Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

joeysoap

Portugal are ‘ oldest’ allies. You can hear it already.

druss

joeysoap wrote: »

Portugal are our oldest allies. Our being the UK.As if that a game changer.

Indeed!

Actually, the documentary that this was from was eye-opening. I'm surprised the Foreign Office agreed to it at all.

Leroy42

So it would appear that the call between Johnson and vdL achieved very little.

Johnson is going to let, yet another, deadline pass (15th October).

At this point I think a no deal is actually better for the EU rather than a hastily agreed compromise that suits nobody and achieves nothing lasting.

Shelga

What’s likely to happen in the first three months after no deal? How long before the UK is begging for a deal, any deal?

Capt'n Midnight

Shelga wrote: »

I would have asked- “are you not ashamed to face CEOs up and down the country- 88 days away from the end of the transition period, and they have absolutely no idea what terms they will be trading on then? What are the positives here for them?”

There's this other expense and inconvenience too.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54377749

Thousands of UK businesses may need to set up an EU presence if they want to export goods to European markets, according to trade consultants Blick Rothenberg.

And a reminder that that the UK's Nett EU contributions will be wiped out by paperwork. Add the same costs again for the EU side and imports from the UK get more expensive.

HMRC estimates the cost of filling in 200 million customs declarations alone - deal or no deal - will cost UK business more than £7bn a year.

Going Strong

Leroy42 wrote: »

Seems the oft discussed loss of financial industry jobs is starting to ramp up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-30/brexit-prompts-7-500-finance-jobs-1-6-trillion-to-leave-u-k?__twitter_impression=true

And this is with an extension to June 2022. I said at the time that was announced, of course claimed as a win by Brexiteers, that it was actually a massive warning sign that the EU were definitely moving away from London but just needed more time to sort everything out.

The Yorkshire Bylines website has started a list of companies who either have left or will leave the UK. Taken one by one, any Brexiteer could possibly say "Well, businesses will move about all the time" but when the ever increasing list is right in front of you.... bloody hell.


https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/brexit-the-digby-jones-jobs-lost-index-is-launched/


"F**k business" indeed.

Capt'n Midnight

In news that will not come as a surprise to anyone the UK's Shared Prosperity Fund isn't matching the £375m a year Wales used to get from EU Structural Funds.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54374532

johnnyskeleton

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

There's this other expense and inconvenience too.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54377749

And a reminder that that the UK's Nett EU contributions will be wiped out by paperwork. Add the same costs again for the EU side and imports from the UK get more expensive.

Its funny that the Conservatives are pursuing the policies that are often used by extreme left wing advocates of Brexit (Lexiteers, as they say).

If the cost is the same, it is now being borne by business instead of the government. This will free up extra government funds to renationalise various industries with no state aid rules.

And much like most extreme left views, they are great on paper and will work wonderfully for 6-12 months, until corporation tax receipts are down and business close causing higher employment and even less taxes and more welfare payments.

Sam Russell

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Its funny that the Conservatives are pursuing the policies that are often used by extreme left wing advocates of Brexit (Lexiteers, as they say).

If the cost is the same, it is now being borne by business instead of the government. This will free up extra government funds to renationalise various industries with no state aid rules.

And much like most extreme left views, they are great on paper and will work wonderfully for 6-12 months, until corporation tax receipts are down and business close causing higher employment and even less taxes and more welfare payments.

Brexit will cost the UK Gov directly just to provide the services that the EU provides centrally to all member states. They also must provide customs and border control that never existed before for EU imports and exports and that requires 50,000 newly trained Customs Officers, who have yet to be hired - with deployment starting in 90 days. Then there are the many regulators that are needed. It never ends, and it all will cost a lot.

The extra costs incurred by business is extra, not a saving. Every customs entry has to be checked by a customs officer, so no easy transfer of costs to the private sector.

They have left the EU, but the real change has yet to happen.

Joe_ Public

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Its funny that the Conservatives are pursuing the policies that are often used by extreme left wing advocates of Brexit (Lexiteers, as they say).

If the cost is the same, it is now being borne by business instead of the government. This will free up extra government funds to renationalise various industries with no state aid rules.

