Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

druss

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Honestly, what was he expecting?

That Macron, Merkel and Von Der Leyen would be as impressed as he was by the "Australia-style deal" line that Dominick Cummings came up with?

Actually, he seemed to drop it by the time he spoke to VDL.

ancapailldorcha

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

There's going to have to be a point where it dawns on British people that they didn't suffer these hardships when the UK was part of the EU. It's hardly like they won't be able to see life going on for mainland Europe mostly the same as it was before the UK left.

This is the cincher for me. Once the pandemic subsides or alleviates somewhat, the rest of Europe will return to normal or something resembling normal while the UK grapples with the artificial crisis it decided to make for itself. It'll be too late by then but at least the Tories will have had their faces properly rubbed in this stuff for future reference.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is the cincher for me. Once the pandemic subsides or alleviates somewhat, the rest of Europe will return to normal or something resembling normal while the UK grapples with the artificial crisis it decided to make for itself. It'll be too late by then but at least the Tories will have had their faces properly rubbed in this stuff for future reference.

I think you are underestimating the power that the media has, and the grip that the likes of Cummings etc have. This has gone far past the point of people simply believing stories in the papers.

The handling of the COVID crisis has been a national disaster, and yet there is hardly a grumble. Cummings was allowed flagrantly break the regs, nothing. Millions is being given out, without any transparent of competition, to Tory donors and linked companies for hardly anything and almost nothing is being said.

Tories still continue to have a strong mandate in terms of popular support (yes Labour have clawed back, but Tory support is still relatively healthy).

So whilst it may seem that any day now the people are going to wake up and see what really happened, the last four years have shown little evidence that that is likely. It will not be because simply they didn't get a deal, it is because the EU, mainly the French as they are easiest to cast as villains, went against the democratic wishes as the UK and punished them rather than work with them.

serfboard

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

There's going to have to be a point where it dawns on British people that they didn't suffer these hardships when the UK was part of the EU.

It didn't dawn on the British people in 2016, that their country being the most unequal in Northern Europe was the fault of their own government and not the EU. It'll hardly dawn on them when things get worse that it won't be as a result of the EU doing a number on them - since that's how it will be spun.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think you are underestimating the power that the media has, and the grip that the likes of Cummings etc have. This has gone far past the point of people simply believing stories in the papers.

The handling of the COVID crisis has been a national disaster, and yet there is hardly a grumble. Cummings was allowed flagrantly break the regs, nothing. Millions is being given out, without any transparent of competition, to Tory donors and linked companies for hardly anything and almost nothing is being said.

Tories still continue to have a strong mandate in terms of popular support (yes Labour have clawed back, but Tory support is still relatively healthy).

So whilst it may seem that any day now the people are going to wake up and see what really happened, the last four years have shown little evidence that that is likely. It will not be because simply they didn't get a deal, it is because the EU, mainly the French as they are easiest to cast as villains, went against the democratic wishes as the UK and punished them rather than work with them.

The Cummings affair still blew up in a huge way though. Having an adviser being interrogated in the rose garden was unprecedented. Obviously, he was never going to go but it still blew up.

Then there's the fact that at best, just over 40% of the population vote Tory. Newspapers are in decline and have been for some time now:



https://whatsnewinpublishing.com/how-people-in-the-uk-are-accessing-news-6-key-findings/#:~:text=1%3A%20Circulation%20of%20national%20newspaper,%2C%20a%20decline%20of%2052.5%25.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0027/157914/uk-news-consumption-2019-report.pdf

They're still influential but very much on the wane.

The thing with Covid is that the UK is still in the single market and customs union so nobody's waking up until that comes to an end as seems possible. It's then and only then that we'll know but Johnson made such a show of getting Brexit done that he now owns it. They can blame the EU all they want but they'll have much bigger problems at that point.

serfboard

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Newspapers are in decline and have been for some time now:
...
They're still influential but very much on the wane.

Doesn't matter. Cummings has that covered with the newspapers social media replacements.

And not forgetting the billionaires' poodle Andrew Neil, and his new GB News effort. Becuase, you know, there's just not enough right-wing perspectives in the media in the UK ...

Cheensbo

serfboard wrote: »

Doesn't matter. Cummings has that covered with the newspapers social media replacements.

And not forgetting the billionaires' poodle Andrew Neil, and his new GB News effort. Becuase, you know, there's just not enough right-wing perspectives in the media in the UK ...

That's internal stuff though - has no bearing on Brexit anywhere other than for those in the UK looking out.

