Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Padre_Pio

CelticRambler wrote: »

I would also say that these elections are probably the perfect time for the SNP to run a campaign on the back of seeking a formal mandate for (unilaterally declaring) independence. And if the Tories run against that, well ... :P

IF (big IF) Britain can't figure out a way to sort out their EU trade in the next 6 months, and IF Scotland votred for independence, and IF they did well in the 6 months after that, then I wonder how long NI would continue to be half in, half out of the EU.

Akrasia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I get what you're saying but I think he just wants to avoid being seen as wanting to alter the thing before it's had a fair go in the eyes of the public. If people are still raging about fish this time next year, he can always go for it then but for now it needs to be given a fair chance.

Yep, The Tories are the party of 'Blame everyone else for everything that goes wrong'

They're already gonna blame the EU for sabbotaging brexit, Starmer wants to be squeeky clean so it will be more difficult for the Tories to blame Labour too

He'll not vote against the implementation of the brexit deal, he'll not rally opposition to an independent great Britain. He will point out shortcomings in the deal where he sees them, but I don't think he is going to be be doing anything that can be spun by Johnson as Labour being directly responsible for the failure of the Brexit adventure

eire4

Valhallapt wrote: »

Here it is https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/first-d%C3%A1il-could-be-template-for-scottish-independence-says-mp-1.4453639

Basically the SNP are saying it was good enough for SF to get a thumping majority in 1918, then it’s good enough for us now.

Makes sense as a possible alternative if London keeps just saying no to another referendum. It certainly would be a bold move that would bring things to a head very quickly that is for sure.
It is clear the SNP will win the most seats in the Scottish assembly election come May but how big a majority they win I think will play a key role in how aggressive they can and will be in terms of moves to push for/force a second independence referendum.

Lemming

Whilst the SNP may have a point with their argument about majorities; there were other factors at play that allowed for Ireland to cede from the British empire. I don't think that the SNP (or anyone else) have the balls to unilaterally cede nor would they have enough wide spread popular support to do so at present. Whilst fishermen, seed potato farmers, and their attendant economic chains will all stack up as negatives to remaining in the UK, I think we'll need to be seeing a lot more steps to lead the populace in support of such a move; something like the economic collapse that occurred with the fall of the Soviet Union for example. The Scottish population will need to feel like they have nothing to lose; unfortunately that means taking a brutal beating first, economically speaking.

sondagefaux

CelticRambler wrote: »

There was an article linked on this thread (I think) in the latter half of last year that explained how the elections in May could be run in Scotland on the basis of a mandate for independence, and if the [SNP] were to achieve a thumping majority, they would have the legal basis to declare independence without seeking Westminster's approval.

Those elections in May will coincide with a hell of a lot of fishermen coming to the end of their cash reserves, and a hell of a lot of seed potato exporters having to decide whether or not to plant crops for the year ahead, and they will know that it was Boris Johnson's Brexit that put them in that situation. No doubt there will be many other groups across the population who begin to feel the full effect of Brexit as the weather warms up and Covid dies down.

While it's probably still a bit early for Brexit to have wreaked as much havoc on the Scottish economy as it has the potential to do, I would also say that these elections are probably the perfect time for the SNP to run a campaign on the back of seeking a formal mandate for (unilaterally declaring) independence. And if the Tories run against that, well ... :P

As an added bonus, Farage, about as popular in Scotland as dogshít sandwiches, is launching his new political party in Scotland.

Farage sticking his beak into Scottish politics is an excellent way to boost support for independence.

An Ciarraioch

Spain effectively gains a condominium role in Gibraltar, as the new treaty's terms are detailed:

https://english.elpais.com/brexit/2021-01-11/deal-between-spain-and-uk-plans-to-eliminate-gibraltar-border-checkpoint.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

sondagefaux

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Spain effectively gains a condominium role in Gibraltar, as the new treaty's terms are detailed:

https://english.elpais.com/brexit/2021-01-11/deal-between-spain-and-uk-plans-to-eliminate-gibraltar-border-checkpoint.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Boris Johnson has said this treaty respects Gibraltar's 'British sovereignty'.

That being the case, why couldn't the UK have remained part of the Single Market and have a customs union with the EU?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: I've moved a few posts to the Scottish Independence thread where they may be better suited.

sondagefaux

RobMc59 wrote: »

If NI is having the best of both worlds why on earth would it want to change the status quo?It`s got nothing to do with which class you are,it`s common sense.

