Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

I would think people like John Redwood are far too busy getting their ducks in a row for the confirmation of no deal and the "extreme disruption" they have been keenly anticipating for 4 years. Laughing their heads off at all the useless dupes who made it all possible with their brexit claptrap and ideology.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A BRINO would be the best outcome. As much of the status quo as possible without any more EU taxpayer money going to dodgy parties like UKIP or the BXP.

People are fed up of this. The ERG are nothing. Rees-Mogg might have turned himself into a meme but when was the last time you heard from John Redwood or Mark Francois? They were handy for the media but the pandemic has largely made Brexit as a while irrelevant politically.

All they really have to do is give the UK some token concessions like blue passports, bendy bananas and maybe a brake on free movement that comes with a cessation of access to the single market should it be used and that's it. The usual lot will be moaning but now there's no MEP posts for them and Farage failed to get elected seven times. He's done. Look at what's he's had to resort to:

I hope I'm wrong and you're right. However...

Labour lost the Red Wall because they weren't Brexity (thanks Peregrinus) enough. Ergo, the Tories won their massive majority because they were Brexity. This is the thinking of the UK public now:

A poll from less than a month ago about another referendum:
Remain: 43%
Leave: 43%

A poll from 10 days ago. Was the UK right to leave the UK:
Yes 39%
No: 48%

A poll from 11 days ago:

44% believe there will be only positive or neutral short term consequences
49% believe there will be only positive or neutral long term consequences.

What these polls show, and Don't Knows must also be factored in because they are excluded, is that over 40% of the UK public still want Brexit today and believe it is the right thing to do. Overwhelmingly, these are the people who elected the Tories with the ERG's glovepuppet at the helm. This is the Tory base. They aren't for turning. Presented with facts, they will just believe harder. The very minute the ERG, Baker et al, start shouting BRINO, Johnson is gone. That's what is at play here.

RobMc59

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The UK are bullshítting as they always are.

That you think there's a chance it's the EU is laughable.

I already know Johnson is a bullsh*tter.If it turns out he's not the only one bullsh*tting,now that will be an eye opener....

druss

RobMc59 wrote: »

I already know Johnson is a bullsh*tter.If it turns out he's not the only one bullsh*tting,now that will be an eye opener....

How exactly are you measuring this? What could possibly happen next week that could establish this in respect of the EU position ?

Looks to me like Johnson is saying loudly "TALKS are off. No point in it anymore", while getting Frost to whisper sotto voce "...but TALK to you next week about those TALKS, ok guys?".

Barnier has a mandate from Council to continue talks. If Frost wants a meeting, it will happen. If Frost decides to change his position and refuse a meeting, so be it.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I hope I'm wrong and you're right. However...

Labour lost the Red Wall because they weren't Brexity (thanks Peregrinus) enough. Ergo, the Tories won their massive majority because they were Brexity. This is the thinking of the UK public now:

A poll from less than a month ago about another referendum:
Remain: 43%
Leave: 43%

A poll from 10 days ago. Was the UK right to leave the UK:
Yes 39%
No: 48%

A poll from 11 days ago:

44% believe there will be only positive or neutral short term consequences
49% believe there will be only positive or neutral long term consequences.

What these polls show, and Don't Knows must also be factored in because they are excluded, is that over 40% of the UK public still want Brexit today and believe it is the right thing to do. Overwhelmingly, these are the people who elected the Tories with the ERG's glovepuppet at the helm. This is the Tory base. They aren't for turning. Presented with facts, they will just believe harder. The very minute the ERG, Baker et al, start shouting BRINO, Johnson is gone. That's what is at play here.

I don't know if the red wall was about Brexit or people just wanting to have it out of the way. "Get Brexit done" was an effective slogan for a reason.

I think Johnson's win last year and his majority have secured him against the ERG. I'd wager his red wall MP's are going to be a much bigger thorn in his side. They didn't expect to win and now they'll want to keep their seats which means delivering for the north.

johnnyskeleton

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know if the red wall was about Brexit or people just wanting to have it out of the way. "Get Brexit done" was an effective slogan for a reason.

I think Johnson's win last year and his majority have secured him against the ERG. I'd wager his red wall MP's are going to be a much bigger thorn in his side. They didn't expect to win and now they'll want to keep their seats which means delivering for the north.

Exactly. We will never really know how many people wanted Brexit done to stop listening to it or on the basis of respecting the referendum result etc as opposed to those who actually support it.

