Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

moon2

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Why exclude them? Especially when they are that high a number, shows they don't really care more than anything imo, if they can't even be bothered to turn up almost 40% of the time

Let's include them then. With those included he only voted against the EU 11 out of 83 times. That's overwhelmingly pro-EU!

Like other posters said, a more thorough reading of the facts is necessary if you're going to try and draw conclusions from that voting record.

Pablo Escobar

ambro25 wrote: »

Many services (particularly of the financial and legal varieties) cease to be sellable into the EU27 outright from 01.01.21, any tariffs and/or mountains of NTBs (on products and other services) notwithstanding.

In that particular respect, I don't expect the national symphony of millions of tiny violins playing across UK service industries, to manage to out-play the mongo-clanging of pennies dropping the length and breadth of the UK throughout 2021.

Services are not tied up in trade deals. The EU will decide (yes, decide) whether or not to grant the UK equivalence in services and this will dictate how the services are treated.

Who holds all the cards again?

Sam Russell

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Services are not tied up in trade deals. The EU will decide (yes, decide) whether or not to grant the UK equivalence in services and this will dictate how the services are treated.

Who holds all the cards again?

The EU holds all of the cards - except the jokers.

Jokers are no use in this particular end game.

johnnyskeleton

One thing that Im struggling to understand when it comes to financial services is how the EU would benefit from allowing UK Financial Services access to their markets.

Surely excluding UK (read London) from EU access is an overwhelmingly good idea from an EU point of view, and funding, insurance etc will have to come through Frankfurt, Paris, maybe even Dublin too!

Unlike e.g. manufactured goods, which cant relocate without much hardship, funds can transfer almost overnight into an EU subsidiary or businesses can seek out loans from domestic lenders instead.

I see absolutely no upside to allowing UK services access and the only reason its being mentioned is as a barganing tool re goods, fishing etc. So if its no deal, the EU could potentially completely exclude UK services from supplying into the EU in future. This would be catastrophic for the UK (again read London) economy, which in turn would lead to Russian, Chinese, Saudi and US investment moving away from the UK and towards the EU.

Im not sure what Im missing here, but this sounds almost too good to be true from an EU point of view, and by the time the UK comes looking for a comprehensive trade deal, the damage will have been done

McGiver

johnnyskeleton wrote:

Im not sure what Im missing here, but this sounds almost too good to be true from an EU point of view, and by the time the UK comes looking for a comprehensive trade deal, the damage will have been done

UK is a tax haven and offshore financial centre (OFC), to a certain degree. Especially its Crown dependencies Jersey, Guernsey, Virgin Islands etc. Maybe there's some interest in that?

Not that the EU isn't already well served in this matter by Ireland, Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland (all which are tax havens and/or OFCs to hide profits and/or assets).

CelticRambler

McGiver wrote: »

Not that the EU isn't already well served in this matter by Ireland, Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland (all which are tax havens and/or OFCs to hide profits and/or assets).

Point of info: Switzerland isn't in the EU, and doesn't benefit from financial passporting, so until now has channelled that business through ... London.

McGiver

CelticRambler wrote:

Point of info: Switzerland isn't in the EU, and doesn't benefit from financial passporting, so until now has channelled that business through ... London.

Switzerland is de facto in the EEA but I didn't know they primarily used London (incl Jersey Guernsey) for their flows.

Given the tax haven nexus in place, where will the Swiss banking (including shadow banking) sector divert the flows now?

Peregrinus

McGiver wrote: »

Switzerland is de facto in the EEA but I didn't know they primarily used London (incl Jersey Guernsey) for their flows.

Given the tax haven nexus in place, where will the Swiss banking (including shadow banking) sector divert the flows now?

There's no sense of "London" which includes Jersey and Guernsey.

In so far as Jersey and Guernsey have a financial services industry, they have it because they are not part of the tax and regulatory regime that applies in the UK (including London). Neither Jersey nor Guernsey are part of the UK.

Capt'n Midnight

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's no sense of "London" which includes Jersey and Guernsey.