This February 2020 poll showed that 56% of people in the ABC1 socio-economic groups would vote for a united Ireland compared to an average of 45.4% of all voters.

As I said, the more prosperous Northern Ireland becomes, the more likely there's going to be a majority in favour of a united Ireland.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

If NI is having the best of both worlds why on earth would it want to change the status quo?It`s got nothing to do with which class you are,it`s common sense.

Because it isn't really having the best of both worlds. It's being significantly adversely affected by Brexit and, while this is alleviated somewhat by the arrangements in the NI Protocol, they don't give NI the full benefits it would get from continued EU membership.

It's not so much "the best of both worlds" as "neither one thing nor the other".

Peregrinus

[Deleted]

Slideways

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/11/dutch-officials-seize-ham-sandwiches-from-british-drivers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


Surely this borders on pettiness. I take great joy from seeing what the uk has done to itself but taking a truckies lunch off them is a bit too Jobsworth for me

dogbert27

Slideways wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/11/dutch-officials-seize-ham-sandwiches-from-british-drivers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


Surely this borders on pettiness. I take great joy from seeing what the uk has done to itself but taking a truckies lunch off them is a bit too Jobsworth for me

I don't think it's petty. What the UK don't seem to realise is that EU follow rules in black and white.

“you are no longer allowed to bring certain foods to Europe, like meat, fruit, vegetables, fish, that kind of stuff.”

Dutch customs also posted a photograph of foodstuffs ranging from breakfast cereals to oranges that officials had confiscated in the ferry terminal, adding: “Since 1 January, you can’t just bring more food from the UK.”

The customs service added: “So prepare yourself if you travel to the Netherlands from the UK and spread the word. This is how we prevent food waste and together ensure that the controls are speeded up.”


For example if you looked at one of the tv shows of Australian airport border security they are constantly confiscating food stuffs of people mainly traveling from Asia and handing out fines.

The driver could have received a fine too not just have his sandwich confiscated.

As the custom officer said, welcome to Brexit. This is the new reality for UK citizens in Europe. They are the ones who voted for this, the custom officer is just following through on the will of the UK people and respecting their sovereignty.

timetogo1

Slideways wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/11/dutch-officials-seize-ham-sandwiches-from-british-drivers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


Surely this borders on pettiness. I take great joy from seeing what the uk has done to itself but taking a truckies lunch off them is a bit too Jobsworth for me

They knew what they were voting for apparently. These are not new rules.

https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/travel/carry/meat-dairy-animal/index_en.htm

"If you travel to the EU from a non-EU country, you are not allowed to bring any meat or dairy products with you. You can however bring a limited quantity of fruit and vegetables as well as eggs, egg products and honey. "

Why would you think the rules shouldn't apply to people from the UK?

Being in the EU gives loads of little benefits like free movement with little hassle. It's not being a jobsworth to not extend those benefits to third countries.

Peregrinus

Slideways wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/11/dutch-officials-seize-ham-sandwiches-from-british-drivers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


Surely this borders on pettiness. I take great joy from seeing what the uk has done to itself but taking a truckies lunch off them is a bit too Jobsworth for me

I think Dmitri Grozoubinski has it covered.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

If NI is having the best of both worlds why on earth would it want to change the status quo?It`s got nothing to do with which class you are,it`s common sense.

Because it isn't having the best of both worlds. From the Irish Examiner:

Mr Leheny said one told him they had spent £24,000 (€26,750) bringing empty lorries from Great Britain due to less produce being transported to Northern Ireland.

“Exports are doing well. NI produce is hitting the shelves of supermarkets across GB,” he told the PA news agency.

“However that’s creating a problem because hundreds of lorries are leaving NI every day for England, but because the suppliers in GB have these formalities to comply with to send their goods to Northern Ireland, a lot of them have either suspended or are delaying loads.

“So then they are having to ship loads back to Northern Ireland empty at their own expense, that’s a terrible hit for any haulier, it’s burning money, because there are driver wages, fuel and ferry costs.

Seamless, two-way trade is good for both parties, a point that was lost on the Brexiters (including the DUP) way back in the early days of the referendum. Brexit was promoted on being Great for Britain, and the rest of the world can feck off; and every attempt by anyone with a modicum of common sense who tried to argue the opposite was branded an infidel.