As for the North, I think Johnson even acknowledged that they had "lent" their votes to the Tories, but they wont get to keep them. If there is an independent Scotland, or if Scotland keeps voting SNP vs Tory to the exclusion of Labour, the Tories will probably retain their majority no matter what the North of England does

View

20silkcut wrote: »

At the end of the day these are just trade talks. Some Brexiteers and some of the more excitable people on the EU side think it’s 1939 or 1914. But there are no armies mobilised, massed and waiting on the border for Irreversible hair trigger declarations. A fudge here or a fudge there will kick this on to eternity and that’s exactly what has happened over the last 4 years as many predicted.
And it could very easily continue like that for another 4 or 8 or 20 years. Like most trade talks. There is no political capital to be made out of ending this. The fact that we have filled pages and pages of this thread talking about fish and paperwork and customs has really put me thinking what is all this about? Normally this stuff is obscure and only for a few colourful grandstanding British politicians it would be.
The only thing brexit has achieved is raising the profile of a few of these nutter British politicians.
The only question in my opinion, is how the transition period can be extended without anyone losing face. And there’s two months for someone to engineer something there.
Even if No deal occurs on the 31st December fudging can still occur on the 1st January and forever thereafter.

Again, there is no longer any legal basis for the transition period to be extended (short of drafting a new international treaty to do so), and their is zero probability of the Brexiters requesting such a new treaty.

View

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

People here were livid about the proroguing of Parliament last year. That'll be as nothing compared to no deal.

Honestly, I think this is just theatrics. The civil servants, negotiatiors, sherpas and other grown ups will still be talking behind closed doors. This is just another incarnation of Johnson's "oven ready" deal which will be presented to the British public as a triumph of alleged British negotiating skill accomplished by standing up to Brussels so long as nobody scrutinises it at all and the tabloid readers are unlikely to do that.

I disagree with your assessment of how this will look. It's crucial that the EU gives the UK every opportunity to either climb down and reverse Brexit or grow up and negotiate a sensible deal. It's a horrific look for a club to be seen as or perceived to be trampling over a former member but in this case the conservatives are doing the trampling.

The ultimate difference between the EU and the UK when it comes to trade is that the EU is a veteran negotiator of trade deals while the UK is callow. The whole world can see how badly the UK has bungled and gaffed its way through this from insulting the EU to senior politicians voting against deals they negotiated.

The EU has acted as everyone predicted it would according to this:



The British drew red lines. The EU, not wanting to waste time presented the UK with the only option which they shot down again and again while offering nothing in return. All the Brexiters have done is complain and moan. They created this mess and have done nothing to fix it. All the while they've blustered and bullsh*tted and outside the tabloids and their readers they've humiliated themselves.

I don't think the British public are anywhere near as zealous about Brexit as they once were, insofar as they were at all. I think some of them voted for Johnson because they still wanted to leave while many voted for him because he offered a clear way forward in contrast with the prevarications offered by Jeremy Corbyn. Even if they continue to blame the EU which I doubt for all but the most fanatic of Brexiters, the government will be under huge pressure to spend inordinate sums of cash just maintaining the status quo, a task which will be made all but impossible given that they've opted to sever the economic equivalent of the carotid artery.

Fortunately, my passport has a few years to go so. I just want to see it end at this stage.

It isn’t the responsibility or obligation of the EU to provide climbdown options for the Brexiters. That’s their own responsibility. If they got themselves into a pickle, they have to get themselves out of it. The EU countries are not responsible for the stupidity of Brexiters.

CelticRambler

20silkcut wrote: »

At the end of the day these are just trade talks. Some Brexiteers and some of the more excitable people on the EU side think it’s 1939 or 1914.

It's not just trade talks, though: it's about disrupting the peaceful coexistence of 1+27 countries and their people for as much as 47 years, and all the transnational links those people have formed with Britain. Personal relationships, personal financial links, commercial relationships, educational and research collaborations, etc., etc.

In any conventional trade deal, you make arrangements based on the status quo, safe in the knowledge that if the talks result in a new deal, things will be better for you. In this case, the question is "how bad will things be?" - and that applies equally to both EU residents and GB citizens with active cross-Channel connections.

Sometimes I feel that people in Ireland, for all that they acknowledge that the country will suffer economically to some extent, are insulated from the harshest reality of Brexit by the UK-Ireland CTA.

It is not just about trade talks when it has a direct impact on the timing of my next trip to Britain, because I need to know if the plants I'll be bringing back will need phytosanitary documentation or not. If I happened to be bringing a dog with me, it'd already be too late to be able to bring him back, because the UK hasn't asked to be listed as a third country for the purposes of animal imports, and he didn't have his rabies blood test a month ago.

