Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

beggars_bush

Are our supplies of british potatoes for chips going to be affected?
That's my main concern

amacca

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A trawler has been stuck in Hull since December, as fishing talks with Norway "have yet to start"!

https://twitter.com/jude5456/status/1350896124631130116

some of these people have no business voting at all afaic...at least inform yourself of the possible/likely consequences of your decisions before you make them......have any of them ever heard of look before you leap? I feel sorry for anyone whose business struggles because of this but when you were the Turkey that voted for Christmas its hard to have the same level of empathy..........I daresay the people whose businesses are suffering because of this that had no hand act or part/influence on the decision would have less pity.

voters like that make it too easy for unscrupulous politicians/deluded cretins to have their wicked way.

Strazdas

amacca wrote: »

some of these people have no business voting at all afaic...at least inform yourself of the possible/likely consequences of your decisions before you make them......have any of them ever heard of look before you leap? I feel sorry for anyone whose business struggles because of this but when you were the Turkey that voted for Christmas its hard to have the same level of empathy..........I daresay the people whose businesses are suffering because of this that had no hand act or part/influence on the decision would have less pity.

voters like that make it too easy for unscrupulous politicians/deluded cretins to have their wicked way.

The referendum was never treated with any seriousness. It was as if people were voting to rename Oxford Street or to change UK post boxes to the colour blue.

It was a dumbed down referendum with no comprehension of the chaos that might ensue : probable break up of the UK, the remaining rump state losing major stature on the global stage, people worse off financially etc.

Carfacemandog

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Did anyone see Rabb on Andrew Marr? Was Rabb actually challenged on his comments?

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1350740369756008452?s=19

Seemingly every day over the last 4-5 years, Marr has one upped himself in the "how is this guy even in his line of employment" stakes. I'm not sure I've ever seen him challenge anyone on any of their comments in any meaningful way.

Bigus

I just watched Sunday politics on BBC Northern Ireland.

It was very enlightening to see how two business representatives with brains are totally dismissing the DUP screams to invoke article 16 as a non runner.

Instead they seem to think that there are work arounds to a lot of the supply problems to NI with ongoing help and goodwill from the EU.

It’s almost as if the real business community in NI has finally copped on to the unique benefits of having a foot in both UK and EU markets could have enormous potential and they are bursting their balls to make this new protocol work.

Both of these business representatives were completely against the DUP’s current and past positions and see them as a spent force.

However both seemed very positive going forward , even concluding that the steel tariff issue is being negotiated away with EU help over this weekend.

I can now see where successful NI businessmen see their future , and it ain’t Westminster.

Tell me how

Bigus wrote: »

I just watched Sunday politics on BBC Northern Ireland.

It was very enlightening to see how two business representatives with brains are totally dismissing the DUP screams to invoke article 16 as a non runner.

Instead they seem to think that there are work arounds to a lot of the supply problems to NI with ongoing help and goodwill from the EU.

It’s almost as if the real business community in NI has finally copped on to the unique benefits of having a foot in both UK and EU markets could have enormous potential and they are bursting their balls to make this new protocol work.

Both of these business representatives were completely against the DUP’s current and past positions and see them as a spent force.

However both seemed very positive going forward , even concluding that the steel tariff issue is being negotiated away with EU help over this weekend.

I can now see where successful NI businessmen see their future , and it ain’t Westminster.

Business and Farming Community in the North has been imploring the DUP to shift their position since at least 2017. The DUP, with straight faces, spoke from a minority position as to what they said society in Northern Ireland wanted. It was interesting to see the reality of what was happening become clear to Sammy Wilson as he realized that they had actively pushed for something that was going to isolate them further from the Mother Land than they've been in hundreds of years.

Peregrinus

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

What kind of business would do that? That makes no sense whatsoever

Actually, it's extremely common and - so long as all your stores remain in a single customs area - makes perfect sense.

Supermarket chains absolutely depend on just--in-time delivery, both because much of what they sell is fresh produce and because it's not economically viabe to carry large stocks of every product line in every store. Plus, they have thousands of product lines.

The only way to manage this is to have large distribution points where you keep stocks of all your product lines, and to distribute to stores from those distribution points. Sainsburys/Argos has more than 2,200 stores throughout the UK; they are supplied from a network of 34 distribution centres.

So, yeah, the NI-produced sausages go to a Sainsbury's warehouse, from where they are distributed (in the same trucks that simultaneously deliver many other products) to the individual stores - not just stores in NI but stores in GB also.

The great bulk of the product lines distributed to Sainsbury's NI stores do not originate in NI, and the bulk of what Sainbury's sources in NI is sold in stores in GB. There is no particular efficiency in establishing unique supply lines for NI producers serving NI stores - quite the opposite. Sainsbury's/Argos only has 13 stores in NI; it would make no sense for NI to have its own distribution centre.