It's like us being overly concerned with how the Turks/Russians/Chinese see the EU, we will keep an eye and put protections in place if required - but we won't be changing policies based on how we're viewed by the locals of a 3rd country.


Either way, I don't think the EU has much to worry about - The British tabloids will have plenty to focus on with Covid, IndyRef2 and the inevitable coming down the line in the 6 counties.

ambro25

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think you are underestimating the power that the media has, and the grip that the likes of Cummings etc have. This has gone far past the point of people simply believing stories in the papers.

The handling of the COVID crisis has been a national disaster, and yet there is hardly a grumble. Cummings was allowed flagrantly break the regs, nothing. Millions is being given out, without any transparent of competition, to Tory donors and linked companies for hardly anything and almost nothing is being said.

Tories still continue to have a strong mandate in terms of popular support (yes Labour have clawed back, but Tory support is still relatively healthy).

So whilst it may seem that any day now the people are going to wake up and see what really happened, the last four years have shown little evidence that that is likely. It will not be because simply they didn't get a deal, it is because the EU, mainly the French as they are easiest to cast as villains, went against the democratic wishes as the UK and punished them rather than work with them.

That was exactly my take on things, in here yesterday or the day before, having previously long pinned my hopes on an early collective conscience-taking across the UK, about this point of divergence in living standards alluded to by The Raging Duct Bile .

I said then, that I saw the average Brit as being completely catatonic, and having just read Russ' latest #WeekInTory of today, I stand by that.

To the point of wondering, whether the £bns being spaffed by Johnson's goverment on mates' day-old off-the-shelf companies in the name of Covid-mitigating procurement, is not part of a wider scheme to buffer up that mountain of (ex-)taxpayers' moolah ready for buying bulks of UK plc in the firesale being readied to start on 1/1/21.

I know, I know, here be serious political debate, there's a dedicated forum for conspiracy theories...but Chr1st on a bike, the state of the UK by now!

An Ciarraioch

Any of us could have written the European Council conclusions - much the same as has been the case all year:

https://twitter.com/BarendLeyts/status/1316757117223735298

Patser

Yep, reality just hit the UK another slap. Their now desperately trying to pass the blame to the EU, but it's all closing in on them



https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1316785715943014400

Capt'n Midnight

Holyhead is nearly ready for Brexit Apart from parking, IT systems and what tasks the hauliers will need to do.

About 600 lorries and trailers a day leave Holyhead port, the UK's second-biggest "roll-on roll-off" port.

There are currently no arrangements in place for a lorry park on Anglesey to hold any outbound lorries unable to board a ferry.

Inbound lorries will not face any checks by UK authorities until July 2021.

The RHA has issued a suggested checklist for traders, and lorry and van operators. It contains 31 tasks that need to be completed - 16 of which cannot be tackled until arrangements for 1 January become clearer.

...
But he expressed concern freight hauliers would not be ready for 1 January and that any pre-boarding IT systems were "not fully developed, they're not fully integrated into ferry company check-in systems, and they've not been tested".

And yesterday Brexit customs site plan for Anglesey Show car park 'dropped'

johnnyskeleton

If the only outstanding issue was fishing, there is an easy solution:

So long as the UK agree to maintain the Common Fisheries policy, they get zero tarrriffs access to the EU for fish. If they don't, then full EU tarriffs for fish will apply (with consequent delays on other trade as greater checks will have to take place).

So the UK will have the power to decouple from the EU on fishing at any time, but if they do it will be catastrophic for the UK fishing industry. They will have taken back control of fishing, but also struck a great deal on fishing which allows them unfettered access to their largest market for fish. They can sell that as a win-win if they like.

An Ciarraioch

Patser wrote: »

Yep, reality just hit the UK another slap. Their now desperately trying to pass the blame to the EU, but it's all closing in on them



https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1316785715943014400

Barnier's reply of wanting "intense" talks seems designed to mollify him, but remains to see how Johnson will react.

Widdensushi

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

If the only outstanding issue was fishing, there is an easy solution:

So long as the UK agree to maintain the Common Fisheries policy, they get zero tarrriffs access to the EU for fish. If they don't, then full EU tarriffs for fish will apply (with consequent delays on other trade as greater checks will have to take place).

So the UK will have the power to decouple from the EU on fishing at any time, but if they do it will be catastrophic for the UK fishing industry. They will have taken back control of fishing, but also struck a great deal on fishing which allows them unfettered access to their largest market for fish. They can sell that as a win-win if they like.