And much like most extreme left views, they are great on paper and will work wonderfully for 6-12 months, until corporation tax receipts are down and business close causing higher employment and even less taxes and more welfare payments.

Not entirely disagreeing with you or speaking up for so called lexiteers, but i don't particularly see the notion of nationalisation belonging in any way to the extreme. Rationalisation of certain industries goes down pretty well in polling across the population. Where i think many on the left get it wrong is in seeing eu membership as more of a threat to those ambitions than they need to be.

johnnyskeleton

Sam Russell wrote: »

Brexit will cost the UK Gov directly just to provide the services that the EU provides centrally to all member states. They also must provide customs and border control that never existed before for EU imports and exports and that requires 50,000 newly trained Customs Officers, who have yet to be hired - with deployment starting in 90 days. Then there are the many regulators that are needed. It never ends, and it all will cost a lot.

The extra costs incurred by business is extra, not a saving. Every customs entry has to be checked by a customs officer, so no easy transfer of costs to the private sector.

They have left the EU, but the real change has yet to happen.

Im not saying that it wont cost the UK Govt anything, but they are shifting most of the administrative cost onto businesses. The 50,000 jobs is customs agents to be hired by exporters:

https://www.ft.com/content/6cf7bba6-598f-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20

That admission means that private-sector customs agents — staff trained to fill in customs forms and clear them with the authorities — will become one of the big growth sectors in the British employment market in the next year.

By the time Britain exits the transition period, the private sector may have hired four times more people to fill in customs forms than the 12,000 people working as fishermen in the UK — the industry that is supposedly one of the big beneficiaries of Brexit.

This is now estimated to be a £7bn hit to industry as they have to set up offices in an EU state and will have the extra burden of admin.

The more recent news is that the chemicals industry will have to pay for a regulatory body which could cost a billion or more (might be over a number of years).

Its important to recognise that what ia often not said is that this is all shifting the cost from the UK Govt to UK exporting businesses.

Coupled with the lacklustre replacements of the CAP farm grants and the regional payments, I wonder are they trying to be able to say "look how much extra the public finances have" to the absolute detriment of the private sector. They certainly arent suggesting that the "£350m extra per week" be spent helping out British businesses and individuals affected by Brexit anyway!

johnnyskeleton

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not entirely disagreeing with you or speaking up for so called lexiteers, but i don't particularly see the notion of nationalisation belonging in any way to the extreme. Rationalisation of certain industries goes down pretty well in polling across the population. Where i think many on the left get it wrong is in seeing eu membership as more of a threat to those ambitions than they need to be.

I agree with that principle. But the type of exemptions fron state aid rules that the UK is insisiting on i.e. beyond what the EU currently allows, is an extreme form that allows them to nationalise any industry, as opposed to those that are matters of public interest

ancapailldorcha

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Its funny that the Conservatives are pursuing the policies that are often used by extreme left wing advocates of Brexit (Lexiteers, as they say).

If the cost is the same, it is now being borne by business instead of the government. This will free up extra government funds to renationalise various industries with no state aid rules.

And much like most extreme left views, they are great on paper and will work wonderfully for 6-12 months, until corporation tax receipts are down and business close causing higher employment and even less taxes and more welfare payments.

The thing is that there has been a significant shift in British politics away from Economics towards culture. Both parties are now more similar economically than they've ever been as far as I know.

Brexit is part of the culture war so it was the main dividing issue. Once it plays out, insofar as that is possible I don't know what will replace it. People want Brexit for cultural reasons, not because anyone seriously thinks the country will be better off.

Joe_ Public

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I agree with that principle. But the type of exemptions fron state aid rules that the UK is insisiting on i.e. beyond what the EU currently allows, is an extreme form that allows them to nationalise any industry, as opposed to those that are matters of public interest

You mean that this tory government is insisting on? I'm bamboozled by the whole thing tbh, I mean i can understand why the state aid issue could be a deal for those on the left, but why the free market small state loving tories are getting all hot and bothered over it is just another illustration of the mad hatter world they're living in from what i can see.

johnnyskeleton

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The thing is that there has been a significant shift in British politics away from Economics towards culture. Both parties are now more similar economically than they've ever been as far as I know.

