Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

The Belly

But they are reopening the economy. There are now major parts of the economy back open again, albeit with certain restrictions in place. Retail is largely back, many companies are actively getting people back into offices.

Its the pubs and nightclubs that are the main issues at the moment, and based on their entire reason to exist it makes perfect sense to at least be conservative.

Well, we will see how consumer and business confidence has been damaged and is continuing to be damaged over the next few months.

Yeah, because that what was said. I remember distinctly that I said you were not allowed an opinion! Jebus.
The point was it is easy for everyone to have an opinion, far more difficult when that opinion leads to a decision which has consequences for people.

You are putting to much faith in our elected gov and their advisors. You seem to think they will suffer the consequences if they get this wrong. They wont suffer any.

Go back and look at other crises this country faced and those that made the decisions at the time and show me how their decisions turned out very badly for them when they got it very wrong.

You are advocating for a reopening. I was asking would you be prepared to accept the responsibility that comes with that decision? Would you be prepared, if things were to get worse, that you would be held personally responsible for the deaths of people or a second lockdown?

Yes I would stand over my decision if it was mine to make.

Because that is the reality of the decisions facing the doctors and the government. It sounds easy here, just reopen and see what happens, but their are real irroverable consequences to those decisions

There will be consequences one way or the other. I believe the decisions taken currently are going to make them far worse they they need to be.

Wanderer78

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

If anything this country loves is a good Inquest followed by more Inquests and nobody will ever face sanctions.

Well we could return to our past tradition of saying mass, to solving our social issues

Leroy42

The Belly wrote: »

There will be consequences one way or the other. I believe the decisions taken currently are going to make them far worse they they need to be.

And in that I don't disagree with you, I really don't know either way. Wil they be worse, I think that we need to look at what would happen if the decisions made were not made. Numbers are low now because of the decisions we made. The virus has not gone away and so it would seem hopeful in the extreme to think we should just reopen everything and not suffer. There was a time, only a few months ago, that no Covid was in Ireland. It did not take long for it to become a major issue.

A wrong step now could see us quickly going back in that direction.

What I do think is that decisions are being made based on the evidence and with the best of intentions. I do think they are looking at other countries and seeing the effects of bad decisions and trying to avoid the same fate.

I totally agree that there should have been more done in terms of cancer patients etc, not to mention the whole care homes disaster.

FintanMcluskey

Leroy42 wrote: »

Wil they be worse, I think that we need to look at what would happen if the decisions made were not made. Numbers are low now because of the decisions we made.

Oh yes the decisions were made to lower the numbers .



primarily emoloyment numbers

i_surge

MickeyLeari wrote: »

We are in a false comfort zone. If our debt to GDP ratio goes over 100% then the cost of borrowing will increase in the coming years when we seek to refinance the debt. Given we still have substantial debt from the financial crisis on the books (which was hidden by artificial GDP gains) we will find that the cost of servicing the debt will remain a drag on the economy.

We are also at risk if other economies start to rebound quicker and if we face other headwinds at the same time such as new International tax rules which damage our competitiveness and potentially MNEs scaling back on investment as well as active job cuts.

Unfortunately also that we have a very unstable Government which the way things are going will not last the year.

I know this is very pessimistic and that there is a glass half full argument there but calls for austerity policies last week will dent the economic stimulus plans. If many households are facing pay cuts then they will hold back on expenditures as we have seen already with new cars and no doubt will be felt in the home improvements sector.

Hopefully the construction/property investment sector will hold its nerve and continue to build but that is also subject matter to sentiment.

Ireland is a wealthy country. The standard of living is very high. We can afford to take a hit in a time of crisis to sort it out properly. There is loads of superflous government spending that can be trimmed.

Foolish thinking like this only causes more economic damage, the financially optimum strategy is total eradication by whatever means necessary creating a quick rebound. Partial unlocking, low compliance to logical rules and general mediocrity in the face of rising cases is how you will financially bleed for 2 to 5 years.

Either way, the USA is in trouble and thus so are we. Too much reliance on FDI will ruin us if we don't fix it.

i_surge

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

They already do. By a long way.

The Swedes may count themselves lucky they are lead by leader's, people who dont listen to horsesh#t.

Its a crisis like this that allows a populist government lead a prosperous nation down the drain

What I think people like you don't get...is that economic cost is global and unavoidable.

We need to accept it and roll with it. There is no economy without health.

The Belly

i_surge wrote: »

What I think people like you don't get...is that economic cost is global and unavoidable.

We need to accept it and roll with it. There is no economy without health.

Your making no sense.