In so far as Jersey and Guernsey have a financial services industry, they have it because they are not part of the tax and regulatory regime that applies in the UK (including London). Neither Jersey nor Guernsey are part of the UK.

https://fsi.taxjustice.net/PDF/Guernsey.pdf

Thirty per cent – US$26 billion – of all junkbond issuance in Europe moved to Guernsey’s
International Stock Exchange in 2018, according to
The Wall Street Journal

And there's always the Sark Lark for those who find the other Channel Islands too restrictive.

Without the UK's veto countries like Ireland, Luxembourg and Holland can try to restrict EU usage of offshore tax havens.

ambro25

McGiver wrote: »

UK is a tax haven and offshore financial centre (OFC), to a certain degree. Especially its Crown dependencies Jersey, Guernsey, Virgin Islands etc. Maybe there's some interest in that?

Not that the EU isn't already well served in this matter by Ireland, Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland (all which are tax havens and/or OFCs to hide profits and/or assets).

None of Ireland, The Netherlands, Luxembourg or Switzerland classify as tax havens nowadays.

None of them are any use to 'hide' profits and/or assets, either.

They're fiscally more competitive/efficient in certain niche/specialised respects, relative to other 'mainstream' EU jurisdictions, as a result of historical choices and/or governmental development model and/or (increasingly-) acquired excellence of the local set of specialist service providers.

But the days of secret bank accounts and untraceable transfers are long, long behind them all, as peer nation-level (and EU) pressure continually and gradually erodes these niche/specialised advantages.

Capt'n Midnight

Blessed are the cheesemakers

The UK Japan trade deal has hit a small snag over a triflingly small sum
Given how much the Japanese value Face this is not good news.

It looks like spin is now more important than substance.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53737388

Ms Truss may be looking for a symbolic victory, as sales of blue cheese to Japan from the UK were only £102,000 last year.

Anyone remember the cheese speech ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_wkO4hk07o

Peregrinus

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Blessed are the cheesemakers

The UK Japan trade deal has hit a small snag over a triflingly small sum
Given how much the Japanese value Face this is not good news.

It looks like spin is now more important than substance.

That's the point. That's why it's (from the UK government's point of view) good news.

Face or no face, the Japanese will almost certainly give her what she wants, precisely because UK exports of blue cheese to Japan are so trivial. It will cost the Japanese nothing, nothing at all, to hand her a "win" on this, and she can use the "win" to gratify Brexiters of the Daily Mail persuasion, and therefore to distract from more signficant, and less beneficial, features of the Japanese deal. When people point out that the UK/Japan trade deal is lousier for the UK than the EU/Japan trade deal which the UK loses by Brexiting, Brexit supporters will point to the blue cheese clause and imagine that by doing so they have refuted the claim. Some of them will genuinely imagine this and others will know that it is nonsense but, either way, the distraction is acheived. And that is Truss's object.

AlmightyCushion

Peregrinus wrote: »

That's the point. That's why it's (from the UK government's point of view) good news.

Face or no face, the Japanese will almost certainly give her what she wants, precisely because UK exports of blue cheese to Japan are so trivial. It will cost the Japanese nothing, nothing at all, to hand her a "win" on this, and she can use the "win" to gratify Brexiters of the Daily Mail persuasion, and therefore to distract from more signficant, and less beneficial, features of the Japanese deal. When people point out that the UK/Japan trade deal is lousier for the UK than the EU/Japan trade deal which the UK loses by Brexiting, Brexit supporters will point to the blue cheese clause and imagine that by doing so they have refuted the claim. Some of them will genuinely imagine this and others will know that it is nonsense but, either way, the distraction is acheived. And that is Truss's object.

It's so stupid but yeah you're probably right. It's just like the blue passport 'win'.

ambro25

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It looks like spin is now more important than substance.

Where Brexit is concerned, when was this ever not the case?

Not content with a world-beating mishandling of the Covid healthcare emergency for the past 5 months, with this morning's news they find themselves with a world-beating recession for the first time in 11 years, after the worst quarterly increase in unemployment ever (blink-and-you'll-miss-it reported yesterday).

