Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

But that is a hypothetical question and any answer, whatever it was, would be twisted ad would be used against him. It is four years before an election will be called, and any response will be used against him in the future. Better to just bat it away.

I understand your point of view. However, much like the optics of voting for this deal in December, the optics of a statement like that is terrible. If I am a Labour voter, I am probably a committed Remainer. To see Labour vote for an extremely hard Brexit and for Starmer, just a month later, to then come out and dismiss any meaningful renegotiation is pathetic and sends a very wrong message. Today, if I am a pro EU voter, which party should I consider joining?

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So why didn't he say that? Why not say: We will certainly look to see how we can renegotiate this deal in a way that preserves sovereignty but allows our economy and society to gain from a better relationship with our neighbours. If I was a Labour-voting Remainer, to put it mildly, I would be very disillusioned with Labour hearing what he actually said. In fact, I'd be sick to my stomach.

Because there's no point. He's not in power and the next election is nearly four years away. It'd be far too easy to spin a renegotiation as a remainer plot by the press at this stage.

If Labour remainers are disillusioned, fair enough but there's a long way from here to the next election.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Because there's no point. He's not in power and the next election is nearly four years away. It'd be far too easy to spin a renegotiation as a remainer plot by the press at this stage.

If Labour remainers are disillusioned, fair enough but there's a long way from here to the next election.

There is four years most likely. Starmer has capitulated utterly and is providing zero opposition to this Brexit deal. In fact he's endorsing it. And that is how it's going to stay because whenever he opens his mouth about Brexit, Johnson will simply say that Labour voted for it. Besides which, the Tories will have baked Brexit into the British system by the time the next GE comes around. They've already started this with Operation Bleach - which is just the beginning. If Brexit was my primary political issue as a current Labour member, I'd join the Lib Dems.

Capt'n Midnight

sondagefaux wrote: »

If you look at voting trends in Northern Ireland, there's now a significant cohort of voters who don't regard themselves as either nationalist or unionist

It's now over 50%.

sondagefaux wrote: »

They tend to be more middle-class and educated than the average in NI. The greater the percentage of these people in NI's population (which a more prosperous NI would facilitate), the more likely there is to be a majority for a united Ireland.

But they don't all want a united Ireland.

You have ignored the immigrants who never belonged to either tribe. And there's all the people who grew up since the border came down.

It's not simple. But a UI does offer a way out if the fertilizer impacts the impeller.


The good people of NI can look at Cornwall gets treated.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There is four years most likely. Starmer has capitulated utterly and is providing zero opposition to this Brexit deal. In fact he's endorsing it. And that is how it's going to stay because whenever he opens his mouth about Brexit, Johnson will simply say that Labour voted for it. Besides which, the Tories will have baked Brexit into the British system by the time the next GE comes around. They've already started this with Operation Bleach - which is just the beginning. If Brexit was my primary political issue as a current Labour member, I'd join the Lib Dems.

I disagree. There is no political capital or advantage whatsoever to be gained from going on about renegotiating the thing right now. If Labour are going to do it, they'll need to win in 2024. Meanwhile, Johnson has just sold out the country and presided over an appalling response to covid.

Johnson was elected on a mandate of "getting Brexit done". Interfering with this too much isn't going to produced desirable results. Let Brexit acquire a definition before attacking it.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree. There is no political capital or advantage whatsoever to be gained from going on about renegotiating the thing right now. If Labour are going to do it, they'll need to win in 2024. Meanwhile, Johnson has just sold out the country and presided over an appalling response to covid.

Johnson was elected on a mandate of "getting Brexit done". Interfering with this too much isn't going to produced desirable results. Let Brexit acquire a definition before attacking it.

But the whole point was that he was asked what he would do in four years' time. He could have said many ambiguous things that would have given some hope to Remain Labour voters, particularly young voters. Instead he said that Labour must adhere to this agreement and that there will be no meaningful renegotiation in four years' time. That's plainly stupid. It wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce for the Lib Dems based on Starmer's Brexit performance over the past month.

dresden8

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But the whole point was that he was asked what he would do in four years' time. He could have said many ambiguous things that would have given some hope to Remain Labour voters, particularly young voters. Instead he said that Labour must adhere to this agreement and that there will be no meaningful renegotiation in four years' time. That's plainly stupid. It wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce for the Lib Dems based on Starmer's Brexit performance over the past month.

