Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

fash

There was a good suggestion for an EU move: aside from disagreeing that a blockade would ever be necessary or legal under the withdrawal Agreement, if the UK has any residual gears, in any case, EU gives confirmation that so long as the UK maintained equal, equivalent or better food standards, the UK would have approved third country listing status.

Let the UK government confirm that they plan to drop food standards but still want access.

Leroy42

Seems the Japan trade deal contains more State Aid restrictions than the UK were offering to the EU.

https://twitter.com/ftukpolitics/status/1305196564865060867?s=19

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

Seems the Japan trade deal contains more State Aid restrictions than the UK were offering to the EU.

https://twitter.com/ftukpolitics/status/1305196564865060867?s=19

But sovereignty... How dare Japan limit UK's sovereignty?! The people have spoken!!1

Charles Babbage

reslfj wrote: »

The person border UK-RoI will not change. It's not enforced on the island of Ireland and I believe, somewhat enforced/checked between the main islands i.e GB<->island of Ireland. This is CTA agreed and not relevant to the EU or the WA.



The CTA / Schengen border will be between the CTA members (Ireland or UK) and the Schengen country you'r travelling to/from.
For non-Schengen EU member, it will be the same as from/to Schengen members. Personal passport control - and in the future potential a visa waiver for UK citizens too.

Schengen membership isn't the same as EU membership. It's a Schengen treaty has just being integrated into the overall legal and adm. EU framework.
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/sites/homeaffairs/files/schengen_map.jpg

The NI protocol is about goods - a customs, a VAT, a regulatory, and a sanitary border.
In the case of a UK-EU FTA many/most/all tariffs may be reduced to zero, and VAT will use the EU VAT administration procedures. Regulatory+sanitary border will then be the only active borders. (the sanitary border GB->Ireland has been active in Larne (and Belfast) for very many years).

In addition there is a border for money, different excise duties in UK/RoI , mi/h vs km/s speeding, and some more. This is at the land border on Ireland and is mostly not enforced for privates persons.
People living at the land border can tell much more about the practical side of this.

Lars

What is the origin of this nonsense?
At present what enforcement of the border is needed for private persons? That is the whole point of the EU.
Speed limits are enforced to the same extent as anywhere else.

Leroy42

Nody wrote: »

But sovereignty... How dare Japan limit UK's sovereignty?! The people have spoken!!1

It just shows how desperate and, basically lying, the UK position is.

They heralded a trade agreement which actually limits them more than the WA agreement which is trying to tear the UK apart!

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

Seems the Japan trade deal contains more State Aid restrictions than the UK were offering to the EU.

https://twitter.com/ftukpolitics/status/1305196564865060867?s=19

Just saw that!! My god they must hate Peter Foster!
EU response should be "we only want you to agree to the same thing as you agreed with Japan"!

The Raging Bile Duct

Leroy42 wrote: »

Seems the Japan trade deal contains more State Aid restrictions than the UK were offering to the EU.

https://twitter.com/ftukpolitics/status/1305196564865060867?s=19

It looks like they put as much effort into reading this as they did the withdrawal agreement

Jizique

fash wrote: »

Just saw that!! My god they must hate Peter Foster!
EU response should be "we only want you to agree to the same thing as you agreed with Japan"!

You can see why he left the Telegraph

Leroy42

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

It looks like they put as much effort into reading this as they did the withdrawal agreement

the more I read about it the worse it actually is. I thonk the mere fact they got one at all is the positive to them but it is no better, and in some ways worse, than the EU.

So, it does show that UK is capable of getting deals, although I don't think anybody really expected it otherwise, but it also shows that there isn't some amazing global deal out there that was unavailable due to EU membership.

Also, the big thing, at least my understanding, is that it us very much focused on data and digital and actually could be considered a negative in terms of manufacturing, although not much difference than the EU deal.

But Brexit was promised on bringing manufacturing to UK, or least that is what many believe Brexit to be

Capt'n Midnight

They really are introducing new sub plots all the time. The season finale should be interesting.

Orkney to "seek self-determination" .. "in the event of any future constitutional change".

Spain pushes for Gibraltar to join Schengen area after Brexit transition ends

The British government, which handles the foreign affairs of the British overseas territory of Gibraltar, is expected to respond to the proposal in two to three weeks’ time, according to EU officials.

Capt'n Midnight

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

It looks like they put as much effort into reading this as they did the withdrawal agreement

The big concession was allowing EU parts to count according to rules of origin.

But it's not surprising when you remember Honda relies on 350 trucks arriving from the EU every day to keep it's UK factory going.

Other countries may not be so generous.

Rain Ascending

Leroy42 wrote: »

Seems the Japan trade deal contains more State Aid restrictions than the UK were offering to the EU.

https://twitter.com/ftukpolitics/status/1305196564865060867?s=19

From the reaction I've seen from trade experts on twitter, there is nothing hugely remarkable about the deal agreed in principle between the UK and Japan.

