Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

20silkcut

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

How will getting their beef tariff-free affect their farmers?

Their own farmers can’t produce enough beef to feed them at the moment

ancapailldorcha

20silkcut wrote: »

Their own farmers can’t produce enough beef to feed them at the moment

Right but importing huge quantities of cheap Latin American beef won't be doing them any good.

ath262

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I'm referring to Irish beef exports.

to where ?

we dont pay tariffs for exports

the problem is for the UK, or any other country without an FTA with the EU, they have to apply tariffs on imports of beef and many other products originating from anywhere without an FTA - all raising the cost for their consumers.

VinLieger

20silkcut wrote: »

Could they not do a deal with Mercosur trade bloc and import Brazilian and Argentina beef at world price tariff free?

They could do a quick deal if needed but what will they have to give in return because Mercosur will know they have them over a barrel

Gerry T

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

The British might get their beef elsewhere tariff free. They can set their own trade deals.

Saying that Irish beef is available in Europe doesn't mean that we can just send over a billion euro worth. It's not a few burgers we are talking about. Where will we send it exactly?
Very simplistic

The UK ships about 156,000 tons of Beef into the EU each year. IRL ships 211,000 tons to the UK. There's a market there for 74% of Irish beef, that's very simplistic, but with EU trade deals opening with some very large markets, the premium quality beef production in IRL has the potential to expand, not shrink.
It's a difficult time for Beef producers but it's not a doom and gloom situation.

The UK can't set their own trade deals, that the exceptionalism attitude that keeps back firing on the UK. In markets that the UK would like to do deals it will be told how it will be, just look at Japan hitting the UK hard with state Aid provisions.
As you say, it's not simple.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

That could be, but I don't think it is that complicated. I think they wanted to go this route and still expected to get a FTA with the US. One the US turned their back on them, they are now backtracking. There is no long term plan to look at the reaction as they haven't thought that far ahead. None of what this government has done so far has shown them to be that forward thinking.

Check out this take from The Economist. It pretty much confirms what you are saying :

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1306522834110500864

In other words, they took a massive gamble on the roulette wheel but now it has gone horribly wrong.

LeinsterDub

Strazdas wrote: »

Check out this take from The Economist. It pretty much confirms what you are saying :

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1306522834110500864

In other words, they took a massive gamble on the roulette wheel but now it has gone horribly wrong.

Where they not paying attention when the people who actually approve trade deals the the House/Senate were saying no?

murphaph

The British government will be in an awful bind come January. Set food tariffs as they are now to protect British farming or drop tariffs to keep prices from exploding as EU sourced food suddenly becomes significantly more expensive.

There are far fewer farmers than voters, so I'd guess British farming will be sacrificed on the altar of Brexit.

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

Check out this take from The Economist. It pretty much confirms what you are saying :

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1306522834110500864

In other words, they took a massive gamble on the roulette wheel but now it has gone horribly wrong.

A guest on Eamon Dunphy's The Stand last week focused on the importance of Trump winning in November to the execution of the Brexit plan. He outlined the parallels between Trump disruptive politics and the views of Dominic Cummings.

Biden's comments rubber stamped that.

ath262

just on the tariff free beef idea (as an example) the UK, or any other WTO member, cannot apply a lower tariff for a product from an individual country without an FTA and apply a higher tariff to another country without an FTA e.g. currently any country in the EU - see MFN (Most Favoured Nation) rules

Infini

Strazdas wrote: »

Check out this take from The Economist. It pretty much confirms what you are saying :

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1306522834110500864

In other words, they took a massive gamble on the roulette wheel but now it has gone horribly wrong.

They thought they could get a better deal with America.
They decided they were going to do it and ride roughshod over Ireland and the border.
They thought they could just bully us like the did in the past into getting their own way.
They forgot we're quite well connected in Europe as were a steadfast member of the EU.
They ALSO forgot that we're very well connected in America with BOTH parties.

How the turntables....

Chips Lovell

The UK currently has to import 35% of its beef, most of which comes from Ireland. Post Jan 1, several things could happen:

1. Beef gets more expensive because of tarrifs on beef from Ireland.
2. UK producers increase domestic beef production
3. UK imports more beef from lower lost locations
4. UK beef consumption decreases

The most likely outcome is some combination of all of the above.

To complicate things further, a lot of British beef is exported to the EU because they don't have the processing capacity themselves after BSE. So carcasses go out (mainly to Ireland and the Netherlands) and butchered meat comes back.

20silkcut

Gerry T wrote: »

The UK ships about 156,000 tons of Beef into the EU each year. IRL ships 211,000 tons to the UK. There's a market there for 74% of Irish beef, that's very simplistic, but with EU trade deals opening with some very large markets, the premium quality beef production in IRL has the potential to expand, not shrink.
It's a difficult time for Beef producers but it's not a doom and gloom situation.

