Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

circadian

Aye was 5 degrees here in D9 at about 7am, not a spot of frost or ice to be seen.

Lucreto

1C in Naas, black ice everywhere but not as bad as yesterday.

Nqp15hhu

Current image of the snow on the Sperrin Mountains, looking lovely.


We didn’t get a frost either but it did briefly fall below freezing for two hours before sunrise.

It should be much colder tonight if the cloud stays away.

BLIZZARD7

Hail shower - D14

circadian

Unexpected hail shower here in D9, dark skies above and its a fairly heavy shower.

JDD

So lads, with my kids off school, what are the chances we'll get snow over the next week? It'd be so brilliant for them if it did happen.

We're Dublin 18, quite high up near Stepaside.

Danno

Brief hail shower in southern Laois. Tiny hail too! Overnight low -0.5c, currently +1.6c/0.6cDP.

JDD

JDD wrote: »

So lads, with my kids off school, what are the chances we'll get snow over the next week? It'd be so brilliant for them if it did happen.

We're Dublin 18, quite high up near Stepaside.

Up there,thursday/Friday I'd say
Stay tuned

JDD

AuntySnow wrote: »

Up there,thursday/Friday I'd say
Stay tuned

Squeeeeeeeeeeee

lawred2

JDD wrote: »

So lads, with my kids off school, what are the chances we'll get snow over the next week? It'd be so brilliant for them if it did happen.

We're Dublin 18, quite high up near Stepaside.

only drawback is that no doubt you won't have it all to yourself and the kids

downwiththatsor

Euro4 going for lying snow Thursday morning but always bullish

JDD

lawred2 wrote: »

only drawback is that no doubt you won't have it all to yourself and the kids

True, but we have a new park at the back of our estate that has a massive field. Plenty of room for all if snow actually lands.

I think I may be more excited about this than the kids would be. I'm not going to tell them in case no snow actually falls.

JDD

JDD wrote: »

True, but we have a new park at the back of our estate that has a massive field. Plenty of room for all if snow actually lands.

I think I may be more excited about this than the kids would be. I'm not going to tell them in case no snow actually falls.

Yeah there is that risk
Model guidance varies even at that range
The parameters are there,stay tuned for the precipitation
You are far enough inland and near enough to three rock for Irish sea stuff Friday if any to be white
Also a chance with stuff on both days from the north/northwest

Latest modeling says no to the precipitation unfortunately but thats not cast in stone
Also the ecm is a bit too warm
Gfs is OK
Talking your area only

ffarrell7

This is one of the first times where we have had an east to northeast wind blowing in winter yet little or no snow away from high ground in the East.
Normally in Dublin 15 away from the coast we get quite a low of falling snow with this set up. Apart from a dusting on New Years eve we have had only hail, rain and Sleet.


I wonder why that is??

The Dublin mountains are doing well but elsewhere is disappointing.

DOCARCH

ffarrell7 wrote: »

This is one of the first times where we have had an east to northeast wind blowing in winter yet little or no snow away from high ground in the East.
Normally in Dublin 15 away from the coast we get quite a low of falling snow with this set up. Apart from a dusting on New Years eve we have had only hail, rain and Sleet.


I wonder why that is??

I would suggest as pressure is relatively high and the airmass is just not quite cold enough.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

I would suggest as pressure is relatively high and the airmass is just not quite cold enough.

Having lived in Dublin in the 80s and home in Arklow, this is not the first time,it has happened many times
The air from the east is only coming from Denmark at best its not cold enough
Reason is the Russian siberian high has the cold trap door closed
To funnel enough cold in quick you need a feed from central/northern Scandinavia at the moment and thats not happening or going to this week or next
It might if the effects of the strat warm send a lobe or two of pv into Scandinavia and Europe and we have a Greenland Iceland high
All theoretical

daniel_t1409

A cold, wet day here in wexford. That weird type where it's sunny and raining at the same time.

rbelmc

just an update on the weather in Sweden
proper winter arrived here a few days ago in the south
all the lakes are starting to freeze over and the temperature is dropping each day
last night was the coldest night of the winter so far-it was down to minus 29 in a place called Sveg
The Swedish weather service are warning of extreme cold due from next week with temperatures down to minus 30 in places
that could augur well for Ireland if the weather is coming from the East or North East

pad199207

Status Yellow - Low Temperature/Ice warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford and Clare

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very cold tonight with temperatures falling to between -2 and -5 degrees, possibly colder locally, with a widespread severe frost. Icy patches may form on untreated surfaces. Freezing temperatures will persist well into the day on Wednesday.

