Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

joeysoap

kowloon wrote: »

Yes, medicines are generally cheaper in Spain but in the UK, at least in my case, everything was free under the NHS. But Spain is a destination for surgery tourists.

Medicines are certainly cheaper in Spain and particularly Portugal compared with here but I think health is completely free in UK. I have a friend who has a heart condition who lives in NI and he has been told if he needs an operation that it will be in Dublin and he will not be in a queue.

Strazdas

dogbert27 wrote: »

This would be an interesting one from a Revenue point of view. Was she still tax resident in England that whole time?

Would she have been able to collect social welfare in England while working cash in hand in Spain?

Could start opening a big can of worms for a lot of people.

This is the problem with smashing up a 50 year status quo. There was always going to be thousands of unforeseen knock on effects from the 'Brexit revolution'.

I think these guys are certifiable for what they have done to their own country.

54and56

dogbert27 wrote: »

Could be that her life in Spain is over and she has to return to Brexitland.

I'm a member of a Brits in Spain group on Facebook due to a British friend who has properties in Spain being a member and he recommended I join as it can be a good source of info if (like me) you are thinking of possibly buying a gaff there to retire or semi retire to in due course. My long term preference is the Basque region of SW France but I've been reading the posts from Brits in Spain with growing interest over the last few months and there's a huge number of what's commonly referred to as "off the radar" Brits retired in Spain living off UK pensions. With freedom of movement between UK and Spain despite the 90 days in 180 being the rule for visiting Schengen countries it was never enforced so they could come and go as they liked, buy property, do a bit of cash in hand / grey market type work and never ever officially enter the Spanish tax/welfare system, essentially appearing to be temporary holiday visitors regardless of how many years they were there and accessing healthcare via the EU EHIC cards.

Now with the 90/180 rule being enforced and passports being stamped in and out etc they are (or will be from March 31st) trapped or forced to move back to the uk for 90 days in every 180 days. Those that want to remain will have to register, meet minimum income thresholds (which the UK state pension won't meet), have proof of private medical insurance and pay tax etc which is a serious shock to their system.

My friend owns a few properties in Spain which he rents out, is tax registered and a Spanish resident etc so 100% legal but most of his pals aren't and he expects there to be a flood of properties coming on the market as those who can't or won't register for Spanish resident status are forced to move back to the UK and that overhang of properties will seriously depress prices in areas traditionally popular with Brits.

Taking back control eh

amacca

54and56 wrote: »

I'm a member of a Brits in Spain group on Facebook due to a British friend who has properties in Spain being a member and he recommended I join as it can be a good source of info if (like me) you are thinking of possibly buying a gaff there to retire or semi retire to in due course. My long term preference is the Basque region of SW France but I've been reading the posts from Brits in Spain with growing interest over the last few months and there's a huge number of what's commonly referred to as "off the radar" Brits retired in Spain living off UK pensions. With freedom of movement between UK and Spain despite the 90 days in 180 being the rule for visiting Schengen countries it was never enforced so they could come and go as they liked, buy property, do a bit of cash in hand / grey market type work and never ever officially enter the Spanish tax/welfare system, essentially appearing to be temporary holiday visitors regardless of how many years they were there and accessing healthcare via the EU EHIC cards.

Now with the 90/180 rule being enforced and passports being stamped in and out etc they are (or will be from March 31st) trapped or forced to move back to the uk for 90 days in every 180 days. Those that want to remain will have to register, meet minimum income thresholds (which the UK state pension won't meet), have proof of private medical insurance and pay tax etc which is a serious shock to their system.

My friend owns a few properties in Spain which he rents out, is tax registered and a Spanish resident etc so 100% legal but most of his pals aren't and he expects there to be a flood of properties coming on the market as those who can't or won't register for Spanish resident status are forced to move back to the UK and that overhang of properties will seriously depress prices in areas traditionally popular with Brits.

Taking back control eh

Roughly whereabouts in Spain do you mind me asking?

Wouldn't mind a cheap villa with a pool:pac:

kowloon

Seems like a lot of people would have to be sent packing to have a serious effect on house prices. Are there really that many? Would the Spanish really enforce things so strictly or will they create a pathway out of it to prevent a mini-slump in the regions affected.

yagan

kowloon wrote: »

Seems like a lot of people would have to be sent packing to have a serious effect on house prices. Are there really that many? Would the Spanish really enforce things so strictly or will they create a pathway out of it to prevent a mini-slump in the regions affected.

Unless individuals have €500.000 for a golden investor visa I can't see the Spanish bothering retaining them.

Besides the East Europeans are already starting to take their place.

Leroy42

kowloon wrote: »

Seems like a lot of people would have to be sent packing to have a serious effect on house prices. Are there really that many? Would the Spanish really enforce things so strictly or will they create a pathway out of it to prevent a mini-slump in the regions affected.

