Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

briany

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You'd wonder. Are Johnson & Co betting on a Trump win.

I'm guessing that a trade deal would need to pass through Capitol Hill, so there's more to the equation than Trump.

That is unless Trump could push a deal through via executive order. Although he has sanctioned China in this way, has put a whole trade deal through?

Peregrinus

briany wrote: »

I'm guessing that a trade deal would need to pass through Capitol Hill, so there's more to the equation than Trump.

That is unless Trump could push a deal through via executive order. Although he has sanctioned China in this way, has put a whole trade deal through?

Not possible. The US Constitution requires all treaties to be ratified by the Senate, and US legislation requires treaties dealing with trade to be approved by the House of Representatives as well.

Peregrinus

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Nick with his 24k followers. Nick the sage. Nick the all knowing fountain of knowledge.

On second thoughts who is "Nick" and why should anyone listen to him?

Because what he's saying is obviously correct?

The govenrment has already confected this absurd "EU threat to blockade NI food supplies", and it has been swallowed and dutifully regurgitated by the usual sheeple. You don't need to be psychic, or even particularly intelligent, to predict that the government is going to run a "defame the EU!" line because (a) they're already at it, and (b) it's a Vote Leave government, and this is their default response to everything.

fash

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not possible. The US Constitution requires all treaties to be ratified by the Senate, and US legislation requires treaties dealing with trade to be approved by the House of Representatives as well.

But Trump can (e.g.) drop sanctions on Scottish whisky in return for something else and Johnson would no doubt trumpet that as a "great deal"

Peregrinus

fash wrote: »

But Trump can (e.g.) drop sanctions on Scottish whisky in return for something else and Johnson would no doubt trumpet that as a "great deal"

Mmm. Given what is now happening in relation to the last deal he touted as a "great deal", I think the political advantage he can obtain by touting deals as great deals has been pretty substantially eroded.

murphaph

Even if he touts this or that as a great deal, he won't be able to conceal the economic damage being done. The US won't be rushing into any deal with the UK in any case, Trump or no Trump.

They will let the UK swing in the wind for a while at the very least. The UK would be more likely to come back to a reasonable EU table for further discussions as the chaos will be at EU-UK ports.

Enzokk

Johnson's government, in an attempt to pacify rumblings from the backbenches have now amended the IM Bill to include the Neill amendment as part of the bill,

https://twitter.com/bricksilk/status/1306480713408090113?s=20

What they have done is just confirm that the House of Commons has to vote to break international law. Not that international law is not going to be broken. There is a thread that follows that tweet which explains it, but it is like China changing something in the treaty with the UK about Hong Kong unilaterally but having the People's National Congress vote on it first.

Also, interestingly it doesn't require the House of Lords to confirm this, only for them to be notified. So it cannot be blocked by the House of Lords if it goes through. Well done to those MPs who will think this absolves them from the responsibility of breaking international law. It does nothing of the sort, all it does is put the onus on you personally to go ahead and break the law.If anything this just makes it worse for parliament.

Not that it matters, with a 80-seat majority and threats of expulsion if they vote against anything the government wants this would have gone through with or without this change. There are just too many new MPs who in my view will not stand up for what is right. They were elected on the promise to enact Brexit and they are either too stupid to realise it has been done already or just there for the ride and wouldn't care either way.

murphaph

The red wall was smashed by the Tories deploying their most hopeless cases. These are Brexit party quality MPs. They will do as they are told and there aren't enough old guard Tories left to form a bulwark against this law breaking bill. The UK is finished as an internationally respected power.

moritz1234

UK - "We want control of our own Food/Animal Regulations & Standards, we can then control our imports/exports based on our own regulations"

EU - "No problem with that - Ok, what are those Regulations & Standards? as we need to protect the single market against low food regulations & standards. if we know your regulations & standards that will help us decide"

UK - "you already know our food regulations and standards - stop stalling"

EU - "they are the regulations and standards during the transition period. Can we see your regulations and standards from the 01/01/2021 please?" (especially about USA chlorinated chicken and dodgy beef)

UK - "ahem, well we have got those ready yet, also really don't want them known to the media and general public. But trust us there won't be much change from now, we promise"

EU - "Sorry, that's not the way things work, please advise your Food/Animal regulations & standards from the 01/01/2021"

UK - " ..............." Silence

An Claidheamh

Must say, I find it remarkable that the Taoiseach is nowhere to be seen when Ireland is front and centre at the moment, from the party of deValera.

