Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

volchitsa

Enzokk wrote: »

Maybe someone can clarify for me here, I am seeing a lot of numbers and some of them are close to each other so I am worried I will be getting confused.

The UK has the second largest quota in the EU for fish,

Is the EU ‘pinching our fish’?



So out of the 6m tonnes per year the UK gets 752K tonnes allocated to it, right?

But it seems like other links state that other EU countries are fishing within the UK waters to the tune of 683 000 tonnes.

UK fishermen may not win waters back after Brexit, EU memo reveals



So does that mean the total amount of fish taken out of UK waters is the 683K tonnes and then 641K tonnes the UK vessels catch as well?

Also, if Scotland would go independent, surely the fishing argument just about disappears in England and Wales as most of the water that the UK will claim will be north of Scotland.

Isn't that what's behind the push for the Scottish islands to secede from Scotland (and presumably remain with GB)? That would be a huge dent in Scotland's claim to econommic viability.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

What fishing issue ?

Inshore fishing is a dying industry. Shedding jobs all the time. Margins and incomes shrinking. The only real money is in the supertrawlers and that's a handful of jobs.

It's about being seen to do something. Fighting for jobs that won't be there, are they even pretending to be fighting for Tory seats in Scotland ?

It's about a handful of rich investors.

I think that is the best summary of Brexit, the Tory party, and the UK future.

The British Gov have been handing out huge contracts to wholly unqualified companies, some not even one month old, whose backers are donors to Tory party funds.

Look at Grayling's little Ramsgate ferry debacle that had a ferry company, not a year in existence, with no ferries or experience of ferries, awarded a contract worth £13.8 million, to run a RoRo service from a port that could not take RoRo ferries.

listermint

volchitsa wrote: »

Isn't that what's behind the push for the Scottish islands to secede from Scotland (and presumably remain with GB)? That would be a huge dent in Scotland's claim to econommic viability.

Follow the money , I'd garner the islands in question are owned or large tracks are owned south of the border. As with anything money talks especially in the Tory world.

reslfj

This is the official UK report on fishing in 2018.

Look at:
Page 71-76: "TABLE 3.12 Quota, catch and uptake by EU Member States: 2018"

UK fishers complain about the cod quota in area VIId, where France has a much larger quota (likely for historical reasons).
But the actual catch is very small (5% of total quota) and very much the same amount by France and the UK.
Cod is moving north to colder waters.

Compare VIId to the UK quota and catch for cod in the North Sea, where the UK quota is 125 times larger and can be 90% used.

Look at Sand Eel and Sprats small fish eaten by birds and fished for processing to fishmeal and oil. Together with some other smaller fish they explain most of the 'what is caught where' arguments. Much of the reason for catching in UK waters is the seasonal location for the fish. Sand Eels live at/in the bottom except when they reproduce and form large shoals easy to catch.

These 'industrial fish' has much lower value per ton and has never been caught by traditional local fishing comunities.

Take a look add the numbers and tell me the UK has had a bad quota deal in fishing.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/863732/UK_sea_fisheries_statistics_2018.pdf

PS! The UK boats owned by UK companies, which are again owned by non-UK citizens, has nothing to do with EU or the CFP. They exist following UK law and UK law alone (trading in quotas and private property laws). This can only change if the UK government acquire the quotas by paying the full prices.

Lars

Page 112: "Chart 6.2: FAO marine fishing areas"
Page 139: "Appendix 3: ICES divisions" (map UK/EU waters)

reslfj

English and Welsh fishing quotas (indirectly) owned by non-UK citizens. Scottish quotas mostly owned by a few families.




Lars

Capt'n Midnight

reslfj wrote: »

English and Welsh fishing quotas (indirectly) owned by non-UK citizens. Scottish quotas mostly owned by a few families.

52% of NI's quote is held by one trawler that operates out of a different country.

Voyager, Killybegs.

reslfj

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

52% of NI's quote is held by one trawler that operates out of a different country.

Voyager, Killybegs.

