Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

fiveleavesleft

sondagefaux wrote: »

I think saying '**** you, you've nowhere else to go' to middle-class people is likely to generate a much bigger backlash than when New Labour did it to Labour's traditional base.

If there's one thing the English middle-class are good at, it's looking out for their own interests.

Maybe so but if you were to go back 100 years or 50 & tell those communities with the strength their Trade Union power had that "You guys are finished & you're gonna like it" no one would believe it. Within years they were gone.

You say the middle class will be much a tougher nut but they have just lost Brexit & the gist of this thread over the years has been that they are ones who are going to get screwed.

Will be interesting to watch how anti-Brexit politics develops.

Sam Russell

fiveleavesleft wrote: »

Maybe so but if you were to go back 100 years or 50 & tell those communities with the strength their Trade Union power had that "You guys are finished & you're gonna like it" no one would believe it. Within years they were gone.

You say the middle class will be much a tougher nut but they have just lost Brexit & the gist of this thread over the years has been that they are ones who are going to get screwed.

Will be interesting to watch how anti-Brexit politics develops.

We are in the second week of the UK filling in customs forms and getting goods returned to sender. They will learn, and bear the cost of all the red tape - either by higher costs or lost business.

Remember there was a lot of opposition to new EU regulations coming from the single market requirements, but it was soon forgotten as it became how much it made life.

Roaming charges were the bane of anyone travelling in Europe, and the relief when they vanished, thanks to the EU (and the Tories for those in the UK). We will see what the attitude will be when they inevitably make a return.

Early days yet. No trucks on the M20 is not a good sign, anymore than truck parked up on the hard shoulder. Both signify no trade.

BonnieSituation

Deleted User wrote: »

They would have about as much chance of getting elected as a Conservative would in Dublin.


Anyway, with the current government dead set against any further indyref, it will be at least 5-10 years before the subject is raised again.
Don't forget that without the SNP in the HoC, Labour would need a far bigger swing to get into power in an English parliament.

What?

Have I missed something? SNP chat around independence isn't going anywhere.

sondagefaux

Valhallapt wrote: »

Was just in Dealz, very empty shelves. Common theme is that it’s going to be hard or nearly impossible to organise distribution from the UK to Irish stores. They will either need to open Irish warehouses or leave the market. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out for Asda / sainsburys in NI. Could be an opportunity for a large french operator to buy the shops in Ireland and distribute a lot from France.

Or Dunnes and Supervalu to buy out Asda/Sainsbury's branches in NI.

ambro25

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What?

Have I missed something? SNP chat around independence isn't going anywhere.

I seem to recall that Scotland is having a GE in 4 months' time, so I would expect renewed Indy Ref noises far, far sooner than "5 to 10 years' time"

BonnieSituation

ambro25 wrote: »

I seem to recall that Scotland is having a GE in 4 months' time, so I would expect renewed Indy Ref noises far, far sooner than "5 to 10 years' time"

Well Parliamentary elections in May... But yes, quite an odd pronouncement really?

One day those Parliamentary elections will be a GE!

An Ciarraioch

Far from an expert on the fish industry, but £4 for a box of cod seems remarkable, given the price that a single fish will generally make in your average shop:

https://twitter.com/jrclarkbf800/status/1348619652113571842

sondagefaux

fiveleavesleft wrote: »

Maybe so but if you were to go back 100 years or 50 & tell those communities with the strength their Trade Union power had that "You guys are finished & you're gonna like it" no one would believe it. Within years they were gone.

You say the middle class will be much a tougher nut but they have just lost Brexit & the gist of this thread over the years has been that they are ones who are going to get screwed.

Will be interesting to watch how anti-Brexit politics develops.

You assume that there's one middle class with one point of view about Brexit.

Retired people, middle class included, voted heavily for Brexit, mainly because they"re barely going to be affected even if their kids and grand kids are screwed over. They also vote Tory overwhelmingly, and aren't the middle class viters that Labour can't afford to alienate.

The middle class voters that Labour can't afford to lose are still of working age, are mainly anti-Brexit and are people who are going to notice the negative real-world effects of loss of freedom of movememt amd Erasmus etc, and be mightily pissed off about it.

They lost on Brexit? So did Scottish independence supporters who mostly support EU membership and who've lost in two referendums, the Scottish independence referendum and the Brexit referendum.

Has that demoralised them or made them forget about Scottish independence? No and no.

