Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

View

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Labour's 2019 manifesto promised to:

• Renegotiate a new Brexit deal within three months.
• Include a UK-EU customs union and close EU single market alignment.
• Give EU nationals living and working in the UK the automatic right to stay.
• The deal would then be put to a legally-binding referendum within six months.
• The other option in the referendum would be to remain in the EU.

In my comment I was referring to the 2017 manifesto, not the 2019 one.

And the 2019 ones says:

It will include:

* A permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union, which is vital to protect our manufacturing industry and allows the UK to benefit from joint UK-EU trade deals, and is backed by businesses and trade unions.
* Close alignment with the Single Market – ensuring we have a strong future economic relationship with the EU that can support UK businesses.

In other words, contrary to your claim, there was no commitment to a Customs Union with the EU. Rather the commitment was to an All U.K. customs union - ie precisely the thing that Johnson has just done in the Internal Market Bill and which has upset lots of people.

And claims about “close alignment” don’t mean anything if you can’t clearly spell out what it is exactly that you want AND that can be realistically achieved as the EU might agree to it. Failing to do that just means that Labour’s policy was just a variation of the Brexiters’ one in the 2016 referendum where Brexit meant everything and anything from a Norway style EFTA/EEA arrangement right thorough the spectrum to No deal (and no deal on anything ever at any time in the future) depending on who they wanted to fool at the time.

https://labour.org.uk/manifesto-2019/the-final-say-on-brexit/

Professor Moriarty

View wrote: »

In my comment I was referring to the 2017 manifesto, not the 2019 one.

And the 2019 ones says:



In other words, contrary to your claim, there was no commitment to a Customs Union with the EU. Rather the commitment was to an All U.K. customs union - ie precisely the thing that Johnson has just done in the Internal Market Bill and which has upset lots of people.

And claims about “close alignment” don’t mean anything if you can’t clearly spell out what it is exactly that you want AND that can be realistically achieved as the EU might agree to it. Failing to do that just means that Labour’s policy was just a variation of the Brexiters’ one in the 2016 referendum where Brexit meant everything and anything from a Norway style EFTA/EEA arrangement right thorough the spectrum to No deal (and no deal on anything ever at any time in the future) depending on who they wanted to fool at the time.

https://labour.org.uk/manifesto-2019/the-final-say-on-brexit/

Here's an analysis of precisely what the Labour manifesto says by Chris Morris, the BBC reality check correspondent. It is exactly as I said in my post. He says it contained an EU-UK Customs Union. I believe him.

Comparing this manifesto pledge to the lies spouted by populist Brexiteers in 2016 makes no sense whatsoever.

View

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I don't believe those votes were whipped so not really sure on what basis action could be taken against rebel mps. I mean, i don't know any situation where a small rump of mps ever get to dictate party policy. Labours brexit position was never explicitly stated but a "close and collaborative" relationship with the EU was consistently spelled out from the very beginning and i think it is quite safe to suggest that implies a CU of some fashion at a minimum.

MPs who cross the floor to vote with another party can be expelled from any party. Johnson did so with his rebels after one vote. Corbyn didn’t do so after his rebels had repeatedly voted with the Conservatives. That is a clear blessing from on high.

And you are making a major assumption to presume that a “close and collaborative” relationship equates to a customs union. The EU has a “close and collaborative” relationship with Ukraine in the form of a “Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement” which is basically a “super FTA” and it is not a customs union. And the UK’s Labour Party made no commitment to agreeing a “Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement”, much less any agreement that went any further than that.

View

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Here's an analysis of precisely what the Labour manifesto says by Chris Morris, the BBC reality check correspondent. It is exactly as I said in my post. He says it contained an EU-UK Customs Union. I believe him.

Comparing this manifesto pledge to the lies spouted by populist Brexiteers in 2016 makes no sense whatsoever.

I quoted Labour’s own manifesto. You are basically claiming they lied in their own manifesto since there is no such commitment in their manifesto.

An Ciarraioch

Debub wrote: »

Possibility that UK-EU flights could be grounded on 1st Jan on a NoDeal scenario being admitted to now

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/lifestyle/travel/brexit-grant-shapps-admits-uk-eu-flights-could-be-grounded-in-the-event-of-no-deal/ar-BB1a12ES?li=BBr5KbJ&ocid=mailsignout

In practice, one would imagine that the Commission notices would be extended, but hardly makes for stable arrangements in that particular sector.

Imreoir2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

On BBC one right now they complaining that companies have to do paperwork to import from mainland to NI but not if importing to NI from EU.

Instead of realising that all the paperwork is due to Brexit they moaning about the "Irish Sea border"

"All red tape slows down supply chains and impacts consumers dramatically" they say

I can't facepalm hard enough.

Don't they realise, its not red tape, its red white and blue tape!