Valid: 18:00 Tuesday 05/01/2021 to 10:00 Wednesday 06/01/2021

Issued: 13:00 Tuesday 05/01/2021

Updated: 13:22 Tuesday 05/01/2021

Zogabomb

Met Eireann's first monthly forecast doesn't look good for cold fans over the next 4 weeks, probably based on ECM Monthly.

Week 1 (Friday 08 January to Thursday 14 January)

High pressure is expected to influence Ireland’s weather during this week. A north or northeast air-flow looks set to dominate early in the period before the air-flow becomes variable as high pressure builds in over the country. Mean air temperatures are expected to be below average with a risk of frost, ice and some wintry precipitation. However, it looks set to turn a little less cold later in the period. Soil temperatures are expected to run below the seasonal-norm. As high pressure will be the dominant feature of the weather, is expected to be drier than normal for early to mid-January with only small amounts of rainfall forecast.

Week 2 (Friday 15 January to Thursday 21 January)

Forecast confidence declines in week 2 but there is an indication that weather conditions will turn more unsettled. High pressure is forecast to decline with some frontal systems moving through. Mean air temperatures are expected to be near-average for January with a reduced risk of frost and ice as compared to previous weeks. Rainfall totals are expected to be higher than in previous weeks with rainfall amounts forecast to be around average for mid-Winter, possibly higher than average in parts of the south.

Week 3 (Friday 22 January to Thursday 28 January)

By late January, there is lower confidence in the forecast but there is a signal for weather conditions to remain fairly unsettled with low pressure situated close to Ireland. Mean air temperatures are expected to be above average with a reduced risk of frost and ice as compared to the climatological average. As low pressure will quite dominant with frontal troughs nearby, it looks set to be wetter than average across most of the country. Forecast confidence falls lower by the end of the period but it looks set to stay rather unsettled.

Week 4 (Friday 29 January to Thursday 04 February)

By forecast week 4 confidence is much lower. However, there is a trend towards unsettled weather with low pressure expected to be positioned nearby Ireland. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be slightly above average for the time of year across much of the country whilst rainfall totals are projected to be above average.

Villain

A new monthly forecast has been launched by Met Eireann today. Interesting time to start these and to go for milder than average temperatures and above average rainfall with SSW underway!

See forecast via https://met.ie/forecasts/monthly-forecast

Nqp15hhu

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Euro4 going for lying snow Thursday morning but always bullish

Bit weird to have that gap in NI when we are most likely to see snow.

Nqp15hhu

ffarrell7 wrote: »

This is one of the first times where we have had an east to northeast wind blowing in winter yet little or no snow away from high ground in the East.
Normally in Dublin 15 away from the coast we get quite a low of falling snow with this set up. Apart from a dusting on New Years eve we have had only hail, rain and Sleet.


I wonder why that is??

The Dublin mountains are doing well but elsewhere is disappointing.

I have noticed that there is a steep lapse rate. It is subzero at 500 metres but a rise of 1c per 100 metres at least. The -8c 850hPa isn’t making it colder.

Nqp15hhu

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Yellow - Low Temperature/Ice warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford and Clare

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very cold tonight with temperatures falling to between -2 and -5 degrees, possibly colder locally, with a widespread severe frost. Icy patches may form on untreated surfaces. Freezing temperatures will persist well into the day on Wednesday.

Valid: 18:00 Tuesday 05/01/2021 to 10:00 Wednesday 06/01/2021

Issued: 13:00 Tuesday 05/01/2021

Updated: 13:22 Tuesday 05/01/2021

I imagine it could get down to -5c if the cloud stays away.

