Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

serfboard

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Lords, I think, could dealy the Bill for up to 12 months - certainly beyond the end of transition on 31 December. But whether that is politically likely I can't say.

(Lord) Michael Howard, a Brexiteer, blasted the British government in the House Of Lords yesterday for proposing to break an international treaty. He was on The World Tonight on Radio 4 last night and said he doesn't think that the Bill will pass in the House Of Lords - he said that he, and a number of his fellow conservatives will vote against it, and anyway, the Conservatives don't have a majority in the House Of Lords.

I'd speculate that Cummings knew this all along, and that this whole thing is a theatrical charade, red meat to the base, following the "They don't like it up 'em!" political strategy.

To take that to an even further edge of speculation, this could in fact, precede yet another Johnson U-turn, of which he's had plenty so far, and this is one last show of defiance.

A strategy not unlike what previous British governments have done vis-a-vis Northern Ireland - whenever the British government was about to "sell out" the unionists, the queen was dispatched to the north for cover and reassurance.

Nody

Well looks like the Japan - UK trade deal is more or less sorted; as expected it was a great win for the UK with them getting better terms then what they had while in EU, oh wait...

Under the agreement, there will be no auto tariffs on Japanese cars in 2026, after the tariff rate is gradually lowered, in line with the EU-Japan agreement. Tariffs on some auto and railroad parts will be eliminated ahead of the EU-Japan agreement, benefiting Japanese parts makers.

Imports of blue cheese from the U.K. will be guaranteed a tariff at the same level stipulated in the EU-Japan agreement.

A system will be created to import cheese at a higher tariff but later refund the supplier. Cheese importers will be charged a 29.8% tariff when they import from the U.K. Cheese importers will get a refund if the total import amount at the end of the year is below an agreed-to level. The refund will make the tariff equal to a 24.2% rate between Japan and the EU.

The rules for the digital sector will feature less government involvement, compared with the EU-Japan deal. Algorithms and cryptography will be included in the list of areas where governments cannot require companies to disclose information.

Hence sum up is; Japan gets better tariffs faster, cheese gets equal or higher tariffs than EU deal and less oversight on digital sector which Japan wanted. Yup, clearly superior deal compared to what they had access to in EU.

5GMadeMeDoIt

serfboard wrote: »

(Lord) Michael Howard, a Brexiteer, blasted the British government in the House Of Lords yesterday for proposing to break an international treaty. He was on The World Tonight on Radio 4 last night and said he doesn't think that the Bill will pass in the House Of Lords - he said that he, and a number of his fellow conservatives will vote against it, and anyway, the Conservatives don't have a majority in the House Of Lords.

I'd speculate that Cummings knew this all along, and that this whole thing is a theatrical charade, red meat to the base, following the "They don't like it up 'em!" political strategy.

To take that to an even further edge of speculation, this could in fact, precede yet another Johnson U-turn, of which he's had plenty so far, and this is one last show of defiance.

A strategy not unlike what previous British governments have done vis-a-vis Northern Ireland - whenever the British government was about to "sell out" the unionists, the queen was dispatched to the north for cover and reassurance.

I think you may be correct. Anyone know what Cumming's attitude towards the HOL is? Everyone, myself included, is assuming this is an assault on the EU. Could it be an assault on the HOL after they scupper No Deal Brexit?

Enzokk

5GMadeMeDoIt wrote: »

I think you may be correct. Anyone know what Cumming's attitude towards the HOL is? Everyone, myself included, is assuming this is an assault on the EU. Could it be an assault on the HOL after they scupper No Deal Brexit?

No-FTA deal happens if there is no agreed deal. This doesn't need the House of Lords to block anything, it will just happen if Frost keeps to his stringent lines. Trade deals have no oversight in parliament, they voted for that earlier this year, so parliament itself also cannot stop no-FTA deal from happening like they did the article 50 no-deal.

5GMadeMeDoIt

Enzokk wrote: »

No-FTA deal happens if there is no agreed deal. This doesn't need the House of Lords to block anything, it will just happen if Frost keeps to his stringent lines. Trade deals have no oversight in parliament, they voted for that earlier this year, so parliament itself also cannot stop no-FTA deal from happening like they did the article 50 no-deal.

True. But if they want a No-FTA deal there's other less self-destructive ways to get it rather than introducing a bill that breaks international law. 'We're not giving those bloody Euros all our fish' for example.

Peregrinus

5GMadeMeDoIt wrote: »

True. But if they want a No-FTA deal there's other less self-destructive ways to get it rather than introducing a bill that breaks international law. 'We're not giving those bloody Euros all our fish' for example.

This.

