Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

54and56

20silkcut wrote: »

Can we export beef to a country we don’t have a trade deal with?

Yes, in two ways.

Legally - WTO terms = tariffs and custom hassle/delays etc and a much more expensive product for the UK consumer.

Illegally - Sean (or even Billy) with a NI reg refrigerated truck drives across the no infrastructure border into RoI, buys a load of beef from any number of factories or wholesalers, loads it onto his truck, drives back over the no infrastructure border into NI and then proceeds to drive intra UK "unfettered" to use BoJo's preferred expression via the Larne ferry to whatever mainland city he wants selling the truck load of beef on to local wholesalers who can supply the local catering trade or do so directly himself to the back doors of restaurants and takeaways etc.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/SenatorMenendez/status/1306637344540430336

Another American voice laying things out very clearly.

johnnyskeleton

20silkcut wrote: »

I follow a lot of different UK based you tubers in farming circles all under 50 very Interesting intelligent and very entertaining . I know they are remainers by their opinions body language outlook on life etc. They don’t mention brexit. Not one iota.
They don’t touch it.
Even though their business is potentially months away from ruin. Not a mention.

My aunt who lives in rural England said the same thing. She came over to Ireland to visit and was amazed at how freely we discussed the various twists and turns of the saga. I guess they don't mention it on their you tube channels because they don't really talk about it with their friends and neighbours as it's too divisive. So they are going to basically sleepwalk into a no deal Brexit but, as long as the pro-Brexit people are irrationally enraged by any suggestion of a less than perfect Brexit, they dare not speak out.

And if you feel that you can't speak about an issue, you tend to lose interest in watching news items about it. So it wouldn't surprise me that they have simply made a conscious decision to just not think about it and hope for the best.

Tell me how

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

My aunt who lives in rural England said the same thing. She came over to Ireland to visit and was amazed at how freely we discussed the various twists and turns of the saga. I guess they don't mention it on their you tube channels because they don't really talk about it with their friends and neighbours as it's too divisive. So they are going to basically sleepwalk into a no deal Brexit but, as long as the pro-Brexit people are irrationally enraged by any suggestion of a less than perfect Brexit, they dare not speak out.

And if you feel that you can't speak about an issue, you tend to lose interest in watching news items about it. So it wouldn't surprise me that they have simply made a conscious decision to just not think about it and hope for the best.

My brother is a vet over there and his clients dont talk about it either at this point.

The narrative went;
The EU are bad for us.
Cant believe it's taking so long to just leave.
Not talking about it.

They're in a safe conservative constituency so there would have been a strong leaning towards accepting the Tory narrative.

Strazdas

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

My aunt who lives in rural England said the same thing. She came over to Ireland to visit and was amazed at how freely we discussed the various twists and turns of the saga. I guess they don't mention it on their you tube channels because they don't really talk about it with their friends and neighbours as it's too divisive. So they are going to basically sleepwalk into a no deal Brexit but, as long as the pro-Brexit people are irrationally enraged by any suggestion of a less than perfect Brexit, they dare not speak out.

And if you feel that you can't speak about an issue, you tend to lose interest in watching news items about it. So it wouldn't surprise me that they have simply made a conscious decision to just not think about it and hope for the best.

A lot of anti-Brexit opinion has been shut down by the fact that Johnson won an 80 seat majority on the back of a "Get Brexit done" slogan.

It's interesting to watch. The Brexiteers / English nationalists are probably well under 50% of the population and yet are totally controlling the public narrative.

Spleodar

Well, their strategy was to kill any opposition with name calling, abuse, anger and it appears to have succeeded.

If you look at say big businesses who will be effected badly by this, very few of them said anything. Some of them may just quietly move some of their operations out of harm's way, but they did not want the tabloid newspaper backlash, particularly not if they had consumer brands.

Call me Al

listermint wrote: »

Pelosi made statement today that she told Dominic Raab 'my phone blew up when you guys announced the changes to the WA and targeting the GFA'

Seems like there's still alot of clout over there no matter how diminished it seems at times.

It's ironic. The size if the Irish American lobby and vote is largely as a result of centuries of British policies, leading to mass emigration from Ireland to the US.
It appears to have come back to bite them.

Strazdas

Spleodar wrote: »

Well, their strategy was to kill any opposition with name calling, abuse, anger and it appears to have succeeded.

If you look at say big businesses who will be effected badly by this, very few of them said anything. Some of them may just quietly move some of their operations out of harm's way, but they did not want the tabloid newspaper backlash, particularly not if they had consumer brands.

I've read reports about this many times, companies quietly moving business out of the country but saying nothing publicly for fear of a backlash from the usual suspects.

johnnyskeleton

Strazdas wrote: »

A lot of anti-Brexit opinion has been shut down by the fact that Johnson won an 80 seat majority on the back of a "Get Brexit done" slogan.

