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Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)
Comments
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fly_agaric wrote: »Am sure businesses will learn and get better at doing it + organise themselves to minimise it, but it (Customs bureaucracy/paperwork and goods checks) is a permanent feature of life post-Brexit that will hamper all UK trade with the EU (and vice versa) and increase costs/slow things down.
Never going away unless UK rejoins the single market & Customs union.
Will get worse (and cause us here in Ireland more trouble too) if the UK diverges very strongly from the EU in the years to come.
As everyone becomes more familiar with procedures the disruption will subside.It will obviouly never disappear but will probably become manageable.Even now we see Ireland has used it`s common sense and eased customs red tape(which I`m grateful for).At the end of the day,Britain and Ireland will always be inexorably linked whether some people like it or not.0 -
As everyone becomes more familiar with procedures the disruption will subside.It will obviouly never disappear but will probably become manageable.Even now we see Ireland has used it`s common sense and eased customs red tape(which I`m grateful for).At the end of the day,Britain and Ireland will always be inexorably linked whether some people like it or not.
Once new direct routes, supply chains and consumer habits and expectations realign towards the continent they're never going to go back to Britain until it rejoins the single market.0 -
Apparently part of the problems are to do with a new system (untried and untested) which went live 2 weeks ago on the 28th Dec. This takes incompetence to whole new levels.
Jimmy Buchan, the chief executive of the Scottish Seafood Association, told the Guardian the problems were partly caused by the “untried and untested” new IT system, which went live on 28 December when the industry was on holiday. “We were thrown in at the deep end. We’ve had two years to prepare for this and government are standing back and saying: ‘This is what you wished for.’”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/13/fresh-seafood-exports-scotland-eu-halted-fishing-brexit
Exports of seafood make up only a tiny fraction of the UK's exports to the EU.
Here are the waiting times for trucks entering Poland from Ukraine.
http://kordon.sfs.gov.ua/en/Home/Countries/pl/o
Ukraine has a Deep And Comprehensive Trade Agreement with the EU.
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/ukraine/index_en.htm
Here's the queues to enter Switzerland from Germany, a very efficiently run border, with a Swiss customs app (
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-customs_how-to-avoid-swiss-customs-with-new-app/44274756)
to help make clearing customs easier. Look at the length of the truck queues in the video clip.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1039621085682167808
The video was posted in September 2018, the Swiss customs app was launched in July 2018.
Being outside the Single Market and/or the customs union makes it more difficult and expensive to trade with the EU, and it means queues at borders between the EU and non- EU countries.
No amount of efficiently run IT systems changes that reality.0 -
As everyone becomes more familiar with procedures the disruption will subside.It will obviouly never disappear but will probably become manageable.Even now we see Ireland has used it`s common sense and eased customs red tape(which I`m grateful for).At the end of the day,Britain and Ireland will always be inexorably linked whether some people like it or not.
Ah right , your unfamiliar with the various concessions which last till July. And thinks like supermarkets been given 3 months grace from checks.
got it .
It's bad right now Rob. When these are gone and they will be. There's no evidence of smooth sailing.
But sure look you seem happy that businesses will shut their doors up and down the country. All at the alter or fauxvereignty .0 -
As everyone becomes more familiar with procedures the disruption will subside.It will obviouly never disappear but will probably become manageable.Even now we see Ireland has used it`s common sense and eased customs red tape(which I`m grateful for).
True. However that easing of procedures (by Revenue) you mention cannot last IMO. My understanding is it is basically allowing (some UK?) freight in under a "catch all" code (which would seem to me to make it impossible to actually do the Customs checks properly...).At the end of the day,Britain and Ireland will always be inexorably linked whether some people like it or not.
I realise that, and I don't think I'm one of those people.
However, (and I suppose I've probably posted about it alot because I think it is fairly important) I believe our future is in the EU as a full member and we really cannot allow a "wedge" to be driven between us and the other members by the UKs actions irrespective of the geographic realities.0 -
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As everyone becomes more familiar with procedures the disruption will subside.It will obviouly never disappear but will probably become manageable.Even now we see Ireland has used it`s common sense and eased customs red tape(which I`m grateful for).At the end of the day,Britain and Ireland will always be inexorably linked whether some people like it or not.
Switzerland runs its borders with the EU very efficiently.
They launched an app to help clear customs more quickly in July 2018: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-customs_how-to-avoid-swiss-customs-with-new-app/44274756
Here's a video clip of a Swiss customs border post from September 2018:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1039621085682167808
As the tweet says, the average time it takes to provide clearance is about 1 minute. But look at the length of the truck queues on the motorway.