(As long as NI and GB remain in the one customs area, that is.)

signostic

SNIP. Please don't just paste links and text here.

Peregrinus

Lumen wrote: »

Both Ireland and GB believe themselves to have a special relationship with the US, and I'd argue that from a cultural perspective Ireland have a much stronger claim, something which the English tend to be completely oblivious to as evidenced by their mishandling of the backstop and subsequent slapping down by Biden.

Nonetheless, both of them are heavily asymmetrical, and I'm not sure either has been proven to be reciprocal in terms of costly political decisions from the US (though I'd welcome examples).

I'll offer US support for, and investment in, the peace process in the 1990s and into the 2000s one beneficial (for both Ireland and UK!) outcome of the relationship.

Sure, it's not a "costly political decision" for the US president of the time, but I think the value of the relationship for us lies in the benefits we get, rather than the costs the US bears.

Another example, to the UK's benefit, might be US support for the UK in the Falklands/Malvinas war. Argentina had expected the US to be more accommodating of its position, given the US's long standing "Munroe Doctrine" — a policy of opposing any role for, or intervention by, European powers in political questions anywhere in the the Americas. A classic application of the Monroe Doctrine would lead the US not to favour UK sovereignty in the Falklands.

Seth Brundle

Apparently the Scottish fishermen have travelled to Westminster to protest at the difficulties that they now face (although I assume that the government will continue with the denials)...

https://twitter.com/aileen_boughen/status/1351109104056602629

Edit: apparently it's the nationwide fishing industry protesting and not just the Scots...
It a peaceful protest and they won't be dumping fish as the French would do.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1351117410712039431

Leroy42

The Tory party will reply to the Fishermen the same way they have done to anything and everything that has been brought up in regards to issues with Brexit.

1st, the problem doesn't exist.
Then it does exist but not as bad as people are making out
Then, even if it is bad it mainly down to the individuals not taking the opportunities
Then if that doesn't wash, then it isn't really Brexit but a combination of other things, mainly the EU being really mean

By the time that is all worked through, some other massive issue has arisen and we start the process all over again

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

The Tory party will reply to the Fishermen the same way they have done to anything and everything that has been brought up in regards to issues with Brexit.

1st, the problem doesn't exist.
Then it does exist but not as bad as people are making out
Then, even if it is bad it mainly down to the individuals not taking the opportunities
Then if that doesn't wash, then it isn't really Brexit but a combination of other things, mainly the EU being really mean

By the time that is all worked through, some other massive issue has arisen and we start the process all over again

Exactly.

Seth Brundle

I've no doubt that the Tories will deny responsibility as per Rabb's interview yesterday.
However, as time goes on, I've no doubt that there will be more and more protests and eventually the public at large will understand why the Brexit fantasy hasn't come true.

tubercolossus

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I've no doubt that the Tories will deny responsibility as per Rabb's interview yesterday.
However, as time goes on, I've no doubt that there will be more and more protests and eventually the public at large will understand why the Brexit fantasy hasn't come true.

I think that a day will come when the entire nation, or at least enough of them to make the difference, will just stop, look at each other, and go "Wait, what? Why are we even doing this, ffs? Let's just rejoin the EU."

Leroy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I've no doubt that the Tories will deny responsibility as per Rabb's interview yesterday.
However, as time goes on, I've no doubt that there will be more and more protests and eventually the public at large will understand why the Brexit fantasy hasn't come true.

Yes, you would think that would be the logical outcome, but the main problem is that the Brexit fantasy has never, and is still not (for very obvious reasons) actually a thing. It is whatever anyone thinks it is.

Last week we had the move to ministers saying that they always warning that things would be bumpy, that problems were always going to happen.

This despite throughout the last 4 years any and all claims that things would be bad were met with claims that it was the worst case scenario only, only if no deal happened and things got really bad.

As Brexit means something different to each person, it is almost impossible to say that whatever happens wasn't what was really already talked about. 'People knew what they were voting for'

The vast majority of people don't care about the fishermens problems. Lack of stock in supermarkets is because the supermarket didn't prepare properly, people losing jobs is because they are in the wrong industry etc etc.

There will always be an excuse, and it will all be held together by a media that seems completely disinterested in talking about the actual issues. When Raab is allowed get away with his response on a flagship BBC problem then the media are a massive part of the problem

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I've no doubt that the Tories will deny responsibility as per Rabb's interview yesterday.
However, as time goes on, I've no doubt that there will be more and more protests and eventually the public at large will understand why the Brexit fantasy hasn't come true.

It depends. If people continue to get their 'news' from the Express, Mail, Telegraph, Sun, then the Tory Brexit delusion of unicorns and rainbows, and it's all the EU's fault, will persist.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It depends. If people continue to get their 'news' from the Express, Mail, Telegraph, Sun, then the Tory Brexit delusion of unicorns and rainbows, and it's all the EU's fault, will persist.