On which last point, I read earlier that the government deleted a Lords amendment to the Agriculture Bill, reinforcing their determination not to apply minimum welfare and environmental standards to agricultural imports. That'll upset their application for listed status ... :rolleyes:

RobMc59

druss wrote: »

How exactly are you measuring this? What could possibly happen next week that could establish this in respect of the EU position ?

Looks to me like Johnson is saying loudly "TALKS are off. No point in it anymore", while getting Frost to whisper sotto voce "...but TALK to you next week about those TALKS, ok guys?".

Barnier has a mandate from Council to continue talks. If Frost wants a meeting, it will happen. If Frost decides to change his position and refuse a meeting, so be it.

Saying negotiations are over in a theatrical manner is probably playing to the crowd at home although I did see a chap on sky news (missed his name)who claimed Canada and the Walloons did the exact same thing which resulted in deals being struck.
The UK wants a deal but is trying to call the EU's bluff.My suggestion that we will find out who is bullsh*tting next week was speculation.Judging by the opinions of many here the EU will say 'Ok,as you wish,negotiations are over'.It'll be strange if they don't say that wouldn't you think?

druss

RobMc59 wrote: »

Saying negotiations are over in a theatrical manner is probably playing to the crowd at home although I did see a chap on sky news (missed his name)who claimed Canada and the Walloons did the exact same thing which resulted in deals being struck.
The UK wants a deal but is trying to call the EU's bluff.My suggestion that we will find out who is bullsh*tting next week was speculation.Judging by the opinions of many here the EU will say 'Ok,as you wish,negotiations are over'.It'll be strange if they don't say that wouldn't you think?

I don't see a real parallel in the Wallonia example. Certainly not in a way which is helpful to the UK. It was "post-negotiation", in a sense and also where the EU had to recalibrate slightly to dig out a member state.

Again, I don't see how you would expect to establish that the EU is bxll****ing next week. Whether a meeting takes place or not is entirely a matter for the UK

Council had already noted the obstacles in place, but asked Barnier to continue to work hard for a deal. So he is expected to turn up if Frost puts out the name plates and the coffee cups.

The UK has said two different things. The EU has said one thing.

Do you really, really, really see it as sign of some sort of panic by EU if Barnier meets with Frost next week? Or that he will turn up to a locked building, tearfully promising the UK all the fish they want if they will just buy German cars?

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

Judging by the opinions of many here the EU will say 'Ok,as you wish,negotiations are over'.It'll be strange if they don't say that wouldn't you think?

The exact opposite: what sort of moron would say that ? Seriously why? Things end anyway on 1 January and the UK starts to burn in hellfire - why should the EU stop talking to them? Let them collapse and suffocate in their hubris - let's strip the UK's wealth from its bones and then and only then throw them a bone (and in the meantime talk, talk, talk).

RobMc59

druss wrote: »

I don't see a real parallel in the Wallonia example. Certainly not in a way which is helpful to the UK. It was "post-negotiation", in a sense and also where the EU had to recalibrate slightly to dig out a member state.

Again, I don't see how you would expect to establish that the EU is bxll****ing next week. Whether a meeting takes place or not is entirely a matter for the UK

Council had already noted the obstacles in place, but asked Barnier to continue to work hard for a deal. So he is expected to turn up if Frost puts out the name plates and the coffee cups.

The UK has said two different things. The EU has said one thing.

Do you really, really, really see it as sign of some sort of panic by EU if Barnier meets with Frost next week? Or that he will turn up to a locked building, tearfully promising the UK all the fish they want if they will just buy German cars?

I merely said we may find out exactly who is bullsh*tting and regarding your comment about fish,whose fish would the EU promise to the UK?

ancapailldorcha

View wrote: »

It isn’t the responsibility or obligation of the EU to provide climbdown options for the Brexiters. That’s their own responsibility. If they got themselves into a pickle, they have to get themselves out of it. The EU countries are not responsible for the stupidity of Brexiters.

I'm honestly confused as to how you inferred this from my post.

The UK is an important trading partner for both Ireland and the EU. Obviously, this is not to say that the single market should be compromised to suit the wishes of the Brexiters but if it doesn't hurt the EU to throw the UK a bone then it should. Indeed, it has done more than once.

By far the best outcome of this is that a close trading relationship between the EU and the UK is established and maintained. The UK is a major European and global power. It's economic disintegration would risk it falling to far right nationalists and that is not in anyone's best interet.

druss

RobMc59 wrote: »

I merely said we may find out exactly who is bullsh*tting and regarding your comment about fish,whose fish would the EU promise to the UK?

