the May poll (Welsh Senedd Elections)

And since we are in the EU there's also the EU wide consequences.
EU and EEA elections this year may show what influence Brexit has had.

2021 Portuguese presidential election 24 January 2021
2021 Spain: Catalan regional election 14 February 2021
2021 Dutch general election 17 March 2021
2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election 28 March 2021
2021 United Kingdom local elections 6 May 2021
2021 London Assembly election 6 May 2021
2021 Senedd Cymru election 6 May 2021
2021 Scottish Parliament election 6 May 2021
2021 Cypriot legislative election 23 May 2021
2021 Norwegian parliamentary election 13 September 2021
2021 Icelandic parliamentary election 25 September 2021
2021 German federal election 26 September 2021
2021 Czech legislative election 8-9 October 2021
2021 Bulgarian presidential election October or November 2021


And there's still the effect of Brexit on a possible reunification or Scotland going independent.

upupup

A big brexit story breaking today!
One of the rewards of brexit is that from today "The tampon tax" has been abolished.
This will save the average woman about £40 over her lifetime and may change the lives of many.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/tampon-tax-scrapped-new-years-19543576

Capt'n Midnight

AutoTuning wrote: »

However, those tabloids always have someone to target. So if they go into post brexit mode it's very likely they could end up driving agendas in terms of class war against social welfare recipients. It's almost inevitable they'll continue to bang the anti immigration drum and if things get economically harder both due to COVID issues and Brexit that may well just get worse and worse.

The other issue is that Brexit economic negatives are very likely to be buried in COVID news. If there aren't sunlit uplands, it'll be COVID, not brexit.

It's the old chestnut of why would anyone want to be the manager of England's national football team ? The tabloids will rip you to shreds at the first sign of weakness.

But there is still a lot of untangling and plenty of scope of blaming the EU for one sided enforcement or confusion despite all the time spent on the WA and it's appendices. "I know my rights" And the UK aren't fully rolling out import controls till the middle of the year. There'll be a certain amount of drip-drip bad news.

And lots of spin. Like the Lobsters for Tristan da Cunha having 0% EU tariffs.

Leroy42

upupup wrote: »

A big brexit story breaking today!
One of the rewards of brexit is that from today "The tampon tax" has been abolished.
This will save the average woman about £40 over her lifetime and may change the lives of many.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/tampon-tax-scrapped-new-years-19543576

TBH, I never understood this? Why are the EU concerned about what rate tampons are charged VAT on? Why would the EU care if they were at 0%?

breezy1985

Leroy42 wrote: »

TBH, I never understood this? Why are the EU concerned about what rate tampons are charged VAT on? Why would the EU care if they were at 0%?

The law isnt about tampons specifically its a broad law about the minimum levels of tax you can apply on items

breezy1985

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/01/residents-furious-brexit-lorry-park-kent-village

Day 1 and already people are being "BETRAYED"

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

TBH, I never understood this? Why are the EU concerned about what rate tampons are charged VAT on? Why would the EU care if they were at 0%?

VAT is an important tax for the EU. There are some exceptions to zero rated goods and services, and some anomalies.

For example, the toll over the East Link bridge is zero rated because it is Gov owned, but not on the toll over Drogheda bridge because it is not Gov owned.

European VAT is levied at one of three rates - zero, low rate, and high rate. Each member state decides the actual taxes within limits. However, the zero rate is not allowed except for certain categories of goods - eg food. Bread is zero rated but cakes are not.

A percentage of VAT goes to the EU budget, so that might explain their interest in it.

Happy4all

upupup wrote: »

A big brexit story breaking today!
One of the rewards of brexit is that from today "The tampon tax" has been abolished.
This will save the average woman about £40 over her lifetime and may change the lives of many.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/tampon-tax-scrapped-new-years-19543576

The zero VAT rate applies in Ireland for years. How was that possible for Ireland if it was something the EU blocked for the UK?

Capt'n Midnight

upupup wrote: »

A big brexit story breaking today!
One of the rewards of brexit is that from today "The tampon tax" has been abolished.
This will save the average woman about £40 over her lifetime and may change the lives of many.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/tampon-tax-scrapped-new-years-19543576

And the VAT rate here in Ireland is ?

IIRC for tax purposes here they are considered clothing.

