Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Gerry T

listermint wrote: »

Unless my math is bad it's 66 to 32 saying it's bad..

I think he was being sarcastic

Strazdas

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Irish agricultural exports to the UK may face tariffs.
This will decimate the Irish agricultural industry

Many analysts suspect Brexit UK will be forced back to the negotiating table very quickly if there is No Deal. A developed country cannot exist for years without trade deals (contrary to what the Brexiteer loons think).

View

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Not really - The UK cannot feed itself , it must import food .They have nowhere else to get the Foodstuffs they need nor do they have any significant deals with any other countries that could supply them.

All that will happen is that the UK consumer will be paying more for their food.

There is of course the issue of goods going over and back across the NI border during the various stages of processing potentially incurring tarriffs (which will work both ways), but I think a lot of work is in progress to mitigate that longer term.

Yeah but Brexiters plan on sourcing all their food imports from Australia and New Zealand. :-)

How much of the UK's agricultural exports to mainland EU could be replaced by Ireland I wonder in the event of tariffs and delays..

ExMachina1000

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You keep saying decimated but just because 10% of agriculture/food products go to UK does not mean this 10% evaporates on 1st of January.

We also import more from UK than we export to them, to quote em Brexiteers, they need us more than we need them

We should not be bending over for UK one bit, the bigger issue here is how they want to rowback on the WA and GFA, that alone would have bigger impact for farmers in this country, than any "possible" trade deal.

You seem to believe that each farmer will continue on as usual just 10% less.

Very simplistic understanding figures and of the industry as a whole.

54and56

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Other European countries wont just decide to import Irish agricultural goods overnight. They already have their own trades and routes. And certainly not on that scale.

For a basic example Irish beef may be just too expensive. Adding in extra transport costs on top of that again

True but a no deal WTO Brexit will be structurally disruptive in some ways similar to how Covid has forced unplanned change on several industries. There will be an initial period of stress and strain (financially, operationally, logistically etc) but ultimately businesses will adapt. Some will find new markets for existing products, some will add value to existing products and thus find new market sectors and some will change the product they produce to something there is commercially viable demand for.

Along the way the EU will do it's best to provide a financial safety net and will also internally promote that the purchase of products and services from countries/suppliers most negatively impacted by Brexit. Their ability to do so may be affected by the concurrent Covid pandemic but if there's one thing the EU is good at doing it's sticking together and using the strength of the big to support the weakness of the small.

Once that initial and very painful adjustment is made the UK will like a small island leper colony on the periphery of a very strong and healthy continent.

Hurrache

As Sam Coates says, they plan on giving themselves an out on pretty much everything related to the previous agreement. It's as if Johnson has his fingers crossed behind his back when signing it
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1303680056577994757

listermint

Hurrache wrote: »

As Sam Coates says, they plan on giving themselves an out on pretty much everything related to the previous agreement. It's as if Johnson has his fingers crossed behind his back when signing it
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1303680056577994757

Well he did walk into the ERG and say sign it, sign it everyone it means nothing anyway because il break all of it later on.

(forgive my editing of the language used but its pretty much the gist of what was done)


And so the ERG signed up and went out saying great deal Boris oven ready youve got our backing.

These are the reasons the ERG was such a secretive little group with no published members list. They are all bought and paid for (or at least hoping to be bought) Money sloshing around london has an absolutely leeching effect on morals and ethics.

reslfj

Quin_Dub wrote: »

There is of course the issue of goods going over and back across the NI border during the various stages of processing potentially incurring tarriffs

The RoI-NI trade in goods follows the WA - a signed and ratified international treaty. If the UK will not follow the WA, the EU and Ireland are unlikely to take Irish or NI farmers as hostages. Unlike anyone on the island of Ireland will - imo.

The EU-UK trade restrictions - if they ever come - will be across the English Channel and in airports.

There will e.g. be no border problems with RoI cows delivering to a NI dairy and the processed milk being sold in a Dublin supermarket.

Lars

PS! Tariffs do not automatically works both ways. E.G. cars US ->EU 10%, cars EU -> US 2% ( the US produces cars in Europe for the European market - Ford, Chrysler (now Fiat-Chrysler) and until a few years ago Opel, Vauxhall was GM.

Hurrache

They're now claiming it was agreed to too quickly. The feckin clowns, they're the morons who wouldn't allow time in their own parliament to be digested and debated.

54and56

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

You seem to believe that each farmer will continue on as usual just 10% less.

Very simplistic understanding figures and of the industry as a whole.

Some farmers who export most or all of their product to the UK will be decimated by a no deal / WTO Brexit just as any business which relies on selling one product or service primarily to one customer puts itself at enormous risk if it doesn't seek to diversify it's products and/or broaden its customer base on receipt of knowledge that the customer who underpins it's business may cease to be a customer from X date.