But it is owned by a family in NI and operated by people from the island, isn't it?

Do understand, the more efficient and the less people can do the job - the better. Anything else is simply the pathway to be 'out of business' - "if it be not now, yet it will come"

Lars

PS! Automation will very soon make non-skilled jobs few and far between. Acquiring a formal skill will have to be a requirement for every young (and not so young) person having even the smallest ability to learn.

Capt'n Midnight

reslfj wrote: »

But it is owned by a family in NI and operated by people from the island, isn't it?

Do understand, the more efficient and the less people can do the job - the better. Anything else is simply the pathway to be 'out of business' - "if it be not now, yet it will come"

Lars

PS! Automation will very soon make non-skilled jobs few and far between. Acquiring a formal skill will have to be a requirement for every young (and not so young) person having even the smallest ability to learn.

NI has about 900 fishermen. Only about 2% of them work on the boat that has half the quote.

We passed the point of technical efficiency a long time ago. Many jobs only exist because people are cheaper than machines. And only because basic wages haven't kept pace with top earners.

Skilled jobs are going too. Paralegal / legal research assistant stopped being a thing when lawyers could look stuff up on computer. Any thing that can be automated is being automated. Trades like plumbers looks to be a safer long term option vs. having to work an extra hour a week for every extra year of study you did.

Anything that can be outsourced will be. The UK is going to get hard in competition with India for rest of the world if they can't get services with the EU and try to beat them in a race to the bottom.


Brexit isn't for the masses. It's to enrich those who can benefit by pushing the buttons. It Brexit goes the way many of us think people will be dipping into to their savings. Think of it as a cash grab from the have nots to the haves.



“We should do away with the absolutely specious notion that everybody has to earn a living. It is a fact today that one in ten thousand of us can make a technological breakthrough capable of supporting all the rest. The youth of today are absolutely right in recognizing this nonsense of earning a living. We keep inventing jobs because of this false idea that everybody has to be employed at some kind of drudgery because, according to Malthusian Darwinian theory he must justify his right to exist. So we have inspectors of inspectors and people making instruments for inspectors to inspect inspectors. The true business of people should be to go back to school and think about whatever it was they were thinking about before somebody came along and told them they had to earn a living.”
- Buckminster Fuller - 30 March 1970


Edit - https://k8s.thedetail.tv/articles/fishing-post-brexit 875 deckhands ( 92% of NI fishermen voted for Brexit )

Capt'n Midnight

reslfj wrote: »

But it is owned by a family in NI and operated by people from the island, isn't it?

There's also the thing about how much of the UK catch is landed at non-UK ports because the UK don't implement the existing rules that might affect the larger businesses.

And then blame the EU for restrictions and job losses :rolleyes:

Capt'n Midnight

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/brexit-has-now-cost-more-than-the-international-space-station/17/09/

Pitty we didn't see any buses driving around with "let's burn 200 billion pounds for nothing"

You ain't seen nothing yet "hold my beer"

HS2 will cost 106Bn
Covid testing will cost 100Bn - Operation Moonshot
New nuclear power stations will cost 100Bn if they get them built.
UK car industry contributes £202 billion to the economy - a good chunk of that is from the foreign owned car companies
etc. etc.

reslfj

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

NI has about 900 fishermen. Only about 2% of them work on the boat that has half the quote.

You have to talk about quotas in plural - which fish stocks are we talking about the Voyager has quotas for? In which waters does it fish?
Those large boats has to crush smaller boats when talking about open water pelagic fish. They are simply much more efficient.


Of about 100 fish stocks only just over 50 has quotas, while many other stocks - often fished by smaller local boats - has no quotas but minimum sizes and/or allowed catch periods during the year.

Small fishing communities will often rely on more harbours sharing transport to the market. Certification by a Vet on each harbour, paperwork, and potential delays at borders can destroy all profit for these fishers.