Happy4all wrote: »

The zero VAT rate applies in Ireland for years. How was that possible for Ireland if it was something the EU blocked for the UK?

Grandfathered in before EU membership but being creative with rules could have solved a lot "Blue Passport" issues. (the printing abroad aspect, not the colour because the UK always had complete control of that)

It's one of the things they could have changed by staying in the EU as other countries are reducing the VAT on the basis of gender discrimination.

Thargor

peter kern wrote: »

i would think this is commnent resembles the 350 millions a week NHS bus math ...
those 7 billion that is being talked of will all stay entirely in the GB economy so thats certainly not a pure loss.i have no idea how much it will cost effectively but iam sure its not a pure loss.

Thats pure broken window fallacy, why doesnt every government employ 50,000 more people to shuffle unnecessary papers around the place then if its not a giant waste of money?

An Ciarraioch

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

FDI is still a big concern. The IDA will still be competing with the UK but the rules have changed.

The UK will still be a major trading partner due to proximity but it remains to be seen how much trade will switch to other EU countries. It may be more economic to bring production back in the case of seed potatoes and flour milling.


The Department of Foreign Affairs have been busy for years and we now have a seat on the UN Security Council.




The US UK trade deal could be very important here. Right now Scottish Whisky has a 30% higher tariff than Irish Whiskey.
https://sluggerotoole.com/2020/12/31/an-a-z-of-whats-to-come-in-2021/
And since we are in the EU there's also the EU wide consequences.
EU and EEA elections this year may show what influence Brexit has had.

2021 Portuguese presidential election 24 January 2021
2021 Spain: Catalan regional election 14 February 2021
2021 Dutch general election 17 March 2021
2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election 28 March 2021
2021 United Kingdom local elections 6 May 2021
2021 London Assembly election 6 May 2021
2021 Senedd Cymru election 6 May 2021
2021 Scottish Parliament election 6 May 2021
2021 Cypriot legislative election 23 May 2021
2021 Norwegian parliamentary election 13 September 2021
2021 Icelandic parliamentary election 25 September 2021
2021 German federal election 26 September 2021
2021 Czech legislative election 8-9 October 2021
2021 Bulgarian presidential election October or November 2021


And there's still the effect of Brexit on a possible reunification or Scotland going independent.

The Dutch election will probably be the most telling, given Wilders' party has generally either finished second or close to that mark over the last decade, so any shift in either direction will be noticeable.

Sam Russell

Thargor wrote: »

That's pure broken window fallacy, why doesn't every government employ 50,000 more people to shuffle unnecessary papers around the place then if its not a giant waste of money?

It is not just a loss of productivity for those 50,000 customs guys but also a loss of productivity for the guys that create the documents that those customs guys will inspect, plus the time wasted by the truck drivers while they wait for the customs guys do their worst - inspecting paperwork and inspecting goods.

So about 100,000 lost productive jobs. All negative for the economy.

An Ciarraioch

It seems hauliers have already elected to bypass the landbridge, with the two Rosslare-Dunkirk ferries tomorrow, along with the reverse journey the same day, fully booked out:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/first-day-of-sailings-between-rosslare-and-dunkirk-booked-out-1.4448217

AutoTuning

You'd be mad not to if you didn't need to go to the UK. There's significant risk or distribution at English ports or their continental counterparts.

I suspect as those direct routes get more established and the logistic companies adjust they'll just become totally normal and lots of a big drama than was imagined here.

In reality it gives us access to often smaller, but faster ports and into potentially less congested parts of France.

Ireland has a few advantages by just being relatively small and nimble. We’ll likely just get on with working around it.

There’s also a multi billion euro market here for things like groceries and that’s now somewhat up for grabs. There’s a slightly deluded view amongst the British media and it’s bought into here to a degree that Ireland is lucky to be granted access to the U.K. supply chains at all. The reality is that it’s a small but significant market in Europe and nobody is going to turn their nose up at potentially billions of market opportunity to replace lazy U.K. suppliers who have a government that’s cutting them off from a neighbouring market.

Look at somewhere like Iceland. It’s extremely remote and has a tiny population (half the size of County Cork) yet it has a totally normal and thriving retail sector that works just like anywhere else in the EEA/EU and customs Union.

We aren’t going to have that many issues in my view.