2020 the battle of the septuagenarians - Trump vs Biden, Part 2

Kidchameleon

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

she didnt. the results were within the margin of error of the polls. bidens lead is much bigger than the margin of error.

Just on this. They were within the margin of error right at polling day... but where they in the months of the lead up? I remeber Hillary being way ahead in every poll for a long time

Kidchameleon

Leroy42 wrote: »

Wasn't Trump at Chelsea Clintons wedding and Ivanka and Chelsea were friends?

Ghislaine Maxwell was also at that wedding.

Leroy42

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Just on this. They were within the margin of error right at polling day... but where they in the months of the lead up? I remeber Hillary being way ahead in every poll for a long time

That is very true, and one thing was that people got to see and hear Trump and decided that he was worth a vote.

This time, however, he is not an unknown quantity. There are much less undecided voters, or at least voters that are not aware of the real Trump, than last time.

HC was never liked, in fact many outright hated her, but many expected that she would simply be too hard to beat. Biden is not hated, not even the GOP hate him (although of course that all changes now).

HC always had both Bengazi and the missing email hovering over her. Sure the GOP may push the Hunter angle, but it isn't the same really is it?

Leroy42

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Ghislaine Maxwell was also at that wedding.

And, so what? The poster was making the point that one possible VP pick had associations to the Clintons.

I'm pretty sure Maxwell is not in the running for VP pick.

I fully understand why Trump would want to keep the Clintons, particularly HC, relevant in this election, but she isn't.

dwayneshintzy

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Just on this. They were within the margin of error right at polling day... but where they in the months of the lead up? I remeber Hillary being way ahead in every poll for a long time

Clinton led by an average of 4% throughout the summer and into November. Here's a roundup from September '16; https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-how-big-is-hillary-clintons-lead/


Biden's lead is much bigger than 4% in all major, national polls being done now and over the past couple months.

Carfacemandog

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Just on this. They were within the margin of error right at polling day... but where they in the months of the lead up? I remeber Hillary being way ahead in every poll for a long time

She was, and then Comey went public about a new batch of emails being under investigation by the FBI about 10 days out from the election, having spent weeks/months prior to this refusing to make public that the FBI were also investigating Russian interference with the Trump campaign on the basis that the FBI are not allowed to comment on anything that might into an election within something like 100 days of it. After that, the polls closed in sharply and Trump wound up winning a bunch of states by razor thin margins.

Had the reverse happened, it would be talked about for years if not decades. Comey wasn't aprt of some conspiracy, he was just incredible vein and image obsessed and reacted according to that rather than according to consistently fulfilling his remit. It's been a little nauseating at times listening to him talk about ethics and such since, but the irony of him being fired for a falsified reason of helping Clinton in the election (if I recall?) by Trump is some pretty hilarious irony at the same time.

Let's put it like this:

Trump has tens of thousands of hours of speeches and thousands of tweets out there. Most of his gaffes are because he is too stupid to know what he doesn't know "Inject yourself with disinfectant", typos like "covfefe" and "hamberders", mispronunciations like Yosemite because again he barely reads.

Biden OTOH gives maybe 3 calls a month, and they are littered with serious mistakes, whole sentences and paragraphs that make no sense, and stunning faux pas like

“We should challenge students in these schools,” Mr. Biden said. “We have this notion that somehow if you’re poor, you cannot do it. Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.”

He paused, then added: “Wealthy kids, black kids, Asian kids — no I really mean it, but think how we think about it.”

and

"What you all know that most people don't know, unlike the African American community with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community, with incredibly different attitudes about different things," Biden said. "You go to Florida, you find a very different attitude about immigration in certain places than you do when you're in Arizona. So it's a very different, a very diverse community."

I mean, of all the things Trump said, he was always very careful to refer to "some bad people in certain communities" . Biden, the supposed anti racist and hero of the African Americans, has really said some appalling things, that if Trump had said them, CNN would be running non stop headlines.

Realistically someone who makes such a high level of gaffes in such a low level of appearances is not a fit candidate to run for president. They should find a different candidate.

Leroy42

You honestly think Biden is only doing 3 a month? Despite having gone through the DNC primaries, including a number of debates?

People are trying this false equivalency again. Sure Trump is stupid, racist, lazy, corrupt and appears to be completely in the pocket of Putin, but Biden makes a few gaffes so they are equal!

Everything Trump writes in a tweet has the chance to be vetted an verified. He isn't being caught off guard or just making a simple mistake.

He cannot handle questions at a press conference, his previous daily briefings were judged to be so bad and so detrimental that he was forced to stop them.

dwayneshintzy

Biden has a history of saying some pretty dumb things, he was viewed as a "gaffe" machine long before this campaign. Which is a bit of a problem for Trump, both because he wants to portray Biden as losing his mind (rather than simple gaffes he's been guilty of for decades) and because he himself can't speak publicly for more than 10 seconds without making an absolute fool of himself.

Igotadose

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Ghislaine Maxwell was also at that wedding.

Did Trump dance with her like he did with HRC?

Timberrrrrrrr

Igotadose wrote: »

Did Trump dance with her like he did with HRC?

No

But after her arrest on suspicion of child trafficking he did wish her well.

Eric Cartman

Eric Cartman wrote: »

The media made a big error last time in allowing trump to be trump, theres now a massive over correction , more manipulation of numbers and samples etc... they're determined not to be shown up again.