Now we're seeing that one-sided trade comes with serious logistical implications, and (quelle surprise :rolleyes: ) if you live on an island, messed up logistics tend to mess up the downstream parts of whatever sector depends on them.

Hurrache

Slideways wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/11/dutch-officials-seize-ham-sandwiches-from-british-drivers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


Surely this borders on pettiness. I take great joy from seeing what the uk has done to itself but taking a truckies lunch off them is a bit too Jobsworth for me

Rules are rules, nothing petty about it. Same happens when you go to other places around the world.

ArmaniJeanss

Hurrache wrote: »

Rules are rules, nothing petty about it. Same happens when you go to other places around the world.

I wouldn't be an international jet-setter by any means, but coming back from a handful of trips to Asia or USA I've never seen those rules applied at Dublin airport. Wasn't even aware of them to be honest.
Clearly from timetogo1's post above it is an actual rule though.

A thought : Going forward should Dublin/Rosslare officials also be doing these checks/confiscations on people coming back from the UK?

Padre_Pio

Hurrache wrote: »

Rules are rules, nothing petty about it. Same happens when you go to other places around the world.

I got questioned on my Boots meal deal going through US preclearance in Dublin. It was a ploughmans sandwich, so it was ok

dogbert27

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I wouldn't be an international jet-setter by any means, but coming back from a handful of trips to Asia or USA I've never seen those rules applied at Dublin airport. Wasn't even aware of them to be honest.
Clearly from timetogo1's post above it is an actual rule though.

A thought : Going forward should Dublin/Rosslare officials also be doing these checks/confiscations on people coming back from the UK?

Did you have homemade sandwiches wrapped in tinfoil in your bag?

As the example I gave they mostly detect these in suitcases at security at airports. If you had nothing in your suitcase it wouldn't have been checked.

I had a lighter in a suitcase by accident once and it was taken out with a note to say my suitcase had been inspected

View

sondagefaux wrote: »

This February 2020 poll showed that 56% of people in the ABC1 socio-economic groups would vote for a united Ireland compared to an average of 45.4% of all voters.

As I said, the more prosperous Northern Ireland becomes, the more likely there's going to be a majority in favour of a united Ireland.

Opinion polls can be a poor guide as to how people will actually vote on a referendum day.

Polls here at the start of the Nice I and Lisbon I referenda showed the Yes side having significant margins over the No side, yet both referenda were lost after a blizzard of misinformation, much of it recycled from previous referenda (so there is no excuse for people not knowing that it was BS).

Likewise, in the U.K. 2016 referendum, in the first two weeks of the campaign, when the focus was largely on economics, polls showed the Remain side in the lead, only for that to disappear as soon as the Leave side played the Immigration card in the last two weeks.

As such, isolated opinion polls cannot be regarded as being indicative of anything, particularly if they show majority support for a position confined to one social group but not another as that can’t be classified as “broad support” for the position.

Hurrache

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I got questioned on my Boots meal deal going through US preclearance in Dublin. It was a ploughmans sandwich, so it was ok

I've wolfed down a breakfast roll that I brought from home early one morning at the stairs into it when I suddenly remembered I risked having it taken from me.

dogbert27 wrote: »

I had a lighter in a suitcase by accident once and it was taken out with a note to say my suitcase had been inspected

I've had that before, the note right at the bottom of the case under everything. I had a bunch of manuals and notes so I guess maybe that's what flagged it for checking.

FrancieBrady

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I wouldn't be an international jet-setter by any means, but coming back from a handful of trips to Asia or USA I've never seen those rules applied at Dublin airport. Wasn't even aware of them to be honest.
Clearly from timetogo1's post above it is an actual rule though.

A thought : Going forward should Dublin/Rosslare officials also be doing these checks/confiscations on people coming back from the UK?

Try getting into Australia with food from Ireland in your bag...I thought I was going to be arrested for having some special dietary food on me when entering once.

View

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I wouldn't be an international jet-setter by any means, but coming back from a handful of trips to Asia or USA I've never seen those rules applied at Dublin airport. Wasn't even aware of them to be honest.
Clearly from timetogo1's post above it is an actual rule though.