The only explanations I can think of for this move are:

(a) it's another U-turn by Johnson, who initially intended to implement the WA but is under pressure from the right-wing loon faction of the Tory party and needs to placate them; or

(b) it's a giant floodlit 10-storey fxck-you to the EU which Johnson hopes will make them withdraw from FTA talks because he wants (1) to crash the FTA talks, but (2) to give colour to the more morally-debased Brexiters who will pretend to believe that Johnson hasn't crashed them and the EU has.

Sam Russell

5GMadeMeDoIt wrote: »

I think you may be correct. Anyone know what Cumming's attitude towards the HOL is? Everyone, myself included, is assuming this is an assault on the EU. Could it be an assault on the HOL after they scupper No Deal Brexit?

They can overcome their problem in the House of Lords by creating lots and lots of peers that agree with them. Lord Howerd, who spoke so vehemently against this bill yesterday, proposed creating more Lords when the Tories could not overcome the opposition to the Benn Act last year.

Plus ca change, etc.

johnnyskeleton

The simple explanation is marketing. Brexit is good for business for Boris and co., and the UK people are getting fatigued by talk of trade deals etc.

They tried the fishing stuff for a while but when the EU said "fine, no fish no deal" that fizzled out and other than a few internet brexiteers and the Express, no one cared. So they decided to shift to Northern Ireland and perhaps overshot the mark a bit, because suddenly and somewhat incomprehensively all the Brexit issues are once again back on the menu.

The integrity of the United Kingdom as a whole, EU trying to seize territory, UK Parliamentary sovereignty, the nasty remainers and their legal advice, tired old Theresa May bitter that she lost, the unelected House of Lords threatening to scupper it, legal action in pesky courts etc.

All the key issues that engage the Brexiteer voters have been ignited.

If you are to look at this move in solely domestic UK politics terms, it scores 100%. It simply couldn't have been better. Obviously it marks the end of the UK as a credible Western European nation, but that has been building for a long time.

fash

How believable is the "we Tories want freedom to engage in state aid - in particular for developing $1 trillion IT companies" assertion?
Is that really what Cummings wants or just a point to pivot on (for whatever purpose)? (Ok fine, we Tories are willing not to pour state aid into things).

Leroy42

fash wrote: »

How believable is the "we Tories want freedom to engage in state aid - in particular for developing $1 trillion IT companies" assertion?
Is that really what Cummings wants or just a point to pivot on (for whatever purpose)? (Ok fine, we Tories are willing not to pour state aid into things).

If that is what they wanted they there would be no reason not to provide their State Aid policies as repeatedly requested by the EU.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

If that is what they wanted they there would be no reason not to provide their State Aid policies as repeatedly requested by the EU.

They haven't written them down yet, its just something that Cummings said after a third glass of vino.

johnnyskeleton

fash wrote: »

How believable is the "we Tories want freedom to engage in state aid - in particular for developing $1 trillion IT companies" assertion?
Is that really what Cummings wants or just a point to pivot on (for whatever purpose)? (Ok fine, we Tories are willing not to pour state aid into things).

That would be a further nail in the coffin of a UK-USA trade deal.

At it's most benign, the UK wants to just be put in a position where they are not bound by any trade deals, and will be able to build it up again from scratch. So it isn't that they actually want to engage in state aid, it's that they want to have the option, which they will presumably trade away just as soon as they start entering negotiations. But they want that moment of "freedom".

Sam Russell

Martyn Turner has a good take on it today. Worth a look.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/martyn-turner-1.4351729

johnnyskeleton

Nody wrote: »

Well looks like the Japan - UK trade deal is more or less sorted; as expected it was a great win for the UK with them getting better terms then what they while in EU, oh wait...

Hence sum up is; Japan gets better tariffs faster, cheese gets equal or higher tariffs than EU deal and less oversight on digital sector which Japan wanted. Yup, clearly superior deal compared to what they had access to in EU.

It is being reported in a very strange way, even by reputable news sources:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54116606

This states that it will increase UK GDP by 0.07%. But as you set out above, and other sources state, the only differences between the UK-Japan and the EU-Japan deals are in limited sectors.

I can't imagine that those limited differences would add 0.07% to UK GDP. If UK cheese is subject to higher tarrifs than EU cheese, then how does that help the UK? Likewise, zero tarrifs on cars and car parts will not help the UK economy any more than it currently is.

The only explanation that I can think of is that the 0.07% increase in GDP is the difference between if post Brexit UK has a trade deal with Japan vs no trade deal. I.e. it is not an increase in GDP over what they had as part of the EU. They are basically not losing that 0.07% of GDP by losing the EU-Japan access.

