Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

As Adam Fleming pointed out on sky, many eu leaders aren't too bothered one way or the other. They're happy to take the focus off brexit one way or another so they can fully concentrate on the pandemic and a few months no deal might actually be useful to give a better sense of what's at stake. The long game suits them well enough.

Patser

Leroy42 wrote: »

Bang on. He never actually says the negotiations are over, he just says the EU needs to change their approach.

So yet another deadline is quietly allowed to pass, yet again the EU calls his bluff.

It's actually pretty much a mirror of what the EU said yesterday, yes we're still talking but it's up to the UK to show movement. Now Johnson is saying, Oh dear those dastardly Europeans aren't budging, but they should or else.

He said he would walk away if nothing decided by 15th, now he's trying to sound like he's following through but actually just posturing.

Talks continue

fash

swampgas wrote: »

This is what I thought was likely to happen, although I did think Johnson would wait a bit longer before coming out with it.

If Johnson was serious about a deal he would have moved to a position more acceptable to the EU by the middle of the year. What we are seeing now appears to be the end game of a charade of mock negotiations, where every time a deal looked remotely likely another spanner was thrown in the works, the most recent being the Internal Markets Bill. Johnson has run the clock down sufficiently that he can now safely declare a No Deal Brexit, and there isn't enough time for anyone to do anything about it.

Additionally, I imagine his financial backers have been given plenty of advance notice of this announcement so they can optimise their bets on the currency markets.

I'm not sure: I was expecting theatrics today as part of a set up for a deal. I currently leaning towards deal (with necessary theatre of Johnson's herculean struggle) / Johnson currently undecided and will flip a coin or see how the wind is blowing at the last moment / wants a deal but falls out due to incompetence.

The reason I'm thinking that is that I'd have expected bigger and more consistent no deal theatrics after the IM bill (and even now) if the intention were a consistent no deal .
Also you'll note that he missed his own deadline of 15 October - that just looks weak.

Edit to add:

J Mysterio

Joe_ Public wrote: »

As Adam Fleming pointed out on sky, many eu leaders aren't too bothered one way or the other. They're happy to take the focus off brexit one way or another so they can fully concentrate on the pandemic and a few months no deal might actually be useful to give a better sense of what's at stake. The long game suits them well enough.

That's the thing! UK want to increase pressure or tension, but nobody cares anymore. Do what you want UK, you know the terms. *shrug*

steddyeddy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's just brazenly deceitful to keep invoking Australia's relationship with no deal to plaster over the fact that it's no deal.

Also it's extremely deceitful to suggest that the UK only wanted a Canada style deal. They wanted London to serve as the clearing house for the Euro and to secure access to financial services. That's already more than the Canada deal.

BlitzKrieg

steddyeddy wrote: »

Also it's extremely deceitful to suggest that the UK only wanted a Canada style deal. They wanted London to serve as the clearing house for the Euro and to secure access to financial services. That's already more than the Canada deal.

If they only wanted a canada style deal then they wouldnt have signed the withdrawel agreement, it's basis was built on something closer then the canada deal.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

Boris Johnson just confirming no deal. This is insanity, surely? Can't believe what I'm hearing.

Nah, if it was going to be No Deal he would have stuck to his deadline of the 15th and ended the talks. This is just hot air to cover the fact that his bluff was called and he folded on the deadline, talks continue.

Eventually, he will accept a level playing field. The EU will toss him a fish. A bare bones FTA will be agreed.

It will not prevent absolute mayhem in the UK on January 1st, nor will it stop the fall in Sterling, the closure of manufacturing, the loss of banking and other services jobs, the flight of capital or the climb in prices.

An Ciarraioch

Joe_ Public wrote: »

As Adam Fleming pointed out on sky, many eu leaders aren't too bothered one way or the other. They're happy to take the focus off brexit one way or another so they can fully concentrate on the pandemic and a few months no deal might actually be useful to give a better sense of what's at stake. The long game suits them well enough.

Indeed - watch the Charles Michel press conference, Brexit is neither raised by him nor European journalists until Sky News ask about Johnson:

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1317074837857136640

Leroy42

Faisal is now saying that No 10 have announced that negotiations are pointless.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1317092343862956035

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Faisal is now saying that No 10 have announced that negotiations are pointless.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1317092343862956035

That's fairly definitive.

swampgas

fash wrote: »

I'm not sure: I was expecting theatrics today as part of a set up for a deal. I currently leaning towards deal (with necessary theatre of Johnson's herculean struggle) / Johnson currently undecided and will flip a coin or see how the wind is blowing at the last moment / wants a deal but falls out due to incompetence.

