Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

FintanMcluskey

Assetbacked wrote: »

I understand this point but at the same time the deficits are the result of restrictions and not the virus itself. I mean, if you think about it, what stopped the economy and created the deficit, not the virus but the reaction to it.

And if you remove the restrictions, you end up with Sweden

road_high

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

And if you remove the restrictions, you end up with Sweden

With deaths and cases not all that far off what we have seen. Despite how our idiotic media like to paint them as reckless chancers

vid36

road_high wrote: »

With deaths and cases not all that far off what we have seen. Despite how our idiotic media like to paint them as reckless chancers

No guarantee you end up like Sweden.You can turn out like Texas ,Lombardy or Catalonia instead.

road_high

vid36 wrote: »

No guarantee you end up like Sweden.You can turn out like Texas ,Lombardy or Catalonia instead.

Ah right so the comparisons with Sweden no longer fit the narrative so we’ll move onto the next worst places we can find...

Assetbacked

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

And if you remove the restrictions, you end up with Sweden

Today the FT posted a story about Sweden "only" suffering 9% GDP contraction in the 2nd quarter. Only!

We are 8bn+ worse off compared to this time last year. 5 months in! The government actually cannot achieve balanced books, it is literally impossible. In fact, we need billions to restart the economy. The covid economic project of a mere 5 months shows how finely poised the whole thing was. That 8bn is really 11-14bn assuming we got back to normal tomorrow in order to fund the restart but it's going to be much higher as the gov need to keep paying pandemic payments and publicans to not make money.

Public expenditure has increased massively the past few years so the low hanging fruit in the forthcoming budget is social welfare and public and civil sector salaries. As opposed to tax increases or free money borrowing. Perhaps, property taxes payable upon the death of old people is another measure. These are the actual considerations of the department of finance. Of course, they are directly at odds with persisting with covid restrictions.

It is not sustainable to prolong the lives of old people at all costs (such costs being economically punitive to younger generations) and not shift some of the bill to the home owning elderly folk. I think we can all agree that pensioners who own their home outright should be able to release that equity in order to cover the economic cost of covid restrictions.

road_high

road_high wrote: »

The deluded ones are the ones that believe we can keep borrowing at this rate and not see massive cuts to welfare and public services.
Massive deficits aren’t just something that happen without a price or consequence to be paid.
The next moves we will see are the government softening the ground for these. Even at the height of the crisis in 09/10 the deficits pro rata weren’t anywhere near as bad as the past 3 months. July is worrying as that’s a full month where we had “reopened”- and still €7 billion plus in the red. 12 months of those figures and we are truly fcuked - and there’s nothing to suggest any improvement soon. We are literally burning through cash at a rate of knots. With effected business (rightly) all screaming for cash supports

Largest part of the deficit is increased health spending. How much more would that have been without restrictions, and we still would have a significant unemployment bubble. The money we”borrowed” in truth was printed and is underwritten by the ecb. In other words us. If there were major concerns of our ability to repay our bond yields would not be negative. IE. People are willing to pay a small amount for us to owe them money. They know because of the ECBs actions our Risk of default is tiny. The debt will likely never be repaid, just rolled over and over. If interest rates return to high levels it’s either that the economy has returned to strong growth in which case we will have the money, or there has been significant inflation, in which case the effective amount owed will have fallen in real terms

fr336

road_high wrote: »

Ah right so the comparisons with Sweden no longer fit the narrative so we’ll move onto the next worst places we can find...

Its called not wanting to take the risk with peoples lives and letting something spiral. "The narrative" give me strength!

dalyboy

Diabhalta wrote: »

somewhere where they went back to normal (no, current situation in Ireland is far from normal). No masks, live music, everything open like before, swimming pools with sauna etc.. a place with no more silly restrictions and generally a society that is relaxed. A place with different mindset.

those places exist, you have to look for them... and when you find them... just go there for few weeks. I would go crazy if I wouldn't go, this place is nuts!

I’m with you on this. I’m seriously thinking of Sweden or one of the Nordic countries for a September holiday.

Most of them countries are back to normal and there’s very slim chance of seeing these clowns walking outdoors / on streets with their face burkas on.

I’m about to boil over with my dismay at this stage.
Was originally planning on Spain but they seem to have gone off the rails with masks even walking on the beach .... Jesus WTF !?

John O.Groats

dalyboy wrote: »

I’m with you on this. I’m seriously thinking of Sweden or one of the Nordic countries for a September holiday.