Hardly seems worth engaging, to be honest. I've asked twice now how you would find this out and you've not answered either time.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK wants a deal but is trying to call the EU's bluff.My suggestion that we will find out who is bullsh*tting next week was speculation.Judging by the opinions of many here the EU will say 'Ok,as you wish,negotiations are over'.It'll be strange if they don't say that wouldn't you think?

On the contrary: it would be very strange if the EU said "fine, we're done, feck off now." For years, we've had Brexiters repeating the last minute blink line, even though they've had it pointed out to them that these scenarios were all *intracommunity* discussions; but that when it came to third country negotiations, the EU was ruthlessly patient.

And again, Johnson's theatrical antics underline the desperate lack of effective, quiet, diplomatic statesmanship in the UK. Grandstanding for the home audience might generate lots of warm fuzzy headlines, and maybe even some votes, but all the while he's poncing about for the UK media, the French, German, Irish, Spanish (and other) ministers, ambassadors and civil servants are revising and fine tuning their terms and conditions.

The Irish have already proven how well this kind of quiet activism works, by getting "our" concerns onto the table four years ago, and into a legal text last year. No silly theatrics needed.

listermint

druss wrote: »

Hardly seems worth engaging, to be honest. I've asked twice now how you would find this out and you've not answered either time.

Robs a reformed remainer. He seems to think the rules for trade with the EU which the EU have actually written down and babe repeated various times over and over for the past 4 years may actually be bull **** and not rules at all ....


... I suppose we will see.

Imreoir2

20silkcut wrote: »

Britain could declare no deal and have a no deal party on the 31st December and farage could be cheerleading and congratulating himself etc etc. Then come 1st January and thereafter , talks continue. Transition period is over but sure we will just leave things as they are until the talks conclude. We won’t call it a transition period just a period of mutual understanding to benefit the self interest of both parties until something better comes along. As long as Britain gets its no deal and there is no give on the EU side everybody is happy. There won’t be anyone on the streets over this. Why change anything until talks are concluded. Why put up customs posts etc just hold tough continue with current arrangements until talks are concluded. Whenever or if ever that may be.

I don't think that is an option, in the absence of a formal FTA the UK EU trade relationship would default to WTO terms. Doing what you suggest would have knock on effects for the EU as a result of most favoured nation rules under the WTO, which would require the EU to treat everyone else in the same way.

BluePlanet

On the basis of Johnson's letter, the EU should shut the door on talks now and use the remaining time to put the negotiation progress in deep freeze (to be thawed out later when Britain is ready to do business), and prep for a no deal WTO relationship.

There is probably time for some temporary bespoke border infrastructure here, until they get the the construction crews going for more permanent fixtures. We've wasted 3 years for this sh*tshow and it's been a real possibility from day one.
The state of preparedness here firmly a competency of government.

Imreoir2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Rees-Mogg might have turned himself into a meme but when was the last time you heard from John Redwood or Mark Francois?

Mr Francois has largely disapeared in recent months, he was appointed chair of the ERG in March but has reportedly not attended meetings recently, and has not been seen in parliament lately.

Meanwhile, in unrelated news, a male Tory MP and former Minister in his 50's was recently reported to have been arrested over rape and sexual assualt allegations.

Thargor

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Mr Francois has largely disapeared in recent months, he was appointed chair of the ERG in March but has reportedly not attended meetings recently, and has not been seen in parliament lately.

Meanwhile, in unrelated news, a male Tory MP and former Minister in his 50's was recently reported to have been arrested over rape and sexual assualt allegations.

Oh wow I thought you were taking the piss but it is him judging by Twitter, he's quit as head of the ERG aswell.

Jizique

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Mr Francois has largely disapeared in recent months, he was appointed chair of the ERG in March but has reportedly not attended meetings recently, and has not been seen in parliament lately.

Meanwhile, in unrelated news, a male Tory MP and former Minister in his 50's was recently reported to have been arrested over rape and sexual assualt allegations.

He is thought to be in Mustique, recovering from serious allegations, using the same villa Johnson did for his post-election vacation - it is still not known who paid for it

Leroy42

BluePlanet wrote: »

On the basis of Johnson's letter, the EU should shut the door on talks now and use the remaining time to put the negotiation progress in deep freeze (to be thawed out later when Britain is ready to do business), and prep for a no deal WTO relationship.

That is what the UK want, same as when they launched the IM bill.