Brexit ust keeps on giving... :rolleyes:

Joe_ Public

View wrote: »

MPs who cross the floor to vote with another party can be expelled from any party. Johnson did so with his rebels after one vote. Corbyn didn’t do so after his rebels had repeatedly voted with the Conservatives. That is a clear blessing from on high.

And you are making a major assumption to presume that a “close and collaborative” relationship equates to a customs union. The EU has a “close and collaborative” relationship with Ukraine in the form of a “Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement” which is basically a “super FTA” and it is not a customs union. And the UK’s Labour Party made no commitment to agreeing a “Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement”, much less any agreement that went any further than that.

Reality was none of it was simple. Labour had factions pushing it both ways, not going tougher on rebel mps was in no sense a "clear blessing" or tacit endorsement of any hard brexit position, merely an illustration of the delicate political balance they were, ultimately unsuccessfully, trying to straddle. A soft brexit option, if it could have been realised, would have probably played best for them at that point. I mean, the one formal occasion labour actually got to endorse a CU in parliament, they backed it. That surely outstrips anything written in a manifesto or elsewhere. In my book anyway..

In a sense, we're all making assumptions here, as the only way any of this could be put to the test would be if labour was actually negotiating. I personally would have every faith in the likes of Starmer, McDonnell etc negotiating a reasonable deal that maintained a close relationship, but anyone is entitled to disagree.

Capt'n Midnight

Nody wrote: »

Can someone please square this circle for me.

Hence only 2.200 UK trucks can actually go to the continent at any time due to license to drive there and UK only has 2.200 licenses.
So by definition we'd expect at least 6.000 or more of those to not be UK trucks because they are already on the continent. However we also know that 80% of all trucks leave UK empty end hence the need for paperwork is minimal (EU truck, EU driving license etc.). So why would all these empty EU driven EU trucks sit around in a queue? They can be fast forwarded out of the UK to ensure they can get more imports of food, medicine etc. and minimize the need of a long queue or parking lot (trucks with UK goods is a whole different issue).

There's less than 1,000 annual licences as the rest are split into 30 day ones.

The UK has an allocation of 984 annual and 2,832 short-term (valid for 30 days) ECMT permits for 2019. vs. 10,000 trucks a day through Dover. Numbers don't change much each year - unless the EU hands over "get out of jail" cards as part of any deal.

Rules here - ECMT permits are transferable. But only within the same company for vehicles of the same emission class and only when the vehicle returns to the UK. Delays will really eat into the 30 day ones.

trellheim

I guess Tories must be very thankful for Covid now as theres barely any flights at this time.

theres loads of flights with cargo tho none of that has stopped.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

It doesn't really take a lot of imagination to see the falling dominoes (Scotland, NI, Shetland, Gibraltar ... ) creating the conditions in which the regions more tightly bound to England decide to emphasise their separateness if the Sunlit Uplands only ever materialise for those territories that opt for independence and eventual EU membership. An increasingly nationalist cohort of Welsh MPs could easily become the kingmakers in Westminster.

As I mentioned some time back on this thread: never in my lifetime did I expect to hear reports of English holidaymakers in Wales being told to go back to where they came from by the Welsh police; and yet it's already happened, thanks to Covid-19.

So, as I was saying ... :

Wales to ban visitors from Covid hotspots elsewhere in UK

First minister says he will act this week if UK government still refuses to stop people travelling
...
The political angle to the situation has become charged. Drakeford is at pains to stress that there is nothing anti-English in his stance. But at first minister’s questions on Tuesday, Mark Reckless, the Brexit party leader in the Senedd Cymru, taunted Drakeford – whose government is a firm supporter of the union – by arguing Wales was “sleepwalking towards independence”.

Brexiters should beware of what starts with a Reckless taunt!

An Ciarraioch

Johnson said he will "reflect" on the European Council conclusions before taking the next steps - that will be the end of October, then:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1316470311836176384

Tell me how

It's fair galling to see Kate Hoey being introduced to the House of Lords this week.
And a real thumb in the eye to her constituents with her behaviour over the best few years after the constituency voted to remain with nearly 78%.

https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1315974333299396610

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Johnson said he will "reflect" on the European Council conclusions before taking the next steps - that will be the end of October, then:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1316470311836176384

Ursula von der Leyen has also tweeted. Doesn't sound like much progress has been made or we are anywhere close to a deal.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1316461491839737857

briany

A lot of work ahead... In fact, there are certain issues neither side is showing much willingness to budge on. Unless someone's willing to give ground, or invent novel solutions, no amount of negotiating will help.

Patser

Yep, mood music is very negative after the meeting, even Johnson is disappointed


https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1316463493672062976

Seth Brundle

Patser wrote: »

Yep, mood music is very negative after the meeting, even Johnson is disappointed


https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1316463493672062976

Honestly, what was he expecting?