Yes pretty much. Though to be fair when the options, on the most important issue facing a country are:

1) get it done;
2) I dunno, maybe lets think about it a bit more, and consider our options, and maybe achive the impossible, and then we can decide maybe if we could perhaps begin to form a view on it;
3) it's a terrible idea, but if you vote for us you will only split the vote.

In those cirucmstances, I don't necessarily interpret the winning of an 80 seat majority is a clear mandate for Johnson's form of Brexit. However, I accept that the people of the UK seem to have accepted that it is, and I suppose they're the ones that matter.

Capt'n Midnight

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

South American beef cant be so bad if the EU were willing to include it in the mercosur deal?
UK shoppers may end up with cheaper beef from South America rather than expensive Irish.

I think I read that there are 50 billion animals slaughtered globally every year so there are no shortage of places for the UK to buy from.

50 billion of them are chickens. only 0.3 Billion are cattle.


Here's two facts. One is more bankable than the other.

Tories promised UK farmers £3Bn

62% of income received by farmers in Northern Ireland comes from the European Union.

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

Check out this take from The Economist. It pretty much confirms what you are saying :

twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1306522834110500864

In other words, they took a massive gamble on the roulette wheel but now it has gone horribly wrong.

It wasn't a gamble. They knew the risk vs reward. It's like accepting evens when betting on green.

No deal Brexit would be a 9.3% hit. Whereas The government has estimated a post-Brexit trade deal with the United States would boost the UK economy by 0.16% over the next 15 years.

A growth rate of 0.01% per annum is way below population growth.

And it could be half that at just 0.07% over 15 years and that's the government figures so probably some pressure to make it look good and a "US deal would lead to a long-term 0.5% reduction in the output of the financial services sector, with resources "reallocated" to other areas."

Strazdas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It wasn't a gamble. They knew the risk vs reward. It's like accepting evens when betting on green.

No deal Brexit would be a 9.3% hit. Whereas The government has estimated a post-Brexit trade deal with the United States would boost the UK economy by 0.16% over the next 15 years.

A growth rate of 0.01% per annum is way below population growth.

And it could be half that at just 0.07% over 15 years and that's the government figures so probably some pressure to make it look good and a "US deal would lead to a long-term 0.5% reduction in the output of the financial services sector, with resources "reallocated" to other areas."

But in that case, it was still a huge miscalculation : they didn't understand that the Irish border issue would have to be settled before a US trade deal could go through. They thought they could trash the UK's relationship with the EU and Single Market without consequences.

reslfj

Gerry T wrote: »

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

...
I think I read that there are 50 billion animals slaughtered globally every year

...That statement makes no sense, if that amount of animals are consumed ....

The figure (actually a little larger) includes chickens and is world wide. Cattle is a mere fraction - 302 million /2018 if these pages are correct.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/animals-slaughtered-for-meat
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/animals-slaughtered-for-meat?tab=table&time=2018
Sort table on e.g cattle

54and56 wrote: »

...
Illegally - Sean (or even Billy) with a NI reg refrigerated truck drives across the no infrastructure border into RoI, buys a load of beef from any number of factories or wholesalers, loads it onto his truck, drives back over the no infrastructure border into NI ....

At least large animals like cows are chip marked in many member states and will surely be chip marked in Ireland too, if they are not already?

The Irish and the EU representatives are not born yesterday.

Lars

Moderator: Can't we ask people like ExMachina1000 to make basic fact checking, before posting ?

paul71

briany wrote: »

I'm guessing that a trade deal would need to pass through Capitol Hill, so there's more to the equation than Trump.

That is unless Trump could push a deal through via executive order. Although he has sanctioned China in this way, has put a whole trade deal through?

I honestly don't think even Trump is stupid enough to to get stuck into this one.

reslfj

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

...
Here's two facts.....[/URL]

You beat me to the answers - well done.

Lars

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

But in that case, it was still a huge miscalculation

Chasing rainbows.

The only way they could possibly get to that 0.16% in 15 years time is with a good deal with Trump's "America First" US of A AND at the same time not shooting themselves in the foot with both barrels by loosing the existing EU deal AND not keeping EU terms on deals with other countries.

I can't see them keeping 0.16% (or 0.07%) ahead over the next 15 years. Especially since the UK won't have the same clout as the entire EU with most other countries.

View

Strazdas wrote: »

But in that case, it was still a huge miscalculation : they didn't understand that the Irish border issue would have to be settled before a US trade deal could go through. They thought they could trash the UK's relationship with the EU and Single Market without consequences.