And of course, Brexit has yet to really hit, with about 150-odd days to go since they did not see fit to extend the WA...

...so they agitate the populace about some dinghies full of the wrong sorts of people like it's the summer of 2015 all over again, and jump at every other distracting opportunity (see e.g. Prity Patel's Tweet-war with Ben & Jerry's ice cream outfit).

This spin über alles model of governance will get worse -and worser- the closer we get to December.

johnnyskeleton

Peregrinus wrote: »

That's the point. That's why it's (from the UK government's point of view) good news.

Face or no face, the Japanese will almost certainly give her what she wants, precisely because UK exports of blue cheese to Japan are so trivial. It will cost the Japanese nothing, nothing at all, to hand her a "win" on this, and she can use the "win" to gratify Brexiters of the Daily Mail persuasion, and therefore to distract from more signficant, and less beneficial, features of the Japanese deal. When people point out that the UK/Japan trade deal is lousier for the UK than the EU/Japan trade deal which the UK loses by Brexiting, Brexit supporters will point to the blue cheese clause and imagine that by doing so they have refuted the claim. Some of them will genuinely imagine this and others will know that it is nonsense but, either way, the distraction is acheived. And that is Truss's object.

At a guess, I would imagine the Japanese refused zero tarrifs with the EU on cheese because they consider it necessary to protect that market.

Also, i have heard, though I accept that I havent read the full 600 page document, that if either Japan or the EU offers better trade terms to a third country, then it triggers a review for the other i.e. if they give the Uk better trade terms on cheese then they must ultimately give the same terms to the EU.

Peregrinus

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

At a guess, I would imagine the Japanese refused zero tarrifs with the EU on cheese because they consider it necessary to protect that market.

I think not really. There basically is no market for blue cheese in Japan.

The main fact to bear in mind here is that the Japanese don't consume a lot of dairy products; of the dairy products they do consume cheese forms only a small part; and of they cheese they consume blue cheese forms a tiny fraction. They don't like blue cheese, basically, and struggle to understand why anyone would eat it. Dairy in the Japanese diet is almost entirely the result of the americanisation of Japanese tastes. So it's ice-cream, cheesecake and mozaralla on pizzas. Stinky cheese, not so much.

So the barrier to selling blue cheese to Japan is not the tariffs, and tariff reduction/abolition won't result in much in the way of extra sales. Hence the EU might have asked for tariff reduction as a way of signalling to French farmers that their concerns are not unnoticed, but we wouldn't have spent bargaining credit in pressing for it; we'd have focused on tariff reductions on things that, but for tariffs, we could actually sell in Japan.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Also, i have heard, though I accept that I havent read the full 600 page document, that if either Japan or the EU offers better trade terms to a third country, then it triggers a review for the other i.e. if they give the Uk better trade terms on cheese then they must ultimately give the same terms to the EU.

Yes, there is something to that effect in the EU/Japan deal, though I'm not sure of the precise terms. But (a) I think the provision wouldn't operate unless the EU invoked it, and (b) if the EU did invoke it, Japan would not be greatly bothered; the Japanese have no more appetite for French or Italian blue cheese than they do for British.

Enzokk

On the cheese, apparently the Japanese aren't that big into stinky cheese because when the deal was negotiated the numbers weren't big enough to spend capital on for the EU. So it was not included in the deal and now Truss is trying for a win over the EU by including cheese in the deal.

This at least as per Theo Usherwood with James O'Brien.

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1293140514548658181?s=20

They are selling their political capital on a product that will hardly sell into the market. No wonder they are the worst for deaths and had the worst economic impact due to Coronavirus when compared to the EU members.

But look, dinghy's!!

listermint

brexit seems to be never ending wins, the stats are quite astounding

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1293427294833463296

kub

And there is the perfect excuse to point the finger at by the Brexiters when their dreams do not materialise after 1 January.