• The £15B p.a. of extra trade is the two-way total, with more extra Japanese exports than UK exports -- but that's okay since lower cost imports often help the efficiency of the importing country's industry and economy.
• The £1.5B p.a. extra GDP for the UK is neither huge nor insignificant -- it's typical of trade deals of this sort and frankly, is a reasonably good return on effort.
• It's important to note that the baseline for comparison for both these figures is not the per-Brexit position (with the EU-Japan trade deal), but the post-Brexit position with no trade deal between the UK and Japan. But this is a fact of life for any UK trade negotiator.
• It's mainly a roll-over deal, based on the EU-Japan trade deal, with a few smallish enhancements that suit the UK better. But, most of the extra £1.5B GDP probably arises from items in the the EU-Japan text.
• The hold-up over Stilton cheese was nothing out of the ordinary for trade deals, where politically sensitive, but economically insignificant items loom to the fore.
• From the FT article, it would appear that the state aid clauses are substantive, but not particularly strict.

So, really, not a bad job by an inexperienced UK team in a relatively short time-frame, dealing fairly well with a difficult hand (namely Brexit!) with some modest gains. A small appearance of normality in the craziness that is the British politic -- and frankly to be welcomed from the perspective of a very concerned/irritated next-door neighbour...

But then it gets dragged into the broader context of UK-EU relationships and it all goes nutty again. Of course, it is for the reasons we are discussing here now, i.e. the inconsistency with respect to a very much more contentious EU-UK negotiation. And, according to the FT article, we can throw in a split between the Frost-led team (based out of No 10, I'd guess) and Liz Truss's trade department. Both factors pointing to the basic core incompetency of the Johnson government.

The UK just can't win at the moment -- Brexit has tied it into knots.

View

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

They really are introducing new sub plots all the time. The season finale should be interesting.

Orkney to "seek self-determination" .. "in the event of any future constitutional change".

Spain pushes for Gibraltar to join Schengen area after Brexit transition ends

We should state we are going to join Schengen in a few years and push for NI to join it at the same time.

Capt'n Midnight

View wrote: »

We should state we are going to join Schengen in a few years and push for NI to join it at the same time.

The CTA is very handy for us.

But if the UK were to re-join the EU then we could insist on Schengen and get the best of both worlds.

Snickers Man

54and56 wrote: »

You need to sell a lot of English cheese, English sparkling wine and Welsh lamb to get to 16 billion and that's without netting off the coast to HMRC of the reduction in tariffs fur Japanese car parts the UK had to give up in order to get some sort of deal to limp across the line.

What genius thought it would be a good idea to base new export growth on selling cheese to a nation where 85-95% of the population is lactose intolerant?

ExMachina1000

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The CTA is very handy for us.

But if the UK were to re-join the EU then we could insist on Schengen and get the best of both worlds.

Personally I would prefer to not see Ireland sign up to become a Schengen zone member. We have a better control of immigration without

Capt'n Midnight

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Personally I would prefer to not see Ireland sign up to become a Schengen zone member. We have a better control of immigration without

Even though we are in the CTA everyone has to go through passport control in Dublin airport

Capt'n Midnight

Snickers Man wrote: »

What genius thought it would be a good idea to base new export growth on selling cheese to a nation where 85-95% of the population is lactose intolerant?

Blessed are the cheesemakers.

It's scary that they feel that need to present a win back in blighty.

Japan has only allowed some cheese. And yes it's not even clear that that much cheese would be bought. So it could be an expensive win.


But Liz has form on promising cheese exports so may have felt she needed to deliver no matter the cost.



UK cheese exports to Japan are worth ONE McLaren. And not even a top of the range one.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The big concession was allowing EU parts to count according to rules of origin.

But it's not surprising when you remember Honda relies on 350 trucks arriving from the EU every day to keep it's UK factory going.

Other countries may not be so generous.

Those parts going from the EU not Japan so they will still get the tariffs (which they have to collect under WTO rules) - assuming they go no-deal. Of course Honda are on their way back to Japan. So no gain and a loss of jobs anyway.

Leroy42

Cox, former AG, has come out against the Internal Bill.

It was his legal advice, or more accurately his failure to provide adequate legal cover, that wasva massive nail in TMs deal.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1305255453123850247?s=19

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

Those parts going from the EU not Japan so they will still get the tariffs (which they have to collect under WTO rules) - assuming they go no-deal. Of course Honda are on their way back to Japan. So no gain and a loss of jobs anyway.

It's in Japan's interest.

IF the UK don't piss off the EU it's likely they will get a similar deal for similar self interest reasons. Turkey follows EU rules.

The US, China and Russia are unlikely to be so forgiving.


And the above countries account for most of the UK's car exports.

johnnyskeleton

Snickers Man wrote: »

What genius thought it would be a good idea to base new export growth on selling cheese to a nation where 85-95% of the population is lactose intolerant?

