Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The only potential candidates at present are Italy (possible Lega-FdI coalition) and Netherlands (Wilders appears to have seen off his Eurosceptic rival), but in both instances, the sheer complexity of leaving the eurozone would make Brexit look like child's play.

Since June 2016, in Holland, Remain has jumped from 45% to 75% today. Italy still has a majority in favour of Remain though that has weakened due to the perceived lack of support from the EU during the pandemic. However, as you say, the reality of leaving would make Italy think again should the question arise.

CelticRambler

Tell me how wrote: »

We're already 4 years post Brexit vote.

Those Costa del pensioners are becoming fewer and fewer and replacing them are non-studying abroad, non-freedom of movement young adults.

There will always be an imperialistic/nationalistic grouping but in surely in the 21st century that mindset is becoming less and less.

You would think that, wouldn't you, but this decade has shown that imperialist nationalism is all the rage on both sides of the Atlantic, spurred on by social media bubbles and those who take malign pleasure in feeding them.

The old Tory pensioners in Spain are only one sub-set of the True-Believing Brexiters. Remember that flower seller on C4 a few years ago? Quite happy to see his business destroyed in the name of regaining sovereignty that was never lost. Ditto the 40-something Brexiters lauding Britain's place in the global economic league tables without even the least acknowledgement that all they'd ever known in their lifetimes was a Britain flourishing as a member of the EEC/EU.

There is no reason to believe that any of these people will easily attribute any future misfortune to the people who led them out of bondage. If there are rocky times ahead, it'll be the fault of Covid, or a run of bad weather, or a resurrected Jeremy Corbyn, or (of course) the Brussels bogey-man constantly interfering with all the great trade deals they'd lined up with other countries.

Capt'n Midnight

I saw this comment that kinda sums it up. The UK wanted Brexit. The UK are getting Brexit. It might not be the Brexit it wanted and that is down to the fact that they at different stages wanted different types of Brexit.


Reminded me of this
“Forty-two," said Deep Thought, with infinite majesty and calm.
It was a long time before anyone spoke.
...
"I checked it very thoroughly," said the computer, "and that quite definitely is the answer. I think the
problem, to be quite honest with you, is that you've never actually known what the question is."
- Douglas Adams - Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy

The Brexit vote had an easy answer.
But we still don't know what the question was.

CelticRambler

It must be Brexit comedy night: from
a Guardian article

“The negotiations are in a difficult phase,” Barnier had told the EU ministers in Luxembourg, according to multiple sources. There was a more “constructive tone”, Barnier said, but “movement on three key issues was still necessary”.
...
As details of Barnier’s sombre assessment emerged, a UK government source claimed Brussels was to blame for the lack of time in the negotiations and called for an urgent injection of “creativity”.

“The EU have been using the old playbook in which they thought running down the clock would work against the UK,” the source said.

“They have assumed that the UK would be more willing to compromise the longer the process ran, but in fact all these tactics have achieved is to get us to the middle of October with lots of work that could have been done left undone.

I thought those cunning planners had already anticipated the EU's dastardly scheming, and were just waiting for them to start blinking at the eleventh hour (or last minute)?

The EU really are such rotters to waste all that time, though (now where did we put that application for listed third country status...?)

Capt'n Midnight

CelticRambler wrote: »

I thought those cunning planners had already anticipated the EU's dastardly scheming, and were just waiting for them to start blinking at the eleventh hour (or last minute)?

Good thing the Magic Money Tree is still going strong.

https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/13/fujitsu_hmrc_contract/

UK tax collector HMRC has awarded Fujitsu a £168.8m contract without competition to ensure critical applications keep running as projects to replace them are delayed and Brexit pressures mount.

Four ferry firms have landed government contracts worth a total of £77.6m to provide post-Brexit freight capacity.

By the end of 2020/21 the government is expecting to have spent up to £8.1bn[1] on preparing for Brexit and the end of the transition period.