Of course they would take billions worth of fish and pay tariff s on exporting it, problem is that every lorry that would go to France would be burned, probably Irish ones as well because they won't bother differentiate

ancapailldorcha

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

If the only outstanding issue was fishing, there is an easy solution:

So long as the UK agree to maintain the Common Fisheries policy, they get zero tarrriffs access to the EU for fish. If they don't, then full EU tarriffs for fish will apply (with consequent delays on other trade as greater checks will have to take place).

So the UK will have the power to decouple from the EU on fishing at any time, but if they do it will be catastrophic for the UK fishing industry. They will have taken back control of fishing, but also struck a great deal on fishing which allows them unfettered access to their largest market for fish. They can sell that as a win-win if they like.

Isn't the problem with fishing, or rather the political problem with fishing the limits placed on catches by the common fisheries policy? Given the disproportionate, dare I say daft amount of attention given to fishing I don't think retaining the CFP in any shape or form is politically feasible sadly.

I'm firmly convinced that on New Year's Day, the UK will either be in some form of EEA status or something very similar with token concessions or will simply crash out. There's not really any time to compromise at this stage.

kowloon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwX-KpnODw4

Not to post a youtube link for the sake of it, but is it really as simple as the British thinking they're still an empire and that the empire was a universal force for good that has brought us here?

Mr.Nice Guy

It looked like Johnson and co. had made their calculations and were ready to walk a month ago. Whether the increase in Covid-19 cases has caused a rethink remains to be seen but I'd be surprised if it has. I expect he'll walk and give a speech about how it's being done 'with a heavy heart'. I can see a narrative along the lines of 'look what you made me do.' I think it was always going to boil down to a blame game, no matter what. There will be a lot of talk about 'rallying behind the flag', and it will be just in time for the annual Remembrance displays.

View

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It looked like Johnson and co. had made their calculations and were ready to walk a month ago. Whether the increase in Covid-19 cases has caused a rethink remains to be seen but I'd be surprised if it has. I expect he'll walk and give a speech about how it's being done 'with a heavy heart'. I can see a narrative along the lines of 'look what you made me do.' I think it was always going to boil down to a blame game, no matter what. There will be a lot of talk about 'rallying behind the flag', and it will be just in time for the annual Remembrance displays.

You are almost certainly crediting them with far more intelligence than they have.

fash

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not necessarily.

Psychology may trump economics. Once you have done something dramatic, painful and irreversible For The Cause, you are heavily emotionally invested in the Cause and in its righteousness and necessity. If you admit that The Cause is bogus, then you have inflicted irreversible drama and pain on yourself and on others for no good reason.

So, a painful no-deal end to transition may cause political and economic turmoil in the UK, but it won't necessarily bring the UK running for a deal, any deal, please! It's just as likely to result in an embittered and entrenched UK which blames the EU for its failure to make a deal. If you have a psychological need to blame the EU, it's not difficult to construct rationalisations for doing so, and this may be easier than blaming yourself. So this is not a promising environment in which to try and conclude a post-transition FTA.

Which bothers the EU because the EU does, in fact, want an FTA, and some member states (ourselves included) will be seriously harmed by not having one.

So, yeah, the EU may well see merit in making a deal now rather that trusting to the hazard of making a deal after a messy no-deal end to transition. Not infinite merit - they won't make any deal now just for sake of making a deal - but they are still keen to make a deal, if there's a worthwhile deal to be made.

But the UK has placed far too much reliance on this factor, IMO. One of the main defects in the UK strategy (if this is the UK strategy) is that it would work better if they were offering the EU a good, deep, wide deal. But the deal the UK is targetting is a very, very thin deal which confers minimal benefits on both sides and still leaves both sides considerably worse off than they are at present. The opportunity cost to the EU of losing a poor deal is not so great as the cost of losing a good deal. The UK's hope of a last-minute EU concession would be a lot more realistic if the deal the UK was offering in return for that concession was a lot closer to the deal the EU would like to have.

Tl;dr: given the thin deal the UK is willing to make, it is seriously overplaying its "we'll walk away" hand.

True enough- however any deal the EU makes will be sticky. It might be better and at a certain point it will be better to no deal, discredit brexit and wait for a more "this was a silly idea" UK government to show up. Only brexiters are emotionally invested in
Brexit - once they are discredited, they are discredited for a long time.

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

This psychology holds true for individuals and for small organisations, but it's a stretch to extrapolate it to the UK - or even England - as a whole. As highlighted by the earlier discussion about how Brexity or otherwise is the Labour party in its current incarnation, there are plenty of actors with a vested interest in allowing the ERG-Tory-Brexit-Party diehards paint themselves into a corner so that a more moderate government ("left" or "right") can take the reins . . .