What I find so strange is that the Japanese were so insistent on tarrifs on cheese from the UK (and indeed from the EU, from whose original trade deal the UK's deal is based).

Surely you want to protect domestic industries of value with tariffs. Putting tarrifs on something that they have no real domestic industry for i.e. dairy farming, but which consumers want in small quantities for specialised foreign dishes e.g. for pizzas and cheeseburgers and the like makes no sense.

amacca

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

What I find so strange is that the Japanese were so insistent on tarrifs on cheese from the UK (and indeed from the EU, from whose original trade deal the UK's deal is based).

Surely you want to protect domestic industries of value with tariffs. Putting tarrifs on something that they have no real domestic industry for i.e. dairy farming, but which consumers want in small quantities for specialised foreign dishes e.g. for pizzas and cheeseburgers and the like makes no sense.

Why give away anything when you dont have to....UK were desperate for the deal.

And not even for the deal itself but just to be able to say they got a deal.

10000maniacs

Seth Brundle wrote: »

In theory yes. However, the bill has to get through the House of Lords and is believed that it won't manage this. My own view is that this is the intention all along by Cummings. It's a form of grandstanding.
However, if I'm wrong and the HoL approve the bill then the talks with Europe will fail. Therefore the UK will not get a trade deal with the EU which means that the EU will require that its border with a third country (the UK) be protected. This would take time and by then, Hopefully, the UK will have copped on to itself.

Note that if a hard border is required then this will be entirely the fault of the UK and as violence can be expected, this will have been provoked by the UK.

If that was Cummings plan all along just to put a bit of bluster into the mix, the only thing that has been achieved is the confirmation that the Johnson government cannot be trusted under any circumstances. A high price to pay for this bluster.

reslfj

Leroy42 wrote: »

But Brexit was promised on bringing manufacturing to UK, or least that is what many believe Brexit to be

Blue collar work is increasingly being commoditized and can be performed and performed well in most of the world. This holds true even for most skilled labour.

A location/country has to provide a competitive advantage to attract incoming investment to manufacturing. If you will prevent productivity from being nothing but sweat, sweat and more sweat, having the optimal plant size and a workforce being able and willing to work smarter is the way to go.

Protecting yesterdays products and production is not going to be successful. Just look at the UK designed and built cars or the coal mines.

Closing borders / protectionism is awful and really only useful when offered as 'payment' in a 'quid pro quo' way when negotiating trade deals and concessions.

As long as factories remain (open) in the UK and they produce quality and acceptably priced products they may stay in the UK long term. But if production is moved to another country, say to Central Europe, it will never come back.

Lars

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

Cox, former AG, has come out against the Internal Bill.

I am surprised at the number of MPs reported to be considering only abstaining in this vote. Surely there is no more important matter upon which to have a "black or white" opinion than one's country's standing in the world? Abstaining in this vote especially as it changes the WA as put to the people in the last election, is Ultimate Chickenism.

VinLieger

CelticRambler wrote: »

I am surprised at the number of MPs reported to be considering only abstaining in this vote. Surely there is no more important matter upon which to have a "black or white" opinion than one's country's standing in the world? Abstaining in this vote especially as it changes the WA as put to the people in the last election, is Ultimate Chickenism.

How are you surprised, they may not agree with it but they are terrified of becoming a target of the brexiteers and ERG by being labeled a remoaner or anti-brexit which will happen for any Tory that votes against it. As usual with the Tory's its them first and country a distant second

fash

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/britains-co2-emissions-have-fallen-to-levels-last-seen-in-1890

There is a bit of good news bad news today

Basically UK CO2 levels have fallen to lowest in 140 years which is good but on the flipside the recession due to Covid and Brexit uncertainty is the deepest out of all the industrialised countries which is not so good. Notice decline started a few years back which in itself is a mix of good news such as renewables taking off + switch to gas + death of coal and bad news such as heavy industry leaving UK.

What for me is interesting in that is the comparison against population growth on that time- just before the famine the population of England was about 12 million I believe, having since risen to approx 56 million.

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

How are you surprised, they may not agree with it but they are terrified of becoming a target of the brexiteers and ERG by being labeled a remoaner or anti-brexit which will happen for any Tory that votes against it. As usual with the Tory's its them first and country a distant second

Yeah, and it isn't just Tories. Labour are scared stiff of sticking their head over the trench and in general anyone who expresses anything other than complete adherence to whatever the latest Brexit position is, regardless of the previous position to which of course they were 100% behind, is labelled a Remoaner.

There is little room for any discussion, certainly not a facts based discussion.

And this has been fully endorsed by the public. The MP's are really just reflecting the general view of the public.

Peregrinus

Labour is not backing the Bill. Starmer says they will be prepared to back it if the government "fixes the substantial cross-party concerns that have been raised about the internal market bill". Those concerns, I confidently predict, will include (but will not be limited to) the fact that the Bill will put the UK in violation of international law. The government will not "fix" these concerns and Labour will whip and vote against the Bill.