The UK can't set their own trade deals, that the exceptionalism attitude that keeps back firing on the UK. In markets that the UK would like to do deals it will be told how it will be, just look at Japan hitting the UK hard with state Aid provisions.
As you say, it's not simple.

They seem to be willing to accept harsh terms from any trading bloc that is not the EU. And selling it back home as a win.
The arguments are spurious this is just about getting away from the EU at any cost.
No talking to them when they are like that.
To take it down to a more simple level of human nature I can think of many instances where people put themselves in a worse position just to prove a point. Just to give two fingers to those they don’t like.
People get divorced every day leaving themselves worse off.

An Ciarraioch

20silkcut wrote: »

Could they not do a deal with Mercosur trade bloc and import Brazilian and Argentina beef at world price tariff free?

Basically, both restaurants and supermarket chains pay a premium for Irish beef, because it's organically reared, grass-fed and has a taste and texture that British customers favour. Of course, the UK would be perfectly free to seek a replacement supplier, but getting the public to buy it is another matter.

ancapailldorcha

murphaph wrote: »

The British government will be in an awful bind come January. Set food tariffs as they are now to protect British farming or drop tariffs to keep prices from exploding as EU sourced food suddenly becomes significantly more expensive.

There are far fewer farmers than voters, so I'd guess British farming will be sacrificed on the altar of Brexit.

The chap I know in the civil service reckons that the country is well prepared to ensure that food security is not disrupted.

The problem here is that it means that fishermen, farmers and others involved in the industry will be shafted and shafted hard. You can import food tariff-free from the EU but if you're doing that then the need for a trade deal becomes less pressing as the EU effectively have tariff-free access to the British market for food without lifting a finger.

Then there are the Conservative voters in the countryside. They're the ones most in need of subsidies and they've voted for Brexit numerous times at this stage. If their standards of living collapses then the party is in dire straits.

ath262

Chips Lovell wrote: »

The UK currently has to import 35% of its beef, most of which comes from Ireland. Post Jan 1, several things could happen:

1. Beef gets more expensive because of tarrifs on beef from Ireland.
2. UK producers increase domestic beef production
3. UK imports more beef from lower lost locations
4. UK beef consumption decreases

The most likely outcome is some combination of all of the above.
....

and/or they apply low tariffs to beef imports... including from the EU

very time consuming to apply number 2, could require years to build up the herd

The Raging Bile Duct

How did they think a FTA with the US was going to cover the losses they'll suffer from leaving the Single Market and Customs Union?

ancapailldorcha

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

How did they think a FTA with the US was going to cover the losses they'll suffer from leaving the Single Market and Customs Union?

I think we're at the point where the flimsy pretence that the UK was going to become a global trade superpower has weakened too much to be convincing to anyone. It was trotted out as a way for Brexiters to counter the economic arguments against Brexit.

Tell me how

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

How did they think a FTA with the US was going to cover the losses they'll suffer from leaving the Single Market and Customs Union?

I think they actually believed that the German Car Makers and French Wine Producers would step in and ensure that they had continued access to the SM.

Their two finger attitude to the EU and their own bluster in demanding that they get what they want has meant that they have never been able to admit that they would actually have never wanted Brexit if they knew they would be outside of Europe.

listermint

20silkcut wrote: »

They seem to be willing to accept harsh terms from any trading bloc that is not the EU. And selling it back home as a win.
The arguments are spurious this is just about getting away from the EU at any cost.
No talking to them when they are like that.
To take it down to a more simple level of human nature I can think of many instances where people put themselves in a worse position just to prove a point. Just to give two fingers to those they don’t like.
People get divorced every day leaving themselves worse off.

They are trying as hard to get away from the EU because as a bloc they are very hard to divide up and get sneaky side deals from because it's very much about consensus. The billionaires funding this whole charade and the disaster capitalism which will follow can't buy wholesale politicians across the EU like they can in little England.

Which is why the EU is being painted like this..not because of the common man. Because of the individual man sitting on millions.

ExMachina1000

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Basically, both restaurants and supermarket chains pay a premium for Irish beef, because it's organically reared, grass-fed and has a taste and texture that British customers favour. Of course, the UK would be perfectly free to seek a replacement supplier, but getting the public to buy it is another matter.

South American beef cant be so bad if the EU were willing to include it in the mercosur deal?
UK shoppers may end up with cheaper beef from South America rather than expensive Irish.

I think I read that there are 50 billion animals slaughtered globally every year so there are no shortage of places for the UK to buy from.

20silkcut

listermint wrote: »

They are trying as hard to get away from the EU because as a bloc they are very hard to divide up and get sneaky side deals from because it's very much about consensus. The billionaires funding this whole charade and the disaster capitalism which will follow can't buy wholesale politicians across the EU like they can in little England.

Which is why the EU is being painted like this..not because of the common man. Because of the individual man sitting on millions.

That’s true but they have brought a huge swathe of middle class England along with them.
They have comprehensively won the brexit argument to such an extent that remainers are now almost afraid to even identify as that.