Lars

MBSnr

Anyone with a UK bank account and an Irish address? Might need to use a relative's address in the next while.
Not sure if this is based on the nationality you told the bank or for all holding a UK account in the EU member states.

https://www.getmakedigital.com/barclays-to-strip-bank-accounts

An Ciarraioch

Of course, Santander having a Spanish parent company, could serve as an emergency workaround for some of the expats.

10000maniacs

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Of course, Santander having a Spanish parent company, could serve as an emergency workaround for some of the expats.

Santander UK is an autonomous British holding company that is 100% independent of it's Spanish parent. I don't think that will work.

reslfj

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Skilled jobs are going too... Any thing that can be automated is being automated

Anything that can be outsourced will be.

Some skilled jobs will go, but not people with useful skills, disciplined at work and willingness to accept change.

Outsourcing to far away places will be followed by return-sourcing. China is already losing some jobs to countries like Vietnam and some going back to Europe.

Some production do require huge production volumes and factories just can't be placed but in a very few locations/countries. Globalisation is not about the EU, but about a container costing $1000 China<->Europe/USA, air tickets under $1000 to anywhere, and almost free and unlimited communication to anywhere.

This is not going to change much post corona.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://k8s.thedetail.tv/articles/fishing-post-brexit 875 deckhands ( 92% of NI fishermen voted for Brexit )

So many misunderstandings and lack of knowledge, so much 'the old days were much better', much is just local or personal problems - very little EU related or about non Irish EU fishing boats.

"In effect, this could mean that local boats will no longer be allowed to fish in large parts of the Foyle and Carlingford loughs."

I'm very sure only NI/UK and Irish boats has been fishing there. Are quotas involved at all for the fish living there ? These border areas should be a problem the joint committee, I think, will be able to solve.

"I would very much like to have a sensible access arrangement with the rest of Europe"

That will have to be negotiated with the EU-Trade and Michel Barnier in Brussels. There will be no mini deals.

The bonanza in the 1970's (and partly in the 1960's) overfished very many fish stocks and forced all countries - EU and not EU - to agree on quotas . Quotas will not disappear from 2021. It's not the EEZ water that allows you to catch fish, but the sustainability of the shared stocks.

Lars

Sam Russell

MBSnr wrote: »

Anyone with a UK bank account and an Irish address? Might need to use a relative's address in the next while.
Not sure if this is based on the nationality you told the bank or for all holding a UK account in the EU member states.

https://www.getmakedigital.com/barclays-to-strip-bank-accounts

On the UK Gov websites, they reaffirm the continued application of the CTA, but given the IMB and its destruction of any trust in said Gov, it is difficult the check the validity of this story as it apples to Irish residents.

I would not trust them in any thing.

fash

Sam Russell wrote: »

On the UK Gov websites, they reaffirm the continued application of the CTA, but given the IMB and its destruction of any trust in said Gov, it is difficult the check the validity of this story as it apples to Irish residents.

I would not trust them in any thing.

Had read about the update to the CTA - Ireland has wanted it put on a statutory footing, the UK however pointedly put it in a "memorandum of understanding" format.

Peregrinus

volchitsa wrote: »

Isn't that what's behind the push for the Scottish islands to secede from Scotland (and presumably remain with GB)? That would be a huge dent in Scotland's claim to econommic viability.

Not really. Fishing is culturally and perhaps politically iconic, but it's not economically significant.

beggars_bush

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not really. Fishing is culturally and perhaps politically iconic, but it's not economically significant.

It is for coastal towns and villages.
Often the only employment both on and offshore

Peregrinus

beggars_bush wrote: »

It is for coastal towns and villages.
Often the only employment both on and offshore

Yes, but it's not true for the economic viablity of Scotland as a whole, which is what Vochitsa was talking about.

ancapailldorcha

Dumping tweets here for "comedy value" is not what this forum is for. A post has been deleted.

