Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Better to invent a deadline (15th october), go into a tunnel with a blackout, hide inside eating ham sandwiches for a day or two, and then emerge blinking and dishevelled to declare that you soundly beat the EU and forced them to accept your fish deal in return for a small concession on LPF. (the fish deal will also be the EU version, but with a union jack sticker on it)

Sounds good on paper, but experience to date suggests that the ERG (and variations thereof) are entirely capable of torpedoing at the very last minute anything that the take exception to, for any reason. And the EU know this, so it's in the EU's interest to have everything thrashed out domestically before retiring to the tunnel for their ham (or jam) sandwiches.

Zubeneschamali

I think if this U turn is discussed domestically, it fails. If it is sprung as a surprise victory, there is a chance it succeeds. Nothing to lose for the EU in allowing Johnson to sell folding his hand whatever way works.

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

Sounds good on paper, but experience to date suggests that the ERG (and variations thereof) are entirely capable of torpedoing at the very last minute anything that the take exception to, for any reason. And the EU know this, so it's in the EU's interest to have everything thrashed out domestically before retiring to the tunnel for their ham (or jam) sandwiches.

The ERG is not the power it was, though. It has about 50 members. That's enough to call a vote of confidence in Johnson as party leader, but not enough to defeat him. And while, if they are absolutely solid and vote with the Labour Party against a deal they could defeat it, that might be an outcome Johnson could live with. Every negative consequence of a no-deal Brexit (and there would be many) instantly and irrevocably becomes their fault (and, therefore, not Johnson's).

54and56

CelticRambler wrote: »

Sounds good on paper, but experience to date suggests that the ERG (and variations thereof) are entirely capable of torpedoing at the very last minute anything that the take exception to, for any reason. And the EU know this, so it's in the EU's interest to have everything thrashed out domestically before retiring to the tunnel for their ham (or jam) sandwiches.

The contrarian / paradoxical view here is that Labour may well whip to abstain thus achieving three things of importance to them:-

1. They cut the legs from under any ERG inspired rebellion as the BoJo loyal Tory majority is a multiple of what the ERG and associated Brexit fundamentals can muster on a good day.

2. By abstaining they won't be seen to be blocking BoJo's Brexit but equally their finger prints won't be any where near the deal thus avoiding any future accusations that they also backed it.

3. They get to move the national agenda on from Brexit, which they can't win on, and onto issues which they know they can highlight BoJo and Co's incompetency on.

Winters

No matter how Boris sells it internally, the actual text will be key.

The FTA may just go the way of the WA and accompanying Political Declaration.

Boris will sign an agreement, spin it as a victory and the EU will keep shtum. Then it'll all unravel after a few months when the UK realizes it has to pay more for imports and when Sammy Wilson protests naked at a customs post being erected in Larne.

ancapailldorcha

I agree with Peregrinus in that the ERG are mostly a spent force. I would add that the galvanising effect of the Brexit deal has largely gone. Before, they spoke in unison and had sympathisers outside the group in the Tory party and the DUP. Now, that wing of the party is the government and the DUP are no longer a political force.

If Johnson is to capitulate, it'll be last minute I think. The government love to play brinkmanship too much for anything else to happen. Meanwhile, the ERG have largely disappeared. A few months isn't enough for them to make themselves relevant again and even if they did, all they'd be doing is having the likes of Steve Baker do interviews on TV.

I don't think there's much they can do without some form of alliance with Labour, the SNP and other Tories.

Leroy42

Well Brexit has happened, so the main cause of the ERG has been achieved. I would imagine that even they can see the damage that would result from a No Deal and whilst they will moan, at most, IMO, they may abstain from a vote.

It will be sold as this is, especially with COVID, the best way to part in the short-term but they have their own laws, no immigrants and finally money for the NHS.

Strazdas

The main problem I have with a trade deal is that I can see the UK reneging on it almost immediately. Johnson's cabinet and party is packed with fanatics and fantasists and they will be tempted to break free of the deal and set themselves up as hostile competitors of the EU and SM.

The very fact they are in the process of "divorcing" the EU is not a good sign. The same anti-EU govt will be in place for the next four years.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

The main problem I have with a trade deal is that I can see the UK reneging on it almost immediately. Johnson's cabinet and party is packed with fanatics and fantasists and they will be tempted to break free of the deal and set themselves up as hostile competitors of the EU and SM.