The reason I'm thinking that is that I'd have expected bigger and more consistent no deal theatrics after the IM bill (and even now) if the intention were a consistent no deal .
Also you'll note that he missed his own deadline of 15 October - that just looks weak.

Edit to add:

You may well be correct. However I think there are two "win" options for Johnson's backers, such as Murdoch for example:

• A no deal brexit that causes disruption between the UK and the EU, damaging the EU right now
• A deal which is bad for the EU which stresses EU cohesion, damaging the EU in the long run

Right now Johnson is saying give me a cherry-picking deal or I walk ... and I can't see the EU at this point offering him a deal that will fundamentally damage the EU. Johnson might be hoping the EU blinks, but it seems to me to be a pretty forlorn hope.

10000maniacs

I just watched Inside The Factory on BBC 2 manufacturing Mr. Kipling's Cherry Bakewells in a factory in Stoke last night.
Probably most workers in the factory voted Brexit (as it is Stoke), and yet the MD of the factory said their main market by far was the EU. WTO tariffs on Cakes are 20%. Who in Europe would possibly buy them now from that Stoke factory?

An Ciarraioch

swampgas wrote: »

You may well be correct. However I think there are two "win" options for Johnson's backers, such as Murdoch for example:

• A no deal brexit that causes disruption between the UK and the EU, damaging the EU right now
• A deal which is bad for the EU which stresses EU cohesion, damaging the EU in the long run

Right now Johnson is saying give me a cherry-picking deal or I walk ... and I can't see the EU at this point offering him a deal that will fundamentally damage the EU. Johnson might be hoping the EU blinks, but it seems to me to be a pretty forlorn hope.

As for Monday, I suspect Barnier treats it as business as usual, and travels to London regardless - either the UK stands him up, or they go to the meeting, so either way he can't lose.

Joe_ Public

10000maniacs wrote: »

I just watched Inside The Factory on BBC 2 manufacturing Mr. Kipling's Cherry Bakewells in a factory in Stoke last night.
Probably most workers in the factory voted Brexit (as it is Stoke), and yet the MD of the factory said their main market by far was the EU. WTO tariffs on Cakes are 20%. Who in Europe would possibly buy them now from that Stoke factory?

Reminds me of a piece i watched on sky last year in a small car parts manufacturer in the midlands where even though the pro-EU manager/part owner said they'd have to shut lines in the event of no deal, the workers standing next to him said he'd support it anyway and most of his colleagues felt the same. Not an uncommon scenario, I hasten to add. There was never any reasoning with it.

An Ciarraioch

Schrödinger's Brexit:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1317138437057687552

Headshot

Hopefully EU say fine, we're done. Lets call their bluff and wait for the inevitable phone from BJ

Hopefully Barnier takes a long deserved break

Mr.Nice Guy

That's that then. We will soon enter the blame game.

Doesn't sound like there's a way back now. Here was Emmanuel Macron earlier:

https://twitter.com/dw_europe/status/1317115916358922240

J Mysterio

Absolutely love that comment from Macron

Detritus70

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Reminds me of a piece i watched on sky last year in a small car parts manufacturer in the midlands where even though the pro-EU manager/part owner said they'd have to shut lines in the event of no deal, the workers standing next to him said he'd support it anyway and most of his colleagues felt the same. Not an uncommon scenario, I hasten to add. There was never any reasoning with it.

As a German I have come to accept that the English (emphasis on English) cannot accept being members of the EU.
It just doesn't work. Never has, never will.
They have done nothing but moan, complain and demand special treatment since the 70's.
In a club that members have build to be something beneficial to everyone, you can't have moochers who will treat it is their ATM, buffet and toilet, whilst complaining loudly that they can't take entire trays of food from the buffet and bring them to the table and then demand a rebate on their bill.
Don't worry though, they'll be back again, grabbing stuff off people's plates, telling them how sh*t this club is and that they should stop paying as well. Until security escorts them out.
And they'll be back at the front door, making a scene, telling everyone how they got done and they're the victim here.
All this does now is draw a weary sigh from those inside.

Strazdas

Detritus70 wrote: »

As a German I have come to accept that the English (emphasis on English) cannot accept being members of the EU.
It just doesn't work. Never has, never will.
They have done nothing but moan, complain and demand special treatment since the 70's.
In a club that members have build to be something beneficial to everyone, you can't have moochers who will treat it is their ATM, buffet and toilet, whilst complaining loudly that they can't take entire trays of food from the buffet and bring them to the table and then demand a rebate on their bill.
Don't worry though, they'll be back again, grabbing stuff off people's plates, telling them how sh*t this club is and that they should stop paying as well. Until security escorts them out.
And they'll be back at the front door, making a scene, telling everyone how they got done and they're the victim here.
All this does now is draw a weary sigh from those inside.