I know it's not easy for beef farmers or cheddar cheese makers to diversify into products which aren't as reliant on the UK market but Brexit hasn't just been signalled it's been painfully progressed over the last 4 years front and centre on news channels and in newspapers etc. No one could possibly plead ignorance.

Add to that the election of BoJo, his side kick Cummings isolationist agenda and the hooligan type behaviour of the UK Govt in proroguing parliament etc whilst being cheered on by the Brexit fundamentalists and it can't come as a surprise to any farmer reliant on exporting to the UK that their business may be existentially threatened from 01-01-2021.

Some will have ignored the possibility of a no deal Brexit in the hope a deal will be done and things will stay more or less the same but they may (or will likely?) be wrong and their refusal to proactively plan for a removal of tariff free access to the UK market may indeed see them go out of business.

That would be a personal tragedy for them and their families the primary responsibility for which is the UK decision to elect a Govt who want to pursue a fundamentalist "pure" form of Brexit but there is also some negligence on the part of any farmer (or other business owner) who could have taken steps to mitigate the effects of a no deal Brexit and chose not to.

abff

Hurrache wrote: »

They're now claiming it was agreed to too quickly.

That has to be one of the most pathetic excuses ever. "My word is my bond" unless I subsequently decide to change my mind using whatever flimsy excuse I can come up with.

fash

Hurrache wrote: »

They're now claiming it was agreed to too quickly. The feckin clowns, they're the morons who wouldn't allow time in their own parliament to be digested and debated.

And yet they set up an even shorter time to agree the FTA - and without scrutiny.

54and56

listermint wrote: »

Well he did walk into the ERG and say sign it, sign it everyone it means nothing anyway because il break all of it later on.

(forgive my editing of the language used but its pretty much the gist of what was done)


And so the ERG signed up and went out saying great deal Boris oven ready youve got our backing.

These are the reasons the ERG was such a secretive little group with no published members list. They are all bought and paid for (or at least hoping to be bought) Money sloshing around london has an absolutely leeching effect on morals and ethics.

What happens if enough Tories wake up from drinking the Koolaid, recognise the global consequences of putting into law the ability for any UK Govt Minister to set aside any provision of any international agreement it has ever entered into, and rebels to vote down the proposed legislation?

Would that in a masterfully calculated Machiavellian manner allow BoJo to shrug his shoulders to the ERG and other Brexit Fundamentalists and say "I tried" but parliament stopped me so now, just as I was previously forced to ask the EU for an extension to finalise negotiating the WA, I have no choice but to implement the WA in full (as it remains primary UK legislation which the courts will enforce) and secure the best version of the FTA the EU is offering given the legs have been cut from under me?

Retr0gamer

Hurrache wrote: »

They're now claiming it was agreed to too quickly. The feckin clowns, they're the morons who wouldn't allow time in their own parliament to be digested and debated.

And the appropriate response is 'tough ****'. There's plenty of people out there that think they signed their mortgage too quickly. No out for them.

I wonder how much legal weight this document holds? You can't just say that international law no longer applies to us.

I think this is some ridiculous game of chicken by the Tories. They are currently in negotiations where they are bluffing and have absolutely no leverage to play with. So their leverage now is we have a law that says anything we agree to we can ignore legally. If I was on the EU side of negotiations I'd be getting pretty sick of this. I'd tell them to stop acting like children throwing their toys out of the pram and negotiate like adults.

Gerry T

Hurrache wrote: »

As Sam Coates says, they plan on giving themselves an out on pretty much everything related to the previous agreement. It's as if Johnson has his fingers crossed behind his back when signing it
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1303680056577994757

One funny comment on the twitter feed for your link is quite funny, saying they should have just added the laws of physics while they were at it

Leroy42

Retr0gamer wrote: »

And the appropriate response is 'tough ****'. There's plenty of people out there that think they signed their mortgage too quickly. No out for them.

I wonder how much legal weight this document holds? You can't just say that international law no longer applies to us.

I think this is some ridiculous game of chicken by the Tories. They are currently in negotiations where they are bluffing and have absolutely no leverage to play with. So their leverage now is we have a law that says anything we agree to we can ignore legally. If I was on the EU side of negotiations I'd be getting pretty sick of this. I'd tell them to stop acting like children throwing their toys out of the pram and negotiate like adults.

And what would that achieve? They knew exactly what they were doing with this, that why it was 'leaked', They want a fight with the EU, so they can see the EU storm off and cry that it was the EU "wat dun it". THis is aimed purely at the domestic audience.

The key question is that the EU can or should do next. They can't demand the law be pulled, since that plays into the hands of those shouting about control our laws.