The very fact they are in the process of "divorcing" the EU is not a good sign. The same anti-EU govt will be in place for the next four years.

I don't know.

I'm wondering if the recent Internal Market bill was just a ploy to try and bluff in negotiations similar to how Parliament was prorogued last year.

It is the nuclear option. It's still early to panic but they've really done a number on the UK's diplomatic reputation.

ambro25

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I hope so, but to pull the wool over peoples eyes properly you have to capitulate at the last minute while declaring victory.

Sending signals ahead of time that you are going to surrender gives your opposition (the ERG) time to figure it out.

Better to invent a deadline (15th october), go into a tunnel with a blackout, hide inside eating ham sandwiches for a day or two, and then emerge blinking and dishevelled to declare that you soundly beat the EU and forced them to accept your fish deal in return for a small concession on LPF. (the fish deal will also be the EU version, but with a union jack sticker on it)

Do you think that could be one such (low-level) signal:

Together with the UK Government “EU Member States Engagement Border and Protocol Delivery Group”, the Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce and the Belgian-Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce in the UK are pleased to invite you to attend the webinar:

"Brexit Industry Day": Information about UK regulations

which will take place on Wednesday, October 14, 2020 from 09:00 to 10:30 in digital form.

UK officials will present details and take questions about border requirements on customs systems and processes, the movement of food, animals, plants and other controlled goods and provide an update on transport arrangements and the UK's data adequacy assessment.

To register, please click here

In order to prepare for this webinar, participants are invited to acquaint themselves with the campaign, “Keep Business Moving,” on the dedicated webpage, www.gov.uk/eubusiness, which provides information on the actions EU businesses can take to continue trading smoothly with the UK at the end of the year.

(from link)

I received a direct invite in my inbox this morning for this event, and the date kinda stuck out and struck me

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know.

I'm wondering if the recent Internal Market bill was just a ploy to try and bluff in negotiations similar to how Parliament was prorogued last year.

It is the nuclear option. It's still early to panic but they've really done a number on the UK's diplomatic reputation.

The one thing we know about the Brexiteers is they are a deeply divided movement. Whatever the outcome, they will be very unhappy with it. Apparently Cummings is firmly in the No Deal camp, which would be a worry even if a deal is signed.

10000maniacs

10000maniacs wrote: »

If you have to use the WTO, at least have somebody on the inside. LOL.

It looks like Liam Fox has been rejected as WTO chief. That must have been a bitter blow to Johnson for his "No deal" Brexit strategy. Probably why he is throwing the EU some concessions now.

View

Strazdas wrote: »

The one thing we know about the Brexiteers is they are a deeply divided movement. Whatever the outcome, they will be very unhappy with it. Apparently Cummings is firmly in the No Deal camp, which would be a worry even if a deal is signed.

Brexiters are very united in their hatred of all things European. That’s the defining ideology behind them and any agreement that exceeds the bare minimum will be opposed by most of them. The only issue is what is their bare minimum.

At this stage, the EU countries would probably be better opting for a “no deal is better than a bad deal” scenario and - after a long “decontamination” period in which they won’t open negotiations on any future deals with the U.K. - insist on freedom of movement as a precondition for any deals with the U.K. If the by-then long departed U.K. don’t like that precondition then the EU countries can collectively “exercise their sovereignty” and leave the U.K. with “no deal” for an indefinite basis.

Zubeneschamali

If its No Deal now, talks on a deal of some sort will resume next year after chaos in the UK brings them back to the table. Trade talks are never really over, they just move on to another round.

ancapailldorcha

10000maniacs wrote: »

It looks like Liam Fox has been rejected as WTO chief. That must have been a bitter blow to Johnson for his "No deal" Brexit strategy. Probably why he is throwing the EU some concessions now.

I don't think it is. As WTO chief, Fox would have had little, if any power to asssist Johnson. The Trump administration has effectively gutted the appellate court as well. There's a BBC link about Fox dropping out but it's barely been talked about over here at all. He's not been protrayed as some sort of champion of British interests at all.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If its No Deal now, talks on a deal of some sort will resume next year after chaos in the UK brings them back to the table. Trade talks are never really over, they just move on to another round.