No statement for the international media?

No press conference condemning Britain?

If this was party politics or a diatribe against SF, the usual suspects would be queuing up to say their piece and run over to the UK media

Proper that FF are so low in the polls, IMO



Also, what I find strange and either Cummingsesque or mere stupidity on the part of the British is that the next NI election and census may return nationalist majority, indeed next Irish GE may return SF in government - yet they are pushing this angle - probably think they can bully us like they do to Scotland

54and56

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Must say, I find it remarkable that the Taoiseach is nowhere to be seen when Ireland is front and centre at the moment, from the party of deValera.

No statement for the international media?

No press conference condemning Britain?

If this was party politics or a diatribe against SF, the usual suspects would be queuing up to say their piece and run over to the UK media

Proper that FF are so low in the polls, IMO



Also, what I find strange and either Cummingsesque or mere stupidity on the part of the British is that the next NI election and census may return nationalist majority, indeed next Irish GE may return SF in government - yet they are pushing this angle - probably think they can bully us like they do to Scotland

Martin already raised concerns at a media briefing, did you miss it?

Other than putting Ireland's concerns on the record, as Martin has, there's no point rising to the bait.

This is an EU matter, let the people charged with progressing it deal with it.

The time for statements which garner US and international support for our plight/position is when there's an actual problem to address. At the moment the Internal Market Bill has no impact on the GFA.

Only if the powers conferred on UK Govt Ministers and subsequently voted through by the HoC can it acted upon. Then there will be an actual problem to shout about.

Leroy42

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Must say, I find it remarkable that the Taoiseach is nowhere to be seen when Ireland is front and centre at the moment, from the party of deValera.

No statement for the international media?

No press conference condemning Britain?

If this was party politics or a diatribe against SF, the usual suspects would be queuing up to say their piece and run over to the UK media

Proper that FF are so low in the polls, IMO



Also, what I find strange and either Cummingsesque or mere stupidity on the part of the British is that the next NI election and census may return nationalist majority, indeed next Irish GE may return SF in government - yet they are pushing this angle - probably think they can bully us like they do to Scotland

What would that achieve though? This is a negotiation between EU (which we are of course part) and the UK. Ireland already secured the WA, which was NO1 priority when the Brexit vote happened.

I am pretty confident, particularly given the reactions from the US last night, that Ireland is very much making its voice heard, just not through the media.

Coverney gave a very good interview on Marr on Sunday, did it make the slightest but if difference to the MP's? No.

They are too far down their made up world, where they are being attacked by an abusive EU, having been forced to sign a terrible WA and now being held hostage to it.

They talkabout a food blockaid, yet the very same people making up this nonsense were happy to deal with having to stockpile and the Blitz Spirit due to queses at the border.

Granadino

Worth a listen, if not posted already. DUP funding Brexit ads in England etc.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2S9mjVZjfR6pypNogub0LZ?si=RtMV33-LQAy1AmVPr1OmLQ

VinLieger

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Must say, I find it remarkable that the Taoiseach is nowhere to be seen when Ireland is front and centre at the moment, from the party of deValera.

No statement for the international media?

No press conference condemning Britain?

If this was party politics or a diatribe against SF, the usual suspects would be queuing up to say their piece and run over to the UK media

Proper that FF are so low in the polls, IMO

Because the EU unlike the UK are incredibly organised and disciplined about this. IF MM makes a statement so will every other head of state along exactly the same lines so it is heard loudly and clearly with no confusion again unlike the UK who are contradicting each other literally every day.

MM coming out and reacting to this on his own is also exactly what the UK are trying to provoke. They want him to say something stupid and unplanned that the EU then have to correct so it weakens the EU position. The smart move is to keep letting themselves digging that hole deeper and deeper.