No trade border, no matter how efficient, can beat no trade border!0 -
It's British that insisted on leaving the single marker, not us.
Once new direct routes, supply chains and consumer habits and expectations realign towards the continent they're never going to go back to Britain until it rejoins the single market.0 -
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sondagefaux wrote: »Switzerland runs its borders with the EU very efficiently.
They launched an app to help clear customs more quickly in July 2018: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-customs_how-to-avoid-swiss-customs-with-new-app/44274756
Here's a video clip of a Swiss customs border post from September 2018:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1039621085682167808
As the tweet says, the average time it takes to provide clearance is about 1 minute. But look at the length of the truck queues on the motorway.
No trade border, no matter how efficient, can beat no trade border!
Is it beyond the UK doing exactly the same?After all,the deal went right down to the wire.Do you really envisage there will be no resolution to the current upheaval until things settle down?0 -
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Thank you,I was`nt aware of that.
Is it beyond the UK doing exactly the same?After all,the deal went right down to the wire.Do you really envisage there will be no resolution to the current upheaval until things settle down?
The UK don't have the customs staff. Literally head count nor the vets for clearance. There's no end in sight or settle down.
The stocks that were stockpiled will run low later this month and next. This is only heading worse directions. Traffic has been very low because of the stock piling.0 -
listermint wrote: »Ah right , your unfamiliar with the various concessions which last till July. And thinks like supermarkets been given 3 months grace from checks.
got it .
It's bad right now Rob. When these are gone and they will be. There's no evidence of smooth sailing.
But sure look you seem happy that businesses will shut their doors up and down the country. All at the alter or fauxvereignty .
As much as I`d like to think Ireland eased red tape to help their ould friends the British I`m not that naive,it`s obviously because it`s in Ireland`s interests.
Do you think Ireland did it to help the UK?0 -
As much as I`d like to think Ireland eased red tape to help their ould friends the British I`m not that naive,it`s obviously because it`s in Ireland`s interests.
Do you think Ireland did it to help the UK?
I think you are confused the concessions were part of the trade agreement. Nothing to do with Ireland.
Have you read up on any of this ? Genuinely ?0 -
listermint wrote: »I think you are confused the concessions were part of the trade agreement. Nothing to do with Ireland.
Have you read up on any of this ? Genuinely ?
Think below is what RobMc59 referred to (the line "Even now we see Ireland has used it`s common sense and eased customs red tape"?)
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0108/1188441-revenue-eases-customs-requirements/Revenue has introduced a temporary easing of measures for the lodging of safety and security declarations that will help business meet their customs obligations and get their goods moving between Ireland and the UK.
Anyway - will end my posting about it here, as more appropriate to the other thread on Ireland/Single Market post Brexit + was discussed there already afair.0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »Can Cherbourg or Rosslare take the traffic? That is a lot of ships.
But I would presume that Stena, as a private business owing a fiduciary duty to its shareholders, besides being a decades-old hand at the RoRo game and freight logistics/customs generally, did their homework prior to recalibrating their resource allocation.0 -
As much as I`d like to think Ireland eased red tape to help their ould friends the British I`m not that naive,it`s obviously because it`s in Ireland`s interests.
Do you think Ireland did it to help the UK?
Ever been in a trade union? They're excellent at looking after their members' interests.
Non-members? They don't give a damn.
Same with the European Union.0 -
The UK had a head start because they took it upon themselves to clear the vaccine for use whilst the majority of EU nations sat round waiting for the ok from Brussels,except Germany as kermit pointed out who ,along with France do as they please.
Do you refuse to acknowledge there is a hierarchy within the EU with Germany and France at the top?
At one point in the distant past, I was involved in some legislation where Ireland, France, Germany and the UK had strong views that the legislation should be shaped in a particular direction.
We argued strongly and were resoundingly thumped. QMV, baby.0 -
listermint wrote: »I think you are confused the concessions were part of the trade agreement. Nothing to do with Ireland.
Have you read up on any of this ? Genuinely ?
Have you read up on this?I`ve attached a link to the Irish examiner. There are also articles about Ireland looking at ways to ease checks on food and livestock between Ireland and the UK (Irish Times)Once again,I realise Ireland is doing this in it`s own interests.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40203365.html0 -
Have you read up on this?I`ve attached a link to the Irish examiner. There are also articles about Ireland looking at ways to ease checks on food and livestock between Ireland and the UK (Irish Times)Once again,I realise Ireland is doing this in it`s own interests.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40203365.html
Can look all they like but has to comply with CU and SM regulations.