They should continue to negotiate on the basis that it will all be good. Arrive, if possible, on a deal, with the last part being that the full WA must be implemented.

They are using this to try to bully the EU into a deal, but if a deal is there, but this needs to be removed, would Johnson really turn it down?

Retr0gamer

Leroy42 wrote: »

And what would that achieve? They knew exactly what they were doing with this, that why it was 'leaked', They want a fight with the EU, so they can see the EU storm off and cry that it was the EU "wat dun it". THis is aimed purely at the domestic audience.

The key question is that the EU can or should do next. They can't demand the law be pulled, since that plays into the hands of those shouting about control our laws.

They should continue to negotiate on the basis that it will all be good. Arrive, if possible, on a deal, with the last part being that the full WA must be implemented.

They are using this to try to bully the EU into a deal, but if a deal is there, but this needs to be removed, would Johnson really turn it down?

True. I agree with you as well that this is just fabricating some imaginary leverage because the UK really has nothing to play with. It's utterly ridiculous behaviour from a government. What the UK just signed will be deemed illegal but there's a whole legal and cost mess to deal with if you went after it that way.

I think this really shows how little the Tories care about Northern Ireland. They're pretty much being offered up as a sacrifice to give them leverage. Basically if this deal doesn't go through NI is ****ed. And if that happens they will blame the EU when it's these stupid laws they have just ratified.

awec

If this bill passes then it must surely be time for the EU to publicly focus on mitigating no deal now, and reduce emphasis on the trade talks to a minimum.

This is a charade now.

Leroy42

Even worse for the UK, removed from Brexit, is that the bill seems to give the minister to authority to override any law, domestic or international. Whilst it is clearly an attempt ot wiggle out of the WA, they have gone full bore on this and would give cart blanch to the relevant minister to act however they please, within the areas of State aid and NI trade.

So you could easily see a situation where a minister hands out billions in free money to carefully selected firms with no review, no recourse nothing.

The people of the UK should be up in ars of this power grab. It is being hidden behind the dream of Brexit, so that they will get people to ignore these bits as they are busy getting on over on the EU.

Patser

awec wrote: »

If this bill passes then it must surely be time for the EU to publicly focus on mitigating no deal now, and reduce emphasis on the trade talks to a minimum.

This is a charade now.

They really have to. This legislation introduced today wont pass into law for months, possibly up to a year from now. How can you negotiate with a Govt that simultaneously is bringing in a law that allows that Govt to unilateral alter things it doesn't like afterwards

Strazdas

awec wrote: »

If this bill passes then it must surely be time for the EU to publicly focus on mitigating no deal now, and reduce emphasis on the trade talks to a minimum.

This is a charade now.

I think the implications for the actual trade deal are ominous now in any event. Apparently state aid and fisheries are big sticking points. What would be to stop Brexit UK announcing in summer 2021 "We never actually agreed to these state aid rules with the EU, the trade deal was rushed" etc?

The Raging Bile Duct

Strazdas wrote: »

I think the implications for the actual trade deal are ominous now in any event. Apparently state aid and fisheries are big sticking points. What would be to stop Brexit UK announcing in summer 2021 "We never actually agreed to these state aid rules with the EU, the trade deal was rushed" etc?

I thought it was going to be the quickest and easiest trade deal in history?

An Ciarraioch

Interesting legal argument by a Welsh Conservative, who has resigned from the shadow cabinet in the Senedd, on the grounds that the powers invoked through the Bill risk destroying the UK:

https://twitter.com/DavidMeldingMS/status/1303695663172136961

Strazdas

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

I thought it was going to be the quickest and easiest trade deal in history?

I suspect the main reason all of this is kicking off is that you have a hostile and anti-EU country attempting to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. Normally FTA negotiations would be done in a spirit of friendship or mutual respect, but in this instance, we have the bizarre spectacle of a shifty / untrustworthy type sitting at the table, very possibly trying to screw the other side over.

fash

Strazdas wrote: »

I suspect the main reason all of this is kicking off is that you have a hostile and anti-EU country attempting to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. Normally FTA negotiations would be done in a spirit of friendship or mutual respect, but in this instance, we have the bizarre spectacle of a shifty / untrustworthy type sitting at the table, very possibly trying to screw the other side over.

not only that: a hostile state which has delusions of grandeur, a victimhood complex, arrogance, a sense of entitlement and a belief in its exceptionalism with a failed democracy and extraordinary control over its propaganda organs / former media (weakened by social media etc) trying to retain benefits after leaving. Of note, this is also plan "C": plan A was the EU would give them whatever they wanted, plan B was the collapse of the EU - they are now in unexpected territory.