I agree though all this smart, logical and organised communication and thinking is incredibly unlike FF and "the party of devalera"

Hurrache

The UK has obviously just ripped up the diplomacy rule book, or Trump has some tasty stuff on them on which he's blackmailing them.

https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1306549906719608836

Sam Lowe points out the contrast
https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1306505602357755905

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

The UK has obviously just ripped up the diplomacy rule book, or Trump has some tasty stuff on them on which he's blackmailing them.

https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1306549906719608836

Sam Lowe points out the contrast
https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1306505602357755905

I think it was John Redwood that tweeted today that while a US trade deal, or indeed any trade deal, was nice, it wasn't that important.

So Brexit has tkane the UK out of the EU, soured the relationship, and is now souring the relationship with the US.

All for gains that nobody has been able to put any detail, or even a vague summary, on.

20silkcut

What are the immediate dangers facing this country in just over three months time if things stay on the same course?

Can we handle issues like difficulties with the land bridge to Europe , the collapse of the beef trade to the U.K. and the erection of some sort of a border, and trying to mitigate a pandemic virus all at the same time?
I know it’s difficult to discuss these things in public without getting defensive against naysayers , but is it possible to come out the other side of this?
And how do you see it going? In realpolitik terms

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

They talkabout a food blockaid, yet the very same people making up this nonsense were happy to deal with having to stockpile and the Blitz Spirit due to queses at the border.

More than that: they are using Trump's tactic of accusing the EU of exactly the things they are doing and have done: negotiating in bad faith; threatening to blockade food (and medicine - as threatened by Give) to Ireland.

McGiver

Enzokk wrote:

Also, interestingly it doesn't require the House of Lords to confirm this, only for them to be notified. So it cannot be blocked by the House of Lords if it goes through. Well done to those MPs who will think this absolves them from the responsibility of breaking international law. It does nothing of the sort, all it does is put the onus on you personally to go ahead and break the law.If anything this just makes it worse for parliament.

This is not the worst thing of the amendment. They are also planning to limit scrutiny by the courts if such an executive statutory instrument is called by the HMG and approved by the HoC. This amendment makes it worse.

It's basically moving from authoritarian gov executive instrument to a one-party state legislative instrument. Consent of HoC is irrelevant in the UK system which is time limited one-party system IF there's no checks & balances from the HoL and courts.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think it was John Redwood that tweeted today that while a US trade deal, or indeed any trade deal, was nice, it wasn't that important.

So Brexit has tkane the UK out of the EU, soured the relationship, and is now souring the relationship with the US.

All for gains that nobody has been able to put any detail, or even a vague summary, on.

Is this the same John Redwood?

Sorry, the link is to the Daily Express.

Imreoir2

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the immediate dangers facing this country in just over three months time if things stay on the same course?

Can we handle issues like difficulties with the land bridge to Europe , the collapse of the beef trade to the U.K. and the erection of some sort of a border, and trying to mitigate a pandemic virus all at the same time?
I know it’s difficult to discuss these things in public without getting defensive against naysayers , but is it possible to come out the other side of this?
And how do you see it going? In realpolitik terms

It would be difficult, yes, but I think the UK's difficulties would be vastly worse.

We are not all that exposed to the UK these days, and those few sectors that are exposed have been well known about and the Government have had plenty of time to prepare.

We still have access to our most important markets, investment should hold steady and even be diverted here away from the UK.

If we find ourselves in a no-deal situation, I don't expect it to last too long. The UK is very sensitive to pressure which the EU can apply. The UK has little leverage in that situation.

Medium term, it seems unlikely that the UK will survive this debacle. Preparing for the breakup of the UK should be on our horizon.

DangerScouse

Hard to believe it's come to this but it's looks inevitable now a hard Brexit will happen in a few short weeks.

It's been a monumental failure by the UK, Ireland and the Euro bloc nations to come up with a solution that suits all. Going to be a very rocky few years ahead in which all interested parties will suffer but i feel we will feel it the most due to our exposure and the border.

A clusterfcuk of epic proportions

Leroy42

DangerScouse wrote: »

Hard to believe it's come to this but it's looks inevitable now a hard Brexit will happen in a few short weeks.

It's been a monumental failure by the UK, Ireland and the Euro bloc nations to come up with a solution that suits all. Going to be a very rocky few years ahead in which all interested parties will suffer but i feel we will feel it the most due to our exposure and the border.