It wouldn't take that many to impact of particular areas. And the English do tend to gravitate towards the same areas. Also, some developments were targeted almost exclusively at these type of people, so if you have a number of them sell up, or simply not live there for extended periods, it could have significant impacts on the local market.

54and56

amacca wrote: »

Roughly whereabouts in Spain do you mind me asking?

Wouldn't mind a cheap villa with a pool:pac:

He's in Malaga but large chunks all along the Costa Del Sol will be affected given its popularity with Brits.

The whole "Ex Pat" (hate that term) scene is the polar opposite of what I'd be looking for but if there were serious bargains to be had, due to forced sellers in a hurry needing money to finance a new gaff back in the UK, I'd consider specific opportunities particularly if one of the side effects would be a rebalancing of the population in the area to a lower percentage of Brits, more Spanish and more EU nationals e.g. Germans, Dutch etc.

Would still prefer NW Spain or SW France mind!!

Snickers Man

breezy1985 wrote: »

Given that he was a vocal Brexit supporter is there any word of Wetherspoons pulling out of Ireland ?

No such luck!

James Dyson is a vocal supporter of Brexit; he's moved his manufacturing to Singapore
Jacob Rees-Mogg is a vocal supporter of Brexit; he shifted a fair hunk of his funds to Dublin to remain within the EU.
Ineos owner Jim Ratcliffe is a vocal supporter of Brexit; he abandoned a promise to build his new jeep (based on a design purchased from Land Rover) in Wales and instead has taken over a former Mercedes plant in France.

Business is business; Brexit is only for other people!

54and56

kowloon wrote: »

Seems like a lot of people would have to be sent packing to have a serious effect on house prices. Are there really that many? Would the Spanish really enforce things so strictly or will they create a pathway out of it to prevent a mini-slump in the regions affected.

The problem this particular group has is that the local economies really won't miss them that much. It's potentially an unfair broad brush statement but a lot of that particular cohort are minding their pennies and stretching limited pensions as far as they can which is fine and in many ways admirable.

If you've ever seen "Bargain Loving Brits in the Sun" you'll get the gist of what I mean!!

CelticRambler

54and56 wrote: »

forced sellers in a hurry needing money to finance a new gaff back in the UK

It's not quite that simple. You have two different categories of "ex-pats" in these areas - the long-term residents, who are quite happy to live there most of the year as long as the British taxpayer continues to fund their lifestyle. These folk usually need to make an occasional trip back to tick some boxes or show their face at some appointment, but otherwise they've effectively permanently emigrated. These people will jump through whatever hoops they have to in order to stay in Spain, especially as - for many of them - going back to GB would be a financial impossibility, especially as they've already taken a hit on account of the relative devaluation of sterling over the last two decades.

The others are the seasonal migrators, and they're the ones who'll be most affected by the Schengen rules. I wouldn't expect a flood of these properties coming onto the market. Some owners will advance their plans to retire to the Costa house; some will accept the 90-in-180 day limit and allow family and friends to use the house when they can't be there; some will rent it until they make their minds up about the future; and finally you'll have those who decide that it no longer makes sense to keep their house/villa/apartment and they'll put it on the market. But that'll be a gradual development, and there's more than enough interest from the rest of Europe (including non-EU) to keep prices stable.

Dymo

joeysoap wrote: »

Medicines are certainly cheaper in Spain and particularly Portugal compared with here.

Yes and no, Medication in Spain is highly subsidised by the tax payer the Spanish system is that the person only pays 20% (varies) of the value of the medication so for example if you have heart tablets that cost you €50 here they will only cost you €10 but if your medication costs €800per month which some does it will cost you €160 in Spain which is more expensive than Ireland with the Drugs payment scheme.

With Brexit the the Spanish regions are going to be a lot happier with the tax implications, they (Provincias in spain) broke European law for years treating EU citizens different that Spanish citizens doubling the purchase and selling tax but were forced to change that in 2015.

There could be less UK citizens coming to relocate but in the last 15 years there has been a large influx from eastern European countries and Scandinavia that will help make that up.

yagan

Dymo wrote: »

There could be less UK citizens coming to relocate but in the last 15 years there has been a large influx from eastern European countries and Scandinavia that will help make that up.

There's something karmic about the eastern Europeans who were scapegoats for the Brexiters benefitting from it in Spain.

tubercolossus

BBC story about EU companies deciding not to sell to the UK because of Brexit red-tape.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55530721

schmoo2k

tubercolossus wrote: »

BBC story about EU companies deciding not to sell to the UK because of Brexit red-tape.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55530721

Having dipped my toe into some pro Brexit discussion groups, the BBC are doing themselves no favours with the "negative only" narrative (granted mostly true, but they could do more to appear impartial) - the Brexiters are baying for them to be defunded and we know they can make up a majority...

