Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

Cluedo Monopoly

Wet in Galway today. I have to say the last several days of cold and dry weather were lovely. Even the fog was lovely.

Gonzo

back to normal service here in Meath, cloudy, drizzly and Atlantic mucky day.

nacho libre

Based on the latest model runs it looks like La Nina is beginning to exert its influence, with the influence of the Russian high declining. Hopefully it's wrong, but it has to be said the EC46 was not in agreement with some of the earlier promising GFS runs for Christmas week.

Oscar Bravo

Dark and murky here in Castlebar

Gonzo

horrible day in Meath, wet since this morning but nothing too heavy. Feeling chilly despite the milder temperatures compared to recently.

The Atlantic is back for the time being with a mixture of cool and mild interludes over the next 10 to 14 days. Hopefully during this time we will see much more interesting developments for Christmas day and beyond to New Year's Day.


edit: GFS updated again and it's another swing towards mild unfortunately.

SleetAndSnow

Awful evening in Cork City. Very heavy rain

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

horrible day in Meath, wet since this morning but nothing too heavy. Feeling chilly despite the milder temperatures compared to recently.

Similar here all day, and feels colder now than it did during the recent foggy/frosty spell.

Give me a raging, active, lightning fueled Atlantic over this current drab, pointless garbage any day.

Artane2002

the fog is back in Dublin 5.

highdef

Artane2002 wrote: »

the fog is back in Dublin 5.

As it is also in North Kildare.

icesnowfrost

If things are to be believed. Each run just keeps looking better. I’m still not convinced yet as how many times have the models let us down but there’s so much potential showing up for Christmas Day snow.

Gonzo

icesnowfrost wrote: »

If things are to be believed. Each run just keeps looking better. I’m still not convinced yet as how many times have the models let us down but there’s so much potential showing up for Christmas Day snow.

that's Louth in Lincolnshire along the east coast of England, not County Louth in Ireland. At the moment we can't even begin to predict what Christmas Day will be like with so many swings from one run to another. Hopefully next week we will start to see a more reliable pattern for Christmas Eve/Day.

lostweekend3

icesnowfrost wrote: »

If things are to be believed. Each run just keeps looking better. I’m still not convinced yet as how many times have the models let us down but there’s so much potential showing up for Christmas Day snow.

Yet the latest GFS op run shows the hairdryer southerlies for Christmas??? Know our luck that’s what we’ll get even though there’s likely to be a massive pool of cold air to our north and east. Beyond laughable.

Gonzo

icesnowfrost wrote: »

If things are to be believed. Each run just keeps looking better. I’m still not convinced yet as how many times have the models let us down but there’s so much potential showing up for Christmas Day snow.

In order to get the forecast for Louth, you can type in Dundalk or Drogheda rather than the county of Louth.



Not that much real cold on offer with this mornings ensembles, there is just one run going into the freezer for the Christmas period, the others are everything inbetween standard cold and very mild.

Squeaksoutloud

We seem to follow a very similar December pattern these past few years. An early cold spell around the first week and gets you in a festive mood then mild Atlantic driven weather right through to New Year with only the odd colder day. Anyone else notice this? Then the cold doesn't arrive until March when we want the Spring weather to be arriving!

Seems to be the major pattern for the last 5 years maybe.

icesnowfrost

Lol silly mistake on my behalf with location but yeah it’s up and down but still good signs. See how the rest of the GFS runs play out. Blocking trying to take hold. It’s way better reading than last year at this time that’s for sure.

Gonzo wrote: »

In order to get the forecast for Louth, you can type in Dundalk or Drogheda rather than the county of Louth.



Not that much real cold on offer with this mornings ensembles, there is just one run going into the freezer for the Christmas period, the others are everything inbetween standard cold and very mild.

Rock Lesnar

Real heavy rain here now in Meath, and the sky has an orange glow to it

Kutebride

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Real heavy rain here now in Meath, and the sky has an orange glow to it

Snap, just posted likewise on the Convection page in error. Should have been over here.

Rock Lesnar

Kutebride wrote: »

Snap, just posted likewise on the Convection page in error. Should have been over here.

