Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Wow. All boxes ticked in that one

One has to be legitimately concerned where all this is going.

During Brexit, the Judges have been called out, MP's, opposition parties, Tory member have been kicked out of the party, the Lords has been threatened, the HoC was illegally shut down, and now they are attempting to get through a law that would effectively give ministers free reign to ignore both international and domoestic law.

That Dmoestic bit seems to have slipped past the people in the UK, as they are busy cheering Johnson giving one to the EU. But this law is a serious threat to the rule of law, the standing of the HoC and HoL.

It is not too far a step to think that should Brexit continue down this path, with shortages, possible riots etc, that more dracioan measures will be brought in.

Enzokk

murphaph wrote: »

The red wall was smashed by the Tories deploying their most hopeless cases. These are Brexit party quality MPs. They will do as they are told and there aren't enough old guard Tories left to form a bulwark against this law breaking bill. The UK is finished as an internationally respected power.

I don't know if you can paint them all as Brexit Party MPs. I have no doubt they will have their constituents interests at heart, but at the same time they have their jobs in parliament because of Johnson and they have seen what happens to MPs if they defy him. It is easy to do that if you have been an MP for a few years and build up some reputation among your voters, but we have seen how those they expelled fared at the last election. If they get expelled by Johnson they have 0% chance of coming back in the next election. I don't expect any of these new MPs to stand up to Brexit, even if they disagree with what is happening.

It is simple human nature for them to protect their jobs. It doesn't make it right, but it is what it is.

McGiver wrote: »

This is not the worst thing of the amendment. They are also planning to limit scrutiny by the courts if such an executive statutory instrument is called by the HMG and approved by the HoC. This amendment makes it worse.

It's basically moving from authoritarian gov executive instrument to a one-party state legislative instrument. Consent of HoC is irrelevant in the UK system which is time limited one-party system IF there's no checks & balances from the HoL and courts.

But that was in the bill before. This new amendment is just an excuse some MPs will need to fool themselves that they are doing the right thing. They can tell themselves they will never vote to break international law, until the vote comes up and there is a three-line whip and the threat of expulsion is over anyone not voting for it.


It is all a joke and I think most of us are aware of it. Here is Guy Verhofstadt's take on it,

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1306545136697069574?s=20

Nothing has changed with the amendment, the car crash is still going ahead and we are but passengers looking at it, but the airbags has now been removed from the vehicle.

murphaph

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the immediate dangers facing this country in just over three months time if things stay on the same course?

Can we handle issues like difficulties with the land bridge to Europe , the collapse of the beef trade to the U.K. and the erection of some sort of a border, and trying to mitigate a pandemic virus all at the same time?
I know it’s difficult to discuss these things in public without getting defensive against naysayers , but is it possible to come out the other side of this?
And how do you see it going? In realpolitik terms

I think the land bridge is our biggest concern, after Covid.

The border we can stall on. There won't be any infrastructure built overnight. Businesses may be directed to use approved roads with fairly token checks. The border at Dover is the bigger problem in the immediate term.

The UK will still need to eat. The beef trade won't collapse. Supermarkets in GB don't have alternative supply chains which they can rely on to deliver the quantity and quality they currently get from Irish producers. That may change over time but will be a gradual process if it happens at all. Ireland is physically close to GB. Fresh meat prefers shorter shipping times.

reslfj

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

...
The WA had an exit clause, the successful negotiation of a trade treaty,....

No. The WA has no exit clause - apart from a vote in Stormont every 4. year.

Any trade deal will at best eliminate the tariffs (and most incentives to smuggle) but not the GB->EU VAT, not the EU SM standards, rules and regulations, the paperwork e.i. almost none of the NTBs.
(SPS checks are already actively being carried out in Larne)

Lars

joeysoap

Frightening is how I’d describe those videos of Germany pre war. Thousands and thousands of ordinary people cheering Hitler. Ordinary people, men and women. And the world watched. Helpless.
And it could happen again. Only this time closer to home. In fact it’s probably already started . Like a slow burner.

Enzokk

David Allan Green is of the opinion that the great reverse is happening on the IM bill,


https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1306571001879293953?s=20


We will have to wait and see where this ends, but if they do not back off the provisions then we can be sure they want no-FTA deal. If they do reverse from it I suspect a deal will be agreed and much like the WA it will be much to the EU's liking as the UK has been stalling too long to get the complicated provisions in their they could have fought for.

Basically I would not be surprised if we have either no-deal or BRINO. In the case of BRINO it would allow Johnson to blame the EU until the next election for all the ills he and Cummings will wrought on the UK in the next few years.

