Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

listermint

BluePlanet wrote: »

Some of them, particularly online just want to injure the EU and believe these are maneuvers to eventually break up the EU.
Ireland and the border presents a weak link, but they are surely eyeing sectoral mini deals in place of a FTA.

They are eyeing absolutely bizarre free market fundamentals. Make no mistake this is cult like behaviour. These are feeble minded people who think that social assistances and any government intervention is bad. But the sinister part of it is they've no problems with government intervention in terms of funding these private ambitions.

In short it's greed . Get rich quick schemes for solo individuals. It's never about picking oneself up by the Bootstraps. It's about how rich I can get by brining about systems that make it easy for me to get rich. No consideration for the consequences.

Free marketeers are never purists. Never. It's a facade of bull. ..

Seth Brundle

theguzman wrote: »

The UK appears to be walking away from the withdrawal agreement and heading swiftly for a hard brexit. Are we facing the spectre of a hard border retuning to Northern Ireland now?

In theory yes. However, the bill has to get through the House of Lords and is believed that it won't manage this. My own view is that this is the intention all along by Cummings. It's a form of grandstanding.
However, if I'm wrong and the HoL approve the bill then the talks with Europe will fail. Therefore the UK will not get a trade deal with the EU which means that the EU will require that its border with a third country (the UK) be protected. This would take time and by then, Hopefully, the UK will have copped on to itself.

Note that if a hard border is required then this will be entirely the fault of the UK and as violence can be expected, this will have been provoked by the UK.

ExMachina1000

Ireland will be paying more into the EU budget towards the hole left by the UK.

This will be on top of the "deal" that MM got for us where we will be paying an extra 2 billion euro a year.

Seth Brundle

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Ireland will be paying more into the EU budget towards the hole left by the UK.

This will be on top of the "deal" that MM got for us where we will be paying an extra 2 billion euro a year.

Oh God, not this again :rolleyes:
Woukd you rather we were poor again and were completely dependent on the EU rather than being wealthy and a contributor?

ExMachina1000

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Oh God, not this again :rolleyes:
Woukd you rather we were poor again and were completely dependent on the EU rather than being wealthy and a contributor?

Poor

Italy and Spain got a grant of 130 billion between them. MM got us a 2 billion a year bill

The UK are going to attract some serious investment when all of this settles down. Ireland backed by the EU is leading the fight against tech companies sending users data to the United states.
Data is everything. The tech giants rely on user data.

Seth Brundle

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Poor

Italy and Spain got a grant of 130 billion between them. MM got us a 2 billion a year bill

Ok. Off you go to Italy or Spain. I'm happy here being well educated, financially relatively well off and secure (as are everyone I know).
Bye!

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

The UK are going to attract some serious investment when all of this settles down. Ireland backed by the EU is leading the fight against tech companies sending users data to the United states.
Data is everything. The tech giants rely on user data.

The UK are showing the world that they cannot be trusted. That will not stand in their favour.
As for data, Ireland is an important hub terms of EU data protection. The EU rules are incredubly strong for the individual, thankfully.

ExMachina1000

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Ok. Off you go to Italy or Spain. I'm happy here being well educated, financially relatively well off and secure (as are everyone I know).
Bye!

You earned that yourself. The EU did nothing for you

ExMachina1000

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

You earned that yourself. The EU did nothing for you

Absolute statements just weaken your argument.

Seth Brundle

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

You earned that yourself. The EU did nothing for you

I would have not got that had Ireland not been a member of the EU.
If you really believe what you are posting then I suggest that you better inform yourself as to the benefits of EU membership.

ExMachina1000

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I would have not got that had Ireland not been a member of the EU.
If you really believe what you are posting then I suggest that you better inform yourself as to the benefits of EU membership.

I will politely decline your suggestion.

Seth Brundle

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I will politely decline your suggestion.

Fine have your blissful ignorance but you would be better off not posting about things you are not informed about.

murphaph

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Poor

Italy and Spain got a grant of 130 billion between them. MM got us a 2 billion a year bill

The UK are going to attract some serious investment when all of this settles down. Ireland backed by the EU is leading the fight against tech companies sending users data to the United states.
Data is everything. The tech giants rely on user data.