It does seem that the Tories are back in charge of the Labour Party. No opposition, just unequivocal support.

Professor Moriarty

dresden8 wrote: »

It does seem that the Tories are back in charge of the Labour Party. No opposition, just unequivocal support.

I think they've completely outmanoeuvred Labour and have painted them into a corner. Starmer is better than Corbyn but not a whole lot better it would seem.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Today, if I am a pro EU voter, which party should I consider joining?

Pro Tip : don't join the - Leopards Eating People's Faces Party.


FPTP means you have to vote for the the candidate most likely to beat a Tory because they can't roll back on Brexit yet.

The LibDems somehow need to become relevant again. The DUP have had more seats than the LibDems have now which means they might as well be the fifth party in a two party system in important elections.

They might get more seats in a normal election but the local authority mergers a while back will also erode their candidate base.


Maybe join the Young Conservatives so you can collect material to blackmail them with later.




Is there anything to be said for the SNP running in a few seats south of the border ?

Capt'n Midnight

dresden8 wrote: »

It does seem that the Tories are back in charge of the Labour Party. No opposition, just unequivocal support.

Anagram from way back.

Tony Blair MP = I'm Tory Plan B


How much did it cost Momentum to get that deep into Labour ? It could be done.

Lumen

The "remainer" strategy is now ever closer alignment back towards BRINO.

This is a war that can be won through thousands of tiny victories each too complicated, boring and sensible to trigger the Europhobes.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But the whole point was that he was asked what he would do in four years' time. He could have said many ambiguous things that would have given some hope to Remain Labour voters, particularly young voters. Instead he said that Labour must adhere to this agreement and that there will be no meaningful renegotiation in four years' time. That's plainly stupid. It wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce for the Lib Dems based on Starmer's Brexit performance over the past month.

And if he says that he'll aim for closer alignment or a restoration of freedom of movement he's done which torpedoes his chances of winning back the red wall.

Liberal remainers will not vote Tory but red wall voters might. The deal is done. Railing against it is pointless. I'd have abstained in his position but it is done.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

And if he says that he'll aim for closer alignment or a restoration of freedom of movement he's done which torpedoes his chances of winning back the red wall.

Liberal remainers will not vote Tory but red wall voters might. The deal is done. Railing against it is pointless. I'd have abstained in his position but it is done.

Okay, we'll have to agree to disagree on this.

listermint

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

And if he says that he'll aim for closer alignment or a restoration of freedom of movement he's done which torpedoes his chances of winning back the red wall.

Liberal remainers will not vote Tory but red wall voters might. The deal is done. Railing against it is pointless. I'd have abstained in his position but it is done.

Tbh , he should and could have just said. I'm not in government right now . We don't know if I will be in government in 4 years time. I would love the opportunity. But right now my job is to hold the Tories to task on their promises they are in power all of our current issues and problems are their's. Let's talk about the current government rather than something that hasn't happened yet


The end.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I understand your point of view. However, much like the optics of voting for this deal in December, the optics of a statement like that is terrible. If I am a Labour voter, I am probably a committed Remainer. To see Labour vote for an extremely hard Brexit and for Starmer, just a month later, to then come out and dismiss any meaningful renegotiation is pathetic and sends a very wrong message. Today, if I am a pro EU voter, which party should I consider joining?

The SNP, of course.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

Tbh , he should and could have just said. I'm not in government right now . We don't know if I will be in government in 4 years time. I would love the opportunity. But right now my job is to hold the Tories to task on their promises they are in power all of our current issues and problems are their's. Let's talk about the current government rather than something that hasn't happened yet


The end.

Actually in addition to that. It tells me that he's not ready for the prime time.


He is a very poor opposition leader. I've no faith be can take the Tories seriously to task and get people behind the labour Party again.