We can't go off on solo runs letting agriculture in or out Sans checks.0 -
listermint wrote: »Ouch! That's a pretty big deal.
From fast-cumulating reactions on social media tonight, that one has genuinely shocked the old freight/customs hands long- and well-familiar with the operational mess expected out of 'actual' Brexit (out of the CU/SM) at the end of the transition period. Clearly, they all expected an unholy mess...but nowhere near this unholy, and developing into a complete logjam that fast.
I have long ignored the more sensationalist posts and arguments about civil unrest in the UK, but if this "haulage boycott" endures long enough -as in a good 2 to 3 months longer- I can see it impacting the UK as majorly as in the no-deal/Yellowhammer projections of old, and snowballing fast.
Groupage (and the difficulty in transitioning UK-EU27 supply chains out of it short-term and at scale) looks like the real killer issue to me, that is impacting literally every business everywhere in the UK...with the real issue surfacing in that 2-3m timescale once the "Brexit-mitigating" stockpiles amassed up to December 2020 run out in the UK.0 -
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sondagefaux wrote: »Ever been in a trade union? They're excellent at looking after their members' interests.
Non-members? They don't give a damn.
Same with the European Union.
I`ve been a member of Unite,previously known as TGWU for longer than i care to remember.The only thing that put me off (I still retained membership though)was back in the 80`s when militant infiltrated everything here on merseyside.0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »Can Cherbourg or Rosslare take the traffic? That is a lot of ships.
Six-fold increase in traffic by 9th January:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/surge-in-freight-traffic-on-direct-ferry-routes-to-europe-1.4453585
Ireland to Britain needs fewer and smaller ferries:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/largest-irish-sea-ferry-operator-cuts-sailings-due-to-supply-chain-problems-1.4452560
https://afloat.ie/port-news/ferry-news/item/48974-irish-ferries-boost-freight-capacity-as-w-b-yeats-enters-earlier-on-direct-france-route
At some point, getting a ferry from Ireland to Britain vs getting a ferry from Ireland to France will be more like getting a direct flight from Ireland to China, (deferred due to Covid:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/new-direct-dublin-to-china-flight-deferred-over-coronavirus-concerns-1.4179809) more
infrequent compared to direct flights to the USA.0 -
Thank you,I was`nt aware of that.
Is it beyond the UK doing exactly the same?After all,the deal went right down to the wire.Do you really envisage there will be no resolution to the current upheaval until things settle down?
I don't think you get it, no matter how efficient the borders, there will be queues and it will always be more difficult to trade from outside the Single Market and customs union.
These difficulties are a feature, not a bug.0 -
Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
Peak UKIP European Parliament election, 2014
Purple is UKIP, Yellow is SNP.
Red/Blue is the Two Party System. Green is the Welsh Gaeltacht.
European Parliament elections in Britain were held using a closed-list party system.
People voted for parties, not candidates.
Even though these elections used the most proportional voting system in any type of elections held in Britain, UKIP couldn't win more than 27% of votes, getting 24 out of 73 UK MEPs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#:~:text=The%20most%20successful%20party%20overall,since%20the%201906%20general%20election.
They never really had any realistic chance of winning more than a handful of Westminster seats under FPTP, Farage himself was rejected seven times when he ran for Westminster.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_history_of_Nigel_Farage#:~:text=Leader%20of%20the%20Brexit%20Party&text=Farage%20has%20stood%20for%20election,by%2052%25%20to%2048%25.
It's fair to say that when Farage himself was on a ballot paper, as opposed to UKIP or the Brexit Party, he was never elected.0 -
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Have you read up on this?I`ve attached a link to the Irish examiner. There are also articles about Ireland looking at ways to ease checks on food and livestock between Ireland and the UK (Irish Times)Once again,I realise Ireland is doing this in it`s own interests.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40203365.html
Yes; the companies will be better at doing it but even at the Swiss border which is very efficient you're talking 30 min per truck to go through if all paperwork is in order. Yes, it takes 1 min at the border itself but that's because the truck driver have already parked outside, stood in queue, gone in and got all papers checked and approved, and then goes to the 1 min border passage; and if not they have to wait there until they do. The problem UK experience now is a very simple one; a) they don't have enough vets to do the sealing of trucks (because their vets doing the job was eastern European once who now don't make enough money to meet the threshold and left), b) companies not knowing what they need to do (this is pure British company failure and you can see it expressed in many articles such as "We had to rebrand all the pallets", well duh, you did not do it correctly in the first place etc.) and c) lack of customs agents (remember 50k agents required; UK has recruited basically none of those).
