Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

But there is nothing to win right now by giving the Tories exactly what they want when they need the focus off of their own Brexit deal. They would have loved nothing more than Daily Mail headlines about Starmer already plotting to overturn Brexit, instead of the stories about the deal Johnson agreed.

If the last 24 hours of this thread could be considered representative, then it's "mission accomplished" for the Tories - a vague reference to Euratom, and that's it as far as Brexit is concerned; the rest is "UK politics, Tory vs. Labour [LibDems, never 'eard o' them]"

The same goes for the media in general. Yes, we on this thread are finding tweets and industry-specific examples of how Brexit is bad for Britain, but the mainstream media has reverted to Covid "crisis/back to normal" stories and The Trumplandia Saga.

In that sense, Johnson-Gove-Cummings got it right: no extension to the transition period, go for no deal (ish) at the quietest time of the year, take advantage of the Covid timings (especially vaccine roll-out) and hope that the Brexit Big Bang is sufficiently unimpressive to not last past the first fortnight.

From now on, it's going to be a slow trickle of reports of supply line disruptions, job losses, relocations, "Brits need not apply" stories and the like - rarely anything to warrant a place in the top-of-the-hour headlines unless it's a particularly slow news day. And yes, in two/three/four years time, the economic data will show that GB has suffered as a result of Brexit - so what? Who cares about economic data anyway when you know in your gut that Britain is a Great Sovereign Nation?

So I reckon the next four months in the UK will be dominated by domestic politics as usual - Tories being Tories, Labour being Labour, and Brexit being a distant memory ... except in Scotland.

Leroy42

Except in Scotland.

That is where their plan starts to fall apart. I think Scotland is going to be a massive, and most easily digested, outcome of Brexit.

I agree that most other issues will be lost in technicalities and is quite frankly boring to most people.

'So what that a truck driver needs 3 forms and a 3 day wait, not no problem'. Just plan better I suppose.

But Scotland, and its potential to split the Union, well that is easy to understand.

Wesekn.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Except in Scotland.

That is where their plan starts to fall apart. I think Scotland is going to be a massive, and most easily digested, outcome of Brexit.

I agree that most other issues will be lost in technicalities and is quite frankly boring to most people.

'So what that a truck driver needs 3 forms and a 3 day wait, not no problem'. Just plan better I suppose.

But Scotland, and its potential to split the Union, well that is easy to understand.

Can't blame them for wanting out of the union

On the fish deliveries they quoted something like £100 delivery costing 30 extra with the paperwork

FrancieBrady

No expert in the internal wranglings of UK political parties but I see Tony Blair in one of the Sunday's interested in a De Gualle (newspaper's words I think) style comeback in Labour.
What are the chances of that and would it have any effect on things? A more focused (on rejoining EU) Labour maybe?

Wesekn.

Is NI going to end up as a hub for goods moving between UK-ROI

Or is that all precluded in the deal

Seth Brundle

Wesekn. wrote: »

Can't blame them for wanting out of the union

On the fish deliveries they quoted something like £100 delivery costing 30 extra with the paperwork

So why was the fishing industry so pro-Brexit as increased costs were inevitable?
Did they not think this might be an issue and, if not, why?

Peregrinus

Wesekn. wrote: »

Is NI going to end up as a hub for goods moving between UK-ROI

Or is that all precluded in the deal

It's not precluded, but it offers no particular advantages. It won't be any easier to ship goods GB-NI for onward transmission to RoI than it will to shop the goods GB -RoI directly.

Wesekn.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So why was the fishing industry so pro-Brexit as increased costs were inevitable?
Did they not think this might be an issue and, if not, why?

My basic understanding is they expected a better deal than they got

Leaving aside the paperwork

Peregrinus

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So why was the fishing industry so pro-Brexit as increased costs were inevitable?
Did they not think this might be an issue and, if not, why?

They weren't as pro-Brexit as is often made out. Prior to the referendum the major fishing representative bodies were fairly neutral on the issue - not that they weren't dissatisfied with the status quo, but they were aware of the dangers as well as the opportunities that Brexit could present for the UK fishing industry. And there were certainly significant parts of the British fishing industry - particularly inshore fisheries and freshwater fisheries - for whom Brexit presented very real threats and really no upside.

It was the likes of Farage posturing about fisheries, and posing the defender of the British fisherman, that created the impression that the industry as a whole was pro-Brexit.

Wesekn. wrote: »

My basic understanding is they expected a better deal than they got

Leaving aside the paperwork

They might have hoped for a better deal than they got, but it was never a particularly realistic hope. Once the UK decided on hard Brexit, that always meant significant new barriers to trade with the EU, and for an industry that exported most of its (extremely perishable) product to the EU that was going to be bad. I think some hoped to offset this downside with increased rights in UK fishing grounds, but that doesn't really work; if you lose your market for the fish you're currently catching, the opportunity to catch more fish that you can't sell isn't really much consolation.