Most of them countries are back to normal and there’s very slim chance of seeing these clowns walking outdoors / on streets with their face burkas on.

I’m about to boil over with my dismay at this stage.
Was originally planning on Spain but they seem to have gone off the rails with masks even walking on the beach .... Jesus WTF !?

As time goes on more and more countries will be making the wearing of masks in public places mandatory including the Nordic countries so you had better get used to seeing plenty of them.

dockysher

dalyboy wrote: »

I’m with you on this. I’m seriously thinking of Sweden or one of the Nordic countries for a September holiday.

Most of them countries are back to normal and there’s very slim chance of seeing these clowns walking outdoors / on streets with their face burkas on.

I’m about to boil over with my dismay at this stage.
Was originally planning on Spain but they seem to have gone off the rails with masks even walking on the beach .... Jesus WTF !?

Wooh your such a rebel

dalyboy

dalyboy wrote: »

I’m about to boil over with my dismay at this stage.

About masks? Seriously? Wearing a mask is really not a big deal. Grow up....you just sound like a baby

i_surge

facehugger99 wrote: »

Are there still people out there that believe lockdown is an effective tool to combat Covid-19?

It's laughable at this stage. How many billions will need to be flushed down the toilet, how many hundreds of thousands of viable jobs need to be lost before the penny drops?

The virus will outlast our ability to stay locked down - that's the reality.

It is laughable that there are still disbelievers such is the weight of numerical evidence.

dalyboy

Deleted User wrote: »

About masks? Seriously? Wearing a mask is really not a big deal. Grow up....you just sound like a baby

It’s not a big deal to YOU. It is for me. It’s uncomfortable and is a mandate now to wear one. In a “free” democratic society this is a complete outrage ,pandemic or no pandemic.

MickeyLeari

Assetbacked wrote: »

Today the FT posted a story about Sweden "only" suffering 9% GDP contraction in the 2nd quarter. Only!

We are 8bn+ worse off compared to this time last year. 5 months in! The government actually cannot achieve balanced books, it is literally impossible. In fact, we need billions to restart the economy. The covid economic project of a mere 5 months shows how finely poised the whole thing was. That 8bn is really 11-14bn assuming we got back to normal tomorrow in order to fund the restart but it's going to be much higher as the gov need to keep paying pandemic payments and publicans to not make money.

Public expenditure has increased massively the past few years so the low hanging fruit in the forthcoming budget is social welfare and public and civil sector salaries. As opposed to tax increases or free money borrowing. Perhaps, property taxes payable upon the death of old people is another measure. These are the actual considerations of the department of finance. Of course, they are directly at odds with persisting with covid restrictions.

It is not sustainable to prolong the lives of old people at all costs (such costs being economically punitive to younger generations) and not shift some of the bill to the home owning elderly folk. I think we can all agree that pensioners who own their home outright should be able to release that equity in order to cover the economic cost of covid restrictions.

Interesting. I agree there is not much in terms of low hanging fruit. Reducing public sector numbers is an option but that is easier said than done - a hiring freeze is one option with incentivised retirement and career breaks another. Not sure there is much room to manoeuvre on salaries - the reality is that the last cuts in terms of pension contributions (and cuts on pensions) are still there and net salaries are still lower than they were in 2007. But they will have probably have to push through something. The big expenditure item that needed to be trimmed pre Covid is health but that has now gone through the roof with less productivity than they had. CAT increases will be offset by the reduction in property values and unemployment will remain high as business start letting people go (BOI is only the start). And social welfare will go through the roof with the unemployment numbers which are artificially low at 17% (the TWSS is hiding the real figure). Will FF, FG cut welfare rates with SF in opposition?

We were a small open economy and we will need a new strategy for the economy given the wish by NPHET to close us down. Businesses like Kerry will really start to feel the heat if Ireland remains unconnected to its main markets.

Overall things are not looking good. I know some of the hawks will point to the economic disaster of a second wave and they are correct to a degree but we may well have created our own economic second wave pandemic all on our own with the continued restrictions and the “fear factor” in respect to normalish daily life.

A friend has decided now to cancel restaurant and hairdressing bookings due to the recent spikes due to the fear (messaging from Govt.) that it is now back in the community.

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

fr336 wrote: »

Its called not wanting to take the risk with peoples lives and letting something spiral. "The narrative" give me strength!

If you think for a second that there isn’t a “narrative” you’re incredibly naive.

Give me strength!

