Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Podge_irl

Headshot wrote: »

Do we think if the Tories pass this that's EU done with the negotiations?

If it passes tonight, no. If it passes third reading then I would suspect even then no, but they will highlight that any and all discussions are contingent on it being revoked. They will not agree to anything while it is in law.

Shelga

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I can't see this bill getting through the House of Lords but it certainly won't improve relations, that's for sure!

I was wondering that. Won’t the HoL put the kibosh on this? They seem a bit saner overall.

PropJoe10

Shelga wrote: »

I was wondering that. Won’t the HoL put the kibosh on this? They seem a bit saner overall.

The Tories don't have a majority in the House of Lords and you'll have a fair few of them that'll vote against it as well.

Enzokk

I don't think the vote this evening changes anything in terms of the negotiations. The EU, as proposed by Podge_irl, will still continue the talks. However I don't think if the Tories passes this bill there will be a FTA agreed as they will not be looking for a deal.

What will be interesting is to see how the vote goes this evening, how many rebels will there be and will they have the whip withdrawn?

My guess is even if this passes there will be a u-turn later to get the deal over the line, or they don't want a deal so it doesn't matter and this is just a way to have an enemy from the guys that only have a strategy to campaign against an enemy and no plan to actually govern.

Thargor

Why are they all on crutches and in casts on the live view of the Commons? Theres 4 of them there with broken legs...

Professor Moriarty

Thargor wrote: »

Why are they all on crutches and in casts on the live view of the Commons? Theres 4 of them there with broken legs...

Dominic Cummings enforcing the whip.

devnull

Enzokk wrote: »

What will be interesting is to see how the vote goes this evening, how many rebels will there be and will they have the whip withdrawn?

I can see the rebels abstaining, rather than voting against the bill.

They won't want to lose the whip so they'll go for the coward option of speaking big words against the bill but refusing to outright vote against it.

Seth Brundle

Have a second reading vote:
Yes 340
No 263

devnull

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Have a second reading vote:
Yes 340
No 263

Pretty depressing really if you lived in the UK to see the blatant disregard of law.

Clearly been some abstentions, but this bill is going to get through unless the Lords stop it.

paul71

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Have a second reading vote:
Yes 340
No 263

This house hereby confirms its position as unworthy of the trust of any other nation.

PropJoe10

devnull wrote: »

Pretty depressing really if you lived in the UK to see the blatant disregard of law.

Clearly been some abstentions, but this bill is going to get through unless the Lords stop it.

Boris has a majority of 80 so its unlikely that this bill will be stopped now, even with a rake of abstentions. It's an extremely bad look for the UK. Not sure how they can expect negotiations in good faith with potential trade partners when they're apparently willing to disregard international law.

Shelga

devnull wrote: »

Pretty depressing really if you lived in the UK to see the blatant disregard of law.

Clearly been some abstentions, but this bill is going to get through unless the Lords stop it.

What happens if the queen refuses to sign a bill into law? (I know that would never happen, but humour me!)

ExMachina1000

UK will end up with a free trade agreement and be able to act as a full sovereign country.

Barnier will blink

Leroy42

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Boris has a majority of 80 so its unlikely that this bill will be stopped now, even with a rake of abstentions. It's an extremely bad look for the UK. Not sure how they can expect negotiations in good faith with potential trade partners when they're apparently willing to disregard international law.

Business will still be done, it is just that the other side will want their piece of the pie first before giving anything back tot the UK.

But it will be sold as a win to the UK public, just as the Japan deal was when it carried plenty of State aid issues within it.

PropJoe10

Shelga wrote: »

What happens if the queen refuses to sign a bill into law? (I know that would never happen, but humour me!)

It'll never happen

listermint

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

UK will end up with a free trade agreement and be able to act as a full sovereign country.

Barnier will blink

Your takes are straight out of cloud cuckoo land. It must get boring looking for reaction.

The UK will suffer the worst Brexit possible. And people will be out in the streets

Seth Brundle

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

UK will end up with a free trade agreement and be able to act as a full sovereign country.

Barnier will blink

Why? Because the UK are trying to blackmail the EU? Don't get your hopes up!

Pablo Escobar

Shelga wrote: »

What happens if the queen refuses to sign a bill into law? (I know that would never happen, but humour me!)

She can't. But the Lords will likely stop it. Johnson, then, could force it through in the next Parliamentary session, but that will not be in 2020.

paul71

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

UK will end up with a free trade agreement and be able to act as a full sovereign country.

Barnier will blink

Why would he, even if he were inclined to do so which he clearly is not. He has no reason to have faith in the UK to abide by anything they sign up to after today.

Pablo Escobar

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

UK will end up with a free trade agreement and be able to act as a full sovereign country.

Barnier will blink

Based on the EU not blinking yet? If the UK walk over that cliff, it's a hell of a lot less damage to the EU. The UK has no leverage. At this point the consensus is to let them go. You can't reason with their brand of politics at the moment.

ExMachina1000

listermint wrote: »

Your takes are straight out of cloud cuckoo land. It must get boring looking for reaction.

The UK will suffer the worst Brexit possible. And people will be out in the streets

My opinion is different to yours. Learn to live with it or better yet dont reply.

No need to be insulting.

Podge_irl

Podge_irl wrote: »

I have to say, there are more backbenchers coming out against this than I expected. I suspect most will abstain on second reading rather than vote against and it will still pass to committee, but all is not well for sure.

Never mind

Podge_irl

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

UK will end up with a free trade agreement and be able to act as a full sovereign country.

Barnier will blink

Considering it was the UK that blinked last time and are now desperately trying to walk back on that it seems somewhat unlikely.

ExMachina1000

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Why? Because the UK are trying to blackmail the EU? Don't get your hopes up!

It's a political play. The UK are playing a blinding bluff. If it backfires though the UK will be looking to rejoin after the next election with a labour government at the helm

DangerScouse

listermint wrote: »

Your takes are straight out of cloud cuckoo land. It must get boring looking for reaction.

The UK will suffer the worst Brexit possible. And people will be out in the streets

They'll be fine after a couple of years. They've seen worse than this. We on the other hand will not be.

Our government have handled this absolutely horrendously.

Enzokk

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

UK will end up with a free trade agreement and be able to act as a full sovereign country.

Barnier will blink

Just as soon as the German car makers comes to their senses and demands that the EU give in to the UK demands and give them access to the single market while not asking for any assurances or need to follow those pesky rules.

You just wait, any moment now....any moment.

moon2

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

My opinion is different to yours. Learn to live with it or better yet dont reply.

No need to be insulting.

Being polarising for the sake of being polarising isn't helpful to anyone

listermint

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

My opinion is different to yours. Learn to live with it or better yet dont reply.

No need to be insulting.

Insulting? There is no basis in reality for them hence cloud cuckoo land. The EU has not back tracked on anything for 4 years. The last minute deal mantra is nonsense. The EU is solely about rules. The rules are crazily even written down. Anyone can access them.


Therefore it's not insulting. Its perplexing.

Nate--IRL--

DangerScouse wrote: »

They'll be fine after a couple of years. They've seen worse than this. We on the other hand will not be.

Our government have handled this absolutely horrendously.

We've seen worse than this too. Usually by their hand too.

Nate

Professor Moriarty

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

It's a political play. The UK are playing a blinding bluff. If it backfires though the UK will be looking to rejoin after the next election with a labour government at the helm

You think they will be welcomed back? I don't.