What the industry perhapshould have done, after the referendum, was to press very hard for a soft Brexit, with the UK remaining in the EEA. But that would have meant distancing themselves from Farage and the loony wing of the Tory party, who were the only politicians even pretending to take them seriously. (And they were, indeed, only pretending to.)

Padre_Pio

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So why was the fishing industry so pro-Brexit as increased costs were inevitable?
Did they not think this might be an issue and, if not, why?

I believe they expected the same ease of trade with greater control over waters.
They got more trade barriers and greater control over waters.

Now, if Scotland leaves, they'll get more trade barriers and less control over waters.

Buut, I don't think the fishing industry was necessarily pro-Brexit, the general public pushed the fishing industry as a symbol of Britain's control over her own resources.

murphaph

Enzokk wrote: »

Because that is the way for Labour to win with FPTP. Femi posted an interesting strategy to get a new voting system in, but it would mean working with other parties. While it would men no more Tory majorities, it would also mean no more Labour majority governments. Some people will not be able to give this up in Labour so I don't see either big party ever agreeing to voting reform.

I agree and that's how it's played out so far but with Scottish independence looming in the horizon, the Labour party better get used to perpetual opposition in the rUK parliament if they don't cop on and move to replace FPTP with something proportional.

If Wales leaves it's completely game over for Labour under FPTP. Act now (well if they get another chance in a few years) while Labour + Lib Dem + SNP + Plaid have some chance of bringing in PR with their numbers in Westminster or wait until the other nations secede from the UK and Labour are hopelessly outnumbered by the Tories indefinitely in a future England only parliament.

Decisions, decisions...

BlitzKrieg

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So why was the fishing industry so pro-Brexit as increased costs were inevitable?
Did they not think this might be an issue and, if not, why?

I touched on this months ago:

I know it's not asked seriously but to answer why Fishing is the market that everything 'hinges' on the answer is simply that it's the exception that proves the rule.

Under EU law there are clear lines on what the EU can directly interfere on and what they cant.

And a lot of what the UKIP and Brexit bollocks tends to cry about was stuff that firmly fell at the uk's feet but the EU was being blamed (immigration, red tape etc etc)

But fishing is surprisingly the only area that legally the EU did hold the power. It's the one area outside of the eurozone management and single market that the EU has the power to take complete control on without any involvement of the national governments.

So its really the only 'battlefield' that can be fought in the eyes of Brexit. Every other fight is fake, this is the only genuine part of the british economy and society that the EU took complete control of.

But Brexit needs to win it, because winning fishing allows them to pretend they won all the fake battles as well. If the UK 'loses' fishing then the illusion that they won in any other aspect is broken

It's to do with the common fisheries policy being the only industry that the EU takes complete control over:

Article 3

1. The Union shall have exclusive competence in the following areas:

(a)

customs union;

(b)

the establishing of the competition rules necessary for the functioning of the internal market;

(c)

monetary policy for the Member States whose currency is the euro;

(d)

the conservation of marine biological resources under the common fisheries policy;

(e)

common commercial policy.

2. The Union shall also have exclusive competence for the conclusion of an international agreement when its conclusion is provided for in a legislative act of the Union or is necessary to enable the Union to exercise its internal competence, or in so far as its conclusion may affect common rules or alter their scope.

source: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12016E/TXT&from=EN#d1e1557-1-1

Fr Tod Umptious

Strazdas wrote: »

The system is an obvious disaster. The reason these former Labour supporters love Johnson is that they have identified him as a fellow racist / Islamophobe etc.

Imagine Labour having to rely on people like that for support (a traditionally anti-racist party).

But Labour have relied on people like that for decades.
Hence the term "red wall".

People are coming up with this idea that if Labour could get into power they would magically do away with Brexit.

That ain't going to happen.
The traditional left leaning Labour voter is just as much anti EU as any Tory eurosceptic.

sondagefaux

Wesekn. wrote: »

My basic understanding is they expected a better deal than they got

Leaving aside the paperwork

Greed and stupidity.

Greedy enough to want all non-UK fishermen excluded from UK waters, too stupid to understand that even if they were allowed to catch all the fish, not being able to sell them might be a problem.

Valhallapt

Was just in Dealz, very empty shelves. Common theme is that it’s going to be hard or nearly impossible to organise distribution from the UK to Irish stores. They will either need to open Irish warehouses or leave the market. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out for Asda / sainsburys in NI. Could be an opportunity for a large french operator to buy the shops in Ireland and distribute a lot from France.

Hurrache

Dealz, foodstuffs anyway, is pretty much all UK market stuff isn't it? I'm rarely in it but the times I have been that struck me anyway.

yagan

Hurrache wrote: »

Dealz, foodstuffs anyway, is pretty much all UK market stuff isn't it? I'm rarely in it but the times I have been that struck me anyway.