Cluedo Monopoly

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Bit weird to have that gap in NI when we are most likely to see snow.

Do large lakes like Lough Neagh have an impact on snowfall? I have seen gaps like that around Lough Corrib/Mask too in the past.

Nqp15hhu

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Do large lakes like Lough Neagh have an impact on snowfall? I have seen gaps like that around Lough Corrib/Mask too in the past.

Yes in the side where the wind is coming from. But Lough Neagh is south of that gap.

I have a feeling the snow is going to be restricted ted to Central/NE Donegal. This happened on a similar front before.

I’m not sure why, as they are closer to the Atlantic and warmer air.

Oneiric 3

Sunny here. However, like yesterday, I see cloud banks on the eastern horizon, so hopefully, like yesterday, they'll move in just in time for sundown and prevent temperatures falling below freezing yet again.

Nqp15hhu

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Sunny here. However, like yesterday, I see cloud banks on the eastern horizon, so hopefully, like yesterday, they'll move in just in time for sundown and prevent temperatures falling below freezing yet again.

Happened here too.. and it is cloudy now.. managed to get below freezing just before sunrise.

But I would like a nice hard frost tonight.

Arduach

Zogabomb wrote: »

Met Eireann's first monthly forecast doesn't look good for cold fans over the next 4 weeks, probably based on ECM Monthly.

Week 1 (Friday 08 January to Thursday 14 January)

High pressure is expected to influence Ireland’s weather during this week. A north or northeast air-flow looks set to dominate early in the period before the air-flow becomes variable as high pressure builds in over the country. Mean air temperatures are expected to be below average with a risk of frost, ice and some wintry precipitation. However, it looks set to turn a little less cold later in the period. Soil temperatures are expected to run below the seasonal-norm. As high pressure will be the dominant feature of the weather, is expected to be drier than normal for early to mid-January with only small amounts of rainfall forecast.

Week 2 (Friday 15 January to Thursday 21 January)

Forecast confidence declines in week 2 but there is an indication that weather conditions will turn more unsettled. High pressure is forecast to decline with some frontal systems moving through. Mean air temperatures are expected to be near-average for January with a reduced risk of frost and ice as compared to previous weeks. Rainfall totals are expected to be higher than in previous weeks with rainfall amounts forecast to be around average for mid-Winter, possibly higher than average in parts of the south.

Week 3 (Friday 22 January to Thursday 28 January)

By late January, there is lower confidence in the forecast but there is a signal for weather conditions to remain fairly unsettled with low pressure situated close to Ireland. Mean air temperatures are expected to be above average with a reduced risk of frost and ice as compared to the climatological average. As low pressure will quite dominant with frontal troughs nearby, it looks set to be wetter than average across most of the country. Forecast confidence falls lower by the end of the period but it looks set to stay rather unsettled.

Week 4 (Friday 29 January to Thursday 04 February)

By forecast week 4 confidence is much lower. However, there is a trend towards unsettled weather with low pressure expected to be positioned nearby Ireland. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be slightly above average for the time of year across much of the country whilst rainfall totals are projected to be above average.

Let's wish them a poor start with their new venture (with that forecast)

nacho libre

rbelmc wrote: »

just an update on the weather in Sweden
proper winter arrived here a few days ago in the south
all the lakes are starting to freeze over and the temperature is dropping each day
last night was the coldest night of the winter so far-it was down to minus 29 in a place called Sveg
The Swedish weather service are warning of extreme cold due from next week with temperatures down to minus 30 in places
that could augur well for Ireland if the weather is coming from the East or North East

It sounds to me like, reading Met Eireann's new monthly forecast and the latest UK Met Office long range forecast, that the la nina signal is going to override the SSW event at least for us, which may mean we will finally have a cold pool to our east,but parts of the North East of England will be the frontal boundary between the very cold airmass and milder Atlantic weather in Ireland. We could be looking on while some places over there get decent snowfall. The only crumb of comfort I take is the Met Eireann disclaimer about the reliability of foreasting beyond 10 days, which you hope would be even more chaotic in an ongoing SSW.