I'm not so sure. These outlets have spent decades convincing the public that everything wrong with the nation can be pinned on the EU. They did this from the position of security of having EU membership as the status quo.

They now have to start building a narrative justifying the abject failure of their proposed solution entirely from scratch from a position of weakness as the headlines flood in of delays and damage to businesses.

Akrasia

schmoo2k wrote: »

UK Supreme Court just ruled that businesses can claim for Covid losses from their insurance.

(Which is interesting as there is no further appeal mechanism?)

Do the insurance companies have capital to cover these claims?

Are we going to see a new credit crunch to go along with the Covid supply side recession?

Lemming

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Seemingly every day over the last 4-5 years, Marr has one upped himself in the "how is this guy even in his line of employment" stakes. I'm not sure I've ever seen him challenge anyone on any of their comments in any meaningful way.

Belatedly (as in within the last year), every now and again he throws a challenging question but then seems to revert to type after (if) he has thrown one out there. Certainly he never holds talking heads feet to the fire in reqard to whatever 'difficult' question he may have asked and eventually lets them Johnson their way to an easier question.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It depends. If people continue to get their 'news' from the Express, Mail, Telegraph, Sun, then the Tory Brexit delusion of unicorns and rainbows, and it's all the EU's fault, will persist.

TBH, even the other media outlets are not really making a big deal over it.

It should have been that the papers were covered with the realities of the deal, the actual impacts, the red tape, the bureaucracy, the limits on business, the costs.

But in the main it was pretty gentle. There seems, and I am being generous here, and wait and see approach. The media seemed to have learnt nothing for the last 5 years where a wait and see approach 'well maybe it will work out' has proved to be wrong every time.

Part of this, of course, is down to Covid and the major impact that is having.

yagan

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It depends. If people continue to get their 'news' from the Express, Mail, Telegraph, Sun, then the Tory Brexit delusion of unicorns and rainbows, and it's all the EU's fault, will persist.

January 1st 1973 the Daily Mail banner headline declared EUROPE, HERE WE COME.

They'll sniff the wind and change with the mood. The might even go full English republican if Charles III doesn't go down well with the punters.

If it bleeds, it leads.

Silent Running

tubercolossus wrote: »

I think that a day will come when the entire nation, or at least enough of them to make the difference, will just stop, look at each other, and go "Wait, what? Why are we even doing this, ffs? Let's just rejoin the EU."

It's never going to be that easy.

They would have to accept the Euro and all of their opt outs will not be available.

It's going to take a very long time before there will be a rush to re-join... if ever.

Hurrache

Palletways, who are partners with Transland here, one of the biggest palleted goods distributors in Europe, are also out of the EU-GB route for a while.

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1350869729620197379

Dymo

I think there is never going to be any change to the mind of a Brexitor, listening to the fish man on James O Brien show above there was no hint of him saying Brexit was bad.

I spoke to my uncle last night a staunch Brexitor (Irish but living in the UK for years), first thing he started complaining about the EU and all the bureaucracy with he EU, it's great the UK are on their own so they were able to push out the Corona Vaccine a lot quicker.

The delay at the ports is all to do with the EU bureaucracy. The EU is still bad and always will be in there minds. No point educating them just sit back with popcorn and let them find solutions.

Leroy42

There was a telling line in the O'Brien LBC interview with the fisherman. The fisherman said that an entire tuck was delayed for .7kg error in paperwork. O'Brien replied that those are the rules.

To me, that summed it up. Brexit UK things that they should be treated differently than everyone else. Have rules, great, but it's us, its the UK, sure what harm. Just let that bit go and sure we won't say anything.

And that hs been the key in all of it, from the very start. They always had the view, and that is why leaving the SM and CU wasn't seen as a big deal, that whatever the outcome that things wouldn't really change.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not so sure. These outlets have spent decades convincing the public that everything wrong with the nation can be pinned on the EU. They did this from the position of security of having EU membership as the status quo.

They now have to start building a narrative justifying the abject failure of their proposed solution entirely from scratch from a position of weakness as the headlines flood in of delays and damage to businesses.

But these headlines are lost in other headlines calling Brexit a triumph or berating the EU for their customs bureaucracy (nevermind Covid). I hope you're right but if I were a Tory Brexiteer, I'd be using the negatives of Brexit to double down on blaming the EU for continuing to interfere with sovereignty and to use its intransigence as proof that the UK was right to leave. Nimble, freedom, sovereignty, unfettered, glorious future etc.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But these headlines are lost in other headlines calling Brexit a triumph or berating the EU for their customs bureaucracy (nevermind Covid). I hope you're right but if I were a Tory Brexiteer, I'd be using the negatives of Brexit to double down on blaming the EU for continuing to interfere with sovereignty and to use its intransigence as proof that the UK was right to leave. Nimble, freedom, sovereignty, unfettered, glorious future etc.

