Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

yagan

Lumen wrote: »

Ireland's low corp taxes haven't done much to boost entrepreneurship, which IMO is rather weak in Ireland despite pensions and entrepreneurs relief also being favourable.

You can accumulate at least 3.2m of wealth whilst paying only about 22% tax via these reliefs, and yet young, talented people too often just want to work for multinationals.

In any case, aside from one man band tax avoidance, people don't generally start businesses with an eye on corp tax. It's a compulsion.

I think it's because the main drive is job security in a nation that's not used to it. During the last outflow it was mostly people fleeing property related businesses, but the multinationals continued hiring during that period.

I wish I could find the piece I'd read before about how what's described as startups in London are in most instances just tax workarounds, essentially ghost companies that never employ anyone and are as quickly replaced by the next startup of convenience.

listermint

Lumen wrote: »

Those tax rises make sense to me, since they affect profits rather than costs. They shouldn't affect struggling businesses, inward investment or startups since none of those make profits in the short term. The UK isn't a tax haven like Ireland is (was?) so shouldn't lose that business.

Pump the brakes the UK is the second biggest tax haven in the world after the US.

Where did you get the notion they are not ? Carefully crafted consumption of UK based media I'd imagine. Do a five minute Google. Theyve used their off shore territories to funnel and store funds. Ireland doesn't come close to the value of tax avoidance. Plus were still in the EU and all the compliance that goes with. Brexit is in part to continue the tax scam and point fingers everywhere else to avoid the scrutiny.

Retr0gamer

Our bankruptcy laws aren't really conductive to entrepreneurship either. Of the venture fails and you are solely liable you are effectively in financial prison for a couple of years.

FreudianSlippers

Retr0gamer wrote: »

Our bankruptcy laws aren't really conductive to entrepreneurship either. Of the venture fails and you are solely liable you are effectively in financial prison for a couple of years.

Uh, just incorporate a limited company.

Sam Russell

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Retr0gamer wrote: »

Our bankruptcy laws aren't really conductive to entrepreneurship either. Of the venture fails and you are solely liable you are effectively in financial prison for a couple of years.

Uh, just incorporate a limited company.

The limited liability company does not protect the founders being forced to sign personal guaranties to get access to needed funds.

What is even more insidious, is that those personal guaranties are not defined exactly in law or practice.

If a guaranty is signed for say €100k, but the company owes €250 k when the bank calls in the guaranty, what happens? Frequently, for small one man band type companies, the demarcation between company and individual is blurred, particularly when push comes to shove. So, a failing business, or just one facing an uphill event, is not the place to be and particularly so if the bank moves from friend to foe.

At least the Revenue have become more understanding.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Let's get back on topic please.

Hurrache

This is a bizarre claim. What did these people think the years of negotiations which lead to a deal at Christmas were for? This is the same minister who has been saying that the issues are not Brexit related, but they're because of Covid, implying there is actually no underlying problem with trade. The 'permanent solution' will kick in March at the end of the current grace period.

https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1351451269299384321

edit: Here he is this morning making the Covid claim, and not pulled up on it.
https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1351442170046242816

signostic

Headline in the the pro Brexit rag the Daily Express "Ireland urges EU to scrap Brexit deal rules - trade expert hints bloc could CAVE already". Reading some the posts in the comments section are hilarious.

Lumen

listermint wrote: »

Pump the brakes the UK is the second biggest tax haven in the world after the US.

Where did you get the notion they are not ? Carefully crafted consumption of UK based media I'd imagine. Do a five minute Google. Theyve used their off shore territories to funnel and store funds. Ireland doesn't come close to the value of tax avoidance. Plus were still in the EU and all the compliance that goes with. Brexit is in part to continue the tax scam and point fingers everywhere else to avoid the scrutiny.