Seth Brundle

tubercolossus wrote: »

BBC story about EU companies deciding not to sell to the UK because of Brexit red-tape.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55530721

Have a look through the comments - there are still some who wouldn't believe the facts unless it was confirmed by Johnson...

Well they have had a few years to sort it out. Sounds like these companies dont actually sell that much to the UK otherwise they would just follow the new rules...

It helps UK SMEs. Brexit = job done. :-)

Refusing to sell products to potential customers is not a great business model.

Plus it also benefits British companies who will now get the business.

Sounds like this is what we actually voted for.

Bonza.

CelticRambler

That's more recycled news - I think we've had the main meat of that story posted on here twice already over the last month.

At the heart of it though is that same old nugget of Brexit stupidity: the UK is "taking back control" by replicating the exact same scheme proposed by the EU and coming into effect later this year, making life unnecessarily complicated for sellers who wish to supply the UK market; and adding extra cost to the UK taxpayer (because all that VAT could have been collected for free through the EU's union-wide OSS, but now they need to pay for their own people to administer it)

tubercolossus

schmoo2k wrote: »

Having dipped my toe into some pro Brexit discussion groups, the BBC are doing themselves no favours with the "negative only" narrative (granted mostly true, but they could do more to appear impartial) - the Brexiters are baying for them to be defunded and we know they can make up a majority...

Do you think there are Brexit positives which the BBC is ignoring?

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Have a look through the comments - there are still some who wouldn't believe the facts unless it was confirmed by Johnson...

It doesn't help UK SME's in the slightest, as these idiots / dunces seem to believe. Where do they think those companies get much of their supplies from and do their trade with? They seem totally unaware that the SMEs will be severely impacted from being outside the Single Market.

Seth Brundle

Strazdas wrote: »

It doesn't help UK SME's in the slightest, as these idiots / dunces seem to believe. Where do they think those companies get much of their supplies from and do their trade with? They seem totally unaware that the SMEs will be severely impacted from being outside the Single Market.

I'm not a psychologist but presume that it is a symptom of a nationalist's psyche in that they won't hear a negative word said about their beliefs. No imports is a good thing because now they can increase manufacturing (just don't think about the required process chains for it to work)

CelticRambler

Strazdas wrote: »

It doesn't help UK SME's in the slightest, as these idiots / dunces seem to believe. Where do they think those companies get much of their supplies from and do their trade with? They seem totally unaware that the SMEs will be severely impacted from being outside the Single Market.

Not forgetting that these same British SMEs, if they wish to export to the EU, now have to register with the OSS and collect VAT on behalf of the EU. :P

Capt'n Midnight

tubercolossus wrote: »

BBC story about EU companies deciding not to sell to the UK because of Brexit red-tape.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55530721

That actually has nothing to do with Brexit. Except the timing.



Companies in the US are also a tad miffed. Can't find the one where a company in California pointed out there were like 195 countries in the world and no way where they going to put up with 195 different ways of handing VAT so aidos UK customers.


https://twitter.com/williamshatner/status/1316887009198141441?lang=en


They've also changed the VAT rules for sub-contractors which kicks in in March.

yagan

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'm not a psychologist but presume that it is a symptom of a nationalist's psyche in that they won't hear a negative word said about their beliefs. No imports is a good thing because now they can increase manufacturing (just don't think about the required process chains for it to work)

I'll run with this. There are plenty of cases of less competition being good for a local business, but inversely the lifestyle that Brits have become used was developed on a continent deep economy of scale.

What production advantages felt immediately are quickly countered by the fact that the domestic market becomes so small that domestic producers can't even compete against imports that have had tariffs applied.

Then there's the continent deep supply chains that can't suddenly be replaced domestically. The French motor group PSA took over Vauxhall with this in mind and identified that the one vehicle it could make profitably using domestic British supply chains was a basic van model.

Increasing tariffs against outside competition only hinders innovation and the only other instance I can think of a wealthy country doing this was Argentina, and that didn't work out well.

schmoo2k

tubercolossus wrote: »

Do you think there are Brexit positives which the BBC is ignoring?

While there may not be financial gains - there are all those cosmetic and sovereignty changes which folks latched onto (yes I know...).

There is nothing stopping them interviewing a few happy people with blue passports...

Its like the Democrats constantly calling the Republicans and Trump supporters stupid and uneducated, its only going to further widen the divide (and for the record, if the republicans take the senate, then its actually the best possible outcome for non Trump supporting republicans...)

CelticRambler

yagan wrote: »

There are plenty of cases of less competition being good for a local business, but inversely the lifestyle that Brits have become used was developed on a continent deep economy of scale.