These costs will be in addition to the financial settlement – or the so-called ‘divorce bill’ – which the UK agreed (through the Withdrawal Agreement) to pay the EU. The Treasury’s latest estimate[7] of this cost is around £30.2bn.

And then there's the costs to industry for forms and tariffs and whatnot and the costs to the public.

VinLieger

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

More project fear, why cant 13% of UK workforce "just get on with it"

https://www.cityam.com/uks-225bn-professional-services-industry-risks-catastrophic-hit-from-brexit/



But hey the fishing sector which is like 0.01% of UK economy is king

Shocking that once again the tories have completely forgotten their economy is massively service driven....

Sam Russell

Former Tory leader says ‘late, thin’ EU-UK trade deal ‘best prospect’ now

A “late, thin” trade deal between the European Union and United Kingdom might be the best prospect now from trade negotiations, former UK Tory leader William Hague has said.

The British Conservative politician, now Lord Hague of Richmond, said that the EU was trying to have its cake and eat it when it comes to a deal on fishing with the United Kingdom.

Speaking on a webinar hosted in Dublin, the former British foreign secretary said that the EU needed to be “a bit more realistic” on the “vexed” issue of fishing if a post-Brexit trade deal is to be reached with the UK before the end of the transition period on December 31st.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/former-tory-leader-says-late-thin-eu-uk-trade-deal-best-prospect-now-1.4379570

Well it looks like someone is about to blink. In another article in the IT, Varadkar is saying something similar.

However ...

EU states intensify ‘no-deal’ Brexit preparations
No deal ‘very likely’, French foreign minister says, as fishing and competition unresolved
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/eu-states-intensify-no-deal-brexit-preparations-1.4380131

Well, we move towards then end game.

ancapailldorcha

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

More project fear, why cant 13% of UK workforce "just get on with it"

https://www.cityam.com/uks-225bn-professional-services-industry-risks-catastrophic-hit-from-brexit/



But hey the fishing sector which is like 0.01% of UK economy is king

I've been prepping to apply for law roles here but haven't had any luck with the applications I've sent off. Frankly, I'm just looking for this to get resolved one way or the other so I can decide if I want to continue living here.

It's tediously depressing and normal that the Brexiters would rather just deny reality than accept the problems their victory will cause for millions of people in this country.

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

Shocking that once again the tories have completely forgotten their economy is massively service driven....

Which is very surprising (not really as politicians are so detached) when you consider that it was Thatcher, a conservative who oversaw the "transition" from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy in the 1980s.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

Which is very surprising (not really as politicians are so detached) when you consider that it was Thatcher, a conservative who oversaw the "transition" from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy in the 1980s.

Thatcher oversaw the destruction of the coal industry, steel industry, and the car industry. So what was left only service - particularly the City of London casino. She also sold off all the council houses and stopped building replacement ones creating a housing shortage the meant property prices would begin climbing relentlessly.

She also championed the creation of the single market.

View

VinLieger wrote: »

Shocking that once again the tories have completely forgotten their economy is massively service driven....

MPs get their income from the taxpayers. As such they are largely insulated from the economy, as it going up or down doesn’t effect them directly.

The “currency” that MPs have to worry about is votes and for the last few years in the U.K. pandering to anti-EU prejudice has paid massive electoral dividends.

That’s why all the major parties are pro-Brexit and why even the LDs have now gone all “Sir Humphrey Appleby” on re-joining. Remember, in the last four years, neither of the two major parties in the U.K. have supported the idea of even a customs union with the EU, such as the partial one Turkey has, much less either a Swiss style arrangement or a full EFTA/EEA arrangement that the other EFTA countries have. The likelihood of any of those three options happening in the foreseeable future are probably about as likely as the prospects of U.K. adopting the Euro or joining Schengen in the short/medium term were prior to the referendum.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Which is very surprising (not really as politicians are so detached) when you consider that it was Thatcher, a conservative who oversaw the "transition" from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy in the 1980s.

They haven't forgotten it, but the fishing issue is the only one that the UK can rightly claim to hold 'all the cards'. No Deal is a significant negative for countries such as France in terms of fishing.