Yeah OK, allow me to backpedal somewhat. Both the UK and Ireland facilitate tax avoidance, but Ireland is ahead of the UK on this index...

https://www.corporatetaxhavenindex.org/en/introduction/cthi-2019-results

...and obvs is doing more relative to size of economy. Hence GNI*

Anyway, this bit of the discussion started with the effects of the proposal of the UK govt to increase their corp tax rates, and TBH neither the UK or Ireland's headline rates have anything to do with BEPS or other tax avoidance shenanigans.

So I stand by the point that an increase in headline corp tax rates is relatively harmless compared to many of the "book balancing" alternatives.

I think this is just about on-topic w.r.t how the UK is positioning its economy for the new world outside the EU, but happy to leave it alone if not.

Professor Moriarty

signostic wrote: »

Headline in the the pro Brexit rag the Daily Express "Ireland urges EU to scrap Brexit deal rules - trade expert hints bloc could CAVE already". Reading some the posts in the comments section are hilarious.

As usual with The Express, when you read down through the article it turns out to be a nothingburger. The Irish government has made a "technical query" wrt country of origin rules. That's it. Nothing more. Apart from M&S, supermarkets are saying that there isn't any major problem in stocking their shelves.

It's a rag. It's headlines are designed to stir up anger. Every single headline. It's a pathetic piece of crap. I often wonder how its 'journalists' can look themselves in the mirror.

yagan

Just reading a piece in the Irish Times about costs for studying in the UK, €10K a year in Scotland now, matching fees in England. Plus with UK qualifications no longer receiving automatic recognition in the EU I can't see many Irish going now when there's plenty of uni options taught via English throughout the EU. At least fees for NI will be under €5k.

It wasn't clear how much GB students would pay for Irish fees, but seemed to suggest that charges were reciprocal, so maybe €10k a year to study in Ireland. I can imagine many GB students may opt for an EU recognised qualification in Ireland for their long term prospects, a direct reversal of the traditional Irish Sea third level dynamic.

Professor Moriarty

yagan wrote: »

Just reading a piece in the Irish Times about costs for studying in the UK, €10K a year in Scotland now, matching fees in England. Plus with UK qualifications no longer receiving automatic recognition in the EU I can't see many Irish going now when there's plenty of uni options taught via English throughout the EU. At least fees for NI will be under €5k.

It wasn't clear how much GB students would pay for Irish fees, but seemed to suggest that charges were reciprocal, so maybe €10k a year to study in Ireland. I can imagine many GB students may opt for an EU recognised qualification in Ireland for their long term prospects, a direct reversal of the traditional Irish Sea third level dynamic.

Irish universities will be flooded with EU Erasmus applications.

yagan

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Irish universities will be flooded with EU Erasmus applications.

True. Plus if GB students do come to Ireland I assume they won't be able to avail of erasmus, only NI students are being covered by the Irish government.

breatheme

To be fair, I'm not entirely sure Irish universities are ready to take the lion's share of the student population. They will certainly take in a lot, but I expect the Netherlands, Germany and Scandinavia to take way more.

Maybe at the Undergraduate level Ireland could take a good chunk, though, given that most member states tend to do the undergrad in their national language... but even then, there will need to be a lot of investment in the infrastructure of Ireland's universities before they can really profit from that market.

Professor Moriarty

yagan wrote: »

True. Plus if GB students do come to Ireland I assume they won't be able to avail of erasmus, only NI students are being covered by the Irish government.

No, Britain is out of Erasmus. Which means that if you are an Erasmus student who wants to study in an English speaking country in the EU then you have only one simple option. Which is very good news for Irish universities and local economies. There is the Turing alternative but that has yet to be seen to be working.

yagan

breatheme wrote: »

To be fair, I'm not entirely sure Irish universities are ready to take the lion's share of the student population. They will certainly take in a lot, but I expect the Netherlands, Germany and Scandinavia to take way more.

Maybe at the Undergraduate level Ireland could take a good chunk, though, given that most member states tend to do the undergrad in their national language... but even then, there will need to be a lot of investment in the infrastructure of Ireland's universities before they can really profit from that market.