The vast majority of people who die or struggle with recovery from covid are in their 80's some with underlying conditions.

They don't work and they don't drive the economy.

The section of the population that do are able to work and drive the economy but everyone is lumped with blanket restrictions.

i_surge

The Belly wrote: »

Your making no sense.

The vast majority of people who die or struggle with recovery from covid are in their 80's some with underlying conditions.

They don't work and they don't drive the economy.

The section of the population that do are able to work and drive the economy but everyone is lumped with blanket restrictions.

Stick with the narrative and ignorance you are suffering from so.

To rational people it is blindingly obvious why businesses are on half capacity.

i_surge

i_surge wrote: »

What I think people like you don't get...is that economic cost is global and unavoidable.

We need to accept it and roll with it. There is no economy without health.

Some level of cost is unavoidable.
How bad that cost is depends on our actions or lack thereof.

At the moment, we are doing very bad. Billions deficit each month.

With just 9 in hospital and very few deaths in the last few weeks, it is strange that we are still so restricted.

The Belly

i_surge wrote: »

Stick with the narrative and ignorance you are suffering from so.

To rational people it is blindingly obvious why businesses are on half capacity.

And as you claim to be a rational person spell out why they are and what benefit it is doing both for flatten the curve which is done stopping our health services for being over whelmed which never happended or for the economy as a whole.

i_surge

The Belly wrote: »

And as you claim to be a rational person spell out why they are and what benefit it is doing both for flatten the curve which is done stopping our health services for being over whelmed which never happended or for the economy as a whole.

You seem to have a simplistic view that if put people back to work it will all be ok. Businesses need customers to provide jobs.

The average consumer is not consuming as they would have before because they don't want to take an unnecessary risk.

The rest is obvious.

i_surge

Deleted User wrote: »

Some level of cost is unavoidable.
How bad that cost is depends on our actions or lack thereof.

At the moment, we are doing very bad. Billions deficit each month.

With just 9 in hospital and very few deaths in the last few weeks, it is strange that we are still so restricted.

It is only strange when you think linearly about an exponential thing. Other countries have tried and failed at reopening. It is complicated.

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/show-us-the-evidence-that-pubs-spread-covid-19-says-government-td-1.4323819

A positive article for a change with John Lahart, FF TD for Dublin South-west rightly questioning the rationale for keeping pubs closed when, factually, pubs in Ireland have been associated with 0 covid cases. NPHET's advice to keep them closed cited a "paper to NPHET" as the international evidence of such a link. Very dubious to not provide this paper and in any event, as I said, 0 cases in Ireland associated with pubs being opened.

This quote sums up the current situation;

“The house party alternative is already emerging, with no regard for any of the HSE and Nphet guidelines. No one wants a second lock-down. Publicans need to be given good reason why they cannot be trusted to open safely. As a consequence of non-compliance, they face the removal of their licence and a file being sent to the DPP.”

To be fair, a file being set to the DPP means sweet f-all as the DPP have zero grounds to prosecute such publicans. The potential punishment comes at licence renewal time.

The Belly

the bottom of the article

Asked about the decision to keep pubs closed at the present time, Mr Donnelly said this week that the evidence internationally shows that when countries open up the pubs, Covid cases increase.

If that's the case we can expect the schools to open and shut again with a week or two.

vid36

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/show-us-the-evidence-that-pubs-spread-covid-19-says-government-td-1.4323819

A positive article for a change with John Lahart, FF TD for Dublin South-west rightly questioning the rationale for keeping pubs closed when, factually, pubs in Ireland have been associated with 0 covid cases. NPHET's advice to keep them closed cited a "paper to NPHET" as the international evidence of such a link. Very dubious to not provide this paper and in any event, as I said, 0 cases in Ireland associated with pubs being opened.

This quote sums up the current situation;



To be fair, a file being set to the DPP means sweet f-all as the DPP have zero grounds to prosecute such publicans. The potential punishment comes at licence renewal time.

There were 3 pub clusters in early March one from Westmeath.

Assetbacked

vid36 wrote: »

There were 3 pub clusters in early March one from Westmeath.

Sorry, yes I had forgotten. That was prior to any restrictions though wasn't it?

MickeyLeari

Assetbacked wrote: »

Sorry, yes I had forgotten. That was prior to any restrictions though wasn't it?

But three in the whole country is not a lot. I have no doubt that pre March there probably was pub transmissions but a whole lot of people were in pubs in that period (Jan to March) and did not catch the virus.

i_surge

MickeyLeari wrote: »

But three in the whole country is not a lot. I have no doubt that pre March there probably was pub transmissions but a whole lot of people were in pubs in that period (Jan to March) and did not catch the virus.