Dealz is the Irish brand of Poundland.

England is full of such chains, some of them are outlets of larger supermarkets so excess stock can be sold off cheap.

There's loads of them, Pound Island, Pound Paradise, Pound Stretcher although I think Poundworld went bust.

Retr0gamer

Friend in work telling me they were in M&S and lots of empty shelves a few days ago. Also the manager going around taking pictures of the empty shelves.

yagan

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I know someone working there locally and basically they just sitting around waiting for trucks, guess they didn’t prepare for needless paperwork

"but Ireland's part of the UK, innit?" which I heard a lot of when I lived in England.

Valhallapt

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I know someone working there locally and basically they just sitting around waiting for trucks, guess they didn’t prepare for needless paperwork

I’ve seen them unload lorry’s into their shops, it’s a mixed load, some food, some toys some housewares some clothes etc, this is very hard to import these mixed loads, plus they import a good bit from the EU into the UK and they now have to export it again, can’t see them resolving this in the short term.

Sam Russell

Valhallapt wrote: »

I’ve seen them unload lorry’s into their shops, it’s a mixed load, some food, some toys some housewares some clothes etc, this is very hard to import these mixed loads, plus they import a good bit from the EU into the UK and they now have to export it again, can’t see them resolving this in the short term.

It will be resolved by them not bothering with exports - even to NI. Any vet inspections will kill them, plus multiple customs codes will make customs declarations difficult and expensive to use a clearance agent. Low margin merchandise will not be worth it.

I can see our imports from the UK taking a nose dive, but sales to NI will increase.

Hurrache

But as they use UK products anyway, it can't be sold in the EU due to amongst other things, simple labelling issues. Like I said, they just take products from the UK market (such a PG Tips, Typhoo, all sorts of biscuits and confectionary) and sell in Ireland, but legally won't be able to do so anymore, prepacked foods are required to have an EU address on the labelling. So UK addresses on packaging is no longer compliant, but NI is.

This is before complicated matters like vetinary inspections.

Jizique

Hurrache wrote: »

But as they use UK products anyway, it can't be sold in the EU due to amongst other things, simple labelling issues. Like I said, they just take products from the UK market (such a PG Tips, Typhoo, all sorts of biscuits and confectionary) and sell in Ireland, but legally won't be able to do so anymore, prepacked foods are required to have an EU address on the labelling. So UK addresses on packaging is no longer compliant, but NI is.

This is before complicated matters like vetinary inspections.

BBC lunchtime news covering Brits living in Spain who can’t return to the U.K. (mixed marriage) and some of the other issues

BorneTobyWilde

92% of Fishermen in the UK voted to LEAVE EU, and now 100% of fishermen in the UK are crying like lil children as the have no outlet for their catch.
Idiots.
Simpletons won the Leave vote , those in the fishing industry, and car industry ironically. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
To these simpletons it was UK v EU World Cup Final, all cheering on UK. All these low educated people swung the vote to Leave. Now all without a job, or soon to be.

Strazdas

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

[/b]

But Labour have relied on people like that for decades.
Hence the term "red wall".

People are coming up with this idea that if Labour could get into power they would magically do away with Brexit.

That ain't going to happen.
The traditional left leaning Labour voter is just as much anti EU as any Tory eurosceptic.

They appear to share the racism and xenophobia too. Someone was writing recently about the unholy Brexit alliance between middle class Conservatives and working class Labour voters, both united by their dislike of foreigners and immigrants, plus the EU.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

They appear to share the racism and xenophobia too. Someone was writing recently about the unholy Brexit alliance between middle class Conservatives and working class Labour voters, both united by their dislike of foreigners and immigrants, plus the EU.

If you look at the difference between the supporters of soccer clubs - particularly the leading ones, and the supporters for the likes of rugby and cricket. The soccer supporters have to be in cages separating rivals - whether they are both from England or international teams competing.

Soccer as a sport has had a very hard job tackling racism, and they are not winning.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for the SNP running in a few seats south of the border ?

They would have about as much chance of getting elected as a Conservative would in Dublin.


Anyway, with the current government dead set against any further indyref, it will be at least 5-10 years before the subject is raised again.
Don't forget that without the SNP in the HoC, Labour would need a far bigger swing to get into power in an English parliament.

An Ciarraioch

Remarkable live website tracking CCTV cameras on England's M20, the two labelled J11A cover the Channel Tunnel toll roads, which are virtually empty:

https://trafficcameras.uk/m20/

L1011

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for the SNP running in a few seats south of the border ?

The days when there was an IPP MP in Liverpool are over - there's nowhere that would have a concentrated support base for the SNP anywhere outside Scotland.

An Ciarraioch

Berwick upon Tweed or Carlisle could be options if they ever really wanted to fly a political kite.