Would you also take the youth unemployment, creaking and collapsing infrastructure and some of the worst public housing in Europe which all plague much of Italy?

Talk about wanting to bite your nose off to spite your face.

Ireland is a great example, perhaps the very best example, of what the EU is all about. Peace and relative prosperity after decades (centuries) of violence and poverty.

ExMachina1000

murphaph wrote: »

Would you also take the youth unemployment, creaking and collapsing infrastructure and some of the worst public housing in Europe which all plague much of Italy?

Talk about wanting to bite your nose off to spite your face.

Ireland is a great example, perhaps the very best example, of what the EU is all about. Peace and relative prosperity after decades (centuries) of violence and poverty.

Italy is in the EU so why do they have these problems in that case?

The reason Ireland is a successful economy is because of multinationals basing themselves here. If the EU had their way we wouldn't have our special special corporate tax rate.

Our tax take is there in black and white. Multinationals made us what we are

fash

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Oh God, not this again :rolleyes:
Woukd you rather we were poor again and were completely dependent on the EU rather than being wealthy and a contributor?

Hey let's go back to being dependent on the UK - they were a very kind and decent lot and we doing well as their subjects, weren't we?

fash

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Italy is in the EU so why do they have these problems in that case?

Lack of political will since the 1980s - you should look into it- they used to be more wealthy than the UK at the time.

Enzokk

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Italy is in the EU so why do they have these problems in that case?

The reason Ireland is a successful economy is because of multinationals basing themselves here. If the EU had their way we wouldn't have our special special corporate tax rate.

Our tax take is there in black and white. Multinationals made us what we are

Or maybe it has something to do with Italy having 61 governments since WW2 and Ireland having had 33 since 1918? Short term politics and solutions from politicians who has a short shelf life.

Imreoir2

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Poor

Italy and Spain got a grant of 130 billion between them. MM got us a 2 billion a year bill

The UK are going to attract some serious investment when all of this settles down. Ireland backed by the EU is leading the fight against tech companies sending users data to the United states.
Data is everything. The tech giants rely on user data.

If the UK don't abide by EU data rules, then the tech companies based in the UK will only have a small market to play in as they wont have access to the EU.

If you want to be poor, perhaps you should think of moving the the UK, I hear they have great plans in that sphere.

ExMachina1000

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If the UK don't abide by EU data rules, then the tech companies based in the UK will only have a small market to play in as they wont have access to the EU.

If you want to be poor, perhaps you should think of moving the the UK, I hear they have great plans in that sphere.

Are you talking about American companies in Britain?
Their access wont change.

The UK might even move to undercut Irish corporation tax rate. A tax rate that the EU would love to see gone in the morning.

UK won't have to play by state aid rules either.
A battle Ireland fought so hard against the EU about

Patser

A question I have 'Is what's Johnson's new solution?'. The whole Northern Ireland protocol was there to prevent a border on the island of Ireland.

OK, so fine, Johnson and UK Govt now has an issue with 'border in Irish sea' and integrity of the Union. The internal Markets bill always them to unilaterally change things but to what.....?


That's if we ignore that this is a desperation bargaining chip, that some sort of skeleton deal will be cobbled together and the Bill is unlikely to pass.

But I'd love someone to ask Johnson what's his plan when his idea of the IM bill is available? Just to see what codswallop he comes out with.

Seth Brundle

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Are you talking about American companies in Britain?
Their access wont change.

The UK might even move to undercut Irish corporation tax rate. A tax rate that the EU would love to see gone in the morning.

UK won't have to play by state aid rules either.
A battle Ireland fought so hard against the EU about

...and without a deal with the EU, what will the UK do with everything they produce and subject to high tariffs?

ExMachina1000

Seth Brundle wrote: »

...and without a deal with the EU, what will the UK do with everything they produce and subject to high tariffs?

That is a different topic. I'm talking about how the UK leaving Europe could affect Ireland's golden goose.

Do you feel the EU will hand Ireland billions on an indefinite basis to soften the blow if such thing was to happen?