Labour's thinking is that Brexit won't be as big an issue for anti-Brexit voters in 2024 and that they won't have any other party to vote for anyway.

That kind of thinking didn't exactly work out well for them in Scotland where they just have one MP, having been routed by the SNP in 2015 and 2019.

Labour's assumption that anti-Brexit voters in England and Wales have nowhere to go is a huge gamble.

Plaid Cymru is a viable alternative in Wales and Labour can't just assume that motivated anti-Brexit voters in England will stick with them if they keep giving the impression that Labour is yet another Leave party.

Padre_Pio

Oooh, burn :eek::eek:

https://twitter.com/Alberto___x/status/1348652677316694016

Wesekn.

yagan wrote: »

Pound Island, Pound Paradise, Pound Stretcher although I think Poundworld went bust.

Poundland still going strong lol

Datacore

sondagefaux wrote: »

Or Dunnes and Supervalu to buy out Asda/Sainsbury's branches in NI.

There was an inevitability to a need to reorganise and adapt.

Dunnes is an obvious purchaser for those stores, but so is Tesco and SuperValu could literally plug them in with SuperValu at Sainsbury’s as it’s just a symbol group.

In a lot of cases it may just be a logistics systems tweak to allow goods to be direct imported into the Irish and EU market, skipping the U.K.

There’s a huge opportunity for Irish or international logistics companies to offer solutions to allow them to warehouse and supply stores within Ireland or on the continent.

sondagefaux

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They would have about as much chance of getting elected as a Conservative would in Dublin.


Anyway, with the current government dead set against any further indyref, it will be at least 5-10 years before the subject is raised again.
Don't forget that without the SNP in the HoC, Labour would need a far bigger swing to get into power in an English parliament.

Irish Home Rule MPs were elected for several English constituencies.

I'd imagine a Conservative candidate would do quite well in certain parts of Dublin...

As for the SNP and putting independence on hold, there's an election for the Scottish Parliament scheduled for May which is set to be a proxy referendum on independence.

Johnson can continue to tell Scottish people to get stuffed when it comes to an independence referendum and risk support for it going into the 60s, or he can agree for one to be held this year or next year while support is still in the low 50s, and hope that issues raised in the campaign, like what currency an independent Scotland would use, that it would be much more difficult to trade with England and Wales etc, will be enough to swing the vote against independence.

The longer Johnson tells Scots they can't have an independence referendum, the more support for independence will increase.

His only chance to convince a majority of Scots to stay in the UK is to grant a referendum later this year or next year along with massively increased devolved powers for Scotland.

So don't assume there won't be an independence referendum until 4 or 5 years from now at the earliest just because there's no Westminster general election until 2024.

The outcome of the Scottish Parliament elections in May and Johnson's reaction to them will be a very important factor.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What?

Have I missed something? SNP chat around independence isn't going anywhere.

I'm referring to the possibility of another indyref, until then, it's only talk.

sondagefaux

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm referring to the possibility of another indyref, until then, it's only talk.

The longer Johnson refuses one, the more likely that that it'll be a majority for independence when it's held.

rock22

The Conservatives opposed a new Scottish independence referendu. So soes the Labour party. So Johnson will come under no real pressure in Westminster to grant one.

Lemming

sondagefaux wrote: »

The longer Johnson tells Scots they can't have an independence referendum, the more support for independence will increase.

His only chance to convince a majority of Scots to stay in the UK is to grant a referendum later this year or next year along with massively increased devolved powers for Scotland.

He'll already be fighting a losing battle; first hurdle to fight is the whole "we committed to further devolution powers after the last referendum and, well, we never followed through with those ..." historical foot-note. So what can they come back with to that accusation? That they will _totally_ sign off on devolution powers that they were supposed to have done some five years ago?

The Tories have made any subsequent referendum outcome a near virtual certainty between their broken promises from the last legally binding referendum and their treatment of Scotland over all things Brexit related since then. At this point in time, the Tories have so thoroughly poisoned the well that the SNP could quite probably run an advert featuring an inanimate carbon rod and it would be better received than any mumbling lies and nonsense that Johnson's flapping gums f@rt out.

sondagefaux

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

92% of Fishermen in the UK voted to LEAVE EU, and now 100% of fishermen in the UK are crying like lil children as the have no outlet for their catch.
Idiots.
Simpletons won the Leave vote , those in the fishing industry, and car industry ironically. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
To these simpletons it was UK v EU World Cup Final, all cheering on UK. All these low educated people swung the vote to Leave. Now all without a job, or soon to be.