I follow a lot of different UK based you tubers in farming circles all under 50 very Interesting intelligent and very entertaining . I know they are remainers by their opinions body language outlook on life etc. They don’t mention brexit. Not one iota.
They don’t touch it.
Even though their business is potentially months away from ruin. Not a mention.

listermint

20silkcut wrote: »

That’s true but they have brought a huge swathe of middle class England along with them.
They have comprehensively won the brexit argument to such an extent that remainers are now almost afraid to even identify as that.

I follow a lot of different UK based you tubers in farming circles all under 50 very Interesting intelligent and very entertaining . I know they are remainers by their opinions body language outlook on life etc. They don’t mention brexit. Not one iota.
They don’t touch it.
Even though their business is potentially months away from ruin. Not a mention.

That will be because the vast bulk of the media is owned by the same individuals who set the agenda. Traitors narrative. Judges , civil servants, labour, back benchers, soft Tories. And so on etc etc

Mercosur walks into negotiations and demands greater access to UK for its farmers. The UK politely requests the same.

20silkcut

listermint wrote: »

That will be because the vast bulk of the media is owned by the same individuals who set the agenda. Traitors narrative. Judges , civil servants, labour, back benchers, soft Tories. And so on etc etc

That level of partisanship is similar to a certain Central European country, beginning with G of which I won’t mention, 80 years ago.

fash

20silkcut wrote: »

Could they not do a deal with Mercosur trade bloc and import Brazilian and Argentina beef at world price tariff free?

Only if the UK hands back Falklands to Argentina:
link

swampgas

listermint wrote: »

They are trying as hard to get away from the EU because as a bloc they are very hard to divide up and get sneaky side deals from because it's very much about consensus. The billionaires funding this whole charade and the disaster capitalism which will follow can't buy wholesale politicians across the EU like they can in little England.

Which is why the EU is being painted like this..not because of the common man. Because of the individual man sitting on millions.

I think Murdoch and the other billionaire newpaper owners are part of this, Murdoch in particular.

On being asked why he was so opposed to the European Union: 'That’s easy,' he replied. 'When I go into Downing Street they do what I say; when I go to Brussels they take no notice."

listermint

Pelosi made statement today that she told Dominic Raab 'my phone blew up when you guys announced the changes to the WA and targeting the GFA'

Seems like there's still alot of clout over there no matter how diminished it seems at times.

johnnyskeleton

murphaph wrote: »

The British government will be in an awful bind come January. Set food tariffs as they are now to protect British farming or drop tariffs to keep prices from exploding as EU sourced food suddenly becomes significantly more expensive.

There are far fewer farmers than voters, so I'd guess British farming will be sacrificed on the altar of Brexit.

Farm subsidies could prove a further point of divergence between England on the one hand, and Scotland and Wales on the other. The English are proposing to partially replicate EU farm subsidies, but only to the tune of 75% of what the EU was giving:

https://www.ft.com/content/81009ae6-b825-49e4-8b95-c68cdf2a69b6

As I understand it, Irish and I assume UK farmers basically could not survive without the subsidies, as the market price for most non-artesinal food stuffs is barely break even or sometimes is even loss making.

Wales and Scotland have devloved powers for Agriculture, as far as I know, but it could pose a budget squeeze for them. And as regards England, it's not just the farmers but their famillies and communities. Brexit and the Tory party's base is rural England, so while they may make up only a small part of the UK population, it is a politically significant population.

So yeah, difficult times no matter how one looks at it.

Gerry T

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

South American beef cant be so bad if the EU were willing to include it in the mercosur deal?
UK shoppers may end up with cheaper beef from South America rather than expensive Irish.

Irish meat is premium, but historically the UK has paid a low price. The UK won't get that quality for the price their currently paying.

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I think I read that there are 50 billion animals slaughtered globally every year so there are no shortage of places for the UK to buy from.

How come 11% of the world's population is classed as hungry every day. That statement makes no sense, if that amount of animals are consumed then their not available for the UK to purchase, unless you want to pay more to the producer and also more for the transport cost, as that meat won't be coming from the EU or USA by your reckoning.


What your leaving out is the cost of Meat, it's not just the price per Kg, in a WTO world there is distance, meat is heavy and cost's a lot to ship as it has to be refrigerated. Outside a FTA there are a lot of other costs like vet inspections at source, duty declarations and customs clearance. Delays. JIT delivery as it's far less reliable you would need to stock. But even if that was overcome the UK has to balance its purchasing power over protecting its food production sector, you can't allow cheap crap to come in and undercut local producers, if you do there won't be any local food producers left. Then those cheap imports won't be cheap for very long. Once you loose your local production it's very very hard to get it back.
The question is, why for hundreds of yrs has the UK never been self sufficient in food production. Why when the empire was shrinking haven't they changed that and increased their food production, their so reliant on others to just feed themselves its tactically a very weak position to be in. A position they will discover others will exploit.

If