Nody

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Are you talking about American companies in Britain?
Their access wont change.

Wrong; they actually lose all access to EU data if EU don't approve UK data protection being strong enough and EU data will not be allowed to be hosted on a UK server. I suggest you look up Schrems II if you want to see a recent court case on the topic.

The UK might even move to undercut Irish corporation tax rate. A tax rate that the EU would love to see gone in the morning.

And that matters how? UK is out of EU; UK now competes with every other country in the world outside of EU for taxes including tax havens such as Bahamas. It only matters what the tax rates in in EU countries because you can't move the money out from EU without taxing if they are not an EU country.

UK won't have to play by state aid rules either.
A battle Ireland fought so hard against the EU about

Which is fine; they will be slammed by WTO court cases on the topic and USA will happily tariff the living daylight out of them for state aid. Or have you forgotten that USA took a state aid case against EU under WTO rules regarding Airbus for example? So yea; they can give unlimited state aid but all countries they trade with will put tariffs to compensate for it so the net result is negative for the UK (they pay money to companies who can't export competitively because tariffs on their products).

fash

Patser wrote: »

A question I have 'Is what's Johnson's new solution?'. The whole Northern Ireland protocol was there to prevent a border on the island of Ireland.

OK, so fine, Johnson and UK Govt now has an issue with 'border in Irish sea' and integrity of the Union. The internal Markets bill always them to unilaterally change things but to what.....?


That's if we ignore that this is a desperation bargaining chip, that some sort of skeleton deal will be cobbled together and the Bill is unlikely to pass.

But I'd love someone to ask Johnson what's his plan when his idea of the IM bill is available? Just to see what codswallop he comes out with.

His plan is a border between Ireland and NI and blame the EU for that - and ride things out in the UK until 2024.

fash

Nody wrote: »

And that matters how? UK is out of EU; UK now competes with every other country in the world outside of EU for taxes including tax havens such as Bahamas. It only matters what the tax rates in in EU countries because you can't move the money out from EU without taxing if they are not an EU country.

It also assumes that the EU won't set up its rules specifically to target the UK. Why would the EU not target the UK? What's in it for the EU not to do so? A friendly relationship with a trustworthy partner?

Infini

fash wrote: »

His plan is a border between Ireland and NI and blame the EU for that - and ride things out in the UK until 2024.

Doubt he'd be able to ride it out that long, between the collossal self inflicted economic damage, the diplomatic damage not to mention the sheer domestic pressures from both an invigorated Scottish Independence and a very likely Irish Reunification movement as well as a huge ton of domestic disorder from all their failures he'd be lucky to survive the middle of 2021.

fash

Infini wrote: »

Doubt he'd be able to ride it out that long, between the collossal self inflicted economic damage, the diplomatic damage not to mention the sheer domestic pressures from both an invigorated Scottish Independence and a very likely Irish Reunification movement as well as a huge ton of domestic disorder from all their failures he'd be lucky to survive the middle of 2021.

His plan can't be too gain leverage- he's burnt too many bridges to do anything other than reduce trust on EU side and hence prevent concessions. In any case, I really don't think there is time left to get an agreement.

Imreoir2

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Are you talking about American companies in Britain?
Their access wont change.

No, of course not, only upside right...
Choices don't have consequences, war is peace etc.

LuckyLloyd

ExMachina, with respect, your grasp of some fundamentals here is shaky.

Patser

fash wrote: »

His plan is a border between Ireland and NI and blame the EU for that - and ride things out in the UK until 2024.

That'd last until the 1st serious border incident- manufactured or fringe lunacy. Then all the spotlight will be back on Johnson.

Also that pretty much guarantees no US deal

fash

Patser wrote: »

That'd last until the 1st serious border incident- manufactured or fringe lunacy. Then all the spotlight will be back on Johnson.

Also that pretty much guarantees no US deal

In relation to border incidents - all they do is wait it out for EU to implement then do so themselves, blaming the EU for the breach and saying "you did so we did".
I honestly think they could plausibly swerve away from a US deal - too problematic, little upside, lots of headache (food standards, clear loss of sovereignty to be used against them) - as they recently stated.