CelticRambler

While recent discussion has been heavily centred on the long-standing habits of fish and those who eat them, nobody's remarked upon the fact that the UK government has awarded a £200m contract to a Japanese-led consortium of themselves and some of Johnson-Cummings' favourite consultancy firms to get on with the business of implementing the NI Protocol (yeah, the one they say that they're not going to respect)

Guardian version
BBC version

I'm sure that the recent conclusion of a trade deal that provided for easy data transfer from the UK to Japan had absolutely nothing to do with the subsequent final decision ... :rolleyes:

Retr0gamer

Brexit is about sovereignty though and not about it being coincidentally timed to coincidentally be in effect before the EU brings in laws that coincidentally tackle money laundering.

The Raging Bile Duct

Retr0gamer wrote: »

Brexit is about sovereignty though and not about it being coincidentally timed to coincidentally be in effect before the EU brings in laws that coincidentally tackle money laundering.

The Brexit process has been such a clusterfúck of ineptness that it's hard to see that as anything other than a coincidence and not some sort of supervillain grand scheme. But maybe their incompetence is just a ruse...

Leroy42

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

The Brexit process has been such a clusterfúck of ineptness that it's hard to see that as anything other than a coincidence and not some sort of supervillain grand scheme. But maybe their incompetence is just a ruse...

There are certainly going to be some people that win big off this, but I don't think there is some super villain scheme to destroy the UK in order to make some money.

I think that it is far baser than that. I believe that many of the Brexiteers actually believe the Kool-aid they have been drinking. They really do believe that the UK is one of the most important countries in the world, and that even the hint of them leaving would have the EU promising them anything.

They really did think tht Ireland would follow the UK, that Italy and others would line up in support. That the likes of Norway would welcome them with open arms into their club.

I get the impression that they really did believe that German car makers would march into Merkels office the day after and within a few days EU would be recast into the UKEU.

That every country in the world would simply fall over themselves to have Britain as a partner, regardless of the one sided nature of the deal that the UK would demand.

Tht the more they threatened No Deal, the more the EU would panic and that any day, any second the EU would come to their senses.

They still believe that. I get the feeling that they were actually shocked with the reaction of the US to their proposal to rip up the WA.

So I certainly think it is a massive case of hubris rather than some overarching grand plan. Certainly some no doubt have a plan, but the majority of those gladly supporting whatever the latest BRexit line is, the likes of Nadine Doris etc, are simply taken in by the bravado.

McGiver

Latest Brendan O'Neil's intellectual vomit.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/17/its-time-for-ireland-to-grow-up/

Such exploitation of smaller nations as part of a bigger imperial game is not new, of course. If anyone in the Irish elite genuinely believes that the mighty US and the oligarchical EU are genuinely concerned about Ireland’s future, rather than being driven by an imperious disdain for Brexit, then they are sorely mistaken. The EU has treated Ireland like a colony for years. It rode roughshod over democratic Irish votes against the Nice and Lisbon treaties. It sent the Troika to enforce economic measures in Ireland over the heads of its own elected politicians. It has spent years trying to force Ireland to rewrite its corporate tax laws. And it will be extracting huge amounts of money from Ireland to fund the Covid bailout.

The EU is no friend of Ireland. Its constant expression of concern about Ireland’s borders and Ireland’s future is driven by animus towards Brexit, not love for the Republic of Ireland or Northern Ireland. The unquestioning attitude of so much of Ireland’s political and cultural elite in relation to how the EU views and uses Ireland is depressing. The country which last year celebrated the hundredth anniversary of the First Dail – the parliament that sat between 1919 and 1921 in the revolutionary Irish Republic – is now happy to see itself used by foreign powers as a stick with which to beat democracy in its neighbouring nation. That’s a tragedy. Ireland needs to grow up and stand with Britain against the anti-democratic machinations of the new empires.

Some of this are outright lies. This guy needs to head his head checked, if he really believes his pamphlets. If he doesn't then he's just a dirty extreme Tory propagandist. Nobody will ever agree with this nonsense in Ireland if this was meant for an Irish audience. How ironic he is of Irish descent apparently.