Plus we don't know how WFH will shape third level from home. Certainly the sciences will still need attendance, but so many courses in business and humanities can be completed remotely now.

There's supposedly been a massive boom in online language tutoring during these lockdowns which may provide a far more focused immersive facetime for language learners.

I won't be surprised if the free Eurorail travel evolves to cover cultural immersion for all young EU citizens, kinda of like a non university erasmus.

Also Erasmus+ now includes Australia, Canada and NZ so we won't be the only option for those wanting an English language environment.

One thing is certain though we'll definitely be getting more yanks for who Irish international fees can still be cheaper than domestic fees in the USA, with the added bonus of potentially getting a residency foothold in the EU.

schmoo2k

Lumen wrote: »

Yeah OK, allow me to backpedal somewhat. Both the UK and Ireland facilitate tax avoidance, but Ireland is ahead of the UK on this index...

https://www.corporatetaxhavenindex.org/en/introduction/cthi-2019-results

...and obvs is doing more relative to size of economy. Hence GNI*

Anyway, this bit of the discussion started with the effects of the proposal of the UK govt to increase their corp tax rates, and TBH neither the UK or Ireland's headline rates have anything to do with BEPS or other tax avoidance shenanigans.

So I stand by the point that an increase in headline corp tax rates is relatively harmless compared to many of the "book balancing" alternatives.

I think this is just about on-topic w.r.t how the UK is positioning its economy for the new world outside the EU, but happy to leave it alone if not.

Didn't the Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich get shutdown Jan 2020?

yagan

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, Britain is out of Erasmus. Which means that if you are an Erasmus student who wants to study in an English speaking country in the EU then you have only one simple option. Which is very good news for Irish universities and local economies. There is the Turing alternative but that has yet to be seen to be working.

It's obvious that Turing thing will come to nothing because when GB uni's are seeking partners those EU/EEA/Swiss colleges will tell them do it via erasmus.

Maybe some of the ex empire might oblige the UK in this, but if it's like the UK tax office requiring all exporters to the UK to collect taxes on their behalf I can imagine not many bothering with the extra paperwork when erasmus will give Australian and Canadian students the opportunity immerse themselves in the non anglosphere.

Padre_Pio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, Britain is out of Erasmus. Which means that if you are an Erasmus student who wants to study in an English speaking country in the EU then you have only one simple option. Which is very good news for Irish universities and local economies. There is the Turing alternative but that has yet to be seen to be working.

Erasmus is an exchange program.

Are there so many Irish students looking to study abroad that we could take the quantity coming from Europe?

tubercolossus

Lumen wrote: »

Some light entertainment courtesy of Tony Parson's take on border sandwich-gate.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13763001/after-britain-is-vaccinated-save-europe/

Jesus. Every time I read anything by him I regret once more ever reading one of his treacly, sentimental novels about the heroic Eastenders of Lahndahn...

FreudianSlippers

schmoo2k wrote: »

Didn't the Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich get shutdown Jan 2020?

I think technically removed before that, but they couldn't change the tax policy for those already using it until it could be wound-down which I think you're correct the final use of it was early 2020.

tubercolossus

Lumen wrote: »

The UK isn't a tax haven like Ireland is (was?) so shouldn't lose that business.

No? I've read that London is the real wild west of international finance. It's a conduit for a lot of the world's dodgiest money.

yagan

tubercolossus wrote: »

No? I've read that London is the real wild west of international finance. It's a conduit for a lot of the world's dodgiest money.

Excellent documentary called The Spiders Web: Britain's Second Empire about how Britain has been diverting tax to offshore havens like in the Caymans and Channel isles since the end of empire.

listermint

yagan wrote: »

Excellent documentary called The Spiders Web: Britain's Second Empire about how Britain has been diverting tax to offshore havens like in the Caymans and Channel isles since the end of empire.