BBC wrote:

And with trade with Japan accounting for just 2% of the UK's total, the expected boost to GDP of 0.07% over the long term is a tiny fraction of what might be lost from leaving the EU.

If I'm right above, then this quote from the article is very misleading. To describe it as them gaining 0.07% GDP, but is only a tiny fraction of what is lost by leaving the EU implies that this deal with Japan is a boost to the UK economy relative to when they were in the EU, but it is just them staying more or less the same, and is measured as a boost from their post Brexit position instead.

johnnyskeleton

Sam Russell wrote: »

Martyn Turner has a good take on it today. Worth a look.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/martyn-turner-1.4351729

Bit unfair. Most Americans are trustworthy and honest, with some notable prominent exceptions.

Honesty for British people has always been aspirational at best, and highly interpretative at worst. While Boris may have been born in the USA of Greek extraction, he is the perfect embodiment of the British upper class, with all of their mannerisms and values.

Snickers Man

J Mysterio wrote: »

the reality is that Johnson and co were given a thumping majority by the British people to implement this mania.

True but only if you think that the British electoral system produces a fair representation of what the majority of people believe and what actions they are willing to support....

J Mysterio wrote: »

I beleive the entire system now needs to be rebuilt. It's antiquated and ridiculous in many ways. e.g. change the voting system, abolish or reform the Lords and peerages etc.....

Time for a revolution of sorts.

....and clearly you don't. And rightly so. It's ridiculous. The "One-choice-only" model that is enforced by the electoral systems of the UK and the United States (although very different in detail, they tend to produce similar outcomes). One votes for the lesser of two evils.

It also infects political discourse, in that a disproportionate effort is spent simply vilifying or denigrating the opposition, and especially its leader. IF you can trash his/her reputation in enough minds, there is no alternative for them to choose but you. The chances of "disruption" are minimised.

J Mysterio wrote: »

The UK as an entity will probably end soon anyway due to this never ending lunacy.

Not without blood, I fear. And quite a lot of it too. And not just in Northern Ireland, not that the Brits give a tinker's curse about that.

J Mysterio

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

If you are to look at this move in solely domestic UK politics terms, it scores 100%. It simply couldn't have been better.

I just can't agree. This move risks another division in the Tory party. That is why Boris is adressing the party today

Sam Russell

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

Martyn Turner has a good take on it today. Worth a look.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/martyn-turner-1.4351729

Bit unfair. Most Americans are trustworthy and honest, with some notable prominent exceptions.

Honesty for British people has always been aspirational at best, and highly interpretative at worst. While Boris may have been born in the USA of Greek extraction, he is the perfect embodiment of the British upper class, with all of their mannerisms and values.

Did you read the bit in the corner - drawing the link with Trump? He is also saying Johnson is not English - and so does not subscribe their mores - (or any).

Johnson has been caught lying many times - he was even sacked by The (London) Times for it, so I do not think it is at all unfair. He also wrote articles for the Telegraph with many falsehoods about the EU over decades. So honesty and truthfulness are not attributes of his.

He cannot even admit how many kids he has.

Strazdas

Interesting to hear that if Brexit UK thinks it can shaft the EU via a trade deal, they can think again. If they (Brexit UK) sign one and then attempt to renege on aspects of it, the EU can legally pull the entire deal and are not bound by law to stick to it.

johnnyskeleton

J Mysterio wrote: »

I just can't agree. This move risks another division in the Tory party. That is why Boris is adressing the party today

Last year Boris quelled backbench rebellion by removing the whip from any dissenters and, when the election followed, ultimately they lost their seats. Ever since, the backbenchers have been as meek as lambs, at least when it comes to Brexit. There has been growing disquiet for Boris over the last few months, mostly due to his handling of Covid and this was likely to come to a head sooner or later.

So if there is division in the Tory party at the moment, and I can't see any significant evidence that there is (occasional speechs from Heseltine and May etc, but no one threatening to vote against the government or resign from the party), then addressing it now is dealing with it sooner rather than later. Moreover, Boris can make it about Brexit, so anyone who disagrees with him is a hated remainer.

Ultimately though, this all just reinforces the fact that it is a matter of domestic politics and has little or nothing to do with negotiation with the EU.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Did you read the bit in the corner - drawing the link with Trump? He is also saying Johnson is not English - and so does not subscribe their mores - (or any).

Yes. Comparing Boris and Trump is hardly revelatory. Likewise no one disputes that Boris is dishonest.

But the point being that Boris being deceiptful is not due to him being American, it is a classic trait of the English upper class. So Martyn Turner is doing a disservice to the Americans with that cartoon which is basically conveying that Boris is not actually English so is not bound to be honest. Culturally and morally, he is the epitome of Britishness.