And this should be an easier task given what's going on.

ancapailldorcha

listermint wrote: »

Tbh , he should and could have just said. I'm not in government right now . We don't know if I will be in government in 4 years time. I would love the opportunity. But right now my job is to hold the Tories to task on their promises they are in power all of our current issues and problems are their's. Let's talk about the current government rather than something that hasn't happened yet


The end.

I get what you're saying but I think he just wants to avoid being seen as wanting to alter the thing before it's had a fair go in the eyes of the public. If people are still raging about fish this time next year, he can always go for it then but for now it needs to be given a fair chance.

Enzokk

The Tories have one thing they know how to do, its to stoke a bitter battle when it comes to Brexit and Labour trying to frustrate it. The only times Johnson looked comfortable across Starmer in PMQ's was when there was questions around Brexit. Johnson could then accuse Labour of trying to subvert the vote and overturn the wishes of 17.4m people.

We are less than 2 weeks into Brexit and some want Starmer to go full EU rejoin. Okay, I am exaggerating but you wanted a more pro-EU stance about what Labour could do in 4 years time. There is nothing to gain by even suggesting that Labour would go near changing the terms of the current deal when it has been less than 2 weeks since it has been implemented.

The long game, while frustrating to hear, is to let this all play out. If we are all correct and it will lead to a decline of the UK then the argument makes itself. But there is nothing to win right now by giving the Tories exactly what they want when they need the focus off of their own Brexit deal. They would have loved nothing more than Daily Mail headlines about Starmer already plotting to overturn Brexit, instead of the stories about the deal Johnson agreed.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

And if he says that he'll aim for closer alignment or a restoration of freedom of movement he's done which torpedoes his chances of winning back the red wall.

Liberal remainers will not vote Tory but red wall voters might. The deal is done. Railing against it is pointless. I'd have abstained in his position but it is done.

Why is everyone pandering to these red wall Tories? It shows how messed up British politics is that nobody dare say anything for fear of offending these charmers and as a consequence have to play along with their bigotry / xenophobia.

Enzokk

Strazdas wrote: »

Why is everyone pandering to these red wall Tories? It shows how messed up British politics is that nobody dare say anything for fear of offending these charmers and as a consequence have to play along with their bigotry / xenophobia.

Because that is the way for Labour to win with FPTP. Femi posted an interesting strategy to get a new voting system in, but it would mean working with other parties. While it would men no more Tory majorities, it would also mean no more Labour majority governments. Some people will not be able to give this up in Labour so I don't see either big party ever agreeing to voting reform.

View

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Like I said More talks on nuclear, so nothing is 100% confirmed yet.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00009-y

The journalists concerned appear to either have engaged in poetic license or just to have confused an agreement on cooperation with “associate membership”.

The EU and the U.K. did conclude an agreement on (civil use) nuclear cooperation, but associate membership is not mentioned anywhere in it.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement/eu-uk-agreement-cooperation-safe-and-peaceful-uses-nuclear-energy_en

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

Because that is the way for Labour to win with FPTP. Femi posted an interesting strategy to get a new voting system in, but it would mean working with other parties. While it would men no more Tory majorities, it would also mean no more Labour majority governments. Some people will not be able to give this up in Labour so I don't see either big party ever agreeing to voting reform.

The system is an obvious disaster. The reason these former Labour supporters love Johnson is that they have identified him as a fellow racist / Islamophobe etc.

Imagine Labour having to rely on people like that for support (a traditionally anti-racist party).

View

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

And if he says that he'll aim for closer alignment or a restoration of freedom of movement he's done which torpedoes his chances of winning back the red wall.

Liberal remainers will not vote Tory but red wall voters might. The deal is done. Railing against it is pointless. I'd have abstained in his position but it is done.

Red wall voters might vote for Labour was the strategy the Labour Party pursued prior to the last GE, and those voters rushed to back the Conservatives, not Labour.

And those Liberal remainers now have a positive incentive NOT to vote for Labour, since they are d&mned if they have to choose between either of the tweedledum or tweedledee big two parties.

View

Strazdas wrote: »

The system is an obvious disaster. The reason these former Labour supporters love Johnson is that they have identified him as a fellow racist / Islamophobe etc.