Sam Russell

James O'Brien thinks geographical indicators will not apply after 1st Jan - well I think he may find that EU producers might make Stilton cheese or Scotch Whiskey, but the UK producers will still be prohibited from producing Champagne or Gorganzlla.

How badly affected have EU economies been affected by Covid? Is the UK slide into recession mirrored around the EU?

listermint

Sam Russell wrote: »

James O'Brien thinks geographical indicators will not apply after 1st Jan - well I think he may find that EU producers might make Stilton cheese or Scotch Whiskey, but the UK producers will still be prohibited from producing Champagne or Gorganzlla.

How badly affected have EU economies been affected by Covid? Is the UK slide into recession mirrored around the EU?

no by contrast EU average is around 11%, highest is Portugal at 14%

So the UK is absolutely excelling here.

An Claidheamh

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Blessed are the cheesemakers

The UK Japan trade deal has hit a small snag over a triflingly small sum
Given how much the Japanese value Face this is not good news.

It looks like spin is now more important than substance.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53737388

Anyone remember the cheese speech ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_wkO4hk07o

Quantitative cheesing

Sam Russell

But is not the cheese thing with Japan a bit like the fish business with the EU?

Fish is tiny in GDP terms, but fish quotas are important because fish do not recognise borders. Fishing fleets need to be able to fish for stocks that are sustainable and that requires quotas, which requires agreements.

I cannot see an agreement between the EU and UK without fish.

An Claidheamh

On the day that the UK goes into the worst recession in Europe and the week Britain prepared for the sea border, just a reminder that “expert” Ray Bassett appears to be flogging a new book to the converted by giving serials to the Daily Express.

He literally claims the opposite of what actually happened, happened.

It’s almost psychotic.

Must be paying the bills with this nonsense.



https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1321743/brexit-news-boris-johnson-leo-varadkar-ireland-backstop-eu-theresa-may-withdrawal



However, it supports my theory that Johnson is there to claim “victory” and sell it to the plebs, but has always planned to go ahead with the original withdrawal deal

McGiver

ambro25 wrote:

None of Ireland, The Netherlands, Luxembourg or Switzerland classify as tax havens nowadays.

Incorrect. Of course they do by all experts on the matter, academia and NGOs. Obviously not as per OECD, because no country qualifies as a haven as per OECD! No need to put on the green jersey and pretend Ireland isn't a tax haven. Everyone knows that, so there's really no reason to defend the indefensible position.

ambro25 wrote:

None of them are any use to 'hide' profits and/or assets, either.

Oh they do. Especially LU and IE GDP inflation (vs GNI) is a clear indicator of tax haven status. NL is a borderline case. Ch is a shadow banking hub, different niche.

But that's for a separate thread.

UK may try to deregulate and go full haven / OFC but not sure if it's going to work.

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

But look, dinghy's!!

Speaking of fishing, the Nina May is an almost five meter long blue fibre glass dingy with an outboard engine.




And a quota for 1,500 tonnes of fish , 20% of the entire UK South-West total.

But Brexiteers need not worry, the UK handed over fishing to big, mostly foreign, business a long time ago. And hasn't enforced existing regulations like requiring the catch to be landed in the UK.

The UK and EU are haggling over fishing rights and it doesn't really matter who wins because the local fishermen won't.

Imreoir2

Sam Russell wrote: »

James O'Brien thinks geographical indicators will not apply after 1st Jan - well I think he may find that EU producers might make Stilton cheese or Scotch Whiskey, but the UK producers will still be prohibited from producing Champagne or Gorganzlla.

How badly affected have EU economies been affected by Covid? Is the UK slide into recession mirrored around the EU?

The UK can produce all the Champagne they like after the 31st, but the can't sell it in the EU market with that lable.

Peregrinus

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The UK can produce all the Champagne they like after the 31st, but the can't sell it in the EU market with that lable.

. . . or into any market which has a free trade deal with the EU that includes protection of geographical indicators.

The EU has the largest network of free trade deals the world has ever seen, and reciprocal protection of geographical indicators is a standard EU ask in negotiating any trade deal. So that's an awful lot of markets that are closed to English "champagne".