I'd go further and say that they have become used to a low cost lifestyle built on the back of cheap Asian labour (as have most of the rest of us). The difference is that there's no balance - it's all consumption. Hence why we see Ireland showing a trade surplus with China while the UK has a deep deficit.

By sheer coincidence, I've just this minute read this opinion piece in the NY Times, which observes (in respect of the US):

The country, once a manufacturing powerhouse, is populated by corporations that have moved manufacturing overseas and lost their ability to produce domestically, leaving little behind except shell companies that employ relatively few people. The United States no longer produces even the essentials, from personal protective equipment to our smartphones and laptops.

The huge short-term profits of this trend, coupled with impressive decreases in the prices of certain consumer goods, soothed many Americans. But the country lost sight of the critical requirements of a vibrant economy — which is good jobs. Death by despair from drug overdoses, suicide, and alcoholism has been claiming hundreds of thousands of people unable to find well-paying work.

Instead of creating these manufacturing jobs, the economy is adding poorly paid service jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the occupation that will add the most jobs over the next decade will be for “home health and personal care aides,” which pays about $25,000 a year.

This is just as true for the UK as the US, and to date, none of the Brexiter sermonising has indicated anything to suggest that they're serious about re-building British manufacturing - it's all about "Singapore-on-Thames" and other corporate-friendly tax-evasion schemes.

Capt'n Midnight

tubercolossus wrote: »

Do you think there are Brexit positives which the BBC is ignoring?

If you pour water some of it can splash higher than where you are pouring it from. Doesn't mean the rest of the water is at a higher level.

A rising tide lifts all boats. If it doesn't lift all boats it's not a rising tide.

But as Mythbusters proved you can polish a turd if you try hard enough.


So it will be interesting to see what they try to spin.

Tell me how

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'd go further and say that they have become used to a low cost lifestyle built on the back of cheap Asian labour (as have most of the rest of us). The difference is that there's no balance - it's all consumption. Hence why we see Ireland showing a trade surplus with China while the UK has a deep deficit.

By sheer coincidence, I've just this minute read this opinion piece in the NY Times, which observes (in respect of the US):



This is just as true for the UK as the US, and to date, none of the Brexiter sermonising has indicated anything to suggest that they're serious about re-building British manufacturing - it's all about "Singapore-on-Thames" and other corporate-friendly tax-evasion schemes.

It's a topic nearly worthy of its own thread. Just what will 'Western' Jobs markets look like in 20 years time.

All very relevant and ties in to the disparity between base wage stagnation as C level pay and bonuses climbed over the last 50 years.

CelticRambler

OK, here's another Covid story, but this one is definitely an example of the Brexit dividend: Netherlands and Germany refuse entry to UK nationals for non-essential travel

More than a dozen UK nationals have been refused entry to the Netherlands since 1 January because Britain is no longer exempt from Covid-related restrictions on non-essential travel from outside the EU since it left the bloc.

A Dutch border force spokesman confirmed on Monday that up to 13 British citizens had been turned away at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport since Friday because their trips were not necessary and third-country coronavirus regulations now applied.

<snip>

A small number of British citizens were also barred from entry into Germany. A Lufthansa spokesman said the airline was aware of a British citizen being stopped from boarding a flight in the UK after failing to prove their residence in Germany.

Victoria Dobbie tweeted on Sunday that she was stopped from boarding a flight to Munich after Lufthansa rejected her rental contract, work contract and her German tax number as adequate proof of residence.

Britons resident in Germany are not expected to receive new types of residence documents confirming their status for several months and Germany’s federal police have said border staff would also accept rental or work contracts as proof.

There are concerns, however, that ground staff at airports are not qualified to assess the validity of documents and could demand proof residents are not legally required to present.

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'm not a psychologist but presume that it is a symptom of a nationalist's psyche in that they won't hear a negative word said about their beliefs. No imports is a good thing because now they can increase manufacturing (just don't think about the required process chains for it to work)

They seem surprisingly protectionist, as if they never actually bought into the 'Global Britain' palaver - gleefully talking about how it would be a good thing if British consumers bought only GB goods and nothing from outside the country.

But this type of protectionist mind set would definitely tie in with an ultra nationalist view of the world.

Christy42

schmoo2k wrote: »

While there may not be financial gains - there are all those cosmetic and sovereignty changes which folks latched onto (yes I know...).

There is nothing stopping them interviewing a few happy people with blue passports...

Its like the Democrats constantly calling the Republicans and Trump supporters stupid and uneducated, its only going to further widen the divide (and for the record, if the republicans take the senate, then its actually the best possible outcome for non Trump supporting republicans...)

Indeed. And I can't remember the last time we heard a flat earther get serious air time on the BBC...

At a certain point you have to call a spade a spade.