Fair point. But I don't think we are concerned here either with individuals/small organisations or with England as a whole.

The Tories are fairly well entrenched in office for the next four years no matter what happens between now and then, and Johnson is well-entrenched as Tory leader, and so as PM, provided he retains the support of his base, which is at least a critical mass of the parliamentary party, plus the Tory party rank-and-file membership. The parlaimentary party has been purged of centrists/soft brexiteeers/remainers, and the rank-and-file membership is as wealthy, elderly, white, male, reactionary and Daily-Express reading as it ever was. I think those are the groups whose support Johnson has to retain, and those are the groups who have enthusiastically supported hard Brexit and who will find it psychologically challenging to admit that they were in error to do so, and that they are responsible for inflicting gratuitous harm on their country. So they will eagerly lap up the "it's all the fault of the bullying EU!" line; it helps to shore up their self-esteem.

The upshot of that, God willing, is a Tory party and govrernment increasingly disconnected from public sentiment and public views in the UK and, provided Starmer does not appear to be bat**** insane (and, as of now, he doesn't) Labour should cruise to victory in May 2024.

But not until then. The climb out of the hole into which the UK has dug itself doesn't start till them, and it will be a slow and slippery climb.

fash

serfboard wrote: »

Doesn't matter. Cummings has that covered with the newspapers social media replacements.

And not forgetting the billionaires' poodle Andrew Neil, and his new GB News effort. Becuase, you know, there's just not enough right-wing perspectives in the media in the UK ...

The problem is that it is a small and shrinking group who listen to the pro brexit stuff. Many are caught up in and worried about Covid. It's going to be hard to rouse all that many- certainly very hard to rouse more than the core. Furthermore there are large areas in the North and in Scotland who are dead to the right wing media - what would no deal mean for Scotland and independence?

fash

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It looked like Johnson and co. had made their calculations and were ready to walk a month ago. Whether the increase in Covid-19 cases has caused a rethink remains to be seen but I'd be surprised if it has. I expect he'll walk and give a speech about how it's being done 'with a heavy heart'. I can see a narrative along the lines of 'look what you made me do.' I think it was always going to boil down to a blame game, no matter what. There will be a lot of talk about 'rallying behind the flag', and it will be just in time for the annual Remembrance displays.

If that were the case, I think Johnson would have stick to his timetable of 15 October. Why didn't he do that?

Strazdas

I get the feeling the Brexiteers are a bit shocked the EU are playing hardball and being so dismissive. It looks like they were convinced the EU would be desperate to avoid No Deal and would start offering late concessions. It doesn't seem to be going to plan : the EU saying "Do whatever you want, we're not bothered" was not part of the script.

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

I get the feeling the Brexiteers are a bit shocked the EU are playing hardball and being so dismissive. It looks like they were convinced the EU would be desperate to avoid No Deal and would start offering late concessions. It doesn't seem to be going to plan : the EU saying "Do whatever you want, we're not bothered" was not part of the script.

I don't know why they would be shocked by this. Pretty much none of the predictions that the Brexiters made about the course of Brexit or the positions the EU would adopt has been born out at any point in the process. They have been consistently wrong. So why should they be shocked to find that they are wrong now?

On edit: And if they are shocked, they should have more wit than to own up to it. Nobody in a serious negotiation should be caught off-guard by what the other side do. If they do something you have not anticipated, that is your failure, not theirs.

Peregrinus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Isn't the problem with fishing, or rather the political problem with fishing the limits placed on catches by the common fisheries policy? Given the disproportionate, dare I say daft amount of attention given to fishing I don't think retaining the CFP in any shape or form is politically feasible sadly.

The CFP is absolutely going to be retained. The question at issues is whether, and to what extent, the UK will participate in it and whether, and to what extent, it will apply in UK fishing grounds. And I don't think the fundamental issue is the quotas as such, but rather the allocation of the quotas as between different national fishing fleets.

The French, who up to now have called for a pretty hardline position on this, are reportedly signalling openness to a possible path to compromise; maintain the status quo in La Manche (where the French have 84% of the cod quota, versus the UK's 9%) but change things in other fishing grounds (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, waters off Scotland) and give the UK greater shares, or all of, some quotas provide they give up corresponding (shares of) quotas in non-UK waters.

This could be significant. If horse-trading starts on fishing, I think a deal is likely, if only becaue no-deal on fishing is bad for both sides' fishing fleets, and so both have an interest in making a deal.