None of those are impossible to fix but they all come with a significant cost and a significant time span to get them sorted out, and by then the supply chains have already changed drastically to accommodate the new reality. UK don't have a year to sort this out; they got a month or two at best before things will be rerouted to new supply chains instead. UK fishers going to Denmark instead of British ports to avoid the hassle is an example of something that will permanently change the route for fish processing; they are not going to come back to British ports in 2022 once things are better hopefully and take a gamble that it's now sorted. Once those supply chains goes they are gone and they are being looked at right now to fix the issue. Companies don't have months and months of free cash to burn to survive it; they will need to shut down or change the supply chains. This will mean finding UK markets for their goods or simply hanging up the boots like many Fishers will have to do by the looks of it. Same will happen in NI with the food markets; they will be re-routed to EU based companies instead and once done they are not coming back to UK. That's a volume drop that has to be absorbed in the UK supply lines in some form; either cost cuts (i.e. fire people) or raised prices to compensate. Big companies can handle it; small companies can not and will have to adjust to a UK only market going forward.0 -
From a Barnier interview, published in the FT.
Makes it clear that the checks and controls on UK-EU trade are a permanent feature.Michel Barnier has warned that many of the new regulatory frictions hampering cross-Channel trade will be impossible to smooth over, as the inevitable consequences of Brexit begin to manifest themselves for businesses across Europe.
The EU’s Brexit negotiator said that some things have “changed for good” as a result of the UK’s policy choices, noting that “there are mechanical, obvious, inevitable, consequences when you leave the single market and that’s what the British wished to do”.
In an interview with a group of reporters, he underlined that Britain risks losing its tariff-free and quota-free trading rights with the EU if it diverges too far below European regulatory standards, singling out a recent controversy over a UK government decision to authorise a previously banned pesticide.
...
Mr Barnier said that some upheaval since January — such as businesses curtailing cross-Channel trade as they navigate new paperwork — reflected adaptation issues that were leading to “glitches, problems, breakdowns” that should be cleared up over the coming weeks and months.
But he was also clear that both sides need to learn to live with the structural changes resulting from Brexit, ranging from checks on imports of farm produce to a ban on travellers bringing meat sandwiches with them when they cross the external border.
“This agreement will not be renegotiated, it now needs to be implemented,” he said.
https://www.ft.com/content/4788c361-7b72-46e9-b861-1d29d0662ad20 -
Thank you,I was`nt aware of that.
Is it beyond the UK doing exactly the same?After all,the deal went right down to the wire.Do you really envisage there will be no resolution to the current upheaval until things settle down?
As others have pointed out borders checks are always a problem. However things will settle down a bit as people get up to speed with all the paperwork but also as result of less trade between the UK and EU due the costs that border checks put on businesses. And remember when you are talking about less trade you talking about businesses going bust. The border checks will make some businesses in both the EU and UK unsustainable. Obviously for companies in the EU this is less of an issue as they are part of larger market have more alternatives. The UK has just agreed to border checks with a trade bloc it does 45% odd of its trade with that's obviously a massive blow to the UK.
The other thing that hasn't got much attention is the impact on services which the EU UK trade deal does not cover. For all the issues with border checks there is at least some sort of framework there with no tarrifs etc. The UK is a services economy and has/had a trade surplus in this area with the EU. So for all the visibility of the issues created by border checks on goods, it's not the only and even the most serious adjustment the UK economy has to get used to.0 -
Rob, I think there's a key part you're currently missing here and I'm being honest and not trying to BS you. The customs controls right now are the lowest bar they are ever going to be. Come April the bar goes up for all incoming trade. Come June they go up again for export to Ireland and on top of that UK claims they will start doing their inbound controls (I doubt that but still) which adds yet more delays in the other direction. The point being things are not going to get easier with time; the requirements and forms are only going up from now.