A clusterfcuk of epic proportions

It isn't really that hard to believe. Fomr the very outset the UK have not had a clue what they wanted, how they would get and what concessions they would be willing to make. Brexit still is not defined, the Tory party still is arguing with itself. The only thing that would have avoided this scenario is if the UK came to its senses, which tbf to them them have shown little sign of from the outset.

What do you think should have, or could have, been done differently by the EU and/or Ireland?

I mean, obviously the easiest way out of this entire mess is the UK to reverse the decision given that it has proven tobe such a disaster. Failing that, they could extend the transition period.

But since the UK refuse to even contemplate either of these scenarios, what should the EU have done to avoid this state of affairs and what to you think the effects of those actions on EU and Ireland be

fash

DangerScouse wrote: »

It's been a monumental failure by the UK, Ireland and the Euro bloc nations to come up with a solution that suits all.

Aside from invading and carrying out a regime change in the UK, what do you think the EU/Ireland should have done about it?
(Although I must say I'm sympathetic to the regime change solution)

ExMachina1000

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I am afraid we now have "crossed the Rubicon" sort of speak.

By openly violating international law the UK and getting away with it the UK (well unelected elites such Cummings and his puppetmasters in Kremlin who have control of stering wheel) has now crossed a line.

What is to stop them now from:
* Ignoring WTO trading rules
* Dismantling GFA and whole peace process in NI
* Importing questionable goods from US and dumping it into EU market via NI
* Indefinitely putting people of minorities or migrants into detention
* Following Trumps fascist ideas such as sterilising migrants
* Silencing any opposition and/or journalists like happened in Russia

Not only are they rowing back on WA and GFA, one of the aims of Brexit was to drop out of human rights laws.

What is to stop UK going full V for Vendetta style fascists or worse?

This is no longer about Brexit but the beginnings of wholesale dismantlement of UK democracy and replacement with something much more sinister

Wow. All boxes ticked in that one

Leroy42

DangerScouse wrote: »

It's been a monumental failure by the UK, Ireland and the Euro bloc nations to come up with a solution that suits all. Going to be a very rocky few years ahead in which all interested parties will suffer but i feel we will feel it the most due to our exposure and the border.

And on this bit, the EU did come up with a solution to suit all, the WA.

The Cluster is coming from the UK now reneging on that solution.

CrabRevolution

Hurrache wrote: »

The UK has obviously just ripped up the diplomacy rule book, or Trump has some tasty stuff on them on which he's blackmailing them.

https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1306549906719608836

Brexit reminds me of the episode of South Park where they reveal the "true" meaning of Easter. In the episode the head of the American Catholic League is pushing his own ultra pure dogma and accusing others of being unchristian heretics when they don't agree. Eventually his staunch adherence to his own vision leads to him accusing the Pope and Jesus himself of being unchristian.

Brexiters' belief that they are right regarding everything all the time, that the world should be bending over backwards to create their vision, and that compromise on anything is unacceptable has lead to them putting ever more people on their "enemies of brexit" list and leaving them fewer and fewer friends.

ambro25

DangerScouse wrote: »

Hard to believe it's come to this but it's looks inevitable now a hard Brexit will happen in a few short weeks.

It's been a monumental failure by the UK, Ireland and the Euro bloc nations to come up with a solution that suits all. Going to be a very rocky few years ahead in which all interested parties will suffer but i feel we will feel it the most due to our exposure and the border.

A clusterfcuk of epic proportions

It has not been anything, the fat lady is still in her lodge doing her makeup and has yet to get on stage.

But if it is a no deal, indeed it will have ended up as a failure by the UK and the EU27.

But the only "monumentality" of it, lies squarely at the UK's feet. Monumental lies, monumental breaches of voting law and procedures, monumental abuses of constitutional prerogatives and due process, monumental lapses of good political judgement, monumental <etc, etc, etc.>

Not that anyone with two grey cells to rub together, and a modicum of objectivity, expects 'no deal' to last very long, mind you. As Leavers were often reminded, one cannot eat sovereignty.

ath262

The UK imports a significant percentage of it's food, and depends on export of industrial and food products with associated standard and customs declarations etc. Trade both ways will drop off, and Sterling will fall through the floor. How do they think they are going to feed the population and sell their products to if they go rogue ?

Nody

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

What is to stop UK going full V for Vendetta style fascists or worse?

The AI & Supercomputer to run it all.