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

David Allan Green is of the opinion that the great reverse is happening on the IM bill,


https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1306571001879293953?s=20


We will have to wait and see where this ends, but if they do not back off the provisions then we can be sure they want no-FTA deal. If they do reverse from it I suspect a deal will be agreed and much like the WA it will be much to the EU's liking as the UK has been stalling too long to get the complicated provisions in their they could have fought for.

Basically I would not be surprised if we have either no-deal or BRINO. In the case of BRINO it would allow Johnson to blame the EU until the next election for all the ills he and Cummings will wrought on the UK in the next few years.

Do you think this whole episode has just been a test to see how willing the public and party are to accept Johnson blameing a deal he signed for the countries ills? That they are willing to back him now suggests that he can safely sign a trade deal with the EU and later turn his back on it politically and blame it for the countries ills as if he had nothing to do with it.

Similar in a way to Trumpism, no real action on any of the promises, loud saber ratteling is enough to keep the base happy.

briany

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The WA had an exit clause, the successful negotiation of a trade treaty, instead of working towards this they decided to tear up the WA and go back to square one in process destroying what little credibility the UK had left.

And why?

The Northern Irish backstop was supported by NI business leaders (much to Arlene Foster's consternation), and it was also supported by NI political representatives. Put the special arrangements for NI to a referendum of its citizens and I'm quite confident it would pass comfortably.

The only people who appear to be opposed to it are your ERG types and hardcore Unionists. These people in no way represent the popular view of the issue and their opposition is borne of petty politics, not of pragmatism. It's stupid, blinkered and all for very little gain.

ambro25

murphaph wrote: »

(...)

The UK will still need to eat. The beef trade won't collapse. Supermarkets in GB don't have alternative supply chains which they can rely on to deliver the quantity and quality they currently get from Irish producers. That may change over time but will be a gradual process if it happens at all. Ireland is physically close to GB. Fresh meat prefers shorter shipping times.

I'd be interested to hear from 'people in the know' in the UK retail supply chain (esp.food), about the potential for a multiple-whammy borne from the conjunction of:

(i) the logistical disruption everyone has, and continues, to talk about; but also

(ii) UK retailers' cashflow disruption/stressing from (further-) £ falls combined with ultra short-term/upfront payment terms demanded by EU27 suppliers for mitigating bad debt risk.

Just a theory, as I haven't found any hard intel/testimonies on the topic yet. But it's a factual and logical business consideration, worthy of interest as the WA deadline nears and payment due dates (for new UK orders on EU27 suppliers to be fulfilled in 2021) must be accruing well into 2021 by now.

Gerry T

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

What is to stop UK going full V for Vendetta style fascists or worse?

This is no longer about Brexit but the beginnings of wholesale dismantlement of UK democracy and replacement with something much more sinister

The UK people won't stand for it, their not yet feeling the pinch from brexit but in Jan with a hard brexit there will be price rises from importing food, there will be job losses as the car industry can't survive nor any other JIT business.

Look when a time comes that Milliband can hand Johnson a new A-hole and all Johnson can do is slump in his seat with his arms folded and a scowl on his face, it's becoming apparent that Johnson's days are numbered.

The UK will try throwing its weight around, but will get slapped back by the EU, USA, China etc and with time and a chance for it all to sink in the UK will realise it's new position in the world ranking.

Enzokk

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Do you think this whole episode has just been a test to see how willing the public and party are to accept Johnson blameing a deal he signed for the countries ills? That they are willing to back him now suggests that he can safely sign a trade deal with the EU and later turn his back on it politically and blame it for the countries ills as if he had nothing to do with it.

Similar in a way to Trumpism, no real action on any of the promises, loud saber ratteling is enough to keep the base happy.

That could be, but I don't think it is that complicated. I think they wanted to go this route and still expected to get a FTA with the US. One the US turned their back on them, they are now backtracking. There is no long term plan to look at the reaction as they haven't thought that far ahead. None of what this government has done so far has shown them to be that forward thinking.

54and56

murphaph wrote: »

I think the land bridge is our biggest concern, after Covid.

It's certainly a convenient and cheaper way to route imports and exports to (and through) the EU but like a lot of taken for granted ways of doing things which have been challenged by and permanently changed by the imposed Covid Pandemic, a No Deal Brexit forced on us by the right wing Engerlanders currently running the UK, adjustments (many painful) will be made and once made will possibly stay made.

The economy will adjust to no or little access via landbridge and even if the UK does come to it's senses why would people trust it again and why would they move back to old arrangements and give up the new trusted arrangements they'd established post Brexit?

murphaph wrote: »

The border we can stall on. There won't be any infrastructure built overnight. Businesses may be directed to use approved roads with fairly token checks.