So rather than deal with the complex and technical discussion about service industries and quotas etc, it is much easier, from a PR POV, to fight for fish.

It is probably the one area that Brexit can be sold as a success, and as such it is important that it can be sold as such.

Brexit was never about the economy, it was about breaking free, sovereignty, fish. And so it makes perfect sense that the government would, when faced with the reality of what Brexit actually is, a No deal disaster or a thin FTA position far worse then when they started, that they would focus and continue to focus on an area they can be seen to win.

Joe_ Public

View wrote: »

MPs get their income from the taxpayers. As such they are largely insulated from the economy, as it going up or down doesn’t effect them directly.

The “currency” that MPs have to worry about is votes and for the last few years in the U.K. pandering to anti-EU prejudice has paid massive electoral dividends.

That’s why all the major parties are pro-Brexit and why even the LDs have now gone all “Sir Humphrey Appleby” on re-joining. Remember, in the last four years, neither of the two major parties in the U.K. have supported the idea of even a customs union with the EU, such as the partial one Turkey has, much less either a Swiss style arrangement or a full EFTA/EEA arrangement that the other EFTA countries have. The likelihood of any of those three options happening in the foreseeable future are probably about as likely as the prospects of U.K. adopting the Euro or joining Schengen in the short/medium term were prior to the referendum.

If you just go back to the indicative votes last year, labour actually backed Ken Clarke's motion for a CU. It lost by 3 votes. Had a few lib dems or SNP not voted against or abstained on it, who knows if the whole thing might have panned out differently.

ancapailldorcha

A customs union of some kind was Labour policy for the 2017 election as I recall. It was the sort of frivolous compromise that pleases nobody but it was there.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please do not just paste links with snappy comments here. A post has been removed.

Patser

Looks like Johnson is going to miss another deadline in the sand. Tony Connelly reporting negotiations to continue for next 2 weeks despite Johnson's assertion that he would walk from negotiations after October 15th.

I expect all those Rabid Pro-Brexit twitter accounts demanding he do it, and to stand strong will go into over-drive later.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1014/1171487-brexit/

Edit:

Telegraph reporting he'll now wait til Friday after the EU Council summit meets on Thursday to see lay of the land, even though brexit way down summit's agenda

BlitzKrieg

Some sneaky terms being used here (such as opportunities) but it does appear that even on such a small industry that was such a forefront of the benefits of brexit there's going to be a lot of caveats.

Put simply the fishing industry may only see it retain its current standards, even if the EU folded on access to british fishing waters as the EU could in return massively reduce the UK's access to a whopping 25% of it's (potential) volume in other waters:

Mr O’Donoghue said: “When you leave a club, you relinquish the privileges that were afforded to you when you were a member. It’s a simple as that. It is crystal clear, the 26% increase in fishing opportunities which was granted by the EU to the UK should end with UK membership.

“With Britain now playing hardball on fisheries and fighting to doubling its catch, the EU negotiators must clearly spell out that the starting point in any fisheries negotiations has to exclude any additional catches it obtained, as part of the EU. On top of this, the UK was also in receipt of another inducement in the shape of ‘Hague Preferences’ which amounts to an additional increase in volume in certain stocks.

“All four Irish producer organisations will be making that point to the Taoiseach, the Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine tomorrow (Monday) when we meet to discuss the potential impact of Brexit on our industry,” concluded Mr O’Donoghue.

https://kfonews.weebly.com/latest-news/britain-cant-have-its-cake-and-eat-it

View

Joe_ Public wrote: »

If you just go back to the indicative votes last year, labour actually backed Ken Clarke's motion for a CU. It lost by 3 votes. Had a few lib dems or SNP not voted against or abstained on it, who knows if the whole thing might have panned out differently.

Actually the vote was just as much defeated by the supposed Labour “rebels” - who clearly had the unofficial blessing of the party leadership as no action was ever taken against them - as by the other parties. And both of the other parties were completely sick of Labour undermining their efforts to defeat Brexit by refusing to back their motion by the time those indicative votes came around.