Imagine Labour having to rely on people like that for support (a traditionally anti-racist party).

Indeed Labour is now actively pursuing the UKIP “appalling bigot” voters, which is a far cry from anything resembling traditional Labour values, much less anything remotely claiming to be progressive.

sondagefaux

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But the whole point was that he was asked what he would do in four years' time. He could have said many ambiguous things that would have given some hope to Remain Labour voters, particularly young voters. Instead he said that Labour must adhere to this agreement and that there will be no meaningful renegotiation in four years' time. That's plainly stupid. It wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce for the Lib Dems based on Starmer's Brexit performance over the past month.

If he wants Labour to be repellent to most people who were aged 40 or under in 2016 (the oldest pushing 50 by 2024), he's going the right way about it.

If he thinks losing the referendum and 'getting Brexit done' means the pro-EU referendum element of the electorate are just going to give up, he should look at Scotland.

Apart from a blip in 2017, the SNP (and the pro-independence Scottish Green Party to a lesser extent) have dominated Scottish elections in the years since 2014.

I presume he's written off Scotland and has decided to gamble on this strategy resulting in a net gain of seats for Labour.

I think it's a very high risk strategy.

Fair play if he pulls it off, I think the odds are against it working though.

Labour want to pretend that Brexit is no longer an issue in British politics, wants to go back to old-fashioned Labour v Tory retail politics and hopes enough of the electorate will feel the same in 2024.

A big risk, even if only a net 10% of the people who might have voted for them if they hadn't abandoned their commitment to freedom of movement going elsewhere could be enough to split the anti-Tory vote, not a good idea in an FPTP system.

Targeting mainly older voters who switched to the Tories while alienating mainly younger voters isn't a great long-term strategy either.

Wesekn.

I think Starmer is behaving responsibly in voting for the deal and backing it

fiveleavesleft

Strazdas wrote: »

Why is everyone pandering to these red wall Tories? It shows how messed up British politics is that nobody dare say anything for fear of offending these charmers and as a consequence have to play along with their bigotry / xenophobia.

Been wondering lately if the defeat of Remain & the Peoples Vote idea may have similar consequences as the miners strike (much less heroic & romantic of course!)

Just thinking that, that defeat of an old style Industrial left & the rise of a professional middle class left may be playing out again in different ways. New Labour famously relied on the defeated traditional base whilst finding the centre between right wing economics & left wing social stuff. Now over time this repulsed much of the base & decline set in. Fascinatingly New Labour didn't mind this, to paraphrase Mandelson "F*%k them, they have nowhere else to go":D

Perhaps now the Labour will begin tilting towards more reactionary views as they rely on the defeated Remain middle class base who in a Mandelsonian way will just have to lump it.

sondagefaux

fiveleavesleft wrote: »

Been wondering lately if the defeat of Remain & the Peoples Vote idea may have similar consequences as the miners strike (much less heroic & romantic of course!)

Just thinking that, that defeat of an old style Industrial left & the rise of a professional middle class left may be playing out again in different ways. New Labour famously relied on the defeated traditional base whilst finding the centre between right wing economics & left wing social stuff. Now over time this repulsed much of the base & decline set in. Fascinatingly New Labour didn't mind this, to paraphrase Mandelson "F*%k them, they have nowhere else to go":D

Perhaps now the Labour will begin tilting towards more reactionary views as they rely on the defeated Remain middle class base who in a Mandelsonian way will just have to lump it.

I think saying '**** you, you've nowhere else to go' to middle-class people is likely to generate a much bigger backlash than when New Labour did it to Labour's traditional base.

If there's one thing the English middle-class are good at, it's looking out for their own interests.

Wesekn.

3 pieces of paperwork required for fish exports , they've stopped fishing atm in places

Manufacturing representative on radio4 more upbeat about movement of goods

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Why is everyone pandering to these red wall Tories? It shows how messed up British politics is that nobody dare say anything for fear of offending these charmers and as a consequence have to play along with their bigotry / xenophobia.

Because Labour needs their votes. Doubly so given that Scotland has flipped almost completely to the SNP. A Labour win without Scotland is dicey, one without the red wall is a fantasy.