The EU is a tightly knit club. If there's a gaping hole in one part of it's border it's of concern to all. We will be given lot's of latitude to implement the required border controls (assuming the UK doesn't adhere to the WA) and assistance with resources if needed.

murphaph wrote: »

The UK will still need to eat. The beef trade won't collapse. Supermarkets in GB don't have alternative supply chains which they can rely on to deliver the quantity and quality they currently get from Irish producers. That may change over time but will be a gradual process if it happens at all. Ireland is physically close to GB. Fresh meat prefers shorter shipping times.

No so if you think it through, the UK's plan to not apply the WA leave a great big hole in their border also. It won't take long for a grey market in RoI beef to spring up which see's it driving uninterrupted into NI and over to GB.

20silkcut

54and56 wrote: »

It's certainly a convenient and cheaper way to route imports and exports to (and through) the EU but like a lot of taken for granted ways of doing things which have been challenged by and permanently changed by the imposed Covid Pandemic, a No Deal Brexit forced on us by the right wing Engerlanders currently running the UK, adjustments (many painful) will be made and once made will possibly stay made.

The economy will adjust to no or little access via landbridge and even if the UK does come to it's senses why would people trust it again and why would they move back to old arrangements and give up the new trusted arrangements they'd established post Brexit?



The EU is a tightly knit club. If there's a gaping hole in one part of it's border it's of concern to all. We will be given lot's of latitude to implement the required border controls (assuming the UK doesn't adhere to the WA) and assistance with resources if needed.



No so if you think it through, the UK's plan to not apply the WA leave a great big hole in their border also. It won't take long for a grey market in RoI beef to spring up which see's it driving uninterrupted into NI and over to GB.

Can we export beef to a country we don’t have a trade deal with?

Leroy42

Gerry T wrote: »

The UK people won't stand for it, their not yet feeling the pinch from brexit but in Jan with a hard brexit there will be price rises from importing food, there will be job losses as the car industry can't survive nor any other JIT business.

But only if they blame the government. The last GE would suggest that people are very much taken in by the whole "EU are bullying us' rhetoric. Even look at the response to Biden yesterday. Plenty (like IDS) coming out to tell Biden to mind his own business. Thaat is not by accident.

They are already setting up Biden as the fall guy should a trade deal not happen, or Pelosi if Biden wins).

Has as been the case the last 4 years, anyone that tries to blame the government is called a traitor or not believing in Britain enough.

Sam Russell

54and56 wrote: »

No so if you think it through, the UK's plan to not apply the WA leave a great big hole in their border also. It won't take long for a grey market in RoI beef to spring up which see's it driving uninterrupted into NI and over to GB.

I think you are right.

We all remember when Daisy the cow would wander across the border into NI and suddenly become Gertrude the cow, during the bad old days of circumventing various EU regulations and strictures. That is how Irish beef can become NI beef.

Perhaps the packing of Irish cheddar in NI will make Irish cheese into NI cheese.

Of course the truck carrying the product from NI to GB could make the odd stop on the route to Dublin.

Look, if they have not been able to stop the illegal and wholesale washing of diesel on the border, there is not much hope of stopping wholesale smuggling.

An Ciarraioch

British government statement is the beginning of a climbdown on the IM Bill, firstly accepting the principle of GB-NI tariffs "related to the real risk of goods entering the EU single market", and intriguingly only rejecting EU state aid rules for GB where there is "no link or only a trivial one" to NI. However, they still refuse to be bound by the principles of the Joint Committee, and remain in a huff on 3rd-party listings, so still some ground to travel yet:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/government-statement-on-notwithstanding-clauses/government-statement-on-notwithstanding-clauses

BlitzKrieg

It's been fun watching the express and the more aggressive brexit supporters to try and show that the EU broke international law before the UK did. Quite a few of them have suddenly come across a 3 month old statement from the council of europe calling out it's member states for breaking human rights laws over the med migration crisis.

Course it's a fun day on twitter when you get to explain that the council of europe and the EU is not the same and also watch people who have tweets calling for shooting asylum seekers in the english channel to suddenly care about them in the Mediterranean

Chips Lovell

Mod Note

The thread has gone a little OTT in recent pages, generating a few reported posts. We've got some people making some fairly far fetched suggestions and some responding with sarcastic replies. Let's tone it down and return to the realm of the possible/plausible.

As the charter states:

High standards of debate and quality posts / threads are required. Repeated one liner, low quality style posts will result in a ban. Threads (and posts) that are not based on serious and legitimate Political discussion will be deleted without warning.

ExMachina1000

20silkcut wrote: »

Can we export beef to a country we don’t have a trade deal with?