MickeyLeari

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Largest part of the deficit is increased health spending. How much more would that have been without restrictions, and we still would have a significant unemployment bubble. The money we”borrowed” in truth was printed and is underwritten by the ecb. In other words us. If there were major concerns of our ability to repay our bond yields would not be negative. IE. People are willing to pay a small amount for us to owe them money. They know because of the ECBs actions our Risk of default is tiny. The debt will likely never be repaid, just rolled over and over. If interest rates return to high levels it’s either that the economy has returned to strong growth in which case we will have the money, or there has been significant inflation, in which case the effective amount owed will have fallen in real terms

We are in a false comfort zone. If our debt to GDP ratio goes over 100% then the cost of borrowing will increase in the coming years when we seek to refinance the debt. Given we still have substantial debt from the financial crisis on the books (which was hidden by artificial GDP gains) we will find that the cost of servicing the debt will remain a drag on the economy.

We are also at risk if other economies start to rebound quicker and if we face other headwinds at the same time such as new International tax rules which damage our competitiveness and potentially MNEs scaling back on investment as well as active job cuts.

Unfortunately also that we have a very unstable Government which the way things are going will not last the year.

I know this is very pessimistic and that there is a glass half full argument there but calls for austerity policies last week will dent the economic stimulus plans. If many households are facing pay cuts then they will hold back on expenditures as we have seen already with new cars and no doubt will be felt in the home improvements sector.

Hopefully the construction/property investment sector will hold its nerve and continue to build but that is also subject matter to sentiment.

yawhat?

Assetbacked wrote: »

Ah so there is your agenda! With nothing to back you up you make a racist claim. I could feel your keyboard warrior instincts being suppressed the whole time, eager to throw out the word racist when I made a comment as to how it is inconsistent to use economically isolated groupings of cases as reasons to keep the whole economy shut down. Such a precious poster you are, Boards is lucky to have you!

With nothing to back me up? Trump wouldn’t hold a candle to you. Singling out ethnic minorities at the “reason” cases are increasing and the “reason why” we didn’t go to phase 4 is the very definition of racism. You wrote that and you used ethnicity rather than economic grouping as your initial defining traits.

Wanderer78

MickeyLeari wrote: »

We are in a false comfort zone. If our debt to GDP ratio goes over 100% then the cost of borrowing will increase in the coming years when we seek to refinance the debt. Given we still have substantial debt from the financial crisis on the books (which was hidden by artificial GDP gains) we will find that the cost of servicing the debt will remain a drag on the economy.

We are also at risk if other economies start to rebound quicker and if we face other headwinds at the same time such as new International tax rules which damage our competitiveness and potentially MNEs scaling back on investment as well as active job cuts.

Unfortunately also that we have a very unstable Government which the way things are going will not last the year.

I know this is very pessimistic and that there is a glass half full argument there but calls for austerity policies last week will dent the economic stimulus plans. If many households are facing pay cuts then they will hold back on expenditures as we have seen already with new cars and no doubt will be felt in the home improvements sector.

Hopefully the construction/property investment sector will hold its nerve and continue to build but that is also subject matter to sentiment.

I wouldn't be overly worried about the national debt, it's the only place we can go to, to get us out of this mess, as always, growing private sector debt causes far more problems

MadYaker

Re national debt, I don’t think this is a much of an issue for a few reasons. This recession will be different to the last one. We know that in the next year or two these restrictions will be gone and full economic activity will resume so I think on that basis the government aren’t massively concerned about ballooning national debt because they know that the debt can be managed once the economy is fully open again. Another reason I don’t think this is such an issue is that every country in the EU is in the exact same position so I’d expect the ECB to simply give massive long term loans to everyone at effectively 0% to help us get back on our feet. I don’t think a return to austerity is necessary or possible politically here or anywhere in the EU.

There’s a lot of doom and gloom and stress in this thread and sometimes when I read the posts in here by people tearing their hair out over restrictions it’s like the last 5 months didn’t even happen and we can just ignore the pandemic somehow and go back to normal. There’s now nowhere on this planet you can go where there are no restrictions in some form or another and every country is more or less the same. I’ve been training myself to accept the things I can’t change and it’s making all this easier to deal with.

Penfailed

dalyboy wrote: »

It’s not a big deal to YOU. It is for me. It’s uncomfortable and is a mandate now to wear one. In a “free” democratic society this is a complete outrage ,pandemic or no pandemic.

Complete outrage?! Wise up. Look at it like this - you have to wear clothes in public lest you get arrested for outraging public decency. Masks are just more clothes. Doctors, nurses, people in the construction industry, professional graffiti artists, fire fighters, people who work in spray booths, etc., etc., etc. Granted, these people wear them to protect themselves whereas in this instance face coverings are really to protect others. It's really no big deal.