In itself, this doesn't matter a great deal. England doesn't produce a lot of sparkling wine and, if they did, who in his right mind would buy English sparkling wine, no matter how it was labelled?

But obviously there are other products that the UK does or could produce that might resemble EU products protected by a geographical indication. There's no reason why the UK can't produce feta-type cheese, say, or Parma-type ham. Absent a UK/EU trade deal, there is nothing to stop them labelling those products as feta cheese and Parma ham when sold in the UK market, or in any market that doesn't protect EU geographical indicators. And there are still substantial markets which don't, the US being the most obvious. (For now, at any rate.)

Still, this provides limited opportunities. UK producers could sell Parma ham in the US, but so can US producers - they already do. American consumers might be prepared to pay a premium for Parma ham from your actual Parma, but not for Parma ham from Peasmarsh. And I doubt the UK producers can compete with US producers on price in the US market.

ambro25

McGiver wrote: »

Incorrect. Of course they do by all experts on the matter, academia and NGOs. Obviously not as per OECD, because no country qualifies as a haven as per OECD! No need to put on the green jersey and pretend Ireland isn't a tax haven. Everyone knows that, so there's really no reason to defend the indefensible position.


Oh they do. Especially LU and IE GDP inflation (vs GNI) is a clear indicator of tax haven status. NL is a borderline case. Ch is a shadow banking hub, different niche.

But that's for a separate thread.

UK may try to deregulate and go full haven / OFC but not sure if it's going to work.

I always stick with the EU's definition of the expression-

firstly, as a personal reference/datum (given that there is no universally-accepted definition, not even that of the OECD as you rightly note) ; and

secondly, because I live, earn, bank and pay taxes in the EU (and if a state isn't referenced as a tax haven by the EU, that's good enough for me).

On that definitional basis, we'll have to agree to disagree.

Naturally, beyond the above, it's all shades of grey, varying in opinions and debates according to one's socio-political beliefs and principles and, never mind a separate thread, there are already libraries' full of tomes on the topic.

It is far less interesting than Brexit, certainly, and only peripherally relevant, subject to how Parliament and the City evolve fiscal and financial regulation in the UK from 2021. I expect Russian money management to be a rich rabbit hole to follow in that respect.

Charles Babbage

Sam Russell wrote: »

James O'Brien thinks geographical indicators will not apply after 1st Jan - well I think he may find that EU producers might make Stilton cheese or Scotch Whiskey, but the UK producers will still be prohibited from producing Champagne or Gorganzlla.

So we in Ireland can make Stilton although people in Stilton cannot! (Stilton cheese can only be made in an area that does not include Stilton).

BonnieSituation

Charles Babbage wrote: »

So we in Ireland can make Stilton although people in Stilton cannot! (Stilton cheese can only be made in an area that does not include Stilton).

No, anyone can make a stilton-type cheese but only stilton-type cheeses made within that Geographic region can call their cheese Stilton.

serfboard

An Claidheamh wrote: »

“expert” Ray Bassett appears to be flogging a new book to the converted by giving serials to the Daily Express.

He literally claims the opposite of what actually happened, happened.

It’s almost psychotic.

Must be paying the bills with this nonsense.

You'd have to wonder what kind of Kompromat Brexiters have on Ray Bassett - how can someone go from being an Irish ambassador, to spouting the deluded nonsense that he goes on with?

It can't surely be that it's just all about money, or, maybe worse, that he actually believes what he's saying?

Wikipedia wrote:

Ray Bassett ... served as an ambassador from Ireland to Canada, Jamaica, and the Bahamas and joint Secretary to the British–Irish Intergovernmental Conference in Belfast. He is senior fellow for EU affairs at Policy Exchange.

and

Wikipedia wrote:

Policy Exchange is a UK-based centre-right think tank ... It has been described in The Daily Telegraph as "the largest, but also the most influential think tank on the right".
...
Policy Exchange was set up in 2002 by a group including Nicholas Boles, Michael Gove and Francis Maude.
...
Think tank Transparify, which is funded by the Open Society Foundations, ranked Policy Exchange as one of the three least transparent think tanks in the UK in relation to funding. Transparify's report "How Transparent are Think Tanks about Who Funds Them 2016?" rated them as 'highly opaque,' one of 'a handful of think tanks that refuse to reveal even the identities of their donors.'Website 'WhoFundsYou?' rate Policy Exchange as 'E', the lowest score out of five for funding transparency.