No. Just no.

I've had my fill. If it weren't for the pandemic I think I might have left by now. I have a secure job only for another 18 months or so. I want this over now so I can make some sort of long term decision whether or not to chance my luck on the continent or head back to Dublin and pull pints or something. A lot of people need some degree of certainty and these silly games HM Government insist on playing are just cruel.

This was a farce in 2019 when they were begging for extensions moments after bragging about no deal being better than a bad one. I don't know what to call it now.

Leroy42

One must remember that the WA, which was enthusiastically passed by the ERG, was worse than the WA than TM tried to get through and contained all the things that the ERG claimed they could never accept (Divorce settlement, different customs for NI). But they not only accepted it they went out to bat for it.

They will be told that this is the best option available, and that it leaves them free to continue to move further away as they get things working on their side.

I told ya

My own view is that Borris will fold at the end, it will be dressed up/claimed as a victory. A week or two of disruption at the ports and airports will concentrate a lot of minds.

I don't think that he is a Brexiteer at heart. Brexit was just a vehicle to further his ambition to be PM. Remain would win the referendum and he could say to the euro sceptics that he was one of them, I've done my best, leave it for a few years, etc. But the plan backfired. Also, it has been reported that just prior to declaring his position he wrote two articles, remain and leave. So he was trying to figure out which side would further his ambition.

Maybe I'm not reading the right news channels, blogs, etc. but I get the impression that a lot of the high profile Brexit MPs, supporters, people who were vocal, are not so prominent now. Eg can't remember the last time I saw/heard JRM, Marc Francois, Liam Fox and others telling the world how great it was all going to be. Maybe I'm missing something here.

ancapailldorcha

I told ya wrote: »

My own view is that Borris will fold at the end, it will be dressed up/claimed as a victory. A week or two of disruption at the ports and airports will concentrate a lot of minds.

I don't think that he is a Brexiteer at heart. Brexit was just a vehicle to further his ambition to be PM. Remain would win the referendum and he could say to the euro sceptics that he was one of them, I've done my best, leave for a few years, etc. But the plan backfired. Also, it has been reported that just prior to declaring his position he wrote two articles, remain and leave. So he was trying to figure out which side would further his ambition.

Maybe I'm not reading the right news channels, blogs, etc. but I get the impression that a lot of the high profile Brexit MPs, supporters, people who were vocal, are not so prominent now. Eg can't remember the last time I saw/heard JRM, Marc Francois, Liam Fox and others telling the world how great it was all going to be. Maybe I'm missing something here.

This'd be my take as well. Businesses, trade unions, industry groups and so on have been on about this and will have been lobbying about this for a long time. Whitehall will have made sure the government knows what happens in a no deal scenario.

The British have consistently folded when they've had no hand to play come crunch time. Of course, that's no guarantee but it's some indicator.

As regards Johnson, I think he's a Brexiter but an apathetic one. If you read both of his referendum day op-eds the Brexity one is very optimistic while the Remain one is quite grumbling and resigned in tone. He's ultimately two things - lazy and ruthless. I think he was happy to exploit the referendum to build himself a base to catapult himself into No. 10 expecting a remain win. For some reason, years on he's opted for the poisoned chalice and stands to be remembered as the man who turned the cracks in the union into fissures and the man who helped bring about an unnecessary recession.

As regards Baker, Fox, Mogg, etc I think they've both outlived their usefulness and become less relevant because of Covid. Brexit has largely faded from debate in the face of the pandemic and seemed to have done pre-pandemic.

I told ya

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This'd be my take as well. Businesses, trade unions, industry groups and so on have been on about this and will have been lobbying about this for a long time. Whitehall will have made sure the government knows what happens in a no deal scenario.

The British have consistently folded when they've had no hand to play come crunch time. Of course, that's no guarantee but it's some indicator.

As regards Johnson, I think he's a Brexiter but an apathetic one. If you read both of his referendum day op-eds the Brexity one is very optimistic while the Remain one is quite grumbling and resigned in tone. He's ultimately two things - lazy and ruthless. I think he was happy to exploit the referendum to build himself a base to catapult himself into No. 10 expecting a remain win. For some reason, years on he's opted for the poisoned chalice and stands to be remembered as the man who turned the cracks in the union into fissures and the man who helped bring about an unnecessary recession.