Patser

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Honestly, what was he expecting?

That when he got personally involved, things would get better.

That's been the headline mantra for the Telegraph most of the year - BORIS TO TAKE CHARGE OF X CRISIS - while forgetting that HE'S ALREADY SUPPOSED TO BE IN CHARGE.


X being whatever was headline crisis that week, track and trace, exam results, lockdown levels or now again Brrxit

VinLieger

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Honestly, what was he expecting?

That him walking in and smacking the table while repeatedly shouting lets get it done would magically fix all the problems he keeps putting in front of himself.

Strazdas

Patser wrote: »

Yep, mood music is very negative after the meeting, even Johnson is disappointed


https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1316463493672062976

EU watchers reckon Barnier is now playing hardball, at the request of most member states he has consulted. It's probably a bit of a shock to the Brexiteers that the EU are not desperate for a deal.

VinLieger

Strazdas wrote: »

EU watchers reckon Barnier is now playing hardball, at the request of most member states he has consulted. It's probably a bit of a shock to the Brexiteers that the EU are not desperate for a deal.

Why would the EU be desperate for a deal though? The refusal to accept the reality that come January the EU wont just hold all the cards as they do now they will own the shop you buy the cards in due to how desperate the UK will be for a deal.

Peregrinus

VinLieger wrote: »

Why would the EU be desperate for a deal though? The refusal to accept the reality that come January the EU wont just hold all the cards as they do now they will own the shop you buy the cards in due to how desperate the UK will be for a deal.

Not necessarily.

Psychology may trump economics. Once you have done something dramatic, painful and irreversible For The Cause, you are heavily emotionally invested in the Cause and in its righteousness and necessity. If you admit that The Cause is bogus, then you have inflicted irreversible drama and pain on yourself and on others for no good reason.

So, a painful no-deal end to transition may cause political and economic turmoil in the UK, but it won't necessarily bring the UK running for a deal, any deal, please! It's just as likely to result in an embittered and entrenched UK which blames the EU for its failure to make a deal. If you have a psychological need to blame the EU, it's not difficult to construct rationalisations for doing so, and this may be easier than blaming yourself. So this is not a promising environment in which to try and conclude a post-transition FTA.

Which bothers the EU because the EU does, in fact, want an FTA, and some member states (ourselves included) will be seriously harmed by not having one.

So, yeah, the EU may well see merit in making a deal now rather that trusting to the hazard of making a deal after a messy no-deal end to transition. Not infinite merit - they won't make any deal now just for sake of making a deal - but they are still keen to make a deal, if there's a worthwhile deal to be made.

But the UK has placed far too much reliance on this factor, IMO. One of the main defects in the UK strategy (if this is the UK strategy) is that it would work better if they were offering the EU a good, deep, wide deal. But the deal the UK is targetting is a very, very thin deal which confers minimal benefits on both sides and still leaves both sides considerably worse off than they are at present. The opportunity cost to the EU of losing a poor deal is not so great as the cost of losing a good deal. The UK's hope of a last-minute EU concession would be a lot more realistic if the deal the UK was offering in return for that concession was a lot closer to the deal the EU would like to have.

Tl;dr: given the thin deal the UK is willing to make, it is seriously overplaying its "we'll walk away" hand.

Patser

Strazdas wrote: »

EU watchers reckon Barnier is now playing hardball, at the request of most member states he has consulted. It's probably a bit of a shock to the Brexiteers that the EU are not desperate for a deal.

What exactly is the leverage the UK think they have? The biggest issue they seem to be throwing at the EU is fishing rights, but that is miniscule in the grand scale of things. Even in the UK it's a small percentage of value, but EU wide it's miniscule - do the UK think countries like Italy or Greece care about the North sea, let alone landlocked Austria, Czech republic etc.

But they've invested so much personal pride, so much stature in this that it is now a molehill they will die to defend. Would you rather keep London's passport as financial centre on Europe, or worry about crab pots in the channel - and they chose crabs......

As someone else said, the UK is now out of Europe, they are not a partner anymore, they are competition. Why would the EU throw them favours over their own members?

CelticRambler

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not necessarily.

Psychology may trump economics. Once you have done something dramatic, painful and irreversible For The Cause, you are heavily emotionally invested in the Cause and in its righteousness and necessity. If you admit that The Cause is bogus, then you have inflicted irreversible drama and pain on yourself and on others for no good reason.

So, a painful no-deal end to transition may cause political and economic turmoil in the UK, but it won't necessarily bring the UK running for a deal, any deal, please! It's just as likely to result in an embittered and entrenched UK which blames the EU for its failure to make a deal. If you have a psychological need to blame the EU, it's not difficult to construct rationalisations for doing so, and this may be easier than blaming yourself.