It was said in the Trump/Clinton debate, that you take Trump seriously but not literally, and you take Clinton literally but not seriously. Well when it comes to Boris, you take him neither literally nor seriously.

Sam Russell

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Yes. Comparing Boris and Trump is hardly revelatory. Likewise no one disputes that Boris is dishonest.

But the point being that Boris being deceiptful is not due to him being American, it is a classic trait of the English upper class. So Martyn Turner is doing a disservice to the Americans with that cartoon which is basically conveying that Boris is not actually English so is not bound to be honest. Culturally and morally, he is the epitome of Britishness.

It was said in the Trump/Clinton debate, that you take Trump seriously but not literally, and you take Clinton literally but not seriously. Well when it comes to Boris, you take him neither literally nor seriously.

Well, there is a long standing English idiom to describe behaviour that is dishonest - 'That's not cricket!' - but that has long lost its effect since cricket has been made professional and the basic game has be reformed into various formats to get more money out of it. Cheating at cricket is not that unusual - the Australians tampering with the ball as an example.

It is also an English idiom that 'An Englishman's word is his bond!' which is obviously tosh, particularly with the English upper class in mind. Sure the very idea of a cad is personified in a dishonest toff.

However, I do not want to drive the thread off topic - we all know most Brexiteers are dishonest - some more than others, and some by ignorance and stupidity and some deliberately so.

54and56

This Internal Market Bill reminds me of a well past it out of shape boxer up against a faster, smarter and bigger 29 year old in his prime who knows he's on the ropes and comes up with one last haymaker of a punch to see if that will prevent the inevitable.

johnnyskeleton

54and56 wrote: »

This Internal Market Bill reminds me of a well past it out of shape boxer up against a faster, smarter and bigger 29 year old in his prime who knows he's on the ropes and comes up with one last haymaker of a punch to see if that will prevent the inevitable.

A more apt analogy would be that they tried to punch back but ended up punching themselves. And then maybe soiling themselves as their opponent looks on horrified.

Do the Westminster Parliament seriously think that it is in their interests to start making noises about how Northern Ireland is their territory and cannot be treated separately, even if that means breaching the Good Friday Agreement?

Do they really think that because everyone in Northern Ireland says they want the peace to remain, that that means that there is no risk to the peace by their behaviour?

54and56

This will keep the News Channels and Papers busy over the weekend and keep the pressure on BoJo & Co :P

An Ciarraioch

The European Parliament pulls no punches - "full implementation of all provisions of the WA", and states that they won't approve any agreement if the IM Bill is passed:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20200907IPR86513/statement-of-the-uk-coordination-group-and-ep-political-group-leaders

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The European Parliament pulls no punches - "full implementation of all provisions of the WA", and states that they won't approve any agreement if the IM Bill is passed:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20200907IPR86513/statement-of-the-uk-coordination-group-and-ep-political-group-leaders

Barnier has to continue negotiating at the same time. This will be used against the UK in the negotiations and that is why it was another extreme own goal of the UK parliament to vote to not have a say on the future trade deals. It is not about parliament dictating but giving negotiators an out.

"Yes that sounds good to me, but my parliament/senate/congress would never agree and vote for it so unfortunately it is off the table." That way the negotiator keeps his good relationship because he doesn't have to say no.

CelticRambler

With reference to Brexit being the domino that would destroy the European project, it's interesting to note that the EU's favourite currency is currently trading very favourably against the British Pound, the US Dollar, the Swiss Franc, the Japanese Yen ...

I suppose it's all a ruse to cash in on the inevitable crash of the Euro when the markets realise the genius of the Trump-Johnson-Cummings unilateral treaty-ripping strategy. :pac:

ExMachina1000

The UK signed a new deal with Japan increasing trade by almost 16 billion pounds per year.

They only need another 100 of these

54and56

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

The UK signed a new deal with Japan increasing trade by almost 16 billion pounds per year.

They only need another 100 of these

Nope, it hasn't been confirmed it's 16 billion per year, just that it's worth 16 billion. That could be over many years.

You need to sell a lot of English cheese, English sparkling wine and Welsh lamb to get to 16 billion and that's without netting off the coast to HMRC of the reduction in tariffs fur Japanese car parts the UK had to give up in order to get some sort of deal to limp across the line.

Fuascailteoir

The implications of this and covid in real life situations is becoming clearer and tangible. I know a lot of people in london and they are starting to take a hit in earnings now. How sustainable that is when you have a 500-750 k mortgage is not hard to work out. What it will be like in January and the rest of the year for ordinary people will be horriric. All the stress about to be brought down on people for nothing