As regards Baker, Fox, Mogg, etc I think they've both outlived their usefulness and become less relevant because of Covid. Brexit has largely faded from debate in the face of the pandemic and seemed to have done pre-pandemic.

Yes, I agree with your point on C19. I am of the view that if the infection and death rates were to increase over the next two moths then the UK would be in a very bad position coupled with no deal.

I have a sister in London. She says people don't talk about Brexit, too divisive. The two together would be a bit of a perfect storm.

And it goes without saying that we (ROI) would really be in a bad position. The only positive might be that given our small size within the EU, the EU may give us a dig out. Our population is like a large sized EU city. Might be clutching at straws here.

Will be interesting no doubt.

Pablo Escobar

10000maniacs wrote: »

It looks like Liam Fox has been rejected as WTO chief. That must have been a bitter blow to Johnson for his "No deal" Brexit strategy. Probably why he is throwing the EU some concessions now.

They're deluded, but I don't think they're as delusional as to think Fox had a chance of getting that job.

View

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If its No Deal now, talks on a deal of some sort will resume next year after chaos in the UK brings them back to the table. Trade talks are never really over, they just move on to another round.

Talks will only resume next year IF the two parties agree to them. If either side aren’t willing to talk, they won’t.

Brexiters are counting on talks resuming next year if there is no deal. That’s precisely why the EU should insist on a “decontamination” period prior to entering into any future talks with the U.K. Entering into additional talks just rewards the whole brinkmanship mentality that the Brexiters have engaged in over the last few years.

johnnyskeleton

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

They're deluded, but I don't think they're as delusional as to think Fox had a chance of getting that job.

It was a bit of a Brexiteer motif a few weeks ago:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12717040/eu-chiefs-block-liam-fox-bid-wto/

The Sun arguing that the EU snubbed him by trying to block his application, but the fact that they failed to "nobble him" shows that "Britain can get along without its old partners" and they can command a lot of global support due to their huge reputation for international free trade.

They also seem to suggest that the EU countries should have voted for him because he is the only European candidate (apparently in the Sun's worldview, Moldova is not in Europe), sort of like the way countries tend to vote in the Eurovision Song Contest.

However, it seems that in reality the EU countries simply preferred other candidates. There are more qualified candidates like Kenya's Amina Mohamed, who has actual experience of organising WTO and other international conferences/events. It may well have also been a factor in the EU countries' thinking that a woman from a developing nation would be a bonus!

johnnyskeleton

I told ya wrote: »

My own view is that Borris will fold at the end, it will be dressed up/claimed as a victory. A week or two of disruption at the ports and airports will concentrate a lot of minds.

I hope so. If the options are no deal, a bad deal (from the EU's point of view) or a good deal (from the EU's point of view) but the British get to go around saying that they are the ones who got a great deal, the third option is very much the preference. The true cost of a Brexit deal may not fish, level playing field or Northern Ireland, but the EU swallowing their pride and letting the UK proclaim themselves the winners. I think we can pay that price if everything else is good in the deal.

I don't think that he is a Brexiteer at heart. Brexit was just a vehicle to further his ambition to be PM. Remain would win the referendum and he could say to the euro sceptics that he was one of them, I've done my best, leave it for a few years, etc. But the plan backfired. Also, it has been reported that just prior to declaring his position he wrote two articles, remain and leave. So he was trying to figure out which side would further his ambition.

A part of the problem is that even pro-remain people in the UK are at best luke warm, and those that have been marching around draped in the CoE flag chanting "stop Brexit" were not particularly passionate about it before the referendum, and its possible that they are not so much pro-EU as much as they are against the ERG/UKIP types.

By contrast, even though there is no real reason for it, the EU has become the scapegoat for all problems in the UK. Boris Johnson not only tapped into this, but he arguably helped create it with his preposterous articles about EU regulations etc. If he isn't someone who genuinely believes in Brexit or genuinely hates the EU, he is certainly happy enough to blame them for all ills.