I don't think so. Brexit was finalized at the start of this month. What you're referring to aren't even yesterday's headlines.

A lot of people who voted for Brexit aren't even Tories. They're conservatives who detest the Conservative party so they vote Labour. This is many of them flipped in 2019 but they're not going to lap up everything the Express says and then deferentially ask for more. Same for Scotland. Fishermen and women may have voted for Brexit and toyed with the Tory party in 2017 but that faded away in 2019.

A certain fragment of the population will blame the EU, sure. This is a given. However, I think for many the focus is going to be on their own bottom lines. Everyone (speaking generally) is expecting a hit. The question is how big it's going to be.

'Brexit' (the mythical beast) only 'works' if the EU is torn apart by it, and UK can wield its full weight against smaller nations.

Once you realise this, you see why Gove, Raab et al must constantly shift blame towards the EU. Nothing that the UK Gov have or haven't done can be attributable for any delays, no government policy can be pointed at to causing any mayhem etc. An example of this is that May set out 3+ years ago that UK was leaving the SM and CU. The EU sent notices to stakeholders about what this meant. The implications of such are visible today, the lorries being checked, the import duty on Amazon, the requirements for an importer and direct B2C sales into the EU being so much more difficult. However this is not painted as a Government Policy Decision, this is purely the EU's fault for being so difficult regarding the requirements (that they legally must do as part of their WTO obligations, MFN clauses and existing trade deals with other parties).

Some elements of the UK press (who may or may not now be leading Gov policy!) have for decades repeated this trope ad nauseam, and it has sold. They are not going to stop any time soon.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think so. Brexit was finalized at the start of this month. What you're referring to aren't even yesterday's headlines.

A lot of people who voted for Brexit aren't even Tories. They're conservatives who detest the Conservative party so they vote Labour. This is many of them flipped in 2019 but they're not going to lap up everything the Express says and then deferentially ask for more. Same for Scotland. Fishermen and women may have voted for Brexit and toyed with the Tory party in 2017 but that faded away in 2019.

A certain fragment of the population will blame the EU, sure. This is a given. However, I think for many the focus is going to be on their own bottom lines. Everyone (speaking generally) is expecting a hit. The question is how big it's going to be.

Actually, these two headlines are from The Telegraph just two days ago:

From the Business section: Money has started to flow back into Britain - the Brexit deal is unequivocally positive.
From the Opinion section: Britain's nimble taskforce puts EU bureaucracy to shame - and shows how Brexit can succeed.

Wrt who voted for Brexit, just a quarter of Labour voters voted Leave. But today's Labour party is very different to Corbyn's Labour party so comparison is meaningless.

My belief is that there is a cohort of conditioned voters, many of whom have been conditioned by the Tory press over decades, that constitute about 40% of the electorate. They voted for Brexit. They voted in a populist , nationalist Tory government. They now believe in Brexit as an article of faith. Reality doesn't really matter, they just want a narrative that suits their belief and the Tory press and the Tory populists will happily feed that narrative. In my opinion, as things deteriorate in Britain, this nationalism will be stoked further by the Tories to ensure another hefty majority in four years. If only there were a proper democratic electoral process and a cohesive and able opposition. But there isn't.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Actually, these two headlines are from The Telegraph just two days ago:

From the Business section: Money has started to flow back into Britain - the Brexit deal is unequivocally positive.
From the Opinion section: Britain's nimble taskforce puts EU bureaucracy to shame - and shows how Brexit can succeed.

Wrt who voted for Brexit, just a quarter of Labour voters voted Leave. But today's Labour party is very different to Corbyn's Labour party so comparison is meaningless.

My belief is that there is a cohort of conditioned voters, many of whom have been conditioned by the Tory press over decades, that constitute about 40% of the electorate. They voted for Brexit. They voted in a populist , nationalist Tory government. They now believe in Brexit as an article of faith. Reality doesn't really matter, they just want a narrative that suits their belief and the Tory press and the Tory populists will happily feed that narrative. In my opinion, as things deteriorate in Britain, this nationalism will be stoked further by the Tories to ensure another hefty majority in four years. If only there were a proper democratic electoral process and a cohesive and able opposition. But there isn't.

When I said "headlines", I was referring to the front page. I'm never going to subscribe to the red tops (I include the Telegraph in that category) so their interiors aren't of interest to me. My experience with family members is that they want the Sun for its soccer coverage as opposed to its Brexiter opinion pieces.

I think your 40% figure is wildly exaggerated. I'd say that it's a heady mixture of people who wanted Brexit resolved, standard blue voters and Brexit diehards. Core voters don't often waver unless their party is seen as being toxic as Labour were in 2019. I don't see there being a repeat of 2019 in 2024.