Brexit is part of the culture war so it was the main dividing issue. Once it plays out, insofar as that is possible I don't know what will replace it. People want Brexit for cultural reasons, not because anyone seriously thinks the country will be better off.

Yeah true. But I do like pointing out some of the ironies it causes. Gove saying that red tape is the price of Brexit, when many campaigned for Brexit to remove red tape etc (cant find any clear refer to red tape by gove in 2016, but he did say they could reduce regulation in his manifesto article).

As to the cultural reasons and it playing out, Im not sure how or why it will end. Brexit and Trump has seemed to energise people in similar ways in the US and UK in ways which are a constant source of puzzlement. They often have traditionally right wing views, but then bizzarely being in almost socialist rhetoric. And their appeal cuts across traditional left right divides in many ways.

Brexit in a sense can mean anything and everything at any given time. The only unifying part of it seems to be the perception of the EU as an enemy. As Fintan O Toole said a few years back, the best thing the EU couldve done to prevent Brexit was to openly and publically support it. Then the anti-EU crowd wouldve stayed in out of spite

Sam Russell

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Im not saying that it wont cost the UK Govt anything, but they are shifting most of the administrative cost onto businesses. The 50,000 jobs is customs agents to be hired by exporters:

https://www.ft.com/content/6cf7bba6-598f-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20

I think both state and non-state employees will be required. 50,000 to fill in the forms, and 50,000 to check them.

This is now estimated to be a £7bn hit to industry as they have to set up offices in an EU state and will have the extra burden of admin.

The more recent news is that the chemicals industry will have to pay for a regulatory body which could cost a billion or more (might be over a number of years).

Its important to recognise that what ia often not said is that this is all shifting the cost from the UK Govt to UK exporting businesses.

Coupled with the lacklustre replacements of the CAP farm grants and the regional payments, I wonder are they trying to be able to say "look how much extra the public finances have" to the absolute detriment of the private sector. They certainly arent suggesting that the "£350m extra per week" be spent helping out British businesses and individuals affected by Brexit anyway!

It is a nightmare of hidden costs, lost subsidies, and transfer of power to Westminster from the EU, and from devolved assemblies. A power grab.

None of this was promised by the Leave campaign, and was actually denied.

johnnyskeleton

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You mean that this tory government is insisting on? I'm bamboozled by the whole thing tbh, I mean i can understand why the state aid issue could be a deal for those on the left, but why the free market small state loving tories are getting all hot and bothered over it is just another illustration of the mad hatter world they're living in from what i can see.

Exactly! And if it was simply a case of e.g. loosening State Aid rules in certain areas, Im not sure the EU would be against that either. It was, historically, the UK which was more concerned about other EU countries propping up failing industries than the other way around, and increased public sector spending is popular across the EU.

It is even implicit in Ursula von der Leyens "State of the Union" speech that EU led public sector health is an area likely to increase over the next few years. Wait till she sees that the HSE has more administrative problems than the Bundeswehr!

TexasTornado

2016 seems a lifetime away now. No Brexit, no Trump, no Covid.

ancapailldorcha

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Yeah true. But I do like pointing out some of the ironies it causes. Gove saying that red tape is the price of Brexit, when many campaigned for Brexit to remove red tape etc (cant find any clear refer to red tape by gove in 2016, but he did say they could reduce regulation in his manifesto article).

As to the cultural reasons and it playing out, Im not sure how or why it will end. Brexit and Trump has seemed to energise people in similar ways in the US and UK in ways which are a constant source of puzzlement. They often have traditionally right wing views, but then bizzarely being in almost socialist rhetoric. And their appeal cuts across traditional left right divides in many ways.

Brexit in a sense can mean anything and everything at any given time. The only unifying part of it seems to be the perception of the EU as an enemy. As Fintan O Toole said a few years back, the best thing the EU couldve done to prevent Brexit was to openly and publically support it. Then the anti-EU crowd wouldve stayed in out of spite

I used to but there are simply too many now. I saw a tweet the other day showing Michael Gove boasting about Brexit reducing red tape and now he's saying that it's the price of freedom from the "anti-science" EU.