A thought : Going forward should Dublin/Rosslare officials also be doing these checks/confiscations on people coming back from the UK?

Yes the officials should be doing confiscations in accordance with EU rules. Failing to do them would not be defensible if (when) it ends up before the CJEU.

timetogo1

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I wouldn't be an international jet-setter by any means, but coming back from a handful of trips to Asia or USA I've never seen those rules applied at Dublin airport. Wasn't even aware of them to be honest.
Clearly from timetogo1's post above it is an actual rule though.

A thought : Going forward should Dublin/Rosslare officials also be doing these checks/confiscations on people coming back from the UK?

The distance is a factor I'd imagine. I wouldn't remember having it as an issue for those countries either. But on an 8 hour flight or longer, the wrapped up sambos would be long eaten(or in the bin).
You have to declare personal food brought into the US and meat is prohibited.
https://help.cbp.gov/s/article/Article-3619?language=en_US#:~:text=Food%20products%20should%20be%20commercially,them%20into%20the%20United%20States.

It's probably just an issue now as the UK is only an hour or so from many other EU countries so more likely for the sambos to be in the travellers bags.

There are a million and one little niggly things like this that we take for granted that we wouldn't even think about them as for all of my life anyway, it hasn't been an issue.

ArmaniJeanss

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Try getting into Australia with food from Ireland in your bag...I thought I was going to be arrested for having some special dietary food on me when entering once.

I'm aware of Australia from that TV program alright, they are quite thorough about it.
I just wasn't aware of it being an EU rule also, though it makes complete sense that it is.
Would still be interested in whether Irish port/airport officials will now be expected to enforce this on ferries/planes arriving from GB. (Edit answered above cheers View)

Valhallapt

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I wouldn't be an international jet-setter by any means, but coming back from a handful of trips to Asia or USA I've never seen those rules applied at Dublin airport. Wasn't even aware of them to be honest.
Clearly from timetogo1's post above it is an actual rule though.

A thought : Going forward should Dublin/Rosslare officials also be doing these checks/confiscations on people coming back from the UK?

They are applied, I’ve had to wolf down a couple of ham sandwiches over the years.

ambro25

Something that is growing very annoying very quickly, is how the British MSM is currently portraying long-foretold, and now-unfurling, consequences of the hard Brexit pursued by the UK as 'news'.

This main BBC article about Brit immigrants in Spain is doing the retweeting rounds today.

Any hard-up British looking for a quick sale of their Spanish villa reading this post, feel free to enquire within.

CelticRambler

ambro25 wrote: »

Something that is growing very annoying very quickly, is how the British MSM is currently portraying long-foretold, and now-unfurling, consequences of the hard Brexit pursued by the UK as 'news'.

Well, there is one interesting nugget of "news" in that: the [law of unintended consequences] almost immediate effect on demographics - older, sicker Brits giving up their Spanish homes and moving back to the UK (where, presumably, they can be fully dependent on British social welfare and the NHS); while Spain is reaping the benefit of a rising population of young, dynamic, innovative, tax-paying, British Europhiles.

Nody

ambro25 wrote: »

Something that is growing very annoying very quickly, is how the British MSM is currently portraying long-foretold, and now-unfurling, consequences of the hard Brexit pursued by the UK as 'news'

I think a lot of it falls under the simple fact they were only using UK sources for articles because it was easier which means Brexit spin on everything. I mean we've been discussing these issues since 2016 and been able to make fairly accurate predictions on the outcome and we're not special or experts in any shape or form. There were plenty of UK sources coming to the same conclusions but that was all "project fear" and "traitors of the people who've spoken" etc. I did find this part interesting because it actually points towards why Spain would not be interested in giving UK residents any special deal:

"We have traditionally been a community here of expats who are on average 50-plus. Last year it changed, and the average age was 45. If you come over in 12 months, it'll be more like an average age of 35.

"If you're 70 or 80 years old and you don't understand this new system, the new paperwork, the driving licences needing to be switched over, say for example they get ill - what are they going to do? I think a lot of people will go back to the country where they speak the language. You no longer have the best of both worlds, and people can't rely on speaking only English to get by.

"They will be replaced by a younger set of people who can afford to be here."

In essence the elderly and poorer people leaving and young people working moving in instead (and paying tax as they become residents). It's exactly how EU immigration to UK used to work and now it's going in the other direction instead.