Wanderer78

MadYaker wrote: »

Re national debt, I don’t think this is a much of an issue for a few reasons. This recession will be different to the last one. We know that in the next year or two these restrictions will be gone and full economic activity will resume so I think on that basis the government aren’t massively concerned about ballooning national debt because they know that the debt can be managed once the economy is fully open again. Another reason I don’t think this is such an issue is that every country in the EU is in the exact same position so I’d expect the ECB to simply give massive long term loans to everyone at effectively 0% to help us get back on our feet. I don’t think a return to austerity is necessary or possible politically here or anywhere in the EU.

There’s a lot of doom and gloom and stress in this thread and sometimes when I read the posts in here by people tearing their hair out over restrictions it’s like the last 5 months didn’t even happen and we can just ignore the pandemic somehow and go back to normal. There’s now nowhere on this planet you can go where there are no restrictions in some form or another and every country is more or less the same. I’ve been training myself to accept the things I can’t change and it’s making all this easier to deal with.

we have no idea whats gonna happen next economically, a relatively quickly recovery is entirely possible, as you have said, but it equally may not be, we ve never experienced this before, so we ve no clue whats gonna happen next, we have major tensions growing geopolitically, and our financial sector isnt looking too hot, so this could go on for a while

walus

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I'd say a lot.

5.4m died this year from hunger alone, and counting

https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/people-and-poverty/hunger-and-obesity/how-many-people-die-from-hunger-each-year

Around 70m I’d say. 5.5m from pneumonia and tuberculosis alone. That includes 800k children dying from pneumonia every year.

snowcat

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8597815/Britains-gone-lockdown-la-la-land-says-DR-JOHN-LEE.html

Wanderer78

snowcat wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8597815/Britains-gone-lockdown-la-la-land-says-DR-JOHN-LEE.html

adblocker blocking it, thank god

MickeyLeari

MickeyLeari wrote: »

We are in a false comfort zone. If our debt to GDP ratio goes over 100% then the cost of borrowing will increase in the coming years when we seek to refinance the debt. Given we still have substantial debt from the financial crisis on the books (which was hidden by artificial GDP gains) we will find that the cost of servicing the debt will remain a drag on the economy.

We are also at risk if other economies start to rebound quicker and if we face other headwinds at the same time such as new International tax rules which damage our competitiveness and potentially MNEs scaling back on investment as well as active job cuts.

Unfortunately also that we have a very unstable Government which the way things are going will not last the year.

I know this is very pessimistic and that there is a glass half full argument there but calls for austerity policies last week will dent the economic stimulus plans. If many households are facing pay cuts then they will hold back on expenditures as we have seen already with new cars and no doubt will be felt in the home improvements sector.

Hopefully the construction/property investment sector will hold its nerve and continue to build but that is also subject matter to sentiment.

A lot of our legacy debt from the financial crisis has been and is continuously being refinanced at lower rate, effectively reducing the burden of servicing that debt on the Irish economy, without going near the overall debt level

facehugger99

walus wrote: »

Around 70m I’d say. 5.5m from pneumonia and tuberculosis alone. That includes 800k children dying from pneumonia every year.

Totally worth it if you can save one 90 year old from Covid.

dalyboy

dalyboy wrote: »

It’s not a big deal to YOU. It is for me. It’s uncomfortable and is a mandate now to wear one. In a “free” democratic society this is a complete outrage ,pandemic or no pandemic.

Lots of people find seatbelts uncomfortable. Are you "free" not to wear them if you choose with no consequences? Unless you take the ultra libertarian approach, a democracy is essentially a collective agreement to abide by certain rules for the greater benefit, rather then a guarantee of the freedom to do everything you choose. Democracy is both the agreed consent of the people to give up certain freedoms and the guarantee of the state to uphold other freedoms.
You do always have the freedom to find somewhere else with a set of rules more agreeable to yourself and willing to agree to take you.

Penfailed

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-53668619

It's an outrage. It's not happening anywhere else...oh.

Quantum Erasure

facehugger99 wrote: »

Totally worth it if you can save one 90 year old from Covid.

Whatisyourlogicalfallacy

dundalkfc10

Penfailed wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-53668619

It's an outrage. It's not happening anywhere else...oh.

Pubs that has smoking areas/beer gardens are open, they just can't sell drink inside without selling food but sure you knew this