Back to a dark sky now, that was unusual

Oneiric 3

Squeaksoutloud wrote: »

We seem to follow a very similar December pattern these past few years. An early cold spell around the first week and gets you in a festive mood then mild Atlantic driven weather right through to New Year with only the odd colder day. Anyone else notice this? Then the cold doesn't arrive until March when we want the Spring weather to be arriving!

Seems to be the major pattern for the last 5 years maybe.

This chart shows the average max temp for each 7 day running period for the last quart of the year for the period 2011-2019 (red line. Blue is just this year to compare) on a national level. We see that overall, there is a gradual decline in temps between October and late November, before they bottom out during early December, and if anything, begins to show a small rise thereafter.


(data is from Met Eireann)

Gonzo

pouring rain here in Meath. The next 10 days are starting to look quite unsettled with no shortage of rain and showers in from the Atlantic. The Atlantic looks to be well and truly back in charge in the run up to Christmas.

daniel_t1409

Gonzo wrote: »

pouring rain here in Meath. The next 10 days are starting to look quite unsettled with no shortage of rain and showers in from the Atlantic. The Atlantic looks to be well and truly back in charge in the run up to Christmas.

What's new :rolleyes:

Is christmas period itself a write-off?

Goldfinch8

We had a nice orange glow ourselves in the morning sky here in Mayo today. There was a lovely splash of colour in the eastern sky around sunrise. It did not last long however as the grey murk soon rolled in to give a damp and dreary December day. Still raining on and off out there at present. 9c.

lostweekend3

I’d actually love another cold, frosty, foggy period over Christmas like the one we just had a few days ago. At least it would feel seasonal. If no snow, then that is second best for me.

Cluedo Monopoly

In 12 days the days start to get longer.

daniel_t1409

Overwritten.

highdef

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

Ugh, I hate the long evenings in the summer. Just feels weird for it to be 22:00 and still bright outside. Don't mind the early mornings though, love getting up early to watch sunrise .

Oh God, the thoughts of being up at 5am to watch sunrise doesn't sound too enticing, unless I'm still up from the night before. Nice weather in the summer combined with late sunsets is heaven and is literally the only thing that has kept me from moving to the likes of southern france or italy, where summer sunsets are a fair bit earlier especially in southern italy.

sdanseo

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

Ugh, I hate the long evenings in the summer. Just feels weird for it to be 22:00 and still bright outside. Don't mind the early mornings though, love getting up early to watch sunrise .

Complete opposite here. There's little more depressing than looking out the window at 4pm and it being almost dark. I tend to be a bit of a night owl so not unusual for me to get up at 12-1 on weekends and you've only 2 hours of actual daylight left. Vitamin D supplements ftw.

It is a nice novelty around Christmas with the lights, but if I could have 16-hour days year round, I'd take them.

DellyBelly

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

What's new :rolleyes:

Is christmas period itself a write-off?

IT looks like we are going to be lucky over Christmas although that it is with a caveat this far out. Think temps will be a bit higher than normal so will be nice to get out for a walk etc.. Hopefully the outlook remains that way

Gonzo

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

What's new :rolleyes:

Is christmas period itself a write-off?

Chistmas is not a write off yet as it is still 2 weeks away and plenty can change over the next week, however the charts have become more uneventful with each run and we have a fairly average to mild Atlantic setup between now and the 21st of December. Perhaps over time the jet will dip futher southwards to allow us into the colder air nearer to Christmas. For now all is still to play for but so far the mild and Atlantic is winning despite the blocking that is set up and forecast to strength over the next week with an increasingly negative NAO and AO.





We also have a warming taking place that looks to fall just short of a SSW, this may or may not affect us come January, only time will tell. it appears this warming won't be enough to completely split the PV, it will stretch it somewhat and maybe displace it further south so not really a proper SSW.



Compared to last winter and the winter before that at least we have a few building blocks in place but none of it looks convincing enough to summon a beast in time for Christmas or the run up to the New Year.

daniel_t1409

highdef wrote: »

Oh God, the thoughts of being up at 5am to watch sunrise doesn't sound too enticing,

Nah i like doing it.