The contrast between Brexit and Trump is that the latter is replaceable and subject to checks and balance whereas the former can be anything the Conservative party which consistently fails to win much more than 40% of the vote wants it to be.

Sadly, I'd agree with Fintan O'Toole there.

looksee

And then there's the £375m per year that Wales has been getting from the EU that London has undertaken to provide. Except Brexit is now done and there is no sign of the money. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54374532

Edit - it alone is about the same as the amount the UK was going to save in contributions by getting out of Europe. (oh no, sorry, that was per week, bit of difference )

johnnyskeleton

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think both state and non-state employees will be required. 50,000 to fill in the forms, and 50,000 to check them.

The checking will be done by EU countries in relation to exports. As to how many customs agents the UK will need themselves, who knows? They still havent made it clear what post Brexit Britain is going to look like, and its still possible that they will unilaterally waive tarrifs on a large number of imports when faced with portside disaster in January. Their position on importsled goods standards seems to be "its probably going to be the same as the EU, but we wont commit anything to writing". So on day 1, unless matters change dramatically, the UKs customs agents simply wont know what is or is not allowed.

It is a nightmare of hidden costs, lost subsidies, and transfer of power to Westminster from the EU, and from devolved assemblies. A power grab.

None of this was promised by the Leave campaign, and was actually denied.

Agreed. They want to have the power, but dont know how to use it. To paraphrase the Joker in The Dark Night, the UK government is like a dog chasing a mail truck. If they ever caught it, they wouldnt know what to do with it

looksee

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The checking will be done by EU countries in relation to exports. As to how many customs agents the UK will need themselves, who knows? They still havent made it clear what post Brexit Britain is going to look like, and its still possible that they will unilaterally waive tarrifs on a large number of imports when faced with portside disaster in January. Their position on importsled goods standards seems to be "its probably going to be the same as the EU, but we wont commit anything to writing". So on day 1, unless matters change dramatically, the UKs customs agents simply wont know what is or is not allowed.

Just think how many Unions will decide this is a good time to go out on strike.

steddyeddy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The thing is that there has been a significant shift in British politics away from Economics towards culture. Both parties are now more similar economically than they've ever been as far as I know.

Brexit is part of the culture war so it was the main dividing issue. Once it plays out, insofar as that is possible I don't know what will replace it. People want Brexit for cultural reasons, not because anyone seriously thinks the country will be better off.

I think you're very right here. This is more about culture than economics or even the economy. Amazingly, the Conservatives are now essentially a Brexit party. Brexit being a phenomenon which is the least fiscally Conservative movement you can imagine.

CelticRambler

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

its still possible that they will unilaterally waive tarrifs on a large number of imports when faced with portside disaster in January. Their position on importsled goods standards seems to be "its probably going to be the same as the EU, but we wont commit anything to writing". So on day 1, unless matters change dramatically, the UKs customs agents simply wont know what is or is not allowed.

For which reason the EU will say "well if you don't know what you're going to allow in, we'll wait until you do know before we grant EU approval to anything with the "made in Britain" label, because it could contain any old crap."

The downside of #TakeBackControl is you've got to actually take back control; otherwise, you're nothing but a banana republic.

fash

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Brexit is part of the culture war so it was the main dividing issue. Once it plays out, insofar as that is possible I don't know what will replace it. People want Brexit for cultural reasons, not because anyone seriously thinks the country will be better off.

Why do you think it will play out? There will always be scope to blame the EU for taking jobs, not allowing UK return refugees, not giving UK what's rightfully theirs, mistreating retirees, threading British banks, plucky blighty standing up to the evil EU etc etc. - and the right-wing press will keep force-feeding that to people

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

Why do you think it will play out? There will always be scope to blame the EU for taking jobs, not allowing UK return refugees, not giving UK what's rightfully theirs, mistreating retirees, threading British banks, plucky blighty standing up to the evil EU etc etc. - and the right-wing press will keep force-feeding that to people

That narrative can only hold true as long as the UK remains the Anglo-dominant union with three Celtic provincial nations that it is today. If/when Scotland & NI leave the union and (apply to) rejoin the EU and then show clear signs of the benefits of membership, that'll put huge pressure on the Welsh to dissociate themselves from the rump of the Kingdom. Sacrificing Welsh farmers, Welsh port workers, Welsh industry, Welsh tourism on the altar of English nationalism will not play well over the course of the next decade, and will almost certainly generate exactly the kind of separatist nationalism in Wales that has us where we are today in respect of Brexit.