No wonder the price of fish is collapsing.

About 80% of the UK's catch of fish is exported to the EU.

If it can't be sold, the prices will collapse.

Michael M. @vivamjm
"DFDS has cancelled all groupage fish transport for the foreseeable future"

https://mobile.twitter.com/vivamjm/status/1348585567412477953

DFDS is a ferry company. They won't take trucks carrying mixed consignments of different fish (groupage) any more because British fish merchants can't cope with the need for species-specific fish catch certificates and so mixed loads of British fish are likely to be refused entry on arrival to the EU.

BonnieSituation

rock22 wrote: »

The Conservatives opposed a new Scottish independence referendu. So soes the Labour party. So Johnson will come under no real pressure in Westminster to grant one.

I don't think you really get nuance.

Events dear boy, events!

eire4

ambro25 wrote: »

I seem to recall that Scotland is having a GE in 4 months' time, so I would expect renewed Indy Ref noises far, far sooner than "5 to 10 years' time"

The SNP are all but running their campaign on the the basis that vote for the SNP and your voting for the holding of a second independence referendum and judging by the latest polls which had the yes vote at 58% the more the Tories and London say no the higher the support for independence in Scotland. As the realities of brexit bite over the next few months in the leadup to the May vote I can easily see that yes number getting over 60% as things seem to be going in that direction.

sondagefaux

Sammy Wilson not enjoying the outcome of Brexit. Tough ****e Sammy, should have thought of that before campaigning for hard Brexit.

Seriously, is there a more hopeless political party than the DUP?


https://mobile.twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1348666661012983808

eire4

sondagefaux wrote: »

Sammy Wilson not enjoying the outcome of Brexit. Tough ****e Sammy, should have thought of that before campaigning for hard Brexit.

Seriously, is there a more hopeless political party than the DUP?


https://mobile.twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1348666661012983808

Without a doubt the worst political party on the island of Ireland. Anybody who voted for them in the last UK election really has to put it mildly shot themselves in the foot.

Datacore

sondagefaux wrote: »

Sammy Wilson not enjoying the outcome of Brexit. Tough ****e Sammy, should have thought of that before campaigning for hard Brexit.

Seriously, is there a more hopeless political party than the DUP?

Northern Ireland doesn’t vote Tory or Labour. It doesn’t really participate in British politics, other than as a troll when the numbers were right to basically try and bully Theresa May. If the DUP think the Tories like them, they’re deluded. The more progressive and “centrist” Tories likely see them a socially regressive far right fringe and the English nationalist wing of the Tories sees them as foreign or at best weird provincials.

They completely overplayed their hand and sold out their electorate on the basis of a sectarian chip on their shoulder.

Between jumping on the Tory bandwagon and bizarrely idolising Donald Trump, they’ve backed all the wrong horses.

Ultimately the politics of “hate of other” makes you no friends and extreme nationalists have interests, not friends. That’s a lesson the DUP is learning the hard way.

sondagefaux

sondagefaux wrote: »

Sammy Wilson not enjoying the outcome of Brexit. Tough ****e Sammy, should have thought of that before campaigning for hard Brexit.

Seriously, is there a more hopeless political party than the DUP?


https://mobile.twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1348666661012983808

The video clip in the tweet above shows Sammy Wilson of the DUP whinging about empty shelves in the NI branches of British supermarket chains.

The video clip in the tweet below shows Sammy Wilson of the DUP shouting 'go to the chippy!' when Ian Blackford of the SNP warns of Brexit-induced food shortages.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1090290876448997377

Hurrache

sondagefaux wrote: »

Sammy Wilson not enjoying the outcome of Brexit. Tough ****e Sammy, should have thought of that before campaigning for hard Brexit.

Seriously, is there a more hopeless political party than the DUP?


https://mobile.twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1348666661012983808

Can't Sammy tell people to go to the chippy, like he did before, when the prospect of empty shelves were raised?
edit, beaten to it.

BorneTobyWilde

If it wasn't for Covid the collapsing UK economy would be front and center. They really are the North Korea of Europe now .
Behind the scenes panic must be setting in. Putting tariffs on Bananas to raise some needed money is a bad sign of things to come.