Yes; the companies will be better at doing it but even at the Swiss border which is very efficient you're talking 30 min per truck to go through if all paperwork is in order. Yes, it takes 1 min at the border itself but that's because the truck driver have already parked outside, stood in queue, gone in and got all papers checked and approved, and then goes to the 1 min border passage; and if not they have to wait there until they do. The problem UK experience now is a very simple one; a) they don't have enough vets to do the sealing of trucks (because their vets doing the job was eastern European once who now don't make enough money to meet the threshold and left), b) companies not knowing what they need to do (this is pure British company failure and you can see it expressed in many articles such as "We had to rebrand all the pallets", well duh, you did not do it correctly in the first place etc.) and c) lack of customs agents (remember 50k agents required; UK has recruited basically none of those).
None of those are impossible to fix but they all come with a significant cost and a significant time span to get them sorted out, and by then the supply chains have already changed drastically to accommodate the new reality. UK don't have a year to sort this out; they got a month or two at best before things will be rerouted to new supply chains instead. UK fishers going to Denmark instead of British ports to avoid the hassle is an example of something that will permanently change the route for fish processing; they are not going to come back to British ports in 2022 once things are better hopefully and take a gamble that it's now sorted. Once those supply chains goes they are gone and they are being looked at right now to fix the issue. Companies don't have months and months of free cash to burn to survive it; they will need to shut down or change the supply chains. This will mean finding UK markets for their goods or simply hanging up the boots like many Fishers will have to do by the looks of it. Same will happen in NI with the food markets; they will be re-routed to EU based companies instead and once done they are not coming back to UK. That's a volume drop that has to be absorbed in the UK supply lines in some form; either cost cuts (i.e. fire people) or raised prices to compensate. Big companies can handle it; small companies can not and will have to adjust to a UK only market going forward.
A GB-only market for British-based SMEs. Selling to NI from GB is at least as much hassle, if not more, than selling to the EU from GB.
Even if British exporters eventually get used to the new requirements and start meeting them correctly, as you say, their suppliers and customers outside Britain aren't going to hang around and wait for them, especially when thete are many cheaper and easier alternatives.
The lack of, and increased prices for, groupage options for SME exporters is what's really going to hurt them, along with the huge price increases for customs declarations being introduced by British customs brokers, from £50 per declaration to £500 in some cases!
There's no way that will.settle down in a few months, when the UK has only about 10% of the trained customs brokers it needs.0 -
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Rob, I think there's a key part you're currently missing here and I'm being honest and not trying to BS you. The customs controls right now are the lowest bar they are ever going to be. Come April the bar goes up for all incoming trade. Come June they go up again for export to Ireland and on top of that UK claims they will start doing their inbound controls (I doubt that but still) which adds yet more delays in the other direction. The point being things are not going to get easier with time; the requirements and forms are only going up from now.
Yes; the companies will be better at doing it but even at the Swiss border which is very efficient you're talking 30 min per truck to go through if all paperwork is in order. Yes, it takes 1 min at the border itself but that's because the truck driver have already parked outside, stood in queue, gone in and got all papers checked and approved, and then goes to the 1 min border passage; and if not they have to wait there until they do. The problem UK experience now is a very simple one; a) they don't have enough vets to do the sealing of trucks (because their vets doing the job was eastern European once who now don't make enough money to meet the threshold and left), b) companies not knowing what they need to do (this is pure British company failure and you can see it expressed in many articles such as "We had to rebrand all the pallets", well duh, you did not do it correctly in the first place etc.) and c) lack of customs agents (remember 50k agents required; UK has recruited basically none of those).
None of those are impossible to fix but they all come with a significant cost and a significant time span to get them sorted out, and by then the supply chains have already changed drastically to accommodate the new reality. UK don't have a year to sort this out; they got a month or two at best before things will be rerouted to new supply chains instead. UK fishers going to Denmark instead of British ports to avoid the hassle is an example of something that will permanently change the route for fish processing; they are not going to come back to British ports in 2022 once things are better hopefully and take a gamble that it's now sorted. Once those supply chains goes they are gone and they are being looked at right now to fix the issue. Companies don't have months and months of free cash to burn to survive it; they will need to shut down or change the supply chains. This will mean finding UK markets for their goods or simply hanging up the boots like many Fishers will have to do by the looks of it. Same will happen in NI with the food markets; they will be re-routed to EU based companies instead and once done they are not coming back to UK. That's a volume drop that has to be absorbed in the UK supply lines in some form; either cost cuts (i.e. fire people) or raised prices to compensate. Big companies can handle it; small companies can not and will have to adjust to a UK only market going forward.
Fair enough but are you saying that Ireland is seriously cutting corners in regards to customs procedures and considering relaxing livestock rules according to a number of news outlets (doing this unilaterally) because of delays just out of the goodness of it heart?0
This discussion has been closed.
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