Maybe I'm not reading the right news channels, blogs, etc. but I get the impression that a lot of the high profile Brexit MPs, supporters, people who were vocal, are not so prominent now. Eg can't remember the last time I saw/heard JRM, Marc Francois, Liam Fox and others telling the world how great it was all going to be. Maybe I'm missing something here.

Part of it could be that they are quietly toning it down to avoid blame when it goes wrong. Another part could be that people have lost interest. The impression I get from listening to e.g. James O'Brien on LBC is that after the December 2019 election, Leave had well and truly won and there was no point arguing about it.

Then from an Irish/International point of view, it was morbidly facinating to watch these strange creatures coming out of the woodwork over the last few years. But we are done with it now and have to focus on reducing the damage of Brexit

Peregrinus

View wrote: »

Talks will only resume next year IF the two parties agree to them. If either side aren’t willing to talk, they won’t.

Brexiters are counting on talks resuming next year if there is no deal. That’s precisely why the EU should insist on a “decontamination” period prior to entering into any future talks with the U.K. Entering into additional talks just rewards the whole brinkmanship mentality that the Brexiters have engaged in over the last few years.

This won't happen, because:

(a) The EU is always keen to talk, and is especially keen to talk to its near neighbours. It's what they do. And . .

(b) No-deal Brexit will be incredibly painful for some EU members (including Ireland). The EU will have no desire to extend this unnecessarily.

I think if there's no FTA by the end of transition the EU position will be, basically, "Well, that's most unfortunate, but we should carry on talking with the new aim of arriving at an FTA as soon as is practicable after the end of transition".

Peregrinus

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

They're deluded, but I don't think they're as delusional as to think Fox had a chance of getting that job.

I agree. I suspect the thinking behind backing Fox's candidacy want not a belief that he might succeed, so much as a desire to present the UK as a country committed to international trade and keen to play a role in developing it. (In much the way that a political party may nominate a candidate in an election that it has no hope of winning - it still wants to be seen to be taking part.)

Peregrinus

The EU is very used to letting a third country spin a concession it has made as a victory it has won. The UK certainly wouldn't be the first to do this, nor the last. In nearly all its negotiations the EU is the larger, and strategically the more powerful, party, and when you're in that position techniques for allowing the other party to save face are useful and important. So this would be business as usual, from the EU's point of view.

listermint

I mean if you are UK citizen, pure average there are quite literally no upsides to you as an individual. Zero , NADA.
Less travel rights, more red tape even for a basic trip away, less money physically in your pocket, and more expense on daily items.


Why would anyone be even remotely and I mean an inkling of being pro Brexit given its an attack on their own household.

Dexpat

listermint wrote: »

I mean if you are UK citizen, pure average there are quite literally no upsides to you as an individual. Zero , NADA.
Less travel rights, more red tape even for a basic trip away, less money physically in your pocket, and more expense on daily items.


Why would anyone be even remotely and I mean an inkling of being pro Brexit given its an attack on their own household.

True, but for most middle England brexiteers it was never about all of that. It's just a 'taking back control' thing, and a sense of English nationalism that's driving it.

I think that not recognising this in the remain campaign and concentrating solely on economic issues was why it was lost. It could have been a loosing battle anyway gven that there were 40 years of rabid anti EU journalism coming from the British press, Johnson included.

A lot of people will centainly get a shock if a no deal or limited deal comes to pass though.

ancapailldorcha

Below standard post and response deleted.

johnnyskeleton

Dexpat wrote: »

True, but for most middle England brexiteers it was never about all of that. It's just a 'taking back control' thing, and a sense of English nationalism that's driving it.

I think that not recognising this in the remain campaign and concentrating solely on economic issues was why it was lost. It could have been a loosing battle anyway gven that there were 40 years of rabid anti EU journalism coming from the British press, Johnson included.

A lot of people will centainly get a shock if a no deal or limited deal comes to pass though.

Agreed. Espcially since in a different world English nationalists could rightly champion how important they were to the EU, the leading role they played in shaping the markets and how benevolent they were as a world leader to be paying development funds to less well off Eastern European countries.

That could well have been the expression of English/British nationalism on the remain side. But sadly, I dont think they were ever very enthusiastic about those things