Peregrinus

BonnieSituation wrote: »

No, anyone can make a stilton-type cheese but only stilton-type cheeses made within that Geographic region can call their cheese Stilton.

Nitipick: the protected designations under EU law (and therefore, currently, UK law) are White Stilton (or Stilton White) and Blue Stilton (or Stilton Blue). "Stilton" on its own is not a protected designation "as long as it is not used in a way that may deceive or mislead consumers as to the true origin or quality of the product". So if you want to produce and market a stilton-type cheese under the name "Dublin Stilton" or the like, away you go.

Imreoir2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The UK can produce all the Champagne they like after the 31st, but the can't sell it in the EU market with that lable.

They can't - they agreed to continue to protect EU geographical indicators within the UK in the Withdrawal Agreement. They would have to renounce the WA to do that.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_104
They failed to negotiate the same for themselves - the continued protection of UK GIs will be at the gift of the EU, unless negotiated for directly as part of the new trade deal.

Enzokk

When I saw this headline I thought someone linked a story from December last year,

Boris Johnson Says Irish Sea Border ‘Over My Dead Body’

Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned he would allow a post-Brexit border down the Irish Sea “over my dead body,” just days after pledging to help Northern Irish businesses cope with a new wave of customs red tape after the U.K. leaves the European Union.

Johnson made the comment during a visit to Belfast in Northern Ireland, where he also said businesses in the region would have unfettered access to England, Scotland and Wales after Brexit, according to the Press Association.

The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement signed by Johnson in late 2019 effectively creates a customs border in the Irish Sea, where goods crossing from the rest of the U.K. to Northern Ireland must comply with EU rules and pay any potential post-Brexit tariffs. The solution was designed to avoid creating a hard border on the island of Ireland.

But these comments were made after Johnson met Micheál Martin. I would hope those that even think of believing a word Johnson says to remember that he also said he would lie in front of bulldozers to stop the 3rd runway at Heathrow, and instead he left the country to avoid having to break his promise to his own constituents.

Peregrinus

It's not just Johnson. Brexiters generally spend the best part of two years maintaining that various border controls and restrictions as between RoI and NI would not be a "hard border", remember. All that's happening here is the application of the same logic. Johnson has promised that thre will be no border down the Irish sea; therefore whatever controls, restrictions, delays or costs are imposed on goods crossing the Irish sea cannot be considered to be a "border". because that is the only way in is Johson's promise can be, or was ever going to be, honoured.

The DUP are in a particularly invidious position. Having, for reasons known only to them and their therapists, backed a hard Brexit and denied that controls on the RoI/NO border would amount to a hard border, they cannot really turn around and object that the same controls on the NI/GB border amount to a hard border. My heart doesn't bleed for them, though.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

When I saw this headline I thought someone linked a story from December last year,

Boris Johnson Says Irish Sea Border ‘Over My Dead Body’

Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned he would allow a post-Brexit border down the Irish Sea “over my dead body,” just days after pledging to help Northern Irish businesses cope with a new wave of customs red tape after the U.K. leaves the European Union.

Johnson made the comment during a visit to Belfast in Northern Ireland, where he also said businesses in the region would have unfettered access to England, Scotland and Wales after Brexit, according to the Press Association.

The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement signed by Johnson in late 2019 effectively creates a customs border in the Irish Sea, where goods crossing from the rest of the U.K. to Northern Ireland must comply with EU rules and pay any potential post-Brexit tariffs. The solution was designed to avoid creating a hard border on the island of Ireland.