A lot of good points. Their so called 'Euroscepticsm' is really just Europhobia. They (English Brexiteers) generally dislike and distrust 'foreigners' who don't speak English as a first language. That's the real story of Brexit : they don't like foreigners and immigrants and are not too keen on being in a club with them.

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's just brazenly deceitful to keep invoking Australia's relationship with no deal to plaster over the fact that it's no deal.

In fairness they couldn't exactly use Outer Mongolia's relationship with the EU.


When people go on about WTO terms with China or the US you have to remember they are large economies that have more diversity and are bigger than most trading blocs. And like the EU are quite happy to impose apply tariffs.

blindsider

SkyNews
@SkyNews
·
1h
BREAKING: The UK's chief negotiator David Frost has told EU's Michel Barnier not to come to London on Monday for more Brexit talks.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1317144159271124997

ancapailldorcha

Despite the petty theatrics, I'm still inclined to think that some form of a deal is likely. It's just so tiresome that the government is still playing these silly, transparent little games with people's lives during the pandemic that they've made an even worse job of bungling.

Nody

Well it's Friday and we all need a smile; remember according to the UK Government's "worst reasonable estimate" there will be at most a 2 day queue at Calais. Now; here's the part you get to smile about. Picture day 1 Brexit; the first UK truck leaves for Calais with all his paperwork done. Goes off the ferry and suddenly the customs agent can't speak English, they only speak French. And the documents? Oh lalala, they are not in proper order, where's the french translation and approval and the stamp? Sorry; you get to turn around on the next ferry. Then on the high seas the French coast guard and police are all told to turn a blind eye on anyone trying to cross over to the UK; France has already made it clear they are not taking any refugees back, they are UKs problem now being a third party country and France has no idea where they came from. The UK fishermen trying to sell fish suddenly finds that their buyers don't want to buy any more fish because all the shellfish (live export) suddenly can't get through customs as the paperwork and inspections takes over a week to complete. Of course the French coast guard will protect the French waters as the UK fishermen try to enter the waters they are used to fish in. Oh no no no, these are now French waters, no British ships allowed in French waters; of course that can't stand and the Daily rag will scream about how the UK needs to sends the military boats there to no avail.

Then there's Gibraltar. Well now that it's a third country border EVERYTHING has to be inspected for going in and out and of course tariffs have to be paid. What's that? You want to enter to work as a British citizen? Please stand in that queue over there and you'll be allowed in a couple of hours if lucky and the siesta don't get extended. Of course the Spanish guards also forgot English; except for those who are EU nationals who are of course allowed to cross the border in the express lane.

But don't worry; it will be a reasonable worst case scenario of only two days queue in Calais etc.; because there is no way the French, Spanish etc. would be petty and make UK's life difficult.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think the EU should maximise every opportunity to take economic advantage of the UK in ways that suit the EU best. Simultaneously, any other aspects of any agreement should disadvantage the UK in every possible way that doesn't cause harm to the EU, pour encourager les autres. The UK does not deserve any goodwill. Also this is business. The EU's economy and future cohesion is the only guiding principle in these negotiations. That is what will best suit our long term interests.

Barnier linking Fishing to Energy.
80% of which is gas imports from EU and there's the electricity from France. National Grid warns of short supply of electricity over next few days

Interesting for us as we get gas from Scotland, but that's from Norway ?

RobMc59

If it`s true the UK has told the EU not to bother,at least we should find out next week whose bullsh*tting with all the tough talking.

BlitzKrieg

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

on cue sterling starts dropping

and at the end of the day, it's almost where it started but only slightly up.
No real affect on sterling at all, markets obviously think it's just par for the course for the negotiations.

Call me Al

I'm watching Johnson's piece to camera here on the C4 news. Sour grapes (45 years membership and this is us how they treat us - type of thing) and stiff upper lip (we will prosper as an independent nation etc) but the tone is off. He's stifling a smirk throughout much if it.

The lady doth protest too much methinks..

paul71

RobMc59 wrote: »

If it`s true the UK has told the EU not to bother,at least we should find out next week whose bullsh*tting with all the tough talking.

We have know since about a year before the referendum who was bullsh*tting. Actually we have known that for decades, the straight banana bullsh*t is about 30 years old.

Professor Moriarty

Call me Al wrote: »

I'm watching Johnson's piece to camera here on the C4 news. Sour grapes (45 years membership and this is us how they treat us - type of thing) and stiff upper lip (we will prosper as an independent nation etc) but the tone is off. He's stifling a smirk throughout much if it.

The lady doth protest too much methinks..

Last sting of a dying wasp.