The consequences for the Conservatives are an eighthy seat majority. They aren’t complaining about it and won’t until their voters do (and their voters won’t since their xenophobia trumps reason).

CelticRambler

Strazdas wrote: »

But in that case, it was still a huge miscalculation : they didn't understand that the Irish border issue would have to be settled before a US trade deal could go through.

Not so much a miscalculation as evidence of the pathological myopia of Brexiters. For years (and years and years) their view of the world was Plucky Little England against the EU Goliath. For all that they supposedly cared nothing for "the Continent" they were (and still are) obsessed with it to the point of neither seeing nor caring about the other regions of the "British Isles."

As we trundle towards a chaotic start to the UK's New Year, I am sure that this Little Englander's Brexit will eventually be regarded as the start of the breakup of the UK. I cannot see Scotland putting up with this Johnsonian nonsense for long; and in NI, rational men and women will instruct the DUP to GTF out of the way of that territory's economic well-being. If losing those two parts of the Kingdom is not enough to persuade the average English voter to demand a genuinely representative House of Commons (I'm not convinced it would be), then why wouldn't the Welsh opt out of the Union aswell?

Capt'n Midnight

View wrote: »

The consequences for the Conservatives are an eighthy seat majority. They aren’t complaining about it and won’t until their voters do (and their voters won’t since their xenophobia trumps reason).

If you include SF abstention and buying off the DUP with the threat of a border poll it's closer to 100 seat majority.

CelticRambler

View wrote: »

The consequences for the Conservatives are an eighthy seat majority. They aren’t complaining about it and won’t until their voters do (and their voters won’t since their xenophobia trumps reason).

Well, they achieved that majority on the back of a minority share of the vote and a broken promise, the effects of which have yet to be felt. As was pointed out above, many people in Britain still seem to think that the worst of Brexit - the wall-to-wall commentary and divisive debate - is behind them, and everything's carrying on as normal, now that Johnson has his mandate to "Get Brexit Done." If - or when - they wake up to the cold economic reality of a deliberate no-deal next year, the mood will change.

paul71

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

South American beef cant be so bad if the EU were willing to include it in the mercosur deal?
UK shoppers may end up with cheaper beef from South America rather than expensive Irish.

I think I read that there are 50 billion animals slaughtered globally every year so there are no shortage of places for the UK to buy from.

Its absolute muck, which will fill burgers in McDonalds.

Imreoir2

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

South American beef cant be so bad if the EU were willing to include it in the mercosur deal?
UK shoppers may end up with cheaper beef from South America rather than expensive Irish.

I think I read that there are 50 billion animals slaughtered globally every year so there are no shortage of places for the UK to buy from.

Well no, actually. Part of the deal was the South American producers would have to meet EU standards to have access to the EU market. Mercosur were going to be rule takers as the price of access to a major market.

ExMachina1000

paul71 wrote: »

Its absolute muck, which will fill burgers in McDonalds.

McDonald's use young heifers for their meat. Good quality beef

Imreoir2

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

McDonald's use young heifers for their meat. Good quality beef

In Ireland yes, in the US it is vastly inferior quality.

paul71

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

McDonald's use young heifers for their meat. Good quality beef

Makes no difference if you grind it and fry it in grease you start with good meat and end up with muck, now they csan start with muck thats stuffed full of growth hormones.

ExMachina1000

Imreoir2 wrote: »

In Ireland yes, in the US it is vastly inferior quality.

Are we talking about the UK or the United states of America?

paul71

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Are we talking about the UK or the United states of America?

They have to go down the same route of dubious quality and safety if they want to continue eating if they don't buy from Europe. For all the moaning about CAP for years it is CAP that has allowed the Great British public to eat at below the cost of food production for the last 30 years.

ExMachina1000

paul71 wrote: »

They have to go down the same route of dubious quality and safety if they want to continue eating if they don't buy from Europe. For all the moaning about CAP for years it is CAP that has allowed the Great British public to eat at below the cost of food production for the last 30 years.

No they don't. South American countries have to produce to European standards to be part of the mercoursur deal. UK can set it's own standards and apply them to getting a deal of their own.

paul71

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

No they don't. South American countries have to produce to European standards to be part of the mercoursur deal. UK can set it's own standards and apply them to getting a deal of their own.

Ask yourself why? Answer because of the size of the EU market, the EU are deal makers. The UK will be deal takers. Brazil will dump their worst muck on them because the UK cannot refuse.

ExMachina1000

paul71 wrote: »

Ask yourself why? Answer because of the size of the EU market, the EU are deal makers. The UK will be deal takers. Brazil will dump their worst muck on them because the UK cannot refuse.

Of course they can refuse. They can also deal with common wealth countries and or anyone else they feel like.
You would swear non EU countries were all 3rd world slums or something