Patser

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It looked like Johnson and co. had made their calculations and were ready to walk a month ago. Whether the increase in Covid-19 cases has caused a rethink remains to be seen but I'd be surprised if it has. I expect he'll walk and give a speech about how it's being done 'with a heavy heart'. I can see a narrative along the lines of 'look what you made me do.' I think it was always going to boil down to a blame game, no matter what. There will be a lot of talk about 'rallying behind the flag', and it will be just in time for the annual Remembrance displays.

There is nothing in the Johnson government record to support the idea they made calculations or had a plan. On almost every headline issue Johnson has made over last 18 months, the formula has been identical.

Make a massively optimistic or bombastic announcement to generate big proud headline, never follow up with any detail of a plan and quietly row back as reality hits.

So 'World class track and trace app' which was key to Tory Covid response disappears in abject failure.

'Die in a ditch' than request extension becomes extension request

40 new hospitals - still being promised - has no map of where, when, how much

and now, 'I'll walk on 15th' will also disappear.

It has to. You simply cannot have a complete no deal break. At the very least a very thin agreement along the lines of Airlines can still fly into each others airspace, we'll recognise some other key transport licences so as to not stop vital trade dead, other aspects of how policing, intelligence or defence can remain engaged (or at least have an orderly disentangling). All this will somehow have to be maintained. Whatever about trade relations, tourism, migration etc - all that can be cut if they want but there's too much absolutely vital relationships in the background that simply cannot be cut off like a scissors.



What I'd like to know, if anyone understands this better, is that in the event of a 'no deal', and assuming NI protocol is introduced as planned - what does this mean for NI businesses that are doing work in the Republic. For example, all the building sites I see around Dublin are very frequently littered with yellow reg cars and work vehicles from contractors for the North. What happens there? I understand that the CTA will still stand, and people North and South will still be allowed to work either side, but what about companies? I mean an electrician from NI will be allowed to work for an electrical company in Dundalk, but will the electrical company from Dundalk be licenced to work in Newry (and vice versa) - or will all those companies and subcontractors suddenly have to open new companies on both sides of border, how much red tape will be involved or will (example) building sites suddenly be down loads of builders

listermint

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't know why they would be shocked by this. Pretty much none of the predictions that the Brexiters made about the course of Brexit or the positions the EU would adopt has been born out at any point in the process. They have been consistently wrong. So why should they be shocked to find that they are wrong now?

On edit: And if they are shocked, they should have more wit than to own up to it. Nobody in a serious negotiation should be caught off-guard by what the other side do. If they do something you have not anticipated, that is your failure, not theirs.

These are not smart or cunning people. They are stumbling from one crisis to the next with no adults in the room because they've shunned them all.


They are looking for a saviour. Simple as that. The shock is that there is none.

Patser

listermint wrote: »

These are not smart or cunning people. They are stumbling from one crisis to the next with no adults in the room because they've shunned them all.


They are looking for a saviour. Simple as that. The shock is that there is none.

It's the Donald Trump playbook - Always be campaigning!

Always be making promises and plans, what you will do, what great ideas you have. Also always be pointing at an 'opponent', THEY want the stop this, THEY are against you, I am with you!


And to an extent it works, it keeps the message simple, it allows you to be optimistic, you can play to the crowd.

The issues are:

1) Time - over time people want to see things actually happening
2) THEY - be it Covid, EU or Starmer, after a while whoever your opponent is either doesn't go away or starts to fight back
3) Facts - people just plainly start to see what is happening compared to your vision

Silent Running

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't know why they would be shocked by this. Pretty much none of the predictions that the Brexiters made about the course of Brexit or the positions the EU would adopt has been born out at any point in the process. They have been consistently wrong. So why should they be shocked to find that they are wrong now?

On edit: And if they are shocked, they should have more wit than to own up to it. Nobody in a serious negotiation should be caught off-guard by what the other side do. If they do something you have not anticipated, that is your failure, not theirs.

I can't help but think that your edit would apply to the EU team. But I lay no blame there. After all, how many could have expected the IM bill?

Sometimes your partner in negotiations is just batsh1t crazy.

Peregrinus

Silent Running wrote: »

I can't help but think that your edit would apply to the EU team. But I lay no blame there. After all, how many could have expected the IM bill?

Sometimes your partner in negotiations is just batsh1t crazy.

Fair point. But if you realise that they're batsh!t crazy, then you won't be surprised by anything they do. Disappointed, perhaps. Horrified, even. But not surprised.