J Mysterio

Silent Running wrote: »

I find it a bit disturbing to see posts point out that they - the British people - voted for this and that they deserve all they get. They didn't all vote for this, yet they will all suffer the consequences.

Our own Dark Horse didn't vote for this, I'm sure, but his life will probably be changed for the worse because of it. My daughter and son-in-law north of London didn't vote for this and are worried what the future will bring.

As an aside, the father of my son-in-law is a typical Brexiter. According to him it's no problem if the UK breaks up over this, England doesn't need them. In fact England is sick of them riding their coat tails, and NI is costing him a fortune. He has no problem with going to WTO rules as he bleats "at least they're fair, not like the EU" This from a well educated man. :rolleyes:

I understand your point, it's awful that many good and decent people will suffer, but the reality is that Johnson and co were given a thumping majority by the British people to implement this mania. This after years of absolute nonsense, lies and skullduggery that they somehow got away with. Behaviour that was tolerated/ accepted/ 'explained away'.

Sure, not everyone is a Conservative or Brexiteer, but Labour are almost as bad in terms of sheer incompetence. They let the Tories away with this for years, and then got absolutely hammered in the GE. They are always to busy infighting to get serious, organise and coalesce.

'Learnings' have to be applied. Actions do have consequences. The UK is on track for absolute carastrophe, and it has been for some time, yet they keep on digging, furiously. Now they are openly breaking International law! As brazen as you like, It's absolutely mind-boggling. The UK reputation is already badly tarnished, but they are moving beyond the rubicon.

There will be pain, undoubtedly. Hopefully the British people as a whole can evolve in the future, in the knowledge that - as a collective - they have behaved appallingly and this directly led to their suffering.

I myself know a good few English people who I always thought very well of, but was very disturbed to learn they supported Brexit and parroted the same nonsense about the EU as the most ardent Brexiteer. The need for Brexit seems to be quite commonly accepted.

Really, the UK has to come to terms with it's place in the world. It is slowly happening, I think. The BLM protests encouraged some introspection.

I beleive the entire system now needs to be rebuilt. It's antiquated and ridiculous in many ways. e.g. change the voting system, abolish or reform the Lords and peerages etc. Very few MPs deserve to be addressed as 'right honourable. Perhaps now would also be a good time for the Monarchy to step away. It's increasingly irrelevant and out of touch.

Time for a revolution of sorts.

The UK as an entity will probably end soon anyway due to this never ending lunacy.

TCDStudent1

When will HoC be voting on the internal market bill?

J Mysterio

Enzokk wrote: »

The reaction from the EU Commission,

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1303664931485745153?s=19

The Tories love a bit of Latin.

listermint

J Mysterio wrote: »

I understand your point, it's awful that many good and decent people will suffer, but the reality is that Johnson and co were given a thumping majority by the British people to implement this mania. This after years of absolute nonsense, lies and skullduggery that they somehow got away with. Behaviour that was tolerated/ accepted/ 'explained away'.

Sure, not everyone is a Conservative or Brexiteer, but Labour are almost as bad in terms of sheer incompetence. They let the Tories away with this for years, and then got absolutely hammered in the GE. They are always to busy infighting to get serious, organise and coalesce.

'Learnings' have to be applied. Actions do have consequences. The UK is on track for absolute carastrophe, and it has been for some time, yet they keep on digging, furiously. Now they are openly breaking International law! As brazen as you like, It's absolutely mind-boggling. The UK reputation is already badly tarnished, but they are moving beyond the rubicon.

There will be pain, undoubtedly. Hopefully the British people as a whole can evolve in the future, in the knowledge that - as a collective - they have behaved appallingly and this directly led to their suffering.

I myself know a good few English people who I always thought very well of, but was very disturbed to learn they supported Brexit and parroted the same nonsense about the EU as the most ardent Brexiteer. The need for Brexit seems to be quite commonly accepted.

Really, the UK has to come to terms with it's place in the world. It is slowly happening, I think. The BLM protests encouraged some introspection.

I beleive the entire system now needs to be rebuilt. It's antiquated and ridiculous in many ways. e.g. change the voting system, abolish or reform the Lords and peerages etc. Very few MPs deserve to be addressed as 'right honourable. Perhaps now would also be a good time for the Monarchy to step away. It's increasingly irrelevant and out of touch.

Time for a revolution of sorts.

The UK as an entity will probably end soon anyway due to this never ending lunacy.

The only way for this to be sorted is for revolution, And i dont mean murder in the streets. The UK needs a short sharp correction for the wider apathetic audience to really feel what it means to be solo on the international stage. For me the EU cant play nice, that means removing it all. Including landing rights.

You will suddenly see the half hearted supporters and those that had said sure look lets just get on with it see what the reality is. Union strikes, people actually taking to the streets. And election has to be called and people power will have to drive that.