BonnieSituation

Datacore wrote: »

Northern Ireland doesn’t vote Tory or Labour. It doesn’t really participate in British politics, other than as a troll when the numbers were right to basically try and bully Theresa May. If the DUP think the Tories like them, they’re deluded. The more progressive and “centrist” Tories likely see them a socially regressive far right fringe and the English nationalist wing of the Tories sees them as foreign or at best weird provincials.

They completely overplayed their hand and sold out their electorate on the basis of a sectarian chip on their shoulder.

Between jumping on the Tory bandwagon and bizarrely idolising Donald Trump, they’ve backed all the wrong horses.

To paraphrase the famous Abba Eban quote: "The DUP never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity"

Thargor

Hurrache wrote: »

Can't Sammy tell people to go to the chippy, like he did before, when the prospect of empty shelves were raised?
edit, beaten to it.

sondagefaux wrote: »

The video clip in the tweet above shows Sammy Wilson of the DUP whinging about empty shelves in the NI branches of British supermarket chains.

The video clip in the tweet below shows Sammy Wilson of the DUP shouting 'go to the chippy!' when Ian Blackford of the SNP warns of Brexit-induced food shortages.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1090290876448997377

How sweet would it have been if they were all in the house together instead of Skype? Someone would have said it for sure, it would have been perfection. He's getting roasted on Twitter though.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

Anyway, with the current government dead set against any further indyref, it will be at least 5-10 years before the subject is raised again.

There was an article linked on this thread (I think) in the latter half of last year that explained how the elections in May could be run in Scotland on the basis of a mandate for independence, and if the [SNP] were to achieve a thumping majority, they would have the legal basis to declare independence without seeking Westminster's approval.

Those elections in May will coincide with a hell of a lot of fishermen coming to the end of their cash reserves, and a hell of a lot of seed potato exporters having to decide whether or not to plant crops for the year ahead, and they will know that it was Boris Johnson's Brexit that put them in that situation. No doubt there will be many other groups across the population who begin to feel the full effect of Brexit as the weather warms up and Covid dies down.

While it's probably still a bit early for Brexit to have wreaked as much havoc on the Scottish economy as it has the potential to do, I would also say that these elections are probably the perfect time for the SNP to run a campaign on the back of seeking a formal mandate for (unilaterally declaring) independence. And if the Tories run against that, well ... :P

yagan

CelticRambler wrote: »

There was an article linked on this thread (I think) in the latter half of last year that explained how the elections in May could be run in Scotland on the basis of a mandate for independence, and if the [SNP] were to achieve a thumping majority, they would have the legal basis to declare independence without seeking Westminster's approval.

Those elections in May will coincide with a hell of a lot of fishermen coming to the end of their cash reserves, and a hell of a lot of seed potato exporters having to decide whether or not to plant crops for the year ahead, and they will know that it was Boris Johnson's Brexit that put them in that situation. No doubt there will be many other groups across the population who begin to feel the full effect of Brexit as the weather warms up and Covid dies down.

While it's probably still a bit early for Brexit to have wreaked as much havoc on the Scottish economy as it has the potential to do, I would also say that these elections are probably the perfect time for the SNP to run a campaign on the back of seeking a formal mandate for (unilaterally declaring) independence. And if the Tories run against that, well ... :P

I think the argument that Scotland voluntarily entered a union with England means it can as easily withdraw without affecting other issues such as head of state etc..

It could assert for the same alignment as Northern Ireland and eventually EU membership in their right.

Valhallapt

CelticRambler wrote: »

There was an article linked on this thread (I think) in the latter half of last year that explained how the elections in May could be run in Scotland on the basis of a mandate for independence, and if the [SNP] were to achieve a thumping majority, they would have the legal basis to declare independence without seeking Westminster's approval.

Those elections in May will coincide with a hell of a lot of fishermen coming to the end of their cash reserves, and a hell of a lot of seed potato exporters having to decide whether or not to plant crops for the year ahead, and they will know that it was Boris Johnson's Brexit that put them in that situation. No doubt there will be many other groups across the population who begin to feel the full effect of Brexit as the weather warms up and Covid dies down.

While it's probably still a bit early for Brexit to have wreaked as much havoc on the Scottish economy as it has the potential to do, I would also say that these elections are probably the perfect time for the SNP to run a campaign on the back of seeking a formal mandate for (unilaterally declaring) independence. And if the Tories run against that, well ... :P

Here it is https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/first-d%C3%A1il-could-be-template-for-scottish-independence-says-mp-1.4453639

Basically the SNP are saying it was good enough for SF to get a thumping majority in 1918, then it’s good enough for us now.