But these comments were made after Johnson met Micheál Martin. I would hope those that even think of believing a word Johnson says to remember that he also said he would lie in front of bulldozers to stop the 3rd runway at Heathrow, and instead he left the country to avoid having to break his promise to his own constituents.

Look at the words used: He says that NI will have unfettered access to England, Scotland and Wales - there will not be a border down the Irish Sea. [Of course, he was speaking from NI - and from there, there will not be a border].

Now from England, Scotland and Wales there will most certainly be a border down the Irish Sea, whether going directly or through Dublin. The customs declarations, inspections, etc. will be quite evident to all.

Was it a lie, or was it spin, or was it confusing?

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

Look at the words used: He says that NI will have unfettered access to England, Scotland and Wales - there will not be a border down the Irish Sea. [Of course, he was speaking from NI - and from there, there will not be a border].

Now from England, Scotland and Wales there will most certainly be a border down the Irish Sea, whether going directly or through Dublin. The customs declarations, inspections, etc. will be quite evident to all.

Was it a lie, or was it spin, or was it confusing?

It was a lie infused with spin I believe. At the start that border will be invisible, but once other countries start objecting at the WTO to the open access of the EU via Ireland to the UK market that invisible border will become visible very quickly.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

It was a lie infused with spin I believe. At the start that border will be invisible, but once other countries start objecting at the WTO to the open access of the EU via Ireland to the UK market that invisible border will become visible very quickly.

Well, if I was making cheese in Milltown, I would look at relocating my cheese packing plant from Wales to Newry or Banbridge so that the newly packed cheddar cheese can make their way to British supermarkets unhindered by customs and tariffs.

Also, packing beef cuts killed in Kildare can be packaged in the nearby chilling plants. Maybe just a relabelling plant would do the business.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, if I was making cheese in Milltown, I would look at relocating my cheese packing plant from Wales to Newry or Banbridge so that the newly packed cheddar cheese can make their way to British supermarkets unhindered by customs and tariffs.

Also, packing beef cuts killed in Kildare can be packaged in the nearby chilling plants. Maybe just a relabelling plant would do the business.

Actually the opposite happened. Glanbia have joined forces with the Dutch to produce cheeses better suited to the European market.

That's half the exports to the UK diversified in one go.

And there is no point in building a new factory up north you'd simply ship the milk there. LacPatrick’s have a new Dairy Technology Centre in Artigarvan, capable of processing up to 2.5 million litres each day.
https://edairynews.com/en/lacpatricks-e33-million-plant-to-future-proof-irish-milk-sales-54831/




We've are moving from being dependent on the UK as our only market for generic cheddar
https://www.ifa.ie/brexit/brexit-ireland/

Exports of cheddar cheese were 78,000 tonnes, representing 82% of all cheddar imported by the UK in 2016. Ireland is the only significant exporter of cheddar to the UK market and the UK market is the only market of significance for Irish cheddar.

To setting a new factory to export valued added "greener" Dutch style cheese.
https://waterford-news.ie/2020/07/03/e140m-belview-cheese-plant-gets-thumbs-up/#.XzaKoDW0XDc

partnership between Glanbia Ireland and leading Dutch dairy producer Royal A-ware will create a new route to market for the milk
...
The plant, which was originally due to be in operation in 2022, will be built alongside Glanbia’s milk processing plant in Belview and is expected to produce 40,000 tonnes of cheese annually in addition to processing 450 million litres of milk.

Spanish Eyes

Seems to me that no one in the UK/NI is in the least worried about Brexit at all.

Tell me how

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Seems to me that no one in the UK/NI is in the least worried about Brexit at all.

Based on what evidence?

People you have spoken to? News coverage?

I still see a lot of traffic in relation to it on Twitter.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Actually the opposite happened. Glanbia have joined forces with the Dutch to produce cheeses better suited to the European market.

That's half the exports to the UK diversified in one go.