Gonna backup the claims of manipulation? It was always within the margin of error at the time. Also the major difference this time is Trump is an established politician now and he's failed. He's also gonna have 200k+ deaths on his hands by November cause he has failed to act time and time again.

Faugheen

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Just on this. They were within the margin of error right at polling day... but where they in the months of the lead up? I remeber Hillary being way ahead in every poll for a long time

Biden is already higher than Hillary ever was at her peak.

Faugheen

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Biden has a history of saying some pretty dumb things, he was viewed as a "gaffe" machine long before this campaign. Which is a bit of a problem for Trump, both because he wants to portray Biden as losing his mind (rather than simple gaffes he's been guilty of for decades) and because he himself can't speak publicly for more than 10 seconds without making an absolute fool of himself.

Biden also has a history of frustrating people in 1v1 debates. I can’t see Trump being able to contain himself.

Quin_Dub

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I really really really hope Biden doesn't select Kamala Harris as VP. What about Bass, she's not connected to the Clinton's and looks excellent.

Bass could be a problem for Biden in Florida - She has a past with showing some level of support for Castro and Cuba in general which would be toxic to the Cuban immigrant vote in Florida which is not insignificant.

There's also the Scientology connection.

I don't have any issues with Harris in particular , just think she'd be better suited to the AG role - The justice department is going to need a lot of work post Barr.

I also think that she would view time as AG as a better launch pad for Harris for another tilt at the Presidency than VP to Biden.

Whitmer is probably a very strong option as she looks fairly strong all round and would shore up the Mid-West states.

On the downside , she might hurt him a little because there has been a strong push for a woman of colour.

dwayneshintzy

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Bass could be a problem for Biden in Florida - She has a past with showing some level of support for Castro and Cuba in general which would be toxic to the Cuban immigrant vote in Florida which is not insignificant.

There's also the Scientology connection.

I don't have any issues with Harris in particular , just think she'd be better suited to the AG role - The justice department is going to need a lot of work post Barr.

I also think that she would view time as AG as a better launch pad for Harris for another tilt at the Presidency than VP to Biden.

Whitmer is probably a very strong option as she looks fairly strong all round and would shore up the Mid-West states.

On the downside , she might hurt him a little because there has been a strong push for a woman of colour.

Schiff would have a great shout for AG as well, in the case of a Biden win.

Quin_Dub

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Just on this. They were within the margin of error right at polling day... but where they in the months of the lead up? I remeber Hillary being way ahead in every poll for a long time

Not really - Trump had been in the lead right at the end of July and had also led several times earlier in the spring/summer




He dipped HARD in early to mid August on foot of his "Gold Star Family" fight but recovered to be within a point by mid September.

Then the "Grab em by the pu$$y" tape broke and he tanked again but recovered to within 3 points on Election day (which was the Actual National vote gap).

So far , Biden has held a consistent lead all along so far , Trump has never gotten closer than about 4.5 points behind.

The Gap currently stands at 7.2 Nationally.

More importantly , RCP are now tracking the swing states - Averaging the polls from Wisconsin, North Carolina , Florida, Pennsylvania,Michigan and Arizona



And while Trump has shown a bit of a recovery in those states in the last couple of weeks as more polling starts to flow through , Biden's numbers are very stable and he still has a combined "Battle-ground" lead of 4.4.

Remember , Trump needs to win pretty much ALL of those states to win , Biden can afford to lose 2 or 3 of them and still get to 270.

Faugheen

Biden flips Michigan, Wisconsin and PA and holds onto Hillary’s states, he wins.

I named those three because the gap was less than 1 point in 2016.

Quin_Dub

Faugheen wrote: »

Biden flips Michigan, Wisconsin and PA and holds onto Hillary’s states, he wins.

I named those three because the gap was less than 1 point in 2016.

Exactly.. Biden will win every state that Clinton did so he only needs 57/58 EC votes to win.. Any combination of 3 or 4 of the above States and he's home

Faugheen

Biden has revealed his running mate to his advisors according to CNN.

We could get an announcement on it today.

Faugheen

Faugheen wrote: »

Biden has revealed his running mate to his advisors according to CNN.

We could get an announcement on it today.

I've been hearing today or tomorrow for it.

mcmoustache

Deleted User wrote: »

I've been hearing today or tomorrow for it.

@yashar thinks it could be tonight. And I saw that one betting market slashed odds on Rice. Biden has also revealed his choice to insiders so some people already know.


As we say, ní rún é má tá a fhios ag triúr é.

dwayneshintzy

Kamala Harris announced

Cody montana

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Kamala Harris announced

Awesome.
She’s a lioness.
No bull****e.

timsey tiger

Their no toss up map atm 352 to Biden.

gmisk

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Kamala Harris announced

Great choice

TheValeyard

Very strong choice.

Biden has a much better chance now.

alchemist33

Cody montana wrote: »

Awesome.
She’s a lioness.
No bull****e.

A very impressive character alright.

mcmoustache

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Kamala Harris announced

Not terribly surprising. She's a tough cookie.


Without personal discipline and a top team around him, Trump might find it difficult to straddle that line between dog-whistling and outright racism.

Foxtrol

Strong, safe choice. She is such a good speaker that they can let her go on the air 24/7 if they want to.

Presume Pence will be crapping it, not only because he'll be on stage alone with a woman that isn't 'mother'.