EU take the higher ground, continuing to talk. Regardless of what happens, deal no deal whatever, EU and UK will always be talking so pointless to stop now.

View

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm honestly confused as to how you inferred this from my post.

The UK is an important trading partner for both Ireland and the EU. Obviously, this is not to say that the single market should be compromised to suit the wishes of the Brexiters but if it doesn't hurt the EU to throw the UK a bone then it should. Indeed, it has done more than once.

By far the best outcome of this is that a close trading relationship between the EU and the UK is established and maintained. The UK is a major European and global power. It's economic disintegration would risk it falling to far right nationalists and that is not in anyone's best interet.

The U.K. has already fallen to far right nationalists with Brexit isolationism being standard in both of their major parties at this stage.

Again, it is not the responsibility of the EU countries to “throw a bone” to Brexiters. They got themselves into this mess and it is up to them, not anyone else, to deliver their Brexit utopia.

Be under no illusion, were the situation reversed (ie had Ireland, not the U.K., left), and we needed a bone to be thrown to us to save us from our delusions, Brexiters would be the first to refuse it and would go out of their way to publicly ridicule us.

View

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is what the UK want, same as when they launched the IM bill.

EU take the higher ground, continuing to talk. Regardless of what happens, deal no deal whatever, EU and UK will always be talking so pointless to stop now.

On the contrary, the EU should be prepared to talk up and until midnight on Dec 31st. After that, it should be years before talking to the U.K.

Why? Because at that point either there is an FTA in place, at which point it should be let run for years which is what happens with every other FTA (since FTAs are typically not changed for decades), or, there is no FTA because the Brexiters ran down the clock deliberately assuming they could just keep talking after Dec 31 - in which case, the counter to their arrogance, is to put them right to the back of the EU’s “non-EU countries to negotiate an FTA with” list and let them wait their turn like every other non-EU country has to do. Brexit, after all, does mean Brexit and no non-EU country can demand or expect special favours from the EU.

Shelga

Unctuous. That’s a good word for Michael Gove. He’s currently saying that the EU have pulled back from talks, nothing to do with good old Blighty. “Australian-style terms”- the sad thing is people fall for this absolute rubbish conjured up by Cummings.

Vile. That’s another good Gove descriptor.

Leroy42

Am I right in thinking that the reason why they use Australian type deal is A) it avoids mentioning no deal but Australia has a number of side deals with regards to certain standards etc?

So, in my own head, the UK are banking on the idea that No Deal is never going to happen, things won't suddenly stop.

Joe_ Public

Have to hand it to Gove, succeeded in ending both sky and marr interviews with "take back control". If there was ever even an iota of substance to anything he said, he would be one heck of a performer. Big line about the eu refusing to produce a "detailed legal text" for an agreement. But why would they do this before any actual agreement was reached on the substantive issues? Reminds me of the bit in shipmans brexit book where Theresa May turns up for the very first preliminary informal talks and blurts out that she hopes they can hammer out the bones of a trade deal before the end of the day, or along those lines. Bunch of useless amateurs.

Sam Russell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Have to hand it to Gove, succeeded in ending both sky and marr interviews with "take back control". If there was ever even an iota of substance to anything he said, he would be one heck of a performer. Big line about the eu refusing to produce a "detailed legal text" for an agreement. But why would they do this before any actual agreement was reached on the substantive issues? Reminds me of the bit in shipmans brexit book where Theresa May turns up for the very first preliminary informal talks and blurts out that she hopes they can hammer out the bones of a trade deal before the end of the day, or along those lines. Bunch of useless amateurs.

I would think the EU have detailed legal texts that fit every possible form of likely agreement with the UK, already printed out in indexed format on A4 paper with executive summary, available in any colour requested. Look how quickly the WA appeared, and the UK side never really read it past the executive summary.

The EU are not for playing to the gallery, just business at hand - "Sign here, and here. Do you need a copy for yourselves? Thank you and good night."

Joe_ Public

Sam Russell wrote: »

I would think the EU have detailed legal texts that fit every possible form of likely agreement with the UK, already printed out in indexed format on A4 paper with executive summary, available in any colour requested. Look how quickly the WA appeared, and the UK side never really read it past the executive summary.

The EU are not for playing to the gallery, just business at hand - "Sign here, and here. Do you need a copy for yourselves? Thank you and good night."

Yeah, i would assume so. I'm no expert in business negotiations but i'm assuming it's not conventional to be producing the legal texts even as talks are ongoing. We all know it's purely a line for domestic consumption anyway.