And there is no point in building a new factory up north you'd simply ship the milk there. LacPatrick’s have a new Dairy Technology Centre in Artigarvan, capable of processing up to 2.5 million litres each day.
https://edairynews.com/en/lacpatricks-e33-million-plant-to-future-proof-irish-milk-sales-54831/




We've are moving from being dependent on the UK as our only market for generic cheddar
https://www.ifa.ie/brexit/brexit-ireland/


To setting a new factory to export valued added "greener" Dutch style cheese.
https://waterford-news.ie/2020/07/03/e140m-belview-cheese-plant-gets-thumbs-up/#.XzaKoDW0XDc

I think you misunderstood.

The cheddar is still made in Milltown but is repacked from the huge blocks into supermarket sized packs. The same with the beef - killed in Ireland but repacked in NI. So final product is from NI with destination GB - no customs and no tariff.

We still need markets for beef and cheese. Irish cheddar cheese is currently repacked in Wales for the likes of Tesco, but if it was repacked in NI, it would have free run into GB.

Spanish Eyes

Tell me how wrote: »

Based on what evidence?

People you have spoken to? News coverage?

I still see a lot of traffic in relation to it on Twitter.

Twitter? ok .

Covid has buried Brexit now.

Tell me how

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Twitter? ok .

Covid has buried Brexit now.

Yeah, obviously. That's not to say there is no interest whatsoever in Brexit.

Is Twitter not a window in to the relevance of particular topics in a society now? I mustn't be using it correctly because I find it a good way to get that. And cheaper than having to fly there and talk to everyone.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think you misunderstood.
..
We still need markets for beef and cheese. Irish cheddar cheese is currently repacked in Wales for the likes of Tesco, but if it was repacked in NI, it would have free run into GB.

In the short term and for high volume low margin stuff where transport costs are important.

It's the whole "we need them more than they need us" Brexit thing again.

The UK is our biggest market for cheddar. So we need them, in theory.

Unless of course we start using the same milk to make premium "grass fed, environmentally produced" cheese that's worth more than generic "Tesco" cheddar.


The UK is going to find out a lot of truths about the global market soon enough where suppliers will find other markets rather than bowing to the UK's terms.

Capt'n Midnight

Peregrinus wrote: »

The DUP are in a particularly invidious position. Having, for reasons known only to them and their therapists, backed a hard Brexit and denied that controls on the RoI/NO border would amount to a hard border, they cannot really turn around and object that the same controls on the NI/GB border amount to a hard border. My heart doesn't bleed for them, though.

Like Johnson they counted on remain to win allowing them to rattle sabres.

Appeal to the faithful but not upset the moderates by actually winning.

But they took dirty money and ran an Ad campaign in the Metro that was only seen by the 97% of the UK population that didn't live in NI. So now they have created the conditions where a United Ireland is possible

fash

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Like Johnson they counted on remain to win allowing them to rattle sabres.

Appeal to the faithful but not upset the moderates by actually winning.

... But having "lost through winning", they then had every opportunity to seek a soft or softer brexit - but they deliberately gambled everything on re-establishing a GFA breaking militarised border to the Republic.
They lost that bet. But in any case they had at least 2 (lengthy) opportunities to act responsibly and they failed each time.

Enzokk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Like Johnson they counted on remain to win allowing them to rattle sabres.

Appeal to the faithful but not upset the moderates by actually winning.

But they took dirty money and ran an Ad campaign in the Metro that was only seen by the 97% of the UK population that didn't live in NI. So now they have created the conditions where a United Ireland is possible

I think you give their politicians too much credit. I think they really believed in Brexit and when someone mentioned that once they have left and made a success of it, it would stop the talk of a United Ireland forever they were all on board. That would, as fash posted, explain why they never tacked to a soft Brexit. They are/were true believers in Brexit and drank all of the Kool-Aid.

RobMc59

fash wrote: »

... But having "lost through winning", they then had every opportunity to seek a soft or softer brexit - but they deliberately gambled everything on re-establishing a GFA breaking militarised border to the Republic.
They lost that bet. But in any case they had at least 2 (lengthy) opportunities to act responsibly and they failed each time.

Regardless of how brexit finally ends I don't think there will ever be a militarised border as that would be a focal point for terrorism..