Give it ten years, and prospect of one, two or even three referendums on the dissolution of the Kingdom, and I think even the most tabloid-indoctrinated man-down-the-pub will have got tired of blaming the EU.

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

Why do you think it will play out? There will always be scope to blame the EU for taking jobs, not allowing UK return refugees, not giving UK what's rightfully theirs, mistreating retirees, threading British banks, plucky blighty standing up to the evil EU etc etc. - and the right-wing press will keep force-feeding that to people

That narrative can only hold true as long as the UK remains the Anglo-dominant union with three Celtic provincial nations that it is today. If/when Scotland & NI leave the union and (apply to) rejoin the EU and then show clear signs of the benefits of membership, that'll put huge pressure on the Welsh to dissociate themselves from the rump of the Kingdom. Sacrificing Welsh farmers, Welsh port workers, Welsh industry, Welsh tourism on the altar of English nationalism will not play well over the course of the next decade, and will almost certainly generate exactly the kind of separatist nationalism in Wales that has us where we are today in respect of Brexit.

Give it ten years, and prospect of one, two or even three referendums on the dissolution of the Kingdom, and I think even the most tabloid-indoctrinated man-down-the-pub will have got tired of blaming the EU.

Capt'n Midnight

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Exactly! And if it was simply a case of e.g. loosening State Aid rules in certain areas, Im not sure the EU would be against that either. It was, historically, the UK which was more concerned about other EU countries propping up failing industries than the other way around, and increased public sector spending is popular across the EU.

The UK always had the right to Blue Passports. Except they are now being made by a French company because they were cheaper than the UK company De La Rue.

French Passports are made by a French company because the French Government played the "national security" card so that they can't be done by the UK company even if cheaper. It's in the rules if you bother to read them.

Similar issues with steelworks that make railway tracks. The UK works was sold off to the Chinese, the French one wasn't.


But the UK prefer to blame EU rules rather than actually using them. Deporting unemployed EU citizens was always allowed. Just wasn't done. On a sliding scale of incompetence to always being able to promise to "fix the potholes" UK home ministers have nothing to feel proud about.

Capt'n Midnight

looksee wrote: »

And then there's the £375m per year that Wales has been getting from the EU that London has undertaken to provide. Except Brexit is now done and there is no sign of the money. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54374532

Edit - it alone is about the same as the amount the UK was going to save in contributions by getting out of Europe. (oh no, sorry, that was per week, bit of difference )

Not as much difference as you think. Wales is less than 5% of the UK population and it's only structural funds not the entire EU monies.

Could be worse. Could be Cornwall. Without EU funds the locals might as well be in a theme park for English retirees and English holiday homes.

20silkcut

CelticRambler wrote: »

That narrative can only hold true as long as the UK remains the Anglo-dominant union with three Celtic provincial nations that it is today. If/when Scotland & NI leave the union and (apply to) rejoin the EU and then show clear signs of the benefits of membership, that'll put huge pressure on the Welsh to dissociate themselves from the rump of the Kingdom. Sacrificing Welsh farmers, Welsh port workers, Welsh industry, Welsh tourism on the altar of English nationalism will not play well over the course of the next decade, and will almost certainly generate exactly the kind of separatist nationalism in Wales that has us where we are today in respect of Brexit.

Give it ten years, and prospect of one, two or even three referendums on the dissolution of the Kingdom, and I think even the most tabloid-indoctrinated man-down-the-pub will have got tired of blaming the EU.

The reality is the British government have the means to forcibly hold the union together. Look at how Spain quelled the basques 3 years ago. I can’t see any British government blithely allowing the disintegration of the U.K.
That would be a massive defeat for them.