Tariffs will spoil the appetite for Irish beef. Billion euro a year industry

listermint

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Tariffs will spoil the appetite for Irish beef. Billion euro a year industry

You are saying that like its smug and we cannot find other markets elsewhere?

ath262

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Tariffs will spoil the appetite for Irish beef. Billion euro a year industry

according to WTO rules the same Tariffs would have to apply to any imports from countries without FTAs

BonnieSituation

A nice summation from Femi about the sheer pointlessness of it all, especially under the guise of sovereignty:

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1306258503355568129

The US intervention seem to have just emboldened the arch-Brexiteers. It's at once hilarious, frightening and downright amazing tbh.

ExMachina1000

listermint wrote: »

You are saying that like its smug and we cannot find other markets elsewhere?

Irish beef is already expensive . Add on increased transport and storage costs to reach these new markets. They might not bite

ExMachina1000

ath262 wrote: »

according to WTO rules the same Tariffs would have to apply to any imports from countries without FTAs

I'm referring to Irish beef exports.

reslfj

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Irish beef is already expensive . Add on increased transport and storage costs to reach these new markets. They might not bite

Will the Brits chose the Veg. path or go full Vegan ?

The UK imports about half its food consumption. Stomachs will go awfully empty in a very short while, I'm afraid.

You can find quality Irish beef at supermarket shelves in very many EU countries. The RoRo / LoLo shipping routes has plenty of capacity between Ireland and Continental Europe already with more to come.

Lars

PS! The WA guarantees a SM open land border. NI shops and supermarkets can easily be supplied from the RoI.

ExMachina1000

reslfj wrote: »

Will the Brits chose the Veg. path or go full Vegan ?

The UK imports about half its food consumption. Stomachs will go awfully empty in a very short while, I'm afraid.

You can find quality Irish beef at supermarket shelves in very many EU countries. The RoRo / LoLo shipping routes has plenty of capacity between Ireland and Continental Europe already with more to come.

Lars

PS! The WA guarantees a SM open land border. NI shops and supermarkets can easily be supplied from the RoI.

The British might get their beef elsewhere tariff free. They can set their own trade deals.

Saying that Irish beef is available in Europe doesn't mean that we can just send over a billion euro worth. It's not a few burgers we are talking about. Where will we send it exactly?
Very simplistic

Quin_Dub

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Irish beef is already expensive . Add on increased transport and storage costs to reach these new markets. They might not bite

And where exactly will the replacement beef come from??

Are they all going to eat Quorn?

Probably not as they have to import that too.

As has been repeatedly pointed out - The UK cannot feed itself - All the food in the world is already "accounted for" for the want of a better term.

If the UK want to eat after they exit without any deals , then they are going to have to accept higher prices for their food.

WTO rules means that the low tariff is the only tariff , so if they are importing from another non EU country, they will have to charge them exactly the same as they would charge Ireland.

This is a Lose-Lose for the UK , it's as simple as that.

Gerry T

Leroy42 wrote: »

But only if they blame the government. The last GE would suggest that people are very much taken in by the whole "EU are bullying us' rhetoric. Even look at the response to Biden yesterday. Plenty (like IDS) coming out to tell Biden to mind his own business. Thaat is not by accident.

They are already setting up Biden as the fall guy should a trade deal not happen, or Pelosi if Biden wins).

Has as been the case the last 4 years, anyone that tries to blame the government is called a traitor or not believing in Britain enough.

It doesn't really matter domestically who they blame. I think the penny will drop at some point, people will start saying, "hang on we're not in the EU, stop blaming them and fix our problems". At the moment Brexit hasn't hit many people. Some isolated job losses but nothing compared to Jan when practically everyone feels the pinch. A change in foods on shelves as cheaper alternatives are found, as WTO tariffs hit ALL imports, so most like cheaper foods that cost more, if that makes sense. Then mass Job losses, business won't pump more money after bad. Production will be kept for the UK market so there will be hugh cuts.
What the UK lacks is some politicians with a backbone, we could lend them a bunch of ours to try sort out the mess.

ancapailldorcha

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

The British might get their beef elsewhere tariff free. They can set their own trade deals.

Saying that Irish beef is available in Europe doesn't mean that we can just send over a billion euro worth. It's not a few burgers we are talking about. Where will we send it exactly?
Very simplistic

How will getting their beef tariff-free affect their farmers?

20silkcut

Quin_Dub wrote: »

And where exactly will the replacement beef come from??

Are they all going to eat Quorn?

Probably not as they have to import that too.

As has been repeatedly pointed out - The UK cannot feed itself - All the food in the world is already "accounted for" for the want of a better term.

If the UK want to eat after they exit without any deals , then they are going to have to accept higher prices for their food.

WTO rules means that the low tariff is the only tariff , so if they are importing from another non EU country, they will have to charge them exactly the same as they would charge Ireland.

This is a Lose-Lose for the UK , it's as simple as that.

Could they not do a deal with Mercosur trade bloc and import Brazilian and Argentina beef at world price tariff free?