This feels like a comedy. Of course they weren't associated with cases when they were closed.

Spot the Vintners lobby and barflies.

average_runner

North pauses the reopening of pubs till sept

MickeyLeari

i_surge wrote: »

This feels like a comedy. Of course they weren't associated with cases when they were closed.

Spot the Vintners lobby and barflies.

I have not been In a pub or restaurant in Ireland since early March. If establishments can open with sufficient safeguards (And enforcement) then let them. Other countries have successfully done this.

I understand the Govt point of view but we will have to find a way to live with this. But as others have said they can now just get into the food game and open up. Maybe more will rethink their business models. But I do fear for the winter.

i_surge

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I understand the Govt point of view but we will have to find a way to live with this.

No...we need to find a way to live WITHOUT it. Anything else is half baked false optimism that only makes recovery harder and forces us to live a half life for longer than needed.

Spanish Eyes

Drink only pubs will not be open again until Gov says it's ok. That's it, finito, all the moaning and debate on here won't change that. Doesn't matter whether you agree or disagree with the approach it is what it is now.

Such pubs will not reopen until the schools get back IMV.

average_runner

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Drink only pubs will not be open again until Gov says it's ok. That's it, finito, all the moaning and debate on here won't change that. Doesn't matter whether you agree or disagree with the approach it is what it is now.

Such pubs will not reopen until the schools get back IMV.

And if you really want a drink, just go to a pub that is open.

is_that_so

I see pub openings are "paused" until September 1 up north.

Spanish Eyes

average_runner wrote: »

And if you really want a drink, just go to a pub that is open.

Indeed, nothing stopping anyone from going to a pub and having a few drinks with a 9euro meal. But seems to me that moaning and being against everything is the attitude du jour on here.

I totally get the loss of business for non food pubs and the precariousness of the barpeople's jobs though. But that's the Gov instruction now.

I really think they want to get rid of drink only pubs and be more Continental style.

McDowell was ahead of his time re the cafe bars back in the day, but guess who objected and succeeded?

Hmmm.

Penfailed

Schools in the north to open with relaxed social distancing. They're recommending that they try as much as is possible to maintain as much social distancing as they can for pupils but they aren't setting one metre or two metre standards. Teachers will still have to distance.
Pubs that don't serve food have been pushed back and have been given an indicative date of the 1st of September.
Masks are going to be mandatory in shops from Monday.

MadYaker

"We should open the pubs because they haven't been associated with any covid cases" :pac: how could they be they been closed since March! I'm hopeful that schools opening won't cause huge problems and pubs will get the nod by the end of september.

Diabhalta

CruelSummer

i_surge wrote: »

No...we need to find a way to live WITHOUT it. Anything else is half baked false optimism that only makes recovery harder and forces us to live a half life for longer than needed.

This idea of us magically achieving zero Covid quickly with no ramifications is complete and utter nonsense. How is is possible that people take such suggestions seriously...
1. Ireland is highly dependent on FDI to have a functioning economy, we cannot close for an indefinite lockdown to attempt to reach zero Covid AGAIN as it cost too much the first time and went on for weeks too long.
2. We share an open border with NI and the U.K. and before you reply with an ‘all Ireland approach’ answer, we all know Arlene & co will only cooperate to a degree. They will not close themselves off to the the U.K. and their ‘mainland’ and we have no power or control over that.
3. Do you suggest setting up border checkpoints with NI, what about people crossing fields? To achieve zero Covid, there can be zero movement.
4. We share a common travel area with the U.K. - there are planes, boats and ferries going continuously between both islands. It is of vital economic importance, how do you propose we shut that down and pay the bills.
5. How do we deny Irish citizens the right to travel within the EU to countries with safe levels of Covid, and still go to Brussels looking for bailouts acting like we are still a member of the EU when in actual fact we’ve followed an isolationist policy against the EU & Schengen zone (which is more important than ever following Brexit).
5. How do we provide employment, PUP, health care, education, heck run an economy on a daily basis if it is effectively shut down indefinitely until the magical zero number is achieved. What then? What about new cases and clusters following this? Who pays our bills, our bailout? Who provides jobs to the thousands lost trying to achieve zero cases?
6. Why do you think no country in Europe is pursuing New Zealand’s approach, perhaps they’re not an island at least 4 hours flight from the nearest sparsely populated country.

Patrick2010

Pubs and other establishments will open when Ronan Glynn and Nephet say so, they’re running the country not Michael Martin