View

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A customs union of some kind was Labour policy for the 2017 election as I recall. It was the sort of frivolous compromise that pleases nobody but it was there.

Having checked the news from the time, there is no mention of Labour supporting a customs union with the EU at the time.

Rather there is the same sort of delusional thinking as characterised the Brexit campaign, where “of course” the U.K. would retain full and complete access/membership to various EU agencies while not being a member of the EU or being willing to accept any of the obligations that go with that.

View

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Some sneaky terms being used here (such as opportunities) but it does appear that even on such a small industry that was such a forefront of the benefits of brexit there's going to be a lot of caveats.

Put simply the fishing industry may only see it retain its current standards, even if the EU folded on access to british fishing waters as the EU could in return massively reduce the UK's access to a whopping 25% of it's (potential) volume in other waters:



https://kfonews.weebly.com/latest-news/britain-cant-have-its-cake-and-eat-it

Since the U.K. wants to turn back the clock several decades, the EU countries should point out that the fisheries/economic area of a country back then ran to 50 nautical miles from the coast, not today’s 200 nm. Any fish in the “outer 150nm” are therefore in international waters, not U.K. ones, and the EU countries can fish in them as they please.

Joe_ Public

View wrote: »

Actually the vote was just as much defeated by the supposed Labour “rebels” - who clearly had the unofficial blessing of the party leadership as no action was ever taken against them - as by the other parties. And both of the other parties were completely sick of Labour undermining their efforts to defeat Brexit by refusing to back their motion by the time those indicative votes came around.

I don't believe those votes were whipped so not really sure on what basis action could be taken against rebel mps. I mean, i don't know any situation where a small rump of mps ever get to dictate party policy. Labours brexit position was never explicitly stated but a "close and collaborative" relationship with the EU was consistently spelled out from the very beginning and i think it is quite safe to suggest that implies a CU of some fashion at a minimum.

Patser

Reality is hitting home like a brick wall in UK this week.

EU have completely ignored Johnson's dramatics about 15th deadline, do he caved.

Polls out showing bigger and bigger swing towards Scottish Independence, and at almost 80% amongst younger voters, so issue will grow over time.

Kent becoming a laughing stock due to a report on the 1000s of portaloos being sent there for truck drivers.

And now:

https://twitter.com/nigel_driffield/status/1316351533756362756


So the future of British car making is right up in the air, as the new tech electric cars face big increases on their export prices.

After all their bullish, arrogant behaviour it's delightful to watch Boris Johnson being swamped- really hard to feel sympathy for a lad that last year was sending 2 letters regarding extending article 50 - an unsigned request for extension, and a 2nd theatric 'They made me do it'. That's almost exactly a year ago.

listermint

As they say. ... The tide is coming in and that brings the water.

Shelga

So what now is the final date to agree a deal? End of this month? And after that we will know for sure whether no-deal is the outcome?

Nody

Can someone please square this circle for me.

There are currently 8,000 firms with permission to drive in the EU – boasting 39,000 trucks – but as few as 2,200 could be available after 1 January.

Hence only 2.200 UK trucks can actually go to the continent at any time due to license to drive there and UK only has 2.200 licenses.

Rachael Maclean, the transport minister, revealed the plan – amid predictions of queues of up to 7,000 trucks unable to reach the Continent.

So by definition we'd expect at least 6.000 or more of those to not be UK trucks because they are already on the continent. However we also know that 80% of all trucks leave UK empty end hence the need for paperwork is minimal (EU truck, EU driving license etc.). So why would all these empty EU driven EU trucks sit around in a queue? They can be fast forwarded out of the UK to ensure they can get more imports of food, medicine etc. and minimize the need of a long queue or parking lot (trucks with UK goods is a whole different issue).

Professor Moriarty

View wrote: »

Having checked the news from the time, there is no mention of Labour supporting a customs union with the EU at the time.