This psychology holds true for individuals and for small organisations, but it's a stretch to extrapolate it to the UK - or even England - as a whole. As highlighted by the earlier discussion about how Brexity or otherwise is the Labour party in its current incarnation, there are plenty of actors with a vested interest in allowing the ERG-Tory-Brexit-Party diehards paint themselves into a corner so that a more moderate government ("left" or "right") can take the reins.

When the lorry parks in Kent are overflowing, Labour won't be blaming the EU, they'll be blaming Johnson; when container-loads of fish are rotting on the quay, the SNP won't be blaming the EU, they'll be blaming Johnson; when the factories of Wales and the Midlands are closing, the unions won't be blaming the EU, they'll be blaming Johnson.

If the EU's discussions with people and parties outside the Johnson-Cummings bubble lead them to believe that negotiations are likely to be more constructive with a totally new administration, one not so invested psychologically in what they've built, it may well suit the EU to live with a no-deal chaotic Brexit that just happens to hasten the political demise of the current incumbents. At least 60% of the electorate won't really care about Johnson's belief in The Cause if the opposition parties continually point out how their pain is in fact food poisoning arising from his undercooked oven-ready deal.

serfboard

CelticRambler wrote: »

When the lorry parks in Kent are overflowing, Labour won't be blaming the EU, they'll be blaming Johnson; when container-loads of fish are rotting on the quay, the SNP won't be blaming the EU, they'll be blaming Johnson; when the factories of Wales and the Midlands are closing, the unions won't be blaming the EU, they'll be blaming Johnson.

While that may be true, you're forgetting the billionaire-financed hyperdrive that regular media and social media will undertake in a no-deal scenario to paint the EU as the villain.

"Enemies of the People"? If no-deal happens, this will seem mild by comparison.

mrbrianj

For the past 3 years the UK have been screaming "No deal is better than a bad deal" the problem for them is that's exactly what's ringing in EU ears now.

tanko

serfboard wrote: »

While that may be true, you're forgetting the billionaire-financed hyperdrive that regular media and social media will undertake in a no-deal scenario to paint the EU as the villain.

"Enemies of the People"? If no-deal happens, this will seem mild by comparison.

Oh, i'd say the EU are quaking in their boots. I'd say they're terrified by headlines on the front of British rags.
The Brits created this Brexit mess, nobody else and definitely not the EU.
The UK couldn't be in a weaker position in these "negotiations". All the EU has to do is put the deal they want on the table and wait for the UK to finish throwing their toys out of their pram and sign it.
The one good thing about Covid is that it happened in the middle of Brexit, the UK is in no position to throw whatever weight it has left around in Brussels.

Cheensbo

serfboard wrote: »

While that may be true, you're forgetting the billionaire-financed hyperdrive that regular media and social media will undertake in a no-deal scenario to paint the EU as the villain.

"Enemies of the People"? If no-deal happens, this will seem mild by comparison.

Even if the tabloids are successful in painting the EU as a villain, the only people who actually consume British media (as opposed from looking on) are the British.

Noone in the EU is really going to care.

serfboard

tanko wrote: »

Oh, i'd say the EU are quaking in their boots. I'd say they're terrified by headlines on the front of British rags.

Cheensbo wrote: »

Even if the tabloids are successful in painting the EU as a villain, the only people who actually consume British media (as opposed from looking on) are the British.

Noone in the EU is really going to care.

Of course no-one in the EU is going to care. That wasn't my point.

I was responding to a point that said that people in Britain were going to blame the British government, and I was pointing out that the chances of that happening would be greatly diminished by the absolute blitz of anti-EU propaganda for domestic consumption that will follow.

The anti-EU propaganda has delivered Brexit for the Tories. The anti-EU propaganda will continue delivering for them when (if) a no-deal happens.

ancapailldorcha

serfboard wrote: »

Of course no-one in the EU is going to care. That wasn't my point.

I was responding to a point that said that people in Britain were going to blame the British government, and I was pointing out that the chances of that happening would be greatly diminished by the absolute blitz of anti-EU propaganda for domestic consumption that will follow.

The anti-EU propaganda has delivered Brexit for the Tories. The anti-EU propaganda will continue delivering for them when (if) a no-deal happens.

I'm not sure that such an enfilade is in the works though. Remember, there's still no end in sight to this pandemic and various regions of this country have increased their lockdown levels. We have just over two months of the transition period as well.

Anyway, it may be a moot point if printers can't import the raw materials to produce newspapers or too many people can't afford their electric bill.

The Raging Bile Duct

serfboard wrote: »

The anti-EU propaganda has delivered Brexit for the Tories. The anti-EU propaganda will continue delivering for them when (if) a no-deal happens.

There's going to have to be a point where it dawns on British people that they didn't suffer these hardships when the UK was part of the EU. It's hardly like they won't be able to see life going on for mainland Europe mostly the same as it was before the UK left.