The Raging Bile Duct

Leroy42 wrote: »

There are certainly going to be some people that win big off this, but I don't think there is some super villain scheme to destroy the UK in order to make some money.

I think that it is far baser than that. I believe that many of the Brexiteers actually believe the Kool-aid they have been drinking. They really do believe that the UK is one of the most important countries in the world, and that even the hint of them leaving would have the EU promising them anything.

They really did think tht Ireland would follow the UK, that Italy and others would line up in support. That the likes of Norway would welcome them with open arms into their club.

I get the impression that they really did believe that German car makers would march into Merkels office the day after and within a few days EU would be recast into the UKEU.

That every country in the world would simply fall over themselves to have Britain as a partner, regardless of the one sided nature of the deal that the UK would demand.

Tht the more they threatened No Deal, the more the EU would panic and that any day, any second the EU would come to their senses.

They still believe that. I get the feeling that they were actually shocked with the reaction of the US to their proposal to rip up the WA.

So I certainly think it is a massive case of hubris rather than some overarching grand plan. Certainly some no doubt have a plan, but the majority of those gladly supporting whatever the latest BRexit line is, the likes of Nadine Doris etc, are simply taken in by the bravado.

I totally agree with that. There's those who can smell the blood in the water and are ready to pounce and profit, and part of me thinks we'll see the rise of a British oligarchy while we see a startling rise in the number of people living below the poverty line, but for the most part, Brexit has seemed has seemed like an exercise in total brainlessness.

The Raging Bile Duct

McGiver wrote: »

Latest Brendan O'Neil's intellectual vomit.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/17/its-time-for-ireland-to-grow-up/



Some of this are outright lies. This guy needs to head his head checked, if he really believes his pamphlets. If he doesn't then he's just a dirty extreme Tory propagandist. Nobody will ever agree with this nonsense in Ireland if this was meant for an Irish audience. How ironic he is of Irish descent apparently.

I love this part:

If the UK refuses to accept this arrangement, if it does anything to push back against the EU’s virtual annexation of a part of UK territory, then a future President Biden would punish us economically.

Hmmm, who annexed it first, I wonder...

J Mysterio

McGiver wrote: »

Latest Brendan O'Neil's intellectual vomit.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/17/its-time-for-ireland-to-grow-up/



Some of this are outright lies. This guy needs to head his head checked, if he really believes his pamphlets. If he doesn't then he's just a dirty extreme Tory propagandist. Nobody will ever agree with this nonsense in Ireland if this was meant for an Irish audience. How ironic he is of Irish descent apparently.

He's of "Irish peasant stock".

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

There are certainly going to be some people that win big off this, but I don't think there is some super villain scheme to destroy the UK in order to make some money.

I think that it is far baser than that. I believe that many of the Brexiteers actually believe the Kool-aid they have been drinking. They really do believe that the UK is one of the most important countries in the world, and that even the hint of them leaving would have the EU promising them anything.

They really did think tht Ireland would follow the UK, that Italy and others would line up in support. That the likes of Norway would welcome them with open arms into their club.

I get the impression that they really did believe that German car makers would march into Merkels office the day after and within a few days EU would be recast into the UKEU.

That every country in the world would simply fall over themselves to have Britain as a partner, regardless of the one sided nature of the deal that the UK would demand.

Tht the more they threatened No Deal, the more the EU would panic and that any day, any second the EU would come to their senses.

They still believe that. I get the feeling that they were actually shocked with the reaction of the US to their proposal to rip up the WA.

So I certainly think it is a massive case of hubris rather than some overarching grand plan. Certainly some no doubt have a plan, but the majority of those gladly supporting whatever the latest BRexit line is, the likes of Nadine Doris etc, are simply taken in by the bravado.

The scale of the ERG and it's links to tufton street along with double jobbing and large sums of donations to Tory coffers counter that.

I'm all in for hubris to a point. But the level of money and the nefarious nature of much of the key players counters that view to an extent.

In simplest terms greed. Greed greed and more greed.