Second biggest in the globe. As they are offshore its a constant handy 'out' to point the finger at other locations, US does exactly the same thing off their southern coast.

newman10

yagan wrote: »

Excellent documentary called The Spiders Web: Britain's Second Empire about how Britain has been diverting tax to offshore havens like in the Caymans and Channel isles since the end of empire.

Chickens starting to roost ??

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/18/uk-launches-inquiry-alleged-corruption-british-virgin-islands

ancapailldorcha

newman10 wrote: »

Chickens starting to roost ??

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/18/uk-launches-inquiry-alleged-corruption-british-virgin-islands

Mod: Please use links to substantiate a point rather than just pasting them. Thanks.

Professor Moriarty

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Erasmus is an exchange program.

Are there so many Irish students looking to study abroad that we could take the quantity coming from Europe?

There are quite a few. Especially people doing languages or a language as a subject in their degree for instance. The important part is that Irish universities won't have to compete with British universities and so will always have a full quota.

listermint

We are but 3 weeks in to Brexit. Do folks reckon we might see more business murmorings and thus maybe public next month. I think we are in a lull phase now were prestocks in last quarter are holding out, but the tangent between logistics companies refusing to come in and the checks going on has to hit them end of this month in some real way.

Are there going to be questions come February when christmas slow down is a memory.

bob mcbob

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All to be revealed in the next few weeks apparently. Led by a lad with Ulster Unionist roots.
https://www.politico.eu/article/john-bew-global-britain-uk-eu/

Or maybe it was revealed 8 years ago by the new Business minister

Along with international trade secretary Liz Truss, foreign secretary Dominic Raab and home secretary Priti Patel, he wrote a booklet called Britannia Unchained in 2012, which caused a stir with its criticism of Britain’s supposedly lazy workforce.

They described the British as “among the worst idlers in the world”, criticised unionisation, and said “fear of unemployment and unfair dismissal has led to a system of employment law that discourages small businesses from taking a risk”.

Britannia Unchained also dismissed the idea of actively trying to narrow the north-south divide, which is now official Tory government policy.


https://www.ft.com/content/3054c38a-4faf-4b2e-88d4-93faa55e6d10

These guys are supposedly "ultra-radical" - they are essentially expousing the same policies as Thatcher did in the 1980's. This has been the Tory guiding mantra ever since. Every new radical spouts the same issue and the same solution - when it does not work, then the next "radical" off the Tory party production line comes up with the same sh*t.

This isn't groupthink it is intellectual bankruptcy.

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” - Einstein

ambro25

listermint wrote: »

We are but 3 weeks in to Brexit. Do folks reckon we might see more business murmorings and thus maybe public next month. I think we are in a lull phase now were prestocks in last quarter are holding out, but the tangent between logistics companies refusing to come in and the checks going on has to hit them end of this month in some real way.

Are there going to be questions come February when christmas slow down is a memory.

Very much so. I expect the drib-drab of bad news started by Scottish fishermen, and prolonged by pork and other livestock farmers now, to continue by sector, according to criticality of trade movements in and out the UK.

With a real and mass uproar once the ISPM15 issue starts to kicks in. I mentioned it yesterday or the day before: it's as much of a monster lying in wait, as the extra paperwork was on the run-up to 1st Jan. Freight experts reckon it will cause serious border crossing issues for up to 1 in 3 arctics, considering it's completely independent of <whatever> is stacked on the pallet. I haven't seen any today or yesterday, but there were noises of a hauliers strike in the UK (à la fuel protest back in the day) at the weekend, getting organised before long.

That's all real short-term, up to May-June '21. You then factor in business failures or closures and job losses starting in parallel. And the ripple effect (firms closing, causing supplier firms to fail and close, and respective local ecosystems of services).

It has me worried because, far from provoking pitchfork runs at Westminster and Downing Street, populists never do better, than when a national economy is on its arse. It's easier to (continue to-) divide and rule when everyone is angry and increasingly desperate.