Rather there is the same sort of delusional thinking as characterised the Brexit campaign, where “of course” the U.K. would retain full and complete access/membership to various EU agencies while not being a member of the EU or being willing to accept any of the obligations that go with that.

Labour's 2019 manifesto promised to:

• Renegotiate a new Brexit deal within three months.
• Include a UK-EU customs union and close EU single market alignment.
• Give EU nationals living and working in the UK the automatic right to stay.
• The deal would then be put to a legally-binding referendum within six months.
• The other option in the referendum would be to remain in the EU.

Sam Russell

Nody wrote: »

Can someone please square this circle for me.

Hence only 2.200 UK trucks can actually go to the continent at any time due to license to drive there and UK only has 2.200 licenses.
So by definition we'd expect at least 6.000 or more of those to not be UK trucks because they are already on the continent. However we also know that 80% of all trucks leave UK empty end hence the need for paperwork is minimal (EU truck, EU driving license etc.). So why would all these empty EU driven EU trucks sit around in a queue? They can be fast forwarded out of the UK to ensure they can get more imports of food, medicine etc. and minimize the need of a long queue or parking lot (trucks with UK goods is a whole different issue).

The typical HGV consists of a tractor and a trailer, both carry licences. From the figures you quote, 39,000 trucks and 8,000 firms suggests an average of 5 trucks per firm. It is likely that the majority of firms are owner/driver traction only firms. They should already have traded their UK HGV licence for an EU one so they can provide the service from the EU.

I suspect that the majority of transport (after Jan 2021) over the channel will be unaccompanied for this reason. Jack drives to Dover, Jacque drives from Calais.

Debub

Possibility that UK-EU flights could be grounded on 1st Jan on a NoDeal scenario being admitted to now

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/lifestyle/travel/brexit-grant-shapps-admits-uk-eu-flights-could-be-grounded-in-the-event-of-no-deal/ar-BB1a12ES?li=BBr5KbJ&ocid=mailsignout

ancapailldorcha

Patser wrote: »

Reality is hitting home like a brick wall in UK this week.

EU have completely ignored Johnson's dramatics about 15th deadline, do he caved.

Polls out showing bigger and bigger swing towards Scottish Independence, and at almost 80% amongst younger voters, so issue will grow over time.

Kent becoming a laughing stock due to a report on the 1000s of portaloos being sent there for truck drivers.

And now:

https://twitter.com/nigel_driffield/status/1316351533756362756


So the future of British car making is right up in the air, as the new tech electric cars face big increases on their export prices.

After all their bullish, arrogant behaviour it's delightful to watch Boris Johnson being swamped- really hard to feel sympathy for a lad that last year was sending 2 letters regarding extending article 50 - Unsigned request for extension, 2nd theatric 'They made me do 1" one. That's almost exactly a year ago.

Did anyone note the use of the word "plea"? Interesting choice of phrase for the BBC. If it signifies a miniscule shift towards the realisation that the UK is effectively a supplicant then so much the better though obviously too late.

Shelga wrote: »

So what now is the final date to agree a deal? End of this month? And after that we will know for sure whether no-deal is the outcome?

The one that's set in stone is midnight on the 31 December. However, time must also be allocated for each Parliament and regional assembly in the EU to ratify the agreement. 31 October is probably a harder date but not immovable.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

They haven't forgotten it, but the fishing issue is the only one that the UK can rightly claim to hold 'all the cards'. No Deal is a significant negative for countries such as France in terms of fishing.

So rather than deal with the complex and technical discussion about service industries and quotas etc, it is much easier, from a PR POV, to fight for fish.

It is probably the one area that Brexit can be sold as a success, and as such it is important that it can be sold as such.

Brexit was never about the economy, it was about breaking free, sovereignty, fish. And so it makes perfect sense that the government would, when faced with the reality of what Brexit actually is, a No deal disaster or a thin FTA position far worse then when they started, that they would focus and continue to focus on an area they can be seen to win.

The first two are vague and meaningless and the third one is irrelevant. Madness.